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[Manmademan]

Did not expect everybody to be in Philly election eve.

That makes me partly very worried.

They're in Philly to drive GOTV for mcgintys Senate race.

The presidential has been safe dem all year.

 

[whyamihere]

Did not expect everybody to be in Philly election eve.

That makes me partly very worried.

Huh

ahahahahahahaha

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

didn't know hillary dropped this bomb last night



trump would be stupid enough to do it too

Crooked Hillary gave him a "smart" idea.

 

[paskowitz]

My primary concern with millennials and and gen Z is that while they may have access to more information and in general are more liberal than their parents, their/our ability to reason and come to these view points based on reasoning, observation, deduction, etc is depressingly low. IMO this is due to the overwhelming amount of information and by effect, not being able to sift through the increased amount of bad information.

It isn't what they believe it is how and why that concerns me.

 

[whyamihere]

THERE IS NO EARLY VOTING IN PA.

THEY ARE GOING TO PA BECAUSE THERE IS EARLY VOTING IN LESS SAFE STATES AND THIS IS THEIR ONE CHANCE TO RALLY THE TROOPS.

THIS IS WHY THEY ARE GOING TO MICHIGAN EVEN THOUGH OHIO, WISCONSIN, AND IOWA ARE MUCH MORE PRECARIOUS. THIS IS WHY THERE HAVE BEEN ALMOST NO TRIPS TO NEVADA.

THIS IS ALSO WHY SHE'LL PROBABLY GO TO NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS WEEKEND.

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If you are going to be scared our outraged or confused, take a moment to think.

 

[Plinko]

28% of Republicans aren't voting Hillary. It's just not even remotely realistic. Trump still doesn't have great odds in Florida, but it's not because a quarter of registered Republicans are voting for someone they've spent the last three decades demonizing.

I keep seeing this sentiment. I am curious--aren't Cuban-Americans traditionally republican? Don't they hate Trump because of the Cuba dealings? What percent of the vote are they?

 

[Emarv]

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

Some discussion about the 538 model from Vox.

Oh my god, he literally mentions response bias and systematic polling error. Politics is a flat circle.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Gen Z is looking even better than millennials since they will likely be more educated and more diverse, two demographics that are poisonous to the Republican party.

Gen Z will probably be somewhat more Republican than the millennials because they don't remember the Bush administration. Unless we elect another horrible GOP President in the next couple of cycles.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Clearly, you haven't been listening to the millennial-heavy NPR Politics podcast.

Gracious, they're insufferable.

"I feel like," "My thing," "Beyonce," etc. No political perspective at all. And that's just Sam Sanders.

Look, Sam Sanders is fucking awful at analysis regardless of his generation. He's lucky that Gen-Xer Nate Silver is very publicly embarrassing himself as an analyst right now so no one has time to notice him being just as awful at it.

All I need to look at is the "If only Millennials voted" map and see it sitting at 400+ EVs for Hillary Clinton to know that we're not that bad.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I'm always surprised how a ton of red states have early voting and simple mail ins, and I'm sitting here in NY and there's nothing I can do but wait to vote...

Come on Albany.

 

[Eidan]

Isn't the cutoff 1983? I think 33 and about is Gen X.

Hahaha 33 is not Gen X. People who are 33 now were labeled as Millennials ALLLL the way back in 2007.

 

[Christian]

So are we wetting the bed or not? Legitimately. Not the fake, oh, my cat peed in the bed but I'm gonna take the credit to be funny kind of peeing. The full bladder bursting, minutes of dark yellow PISSING the bed. Are we there yet?

 

[pigeon]

28% of Republicans aren't voting Hillary. It's just not even remotely realistic. Trump still doesn't have great odds in Florida, but it's not because a quarter of registered Republicans are voting for someone they've spent the last three decades demonizing.

28% of Republicans who turned out for early voting voted Hillary is not the same as 28% of Republicans overall voting Hillary.

Early voting reflects turnout and GOTV operations. Trump has none.

 

[Bowdz]

So are we wetting the bed or not? Legitimately. Not the fake, oh, my cat peed in the bed but I'm gonna take the credit to be funny kind of peeing. The full bladder bursting, minutes of dark yellow PISSING the bed. Are we there yet?

