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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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B

Bowdz

Member
banefirelord said:
Y'all see this hilarious 6 Ways Trump Could Win headline on CNN?
BfPMXll.png
Click to expand...

The take away from these bullshit maps is that even in every one of these fanciful scenarios, Trump still needs to win Florida. So let's put it away and end the night early.
 
P

paskowitz

Member
Atomic Playboy said:
All this talk of generations is just more absurd "us versus them" nonsense that humans have an innate need to break things down into because binary oppositions are so much easier than having to actually assess information on a case-by-case basis. There are idiotic millennials. There are brilliant millennials. Same thing with Gen-Xers, Baby Boomers, Greatest Generation, the Silent Generation (are they even around anymore?), etc. All this talk of "well this generation is full of idiots" is intellectual laziness and doesn't really address the fact that, for all their stupidity (and let's face it, young people in any generation have always done stupid things), the youth in this country today are a lot less receptive to Trump's message of hatred and bigotry than older generations. That doesn't seem like a collection of idiots to me.
Click to expand...

Admittedly, I don't have hard data in front of me at work... but if I were to make a counter argument, I would say that it isn't cognitively difficult to determine that Trump is terrible. Second, previous generations had a very different interaction with obtaining information to inform their political decisions. IMO the internet and the scale of information available (good and bad) has made it significantly more taxing to make informed decisions in one's best interest.

Now the counter to that is there are more tools to get good info than ever. What I assume, and would have to prove is that this generation is using the tools they have poorly.
 
Z

Zyae

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
Yet they haven't even attempted to justify why a landline-only Missouri poll can drop Clinton's chances 1-2%
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I would guess that it could imply that his numbers in red states are improving which would suggest his national numbers could be improving but i'd like to hear an explanation myself.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Everyone is talking about 538.

No one is talking about PEC.

Guess who's publicity/business model is working?
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Plinko said:
Thanks--haven't seen this at all yet. Been busy this week. Answers my question.
Click to expand...

No worries. To address your other question: Yeah, the Cuba thing prolly affected some older Cuban votes, but it's the flip side of the younger Cubans being more in line with their wider cohort; that news didn't swing a lot of those voters because they care far less about the Embargo.

It probably depressed a small amount of Rubio's voters, but partisan inflexibility made the net outcome negligible for him.

Overall, Cubans are a large portion of the FL Hispanic numbers, but with the influx of Puerto Ricans, they're less than half the total. So the demographics have rapidly switched in the last decade, but the difficulty with polling those younger, more Dem aligned Latinx, and the fact most polling can't differentiate between a Hispanic Cuban vs a Brazillian, Venezuelan, Boricua etc. means that you end up with older Cubans passing the Likely Voter screen more often because they're easier to find and have landlines, and thus the pollsters count them disproportionately as the basis for their Hispanic slice of the FL representative sample.

Make sense?
 
K

Kaiterra

Banned
paskowitz said:
My primary concern with millennials and and gen Z is that while they may have access to more information and in general are more liberal than their parents, their/our ability to reason and come to these view points based on reasoning, observation, deduction, etc is depressingly low. IMO this is due to the overwhelming amount of information and by effect, not being able to sift through the increased amount of bad information.

It isn't what they believe it is how and why that concerns me.
Click to expand...

My 18 year old little brother is constantly falling for hoax stories on Facebook and I feel like I'm just being an annoying old man for repeatedly having to explain how they're all bullshit to him.
 
I

Ithil

Member
Protein said:
Clinton Foundation pay-for-play trending over 1 million. The feck is going on? More dead horse beating?
Click to expand...

It's just the latest desperate topic to cling to. Notice no one talks about her health anymore, for instance, or the Catholic thing. They swarm all over a topic hoping it will somehow save the race, then when it doesn't work, they forget about it (which also shows they never really cared about the topic in question at all, only what they thought it could do for the election numbers).
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump

Looking at Air Force One @ MIA. Why is he campaigning instead of creating jobs & fixing Obamacare? Get back to work for the American people!
Nov 3, 2016, 11:19 AM

Sure, Jan.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Emarv said:
Apparently Tim Kaine is in Arizona today giving a speech entirely in Spanish.


Ummmm....why hasn't he been doing this all fall????
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Well the campaign knows better than us. I remember a few months ago some people in here literally wanted Kaine to literally stay in Florida doing speeches in Spanish the whole time.
 
