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[BenjaminBirdie]

Obama going Trump on the press about not calling out Senators for moving the Supreme Court nominee goalposts.

 

[Slayven]

2008 was the high water mark for voter participation.

Passing the 7 day total in four days already says "landslide."

Polls don't matter anymore. EV data has republicans getting destroyed everywhere and this will not be close.

Willing to bet your avatar on that?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

What's up with Brett Baier talking about a likely indictment for the Clinton Foundation? This is real?

This is why they do it. This right here is why they do it and they know there are zero repercussions for it with 4 days left. Just throw out weakly sourced inflammatory claims and hope it sticks.

The mythical indictment will never come but if it helped Trump or other Republicans win then it did the job.

 

[Manmademan]

I don't think it's happening. Only way it does is if conservative turn out is down. I do believe that democrat turn out in Texas will be significantly up due to people from states like Cali and New York coming into the state (and young professionals from all over flooding the cities in general) (and the influx of international immigrants in Texas), but I don't think it would be enough to offset the large existing voter base, once again, unless they don't show up in the same margins due to Trump.

Hillary doesn't need Texas.

This is important because democratic turnout breaking records means dems will be flipping house seats, as well as making gains at the state and local level.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

What's up with Brett Baier talking about a likely indictment for the Clinton Foundation? This is real?

When "Anonymous sources close to the investigation" spring up on FOX, you can be assured that it's BS. Everyone else whipping the story is relying on that innuendo from FOX as their source.

Back during the first Clinton presidency, James Carville used to talk about what he called, in his folksy way, The Puke Funnel. This was his way of describing how fanciful tales of Arkansas criminality would begin life as items buried in the wild kingdom of the British tabloids. This enabled American tabloids to quote the British tabloids, which would enable more respectable outfits to "cover the controversy," at which point everyone was off to the races.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a47946/vince-foster-conspiracy-theories-clintons/

 

[Fragamemnon]

#FLORIDA, Among Early/Absentee Vote:
Clinton 53% (+9)
Trump 44%

orange turd getting massacred among NPAs in this poll. Might be sample of course but it fits the general prediction of NPA makeup in the state.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

The problem is both stats are unreliable, especially early voting.

I think the early voting is very telling as I think far more independents will vote for Clinton and a greater percentage of Reps will switch to Dem than vice versus this election. Which that one report of Florida early voting has already proven to an extent with 28% of republicans voting for Clinton. Trump has done nothing to widen the base and IMO condensed and galvanized the existing one.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I really hope the Obama interview on Real Time this week is worth the 8 year wait.

And I hope BM actually asks some serious policy questions.

 

[Box of Kittens]

What's the MoE on a sub-sect like educational attainment?

The general rule is that margin of error is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. Perhaps it's more intuitive to say a sub-sample of 25% of the full sample will have double the margin of error.

For the WMUR poll, roughly 63% of those surveyed had college degrees. This works out to a MoE on the subsample of roughly 5%.

 

[Grief.exe]

So even if Texas stays red, the gap is going to be shrunk to presumably unnerving levels for the GOP? At the least the seeds have been planted for a blue Texas in the near future.

Reduced Republican enthusiasm will also cause some of these gerrymandered House districts to flip in the metro areas.

 

[Iolo]

Note to self: drinking copious amounts of coffee and viewing 538 can be dangerous.

Taking pseudoephedrine and watching the Cubs game was no picnic either, as I found.

 

[Manmademan]

Willing to bet your avatar on that?

Yup.

 

[nature boy]

I'll take 2 on the right, tnx

 

[Y2Kev]

I mean doesn't that imply like a bigger than +10 margin with NPA? That's what I'm banking on. And dumboshits need to convert these Crab acolytes to democrats.

 

[Grief.exe]

Damn Obama is such a fucking great speaker. OMG, he's so good. He'd have won a third term easily I think.

And Michelle is better.

 

[Slayven]

Yup.

What is Landslide territory?

And if she doesn't fall with in it, you have to rock a Bandit Night Thrasher avatar until Black Friday

 

[SlimySnake]

Was this posted?