Presidential race - no.
Senate - it's going to be close.

 

[Hellsing321]

I think much like we classify Nates into "good" and "bad" we need to classify millennials in the same way.

Millennials born before 1990: Good
Millennials born 1990 and after: Bad

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Election Day |OT| Partly Very Worried

 

[Crocodile]

The fact that voting procedures (whether or not there is early voting or mail in ballots or even absentee ballots) vary WILDLY from state to state is so fucking stupid. It never made a lick of sense to me and that even before taking into account partisan governments that may be in charge of a particular state.

 

[Box of Kittens]

My primary concern with millennials and and gen Z is that while they may have access to more information and in general are more liberal than their parents, their/our ability to reason and come to these view points based on reasoning, observation, deduction, etc is depressingly low. IMO this is due to the overwhelming amount of information and by effect, not being able to sift through the increased amount of bad information.

It isn't what they believe it is how and why that concerns me.

But how do you know it's worse than any other generation?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I think much like we classify Nates into "good" and "bad" we need to classify millennials in the same way.

Millennials born before 1990: Good
Millennials born 1990 and after: Bad

Hey! I was born in 1990

 

[Phanatic8390]

So uhh I've never gone to one of these events but I just RSVPed for this Monday night Avengers rally in Philly. Like its potentially 3 presidents in 1 shot, how can I not?

I assume that I still need to go early and wait in line to get in?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

It seems people forget the idiots who think stupid things were once young idiots who think stupid things.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

87 here. The best of the best.

 

[ZealousD]

This may be true, that doesn't make them smart.

Not every millennial is a winner in the brains department. We're still smarter on average than Gen Xers and Baby Boomers.

 

[RastaMentality]

NYTimes published a story about Trump not being as rich as he says he is:

Trump Income Is Lower Than He Claims, Records Suggest
- Records of Mr. Trump’s tax appeals and other documents indicate that actual income from some of his businesses may be nowhere near what he has reported on financial disclosures.
- The records demonstrate that after expenses, some of his businesses make a small fraction of what he reported on disclosure forms, or actually lose money.

http://nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/donald-trump-money.html

Where was this in coherence with your tax story at the beginning of october, NYT?

 

[my name is ed]

The female Trump supporter takes the cake. Blaming Obama for the worsening of race relations is one of the laziest right wing talking points around.

Yeah I've seen that going around. I guess it's his fault racists don't like him for being black :discust

I am just out of college (Business Major at Drexel University) and it is staggering how myopic and naive the majority of college students are. "My feelings tell me this, and fuck reason and logic, I can't be seen as being wrong."

I graduated in 2011 and I can't say I remember it being like this at all but then again the youth vote wasn't exactly split like this at the time, it was strongly favoring Obama.

In my experience as a millennial living in Austin, there's a significant number of liberals backing stein or hoping to write in Sanders and those who back Clinton tend to do so more quietly. I, however, have no problem speaking my mind on the subject and correcting bad info, but also I remember to listen when I lack the knowledge!

 

[BadRNG]

#HillaryIndictment is currently trending.

Social media was a mistake.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I don't even know what age/year is the whole millenial thing

 

[banefirelord]

Y'all see this hilarious 6 Ways Trump Could Win headline on CNN?

 

[Ryuuroden]

Isn't the cutoff 1983? I think 33 and about is Gen X.

Some put the cutoff at 1978 now....

 

[cartoon_soldier]

538 is bad

 

[BiggNife]

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

Some discussion about the 538 model from Vox.

Unless I'm missing something, this is just regurgitating stuff Silver has said in the past, specifically that polling errors make smaller lead margins less reliable and such.

I don't really buy it. This feels kinda clickbaity.

 

[steveovig]

I'm trying to make any sense of 538's model. I think in NC, HRC has won a vast majority of the polls yet Trump has over 50% chance at winning. There are similar situations in a couple other states too. Is Nate's model really flawed or is it just GAF citizens saying this and we're really fucked right now?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Trump being up in MO made Clinton's chances fall by 1% in 538. That makes zero sense.

 

[Y2Kev]

It's just partisan nonresponse bias leading to systemic polling error.

 

[Emarv]

Hey! I was born in 1990

Same here! 1990 is a beautiful number.