E

Emarv

Member
steveovig said:
So, basically I should stop worrying as much but maybe a little? All I check is 538, might have to expand a little, I guess.
Click to expand...
Go read the NYT Upshot. Really smart, well reasoned and level headed analysis, great writing, beautiful graphs, etc. Not too esoteric like PEC can be for most people.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Boke1879 said:
Well the campaign knows better than us. I remember a few months ago some people in here literally wanted Kaine to literally stay in Florida doing speeches in Spanish the whole time.
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I mean, sure, I'll defer to their expertise. And I'm sure Kaine has his own desires and stuff. But I still think he should have had a bigger presence on Spanish TV than he has had this election.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
is he still being full of shit

Rick WilsonVerified account
‏@TheRickWilson
I'll say it for the 10th time:

1. Media has the two story leads.
2. Neither was the story from yesterday.
3. I don't control timing.
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
I was born in 1980. I have seen plenty of articles calling me a millennial based on that, but I consider 1980 as right at the end of Gen X. I don't feel like I have a lot in common with someone born in 1990 or beyond. I was about to graduate college when 9/11 happened. Many millennials weren't even out of grade school then.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
paskowitz said:
Admittedly, I don't have hard data in front of me at work... but if I were to make a counter argument, I would say that it isn't cognitively difficult to determine that Trump is terrible. Second, previous generations had a very different interaction with obtaining information to inform their political decisions. IMO the internet and the scale of information available (good and bad) has made it significantly more taxing to make informed decisions in one's best interest.

Now the counter to that is there are more tools to get good info than ever. What I assume, and would have to prove is that this generation is using the tools they have poorly.
Click to expand...

Members of every generation are using the tools they have poorly. When your older relatives repost blatant lies and right wing memes on Facebook, are they doing it as a function of their generation, or because they specifically as individuals aren't interested in fact-checking? What generation makes up the bulk of the audience for Fox News, especially popular pundits like Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity? You shouldn't just generalize people based on the year they were born, since so many other factors will play a role in how they engage with the political system and media. The younger generation in this country deserves some flack for ruining pop music (as every generation somehow manages to do) and the proliferation of bullshit products like smartwatches or earbuds (why the hell would I want to stick something into my damn ear canal?). But it's always struck me as "old man yells at cloud" type of complaining whenever someone starts railing on the youth for failing to live up to standards that their own generation failed to live up to as well. "Things aren't perfect, and it's those damn powerless youths' fault!"
 
N

nature boy

Member
Still waiting for the oppo, and nothing

Meanwhile:

Brit Hume ‏@brithume 20m20 minutes ago
Great news! @TuckerCarlson will take over On the Record after the election as the new host. Congratulations to him. Terrific choice!
Click to expand...

Yeah, Fox sure is going to be a more moderate news channel.
 
K

Knuckle Sandwich

Member
That Teen Mom who did porn is trending on my facebook for giving her 7 year old child a weight loss drink. We're screwed.


nature boy said:
Still waiting for the oppo, and nothing

Meanwhile:



Yeah, Fox sure is going to be a more moderate news channel.
Click to expand...


Does he still wear a bowtie? He was like the last guy still doing it.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
sazzy said:
is he still being full of shit

Rick WilsonVerified account
‏@TheRickWilson
I'll say it for the 10th time:

1. Media has the two story leads.
2. Neither was the story from yesterday.
3. I don't control timing.
Click to expand...

He's so full of it. I'm half tempted to call him out.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
Hopfrog said:
I was born in 1980. I have seen plenty of articles calling me a millennial based on that, but I consider 1980 as right at the end of Gen X. I don't feel like I have a lot in common with someone born in 1990 or beyond. I was about to graduate college when 9/11 happened. Many millennials weren't even out of grade school then.
Click to expand...

I was in college for 1.5 months when 9/11 happened. Let's just say before that day and after that day I was a different person.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
sazzy said:
is he still being full of shit

Rick WilsonVerified account
‏@TheRickWilson
I'll say it for the 10th time:

1. Media has the two story leads.
2. Neither was the story from yesterday.
3. I don't control timing.
Click to expand...

Probably. The window to release anything is either today or tomorrow....and two "big" leads would end up drowning each other out l
 
E

Emarv

Member
sazzy said:
is he still being full of shit

Rick WilsonVerified account
‏@TheRickWilson
I'll say it for the 10th time:

1. Media has the two story leads.
2. Neither was the story from yesterday.
3. I don't control timing.
Click to expand...
Who cares by now? It's either coming or it isn't. A ton of the electorate has already voted so it's damage is growing smaller by the hour.

If it does exist, I'm starting to believe it comes out after the election.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Hopfrog said:
I was born in 1980. I have seen plenty of articles calling me a millennial based on that, but I consider 1980 as right at the end of Gen X. I don't feel like I have a lot in common with someone born in 1990 or beyond. I was about to graduate college when 9/11 happened. Many millennials weren't even out of grade school then.
Click to expand...

As someone falling in the "gap years" ('81) I tend to group Millenials as anyone who had access to the Internet through schools or libraries while in gradeschool as one. Also, was the first videogame you played at home on an Atari 2600/7800? Total Millenial
 
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