GOP KEEPS LEAD -- As of 5:10 am, Floridians cast a record 4.5 million pre-Election Day ballots, 1.82 million (40.2 percent) by Republicans and 1.8 million (39.8 percent) by Democrats. That’s a GOP lead of 18,399 raw votes and 0.41 percentage points five days before Election Day. Compare that to Democrats’ lead of 1.9 percentage points (about 59,000 raw votes of the nearly 3.1 million ballots cast) five days out in 2012. With that cushion four years ago, Obama beat Mitt Romney in Florida by less than a point.

Assuming 28% of reps voted for Hillary and 10% dems voted for Trump, i'd say Hillary has a nice lead going into Election day despite the GOP lead of raw votes.

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/f...-court-stop-deceptive-solar-initiative-217201

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

2008 was the high water mark for voter participation.

Passing the 7 day total in four days already says "landslide."

Polls don't matter anymore. EV data has republicans getting destroyed everywhere and this will not be close.

Super agree. The "Rigged" narrative will be deafening, but I believe that reason will finally, soundly, defeat "faith".

 

[Officerrob]

I'm going to miss Obama soooooo much

 

[shiba5]

I'll take 2 on the right, tnx

Grandma and grandpa have been in the sauce again.

 

[Y2Kev]

Cmmon Coloradans. Return those ballots. Are ballots accepted early all the way to Election Day or does it end earlier?

 

[sazzy]

All this campaigning by Obama is so obviously cathartic.

So great to see.

 

[TheChocoboCadet]

Was this posted?



Assuming 28% of reps voted for Hillary and 10% dems voted for Trump, i'd say Hillary has a nice lead going into Election day despite the GOP lead of raw votes.

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/f...-court-stop-deceptive-solar-initiative-217201

You guys are setting yourself up for massive disappointment doing stuff like this.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I'm going to miss Obama soooooo much

The least they can do is let him emcee the White House Correspondents Dinner.

He won't even need Luther anymore.

 

[whyamihere]

Just for benchmark's sake, The Upshot now projects that the Early Vote in NC > 50% of the total NC electorate as of yesterday.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Cmmon Coloradans. Return those ballots. Are ballots accepted early all the way to Election Day or does it end earlier?

Can't speak for Colorado, but in NC, mail-in absentee ballots just have to be postmarked by election day.

 

[User 85168]

Yo, what happened to PoliGAF Discord?

.

Check your PMs!

 

[metalslimer]

"America under a Trump Presidency"

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/794199062677520384

Yikes. I do want to see one final positive closing message ad from her though. Although maybe the team has determined at this point they've gotten all the people they are going to get through positive messaging and the goal is to get people to stay home on the other side.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Was this posted?



Assuming 28% of reps voted for Hillary and 10% dems voted for Trump, i'd say Hillary has a nice lead going into Election day despite the GOP lead of raw votes.

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/f...-court-stop-deceptive-solar-initiative-217201

Don't assume that the 28% value is anywhere near correct (it's not). Also this is horribly misleading: Republicans are banking more early votes this year than in 2012 because of moving voters from election day to early voting and Trump is likely getting demolished in NPA voting, which that blurb doesn't mention at all.

 

[DrForester]

Cmmon Coloradans. Return those ballots. Are ballots accepted early all the way to Election Day or does it end earlier?

Deadline to mail them in was Monday I think, however, there are drop off locations everywhere. I dropped mine off just to get out of buying a stamp.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

"Not because the height of our skyscrapers" Obama?

LEAVE OUR SKYSCRAPES OUTTA THIS BHO

"Not because of the Chaos of our Crystals?!"

 

[Ithil]

"You can't just be against everything, you've got to be for something" is a succinct takedown of the GOP's MO these days.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Was this posted?



Assuming 28% of reps voted for Hillary and 10% dems voted for Trump, i'd say Hillary has a nice lead going into Election day despite the GOP lead of raw votes.

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/f...-court-stop-deceptive-solar-initiative-217201

This doesn't account for NPA, which we are coming to find is heavily young and Latinx.

