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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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28% of Republicans aren't voting Hillary. It's just not even remotely realistic. Trump still doesn't have great odds in Florida, but it's not because a quarter of registered Republicans are voting for someone they've spent the last three decades demonizing.

It's just for early votes; I don't believe they ever said it was going to be that on election day.
 
That same sample had Clinton up 3, but Ross up 4? I hate polls.

Remember when Kate and Jack are in the car outside the wedding and she's like, "For when you're ready" and he's like "Ready for what?" and she's like "To leave" and you burst into tears because you figured it all out?

Polls?

It's time to leave.
 

lyrick

Member
People were saying 538 would be 50/50 by election day were wrong. It's going to be 50/50 this weekend. Just need some more Remington polls in red states, worth about a percent each.

They need to also weight them all Trump +3 to account for Silvers mistake in the primary.
 
He's bowed down to Trump for months.

He can't get re-elected without the I-10 and Jax vote, so yeah he's been on the Trump train for a while now.

Kind of wish Obama could just spend the next week making fun of Marco Rubio across the state. He obviously enjoys it and it's the best press Murphy's gotten all cycle.
 
It's just for early votes; I don't believe they ever said it was going to be that on election day.

It's a single poll that would be wildly outside of any reasonable expectation of crossover, and should be treated as such. Now if we had several polls that all showed similar trends, maybe you've got something. But it's likely just an outlier. Any time a poll shows something wildly beyond your wildest expectations, you should treat it with a healthy dose of skepticism. If it ends up being correct, one more thing to be excited about come election day, but until then, don't go crazy with unreasonable expectations.
 
The Florida ticket-splitting is depressing to me. How can anyone vote for Clinton and Rubio on the same ballot? How can Florida be energized against Trump but not Rubio?

Can't we just drone this guy?

As with most things Floriduh...it's complicated.

Lil Marco will rally his Cuban troops, bit they're older, while the younger Cubans tend to vote in line with their cohorts. You're also seeing the building of a Puerto Rican wave in the NPA voters, who HATE Rubio and the GOPs outright vitriol towards helping the island.

This race is much closer 2-3pts in my estimation (outta my ass) and GOTV is gonna make or break Murphy's chances. Believe!
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Even Harry Enten was like, IT'S ONLY BASED ON POLLS IT'S PROBABLY WRONG

Someone mentioned yesterday that Nate said in either a podcast or a conversation that he thinks parts of the model are going to be wrong. No idea if that's legit or not. Obviously he's been a smug jackass this cycle but he isn't stupid. He HAS to recognize how absurd it is for fucking landline only Missouri polls to be knocking Clinton down 1-2%.
 

In this there was:

1. "Not all Trump Supporters"
2. Implications that Hillary is a liar when she has been shown to be possibly the most honest presidential candidate ever (where's that politifact chart?)
3. Implications that current race relations are Obama's fault. WTF.
4. Complete ignorance of platform issues with regards to student debt. Something that Hillary has directly addressed.

The black millennials schooled these people hard in that clip.
 
Quinn has Ross doing better than Cooper.

That's just inexplicable to me.

I think McRory is getting a small bump due to the Hurricane Matthew fallout, which was reasonably well managed and he definitely came across as authentic.

Won't save him though. Cities are going to put his face in the (opposite sex) toilet.
 
People complaining about millenials are literally falling for a vast right-wing conspiracy.

Clearly, you haven't been listening to the millennial-heavy NPR Politics podcast.

Gracious, they're insufferable.

"I feel like," "My thing," "Beyonce," etc. No political perspective at all. And that's just Sam Sanders.
 

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Millennials can be annoying and self-righteous but yeah, they're not dumb to let Trump win lol.

I could probably make an extremely awful video with titles like "Baby Boomers discuss the 2016 election" or even "Gen Xers discuss the 2016 election".

But no, let's continue shitting on young people. They're to blame for everything. Not the older people in power.
 

Yeah, that would suck...

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God I can't stand the sampled college students they put in panels like these. Why are they so goddamn stupid

It's no better than Jay Leno On The Street garbage or the parsing Conservatives do to Liberals or PoliGAF does to Ohio.

It's all shitty and reductive and kind on unamerican if we're being honest
 

Vyrance

Member
My parents were some of the people that are ticket-splitting here in Florida :(

They voted Hillary and Rubio. I tried getting them to go Murphy, but they decided to go Rubio :( I failed you all
 
Not a fan of the genre of video where you talk to a tiny number of people and then generalize to a much larger group. Especially when it's so easy to selectively show just the dumbest responses and you end up with those stupid "how Obama got elected" videos from 8 years ago.
 
My parents were some of the people that are ticket-splitting here in Florida :(

They voted Hillary and Rubio. I tried getting them to go Murphy, but they decided to go Rubio :( I failed you all

As a fellow Floridian, what was their reasoning if you don't mind sharing?
 
This happens to every generation.

That's the hilarious thing if you know any history. The things people say about Millennials are the same things they said about Gen X, which are the same things they said about Baby Boomers, and are the same things Millennials will say about future generations.
 
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