 

[Grief.exe]

Y'all see this hilarious 6 Ways Trump Could Win headline on CNN?

Horserace narrative.

 

[radios shipping overview]

Hahaha 33 is not Gen X. People who are 33 now were labeled as Millennials ALLLL the way back in 2007.

That feeling when you realize "millennial" is a shifting window used to make generalizations about "kids these days"

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I keep seeing this sentiment. I am curious--aren't Cuban-Americans traditionally republican? Don't they hate Trump because of the Cuba dealings? What percent of the vote are they?

I keep posting this, and will continue to until Tuesday. Cubans are more Republican, but only the older ones. The younger group is far more in line with their wider cohort

 

[thefro]

Trump being up in MO made Clinton's chances fall by 1% in 538. That makes zero sense.

Broken Nate Zinc sold out and is getting paid in free burritos by the Trump campaign.

 

[Cyanity]

What's up with Brett Baier talking about a likely indictment for the Clinton Foundation? This is real?

*Banging head repeatedly against a wall*

 

[Plinko]

I keep posting this, and will continue to until Tuesday. Cubans are more Republican, but only the older ones. The younger group is far more in line with their wider cohort

Thanks--haven't seen this at all yet. Been busy this week. Answers my question.

 

[BiggNife]

I'm trying to make any sense of 538's model. I think in NC, HRC has won a vast majority of the polls yet Trump has over 50% chance at winning. There are similar situations in a couple other states too. Is Nate's model really flawed or is it just GAF citizens saying this and we're really fucked right now?

It's hard to say if it's flawed or not but 538's model is unquestionably far more volatile than other prediction models.

While 538 has Hillary at 65%,

• NYT Upshot has her at 86%
• Princeton has her at >99% (!!)
• Huffington Post has her at 99% (!!!)
• Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has her getting at least 293 electoral votes.

538 being so inconsistent with other reliable prediction models makes me really skeptical.

 

[sphagnum]

People complaining about millenials are literally falling for a vast right-wing conspiracy.

Thank you.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Hilary's facebook is hilarious the last few days. It just keeps diablosing about how Trump is winning and how if you don't donate America is over.

 

[Frank the Great]

Y'all see this hilarious 6 Ways Trump Could Win headline on CNN?

He could also win California and/or New York. There are actually loads of ways he could win.

FUCK

 

[Plinko]

#HillaryIndictment is currently trending.

Social media was a mistake.

With how well this works for republicans, I am really surprised we haven't seen democrats start trying to do this same thing. Make up something huge, then spread it on social media.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

All this talk of generations is just more absurd "us versus them" nonsense that humans have an innate need to break things down into because binary oppositions are so much easier than having to actually assess information on a case-by-case basis. There are idiotic millennials. There are brilliant millennials. Same thing with Gen-Xers, Baby Boomers, Greatest Generation, the Silent Generation (are they even around anymore?), etc. All this talk of "well this generation is full of idiots" is intellectual laziness and doesn't really address the fact that, for all their stupidity (and let's face it, young people in any generation have always done stupid things), the youth in this country today are a lot less receptive to Trump's message of hatred and bigotry than older generations. That doesn't seem like a collection of idiots to me.

 

[Emarv]

Apparently Tim Kaine is in Arizona today giving a speech entirely in Spanish.


Ummmm....why hasn't he been doing this all fall????

 

[Zyae]

It's hard to say if it's flawed or not but 538's model is unquestionably far more volatile than other prediction models.

While 538 has Hillary at 65%,

• NYT Upshot has her at 86%
• Princeton has her at >99% (!!)
• Huffington Post has her at 99% (!!!)
• Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has her getting at least 293 electoral votes.

538 being so inconsistent with other reliable prediction models makes me really skeptical.

They've written at length why their model gives trump a better chance than others.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

With how well this works for republicans, I am really surprised we haven't seen democrats start trying to do this same thing. Make up something huge, then spread it on social media.

For all this talk about how Republicans are in shambles, they are doing a lot of things right. They've taken over social media with the help of Trump's 4chan people and old conservatives sharing stuff on facebook. They seem to have had a cavalcade of stuff ready to throw against Clinton to keep bad headlines for her in the news.