Also, you can ignore a 28% GOP cross-over rate. That's fanciful and almost certainly wrong. But on net Clinton is probably getting more registered Repubs than Trump gets Dems.

Edit: Exactly what Frag says above

 

[Plinko]

(((Harry Enten)))Verified account
‏@ForecasterEnten
Four NH polls coming out today. The first two have Trump ahead.

ARE WE COOL???

I'll gladly trade New Hampshire for Ohio and Florida, which had polls with HIllary winning today.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Qpac senate races:

FL:
Rubio 50
Murphy 44

NC:
Ross 49
Burr 45

OH:
Portman 56
Strickland 38

PA:
McGinty 48
Toomey 47

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2400

 

[CrazyDude]

Why is Strickland hated so much?

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Why is Strickland hated so much?

He never had hair.

 

[Pyrokai]

Well 22 Amendment

#RepealThe22nd

 

[mo60]

Look like MN republicans in the third district forgot to put trump on thier sample ballots.
https://www.minnpost.com/party-poli...ct-republicans-dont-include-presidential-nomi

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Assuming 28% of reps voted for Hillary and 10% dems voted for Trump, i'd say Hillary has a nice lead going into Election day despite the GOP lead of raw votes.

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/f...-court-stop-deceptive-solar-initiative-217201

28% of Republicans aren't voting Hillary. It's just not even remotely realistic. Trump still doesn't have great odds in Florida, but it's not because a quarter of registered Republicans are voting for someone they've spent the last three decades demonizing.

 

[whyamihere]

Qpac senate races:

FL:
Rubio 50
Murphy 44

NC:
Ross 49
Burr 45

OH:
Portman 56
Strickland 38

PA:
McGinty 48
Toomey 47

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2400

ROSS. MCGINTY. BOW DOWN.

 

[BotoxAgent]

Ugh Murphy

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Why is Strickland hated so much?

Shitty governor, shitty senate candidate. It's like running Jennifer Granholm for senate in Michigan...why would you do that when the opposition just has to remind folks of how bad the state was doing back then, versus how good it's doing now.

Plus Portman is running a great campaign unfortunately.

 

[Pyrokai]

Why is Strickland hated so much?

He was an awesome governor but then the evil seeped in when no one came to the polls during the midterms and Kasich took over, destroyed a lot of stuff but took credit for the good stuff Obama did, and then all the Republicans blamed Ted for the bad stuff and it somehow worked hardcore for Portman.

In a nut shell.

 

[SpeedySwaf]

Why is Strickland hated so much?

The ads against him have been pretty effective, and Portman looks to have a good resume. I think a lot of it also has to do with Strickland having the misfortune of being governor during the Recession, which means they can say that "millions of jobs" were lost under him, even though I'm sure the story was true for a lot of governors at the time, regardless of their political affiliation or policies.

 

[Already Torn]

Qpac senate races:

FL:
Rubio 50
Murphy 44

NC:
Ross 49
Burr 45

OH:
Portman 56
Strickland 38

PA:
McGinty 48
Toomey 47

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2400

Yesss, gtfo Toomey

 

[Finale Fireworker]

The Florida ticket-splitting is depressing to me. How can anyone vote for Clinton and Rubio on the same ballot? How can Florida be energized against Trump but not Rubio?

Can't we just drone this guy?

 

[BitStyle]

Qpac senate races:

FL:
Rubio 50
Murphy 44

NC:
Ross 49
Burr 45

OH:
Portman 56
Strickland 38

PA:
McGinty 48
Toomey 47

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2400

Murphy pls. Not like this

 

[Fragamemnon]

That same sample had Clinton up 3, but Ross up 4? I hate polls.

edit: Portman spent big early and kept spending, ran a great campaign. When you're a challenger, this gets you on the board (Ross, Kander, Hassan), when you're the incumbent you flatten them.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

People were saying 538 would be 50/50 by election day were wrong. It's going to be 50/50 this weekend. Just need some more Remington polls in red states, worth about a percent each.