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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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User 463088

Banned
Trump wins his first state! Israel.

According to a survey of 1,140 U.S. citizens living in Israel, most of whom have mailed in absentee ballots, Trump is ahead of Hillary Clinton by 49 percent to 44 percent.
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FUCK.

Typically among this cohort — American Jews living in Israel, many of whom tend to be more religious — the Republican nominee captures around 75 percent of the vote, he said, noting that was the case for John McCain and Mitt Romney.
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Oh. Oh, honey.
 
D

DrMungo

Member
SlimySnake said:
yeah, it seems to me that there are some very pissed off republicans in the FBI who want to lock her up. thankfully the DoJ head is a democrat and they will never let any indictments happen. Comey will get replaced in the next few weeks with a dem as well so it wont even get out of the FBI.
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My (without any evidence) take on this: There is a faction of the FBI that was working for years to try to pin down not only Hillary but the Clintons. After it looked like there was no evidence for the emails, and she was leading by large margins, some lost their shit and started to leak materials.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
That WBUR poll is slightly concerning, but also there is going to be no state outside of Utah where Clinton + Trump < 80, so it's sort of moot. There's plenty of evidence of Johnson and Stein fading (including in NH) and WBUR has always seemed to over-pronounce their numbers.
 
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iRAWRasaurus

Banned
I feel stress out as fuck out that Trump appears to be approving, according five thirty eight and election betting odds. I normally don't pay that much attention to the media. It makes me sad, Ohio, suddenly went to Trump. I voted for Clinton in Ohio.

Of course, I been only keeping my eye on those sites and a few others. So I dont know how reliable they are.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
whyamihere said:
That WBUR poll is slightly concerning, but also there is going to be no state outside of Utah where Clinton + Trump < 80, so it's sort of moot. There's plenty of evidence of Johnson and Stein fading (including in NH) and WBUR has always seemed to over-pronounce their numbers.
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I'm a complete WBUR junkie-listen to Here and Now every day-but their last poll was iffy and this one is even noisier.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Tom Bonier &#8207;@tbonier 2h2 hours ago
OH: Cuyahoga and Franklin continue to surge back to '12 levels. Chart shows share of EV/AV relative to '12 final share from 10/20 to 11/2.
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The gap between early voting and public polling is the most interesting story of the election right now. Early voting in two key Dem counties in Ohio has almost caught up with 2012 when most people here think its Trump's to lose

CwVgIFwXgAA1m6z.png
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
Smiles and Cries said:
why does it seem like CNN and other media love to report this as a very close race or Trump ahead in some cases?
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Ratings. Reports of a tightening race or the other candidate getting ahead will make a person tune in for more information, telling them that things are still the same will make them tune out.

EDIT: Adding to this, if the situation were reversed and it was Hillary behind most of the time, they'd report it the same way with her "leading" or "closing the gap."
 
B

BiggNife

Member
iRAWRasaurus said:
I feel stress out as fuck out that Trump appears to be approving, according five thirty eight and election betting odds. I normally don't pay that much attention to the media. It makes me sad, Ohio, suddenly went to Trump. I voted for Clinton in Ohio.

Of course, I been only keeping my eye on those sites and a few others. So I dont know how reliable they are.
Click to expand...

Betting odds are a shitty metric and 538's model has been notoriously volatile. Every other prediction model has Hillary at a 80% or more chance of winning. Princeton's model has her at almost 100%.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Look at "how other forecasts compare" on the middle of the page.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
The gap between early voting and public polling is the most interesting story of the election right now.
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This. Urban EV returns are through the roof this week across almost all of the battleground state that have early voting.
 
K

kadotsu

Banned
Smiles and Cries said:
why does it seem like CNN and other media love to report this as a very close race or Trump ahead in some cases?
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You can make up many explanations. Suspense in the race leads to better viewership, they don't want to be involved in the alt-right aftermath that will go in on all the Lügenpresse with rigged polls or stupidity.
 
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BiggNife

Member
Smiles and Cries said:
why does it seem like CNN and other media love to report this as a very close race or Trump ahead in some cases?
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Because a tight race ensures higher ratings?

No one is going to bother with watching CNN if a Clinton win looks inevitable.

It's the same reason why every media outlet was harping on Romney's "victory" in the first debate in 2012.
 
S

SexyFish

Banned
Smiles and Cries said:
why does it seem like CNN and other media love to report this as a very close race or Trump ahead in some cases?
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I'm a news network. I like people watching me so I get lots of monies. I have a very big election coming up and would like everyone to watch me.

Option 1: The race is probably going to be a blowout. Clinton will win and it could be an early night.

Option 2: DEAD HEAT DEAD HEAT DEAD HEAT

Option 2 gets more people watching, sadly.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/u...count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html?_r=0

Really good article by Good Nate about how these "Missing White Voters" aren't going to help Trump.

Newly registered voters who aren’t affiliated with a major party lean to Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Trump by 42 percent to 21 percent; Gary Johnson runs a close third, with 20 percent. They may not improve the Democratic registration edge in these states, but they could contribute to Mrs. Clinton’s margin on Election Day.
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Mrs. Clinton’s lead among newly registered voters isn’t simply about an influx of voters who were previously ineligible, either. She leads among every age group of new voters, giving her a similar margin of 45 to 33 among newly registered voters who weren’t eligible in 2012.
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J

jmdajr

Member
I hope this turns out like the CM Punk fight.

We all knew Punk had no chance, but we made ourselves believe he did because why would we watch otherwise.

It's like how I convince myself that the Texans can beat Elite teams in the NFL. The talent just doesn't exist, but I can't go into the game thinking it's just going to be a butt whooping.

"If we can get 6 turnovers, we can win this!"
 
I

iRAWRasaurus

Banned
BiggNife said:
Betting odds are a shitty metric and 538's model has been notoriously volatile. Every other prediction model has Hillary at a 80% or more chance of winning. Princeton's model has her at almost 100%.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Look at "how other forecasts compare" on the middle of the page.
Click to expand...

Ahh thanks for the info. I knew about that site cause someone linked it here. But besides that, I am way out of the loop when it comes to politics (besides clinton and trump)
 
T

Tall4Life

Member
I don't know, didn't Trump say that Wikileaks was going to leak something yesterday and nothing happened? I wouldn't really believe these vague promises of "look we have the greatest oppo coming just you see"
 
N

nature boy

Member
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