Tal Shiar Agent
Member
I think as time goes on the generational divides should become shorter. I think Millennials fit nicely being born in ~1985 to ~1996. Gen X would probably be 1970 to ~1984.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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balladofwindfishes
Member
I was in 6th grade and wasn't really able to comprehend what was going on or why this was a bigger deal than any other random plane crash.
It also didn't help that our teachers didn't really know how to explain it to us, so it mostly through rumors and stuff that I learned what was going on.
If there's leads he should at least put them out at this point. I'm betting he's full of it.
I was in sixth grade too. I remember when the teachers found out, it was during math class. We were doing triangles and the whole atmosphere of the room changed. The following period they made the vague announcement, suspended the rest of the classes (everyone would just stay where they were) and parents started pulling kids out.
Box of Kittens
Banned
The former is part of a large media conglomerate. The latter is a project a neuroscientist does for fun in his spare time. Not exactly comparable.
balladofwindfishes
Member
With like half of people already voting in many swing states, seems kind of late to put out anything massive
Atomic Playboy
Member
The best part about November 9th? We won't have to hear the word "oppo" again for 3 whole goddamn years.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Honestly I'm probably more skeptical of the methodologies that says she has a 99% chance of winning than I am of 538's model. I don't know how you look at the recent Trump gains in some polls and say "this changes nothing" or throw those polls out entirely and call them outliers.
99% is a fuzzy warm blanket but I don't think it reflects reality.
Carpe Carnim
Member
When your worldview causes you to label Antifa as "Liberals" everyone else is a Conservative, pragmatic or otherwise.
sazzy
Member
That site that aggregates all the models has it at around 86%, I think. IMO that is probably the most reliable number.
Wiz
Member
So Oppo the Hedgehog?
Hmm. Make every other word end with "-po" and we might have a book deal.
Yea. This right here was the biggest tactical let down for me. I wanted Kaine to be giving speeches in Spanish since the beginning in NV, FL, and AZ. Was a big missed opportunity.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Because the Electoral College math isn't there. Trump isn't gaining in states that equal 270. Models that show a Trump win have to make huge assumptions that places like Colorado or Michigan are going to have 5+ point swings in 5 days.
Possum, I'd say.
Carpe Carnim
Member
"Hey, kids! Oppo is here to teach us all about campaign trackers. Does everyone have their GoPro turned on and their mic levels balanced? "
that is insane
I agree. If you click on state polling on say 538 almost everything from Oct 30th is him gaining. He's closed the gap/taken slight leads in every battleground and closed in on light blue states. Hard to say these sites that are in the 80 and 90's and seem to never drop with his gains is a little weird.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yes. He is full of shit.
IggyChooChoo
Member
My theory is that it's because the quality of his Spanish is inconsistent and he's out of practice, so they don't want to risk him screwing up in interviews. When he's good he sounds very strong to my ear, but I've seen other informal occasions where he sounded really rough, too. He seems capable of quality Spanish, but things like stress and sleep deprivation and lack of practice make that hard. As a gringo who speaks Spanish in professional settings. I sympathize. Language ability is more like a sine wave than a RPG level, IMO.
I mean, surely we all know how #WhichHillary tanked her in the South Carolina primary.
Tal Shiar Agent
Member
Gen Z will be almost a plurality.
I think MO being an outlier from the midwest as a recent development (and in this one) is something that is still screwing with the electoral map (guessing correlation coefficient between MO and IA/OH is still relatively high)
I am guessing after this election MO will get shunted to the IL section of the model.
I think Upshot's model is the best right now - I get 538s decision to put everything in the model - but I think the increase in trash polling has hurt them more than Upshot. That said, I think not modeling OH / IA / WI / MI / MN at least partially together is flawed (which is what PEC does I think). Upshot seems to be the 538 model and being a little more selective about what polls to use (and having the ability to conduct their own polls as sanity checks).
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Because 538 will take any poll they can find and put it in the model. The others are slightly to moderately more selective. For instance, I don't think anyone else uses these ridiculous auto alliance polls of the swing states. Look at the last 3 days of polling and how much of it is from R pollsters or other questionable sources.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
I did my part and voted in California.
Which I should ask
I voted for Kamala for US Senate. Kamalas cool right?
...if I tell you who I voted for does that mean my votes invalidated?
Which I should ask
I voted for Kamala for US Senate. Kamalas cool right?
...if I tell you who I voted for does that mean my votes invalidated?
Yes, Kamala's the good one.
StopMakingSense
Member
KAMALA IS A FUCKING QUEEN.
Seriously, she's a rising star. 2024 potential all over her.
Speaking for myself, I don't identify with Millennials in any way shape or form. I don't believe we share the same life experiences. I didn't grow up with easy access to computers, was lucky to play some Oregon Trail on my schools one Apple. I didn't grow up with the internet. I didn't grow up with social media. 9/11 defined my early adulthood. If I had to self identify with a generation, it'd have to be Gen X. Born 1984.
wumster3000
Member
TestOfTide
Banned
I blame Netanyahu entirely. At least Rabin was actually pushing for peace.
Laevateinn
Member
It's like your birthday. If you tell everyone your vote, it won't come true.
StopMakingSense
Member
1984 is just not Gen X. I would say 77 or so is the absolute latest for Gen X. There's a good argument for a 'tweener' generation between X and Millenials thats something like 75-85.
Does that mean more early votes have been cast than all votes in 2012? Or more early votes have been cast when compared to early votes in 2012.
Playing Oregon Trail in elementary school is a defining aspect of Millennial culture.
Outdoor Miner
Member
Born in '81 here and feel the same way.
Ugh, thank you for this. The Washington Post had an article too about how it's common to burn cash in leaning states to cancel out any attempt from the Republicans, especially with ads.
Manmademan
Member
Amazing.
Those of you STILL convinced Rubio keeps his Senate seat, explain how this happens.
It's early on and there's plenty of time for world events to change them, but the most consistent statements I've seen regarding analyses of Gen Z is that they are "money minded", individually focused, more cautious about things in general (work, having lower alcohol abuse rates, etc.), have higher rates of church attendance, etc. Unlike the millennials who grew up in the boom times and then got walloped, Gen Z grew up in an environment where they already expected things to be tough and so they tend towards caution. The will have grown up under two Democratic presidents who represent incremental change.
Or do you not think that's likely because it's funnier to pretend I'm a tankie?
RastaMentality
Banned
Somebody on gaf posted they voted Hillary/Rubio in FL. that's how that happens.
Just on the millennial cutoff
I see most people end millenials at 95-96 actually. My general cutoff for millenials vs gen z is do you remember before the internet was huge (i.e. before Web 2.0) and do you remember before cell phones exploded in popularity in the late 90s
CoffeeJanitor
Member
He wins more votes
Really? My brother was born in 1990, and he has no concept of what Oregon Trail was. He didn't even know what Apple was until the iPod's breakout success. Is it really a defining aspect of Millennial culture if half the generation never experienced it?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Just because there's high turnout doesn't necessarily mean one thing or another. I suppose you could make the case that higher turnout typically helps Dems but Rubio is going to do better with hispanics than Trump.
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