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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Okay please don't talk to me like that. It's a legitimate question. Please tell me the last time the FBI inserted itself into a Presidential election with less than 2 weeks left?

We're in a situation where the republican party is on the verge of the largest electoral loss since 1988.

The presidency has LONG been gone. The Senate almost certainly is, and there is a very real danger of losing the house on top of it.

The leaks aren't about winning the presidency, but stopping an unprecedented downballot collapse.

Before the Comey leaks there were numerous polls that had Hillary in the 10 to 14% range. It's NEVER been that bad, even Obama 08 was only 7 points...and the GOP is losing to the most villified figure on the right in the last 30 years.

This is a desperation play by desperate people to keep republicans from sitting out the election.
 

sphagnum

Banned
Gen Z is hyper connected and spend a lot more time interacting with friends and family. I don't know where you get this idea they're "individually focused"

They have overwhelming views that Climate Change is real, and that collective action is necessary to combat it. They have higher rates of volunteerism, and they tend to value "justice" and "communing" above all.

The kids are alright, but modern Socialism will have to expand on its views of Social Justice to stay relevant with a quickly diversifying Generation. That's my critique of where 21st Century Socialism is lacking; Intersectionality and Coalition Building

You're cool, though. No worries.

I think the idea that modern socialists don't believe in intersectionality is flawed. There are elements of the movement that want to stick to a pure class-above-all analysis as holdovers from and people influenced by the 20th century loyalists who have stuck things out, but intersectional socialists are all over the place. If anything they've been instrumental in working on intersectionality, gay liberation, feminism, anti racism etc since the beginning, pushing the boundaries for what it is acceptable for liberals to believe.

Bernie tended towards the class first approach but he wasn't so dogmatic that he couldn't change after it was pointed out to him. His diehard fans could be dumb but they don't even fully represent his voter base which was quite diverse.

We have a PR problem caused by idiots online but I think.more or less we're on the right track.
 
Anyone seen a surrogate map from today?

I'm tickled to see Big Dog was in Immokalee this week and Kaine will be at FGCU Friday.

Having a deep surrogate bench has allowed Clinton to really dig deep for voters in places that would/were overlooked in previous years.

The Queen is on the warpath
 
Cmmon Coloradans. Return those ballots. Are ballots accepted early all the way to Election Day or does it end earlier?

All main-in ballots must be turned in by 7pm election day.

Ours have been turned in and accepted by the state. 2 more for Hillary!
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I'm tickled to see Big Dog was in Immokalee this week and Kaine will be at FGCU Friday.

Having a deep surrogate bench has allowed Clinton to really dig deep for voters in places that would/were overlooked in previous years.

The Queen is on the warpath

Hmm, maybe I'll go visit my college and see Kaine?
 
Bernie tended towards the class first approach but he wasn't so dogmatic that he couldn't change after it was pointed out to him. His diehard fans could be dumb but they don't even fully represent his voter base which was quite diverse.

Nonsense. If non-white Democrats voted for him like the white ones did, he would have won the nomination.

Really.
 
Not putting down her accent, because I don't think it was the accent, but Melania Trump just said President Raygun, and now I want a sci-fi President.

I think President Ray gun was an epithet used by the anti-war left back in the 80s especially with respect to the Star Wars program.
 

zelas

Member
Everyone is talking about 538.

No one is talking about PEC.O

Guess who's publicity/business model is working?
Campaigns saying 538's numbers look almost exactly like their heavily funded internal polling says everything about its very specific set of detractors.
 
Campaigns saying 538's numbers look almost exactly like their heavily funded internal polling says everything about its very specific set of detractors.

didn't someone mention that internals that are "leaked" aren't actually accurate and are more modest than reality?
 
Nonsense. If non-white Democrats voted for him like the white ones did, he would have won the nomination.

Really.

Yup. White voters were pretty split between Bernie and Hillary, but minorities absolutely loathed the guy.

Bernie got his ass kicked all across the south, losing black strongholds like GA, DC, and MS by 80/20 and 70/30 margins.
 

KHarvey16

Member
I understand Nate's philosophy here. On the other hand, at one point he was projecting Trump to set a record for a Republican candidate in DC (far above any recent performance) based on a Google Consumer Survey with a sample size of 73. It's not a settled question whether you should include everything, nor is it at all clear that his corrections and weights are right.

The corrections and weights pretty much are the whole model and really haven't been changed much. Any good model feeds back results for tweaking when it's inaccurate.

I doubt the model uses one poll for the entirety of D.C.
 

Crocodile

Member
I cant believe Hillary is running against Trump, KKK, alt-right, Kremlin and the fucking FBI. Holy shit. I'm so furious.

Seriously. I can't think of any modern politician that has to put up with so much crap - even Obama and he had to deal with a LOT of crap. This woman is a fucking wall. I don't know how some people aren't in awe that she's still standing after all these decades. Like god fucking damn. Working under the assumption she doesn't botch the presidency (unlikely I feel) she's going to be a legend in human history.

Yup. White voters were pretty split between Bernie and Hillary, but minorities absolutely loathed the guy.

Bernie got his ass kicked all across the south, losing black strongholds like GA, DC, and MS by 80/20 and 70/30 margins.

I would say "didn't pass the sniff test to those demographics" more than "loathe" but overall the point still stands.
 

Debirudog

Member
I don't ever want to hear a peep about "Hillary was a weak candidate" if she wins. So much shit slanted towards her, holy fucking shit.

I want that movie already. She's fighting not just Trump but the FBI, Russians and right-wing bigots everywhere.
 

Boke1879

Member
I cant believe Hillary is running against Trump, KKK, alt-right, Kremlin and the fucking FBI. Holy shit. I'm so furious.

And she still wins.

In a way we should be kinda sorta grateful for Comey and his fuck ups. Without them the REAL journalists probably wouldn't have started to snoop around and expose all this bullshit.

Trump was right. It's rigged but not for us. The master of projection
 

Mizerman

Member
I don't ever want to hear a peep about "Hillary was a weak candidate" if she wins. So much shit slanted towards her, holy fucking shit.

I want that movie already. She's fighting not just Trump but the FBI, Russians and right-wing bigots everywhere.

Seriously. It's like a handicap match in wrestling, and she's still going over.
 
I'd say if you remember a world before 9/11 you are a millennial (and if you don't qualify for Gen X).

What about people like me who were ten when 9/11 happened and it had no discernible impact on them whatsoever? I didn't "grow up" until well after the effects of 9/11 had started to take hold. The only world I've ever been consciously aware of is the one after 9/11, and by the time I reached that point, it had already happened years ago.
 

Joeytj

Banned
Campaigns saying 538's numbers look almost exactly like their heavily funded internal polling says everything about its very specific set of detractors.

The campaigns obviously aren't saying this, but which reporters on Twitter saying that FiveThirtyEight's numbers are the most aligned with internal polling?
 
I'd say if you remember a world before 9/11 you are a millennial (and if you don't qualify for Gen X).
This is about where I sit on my grading of it, even though I'm not a big fan of "generations" in general.

Using myself as an example, I am old enough to be a millennial, but I have honestly no recollection of before 9/11 and so am missing out on a big part of the defining experience of that age.
 

kirblar

Member
What about people like me who were ten when 9/11 happened and it had no discernible impact on them whatsoever? I didn't "grow up" until well after the effects of 9/11 had started to take hold. The only world I've ever been consciously aware of is the one after 9/11, and by the time I reached that point, it had already happened years ago.
Gen Z or whatever the post-Millennial generation is called.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
And she still wins.

In a way we should be kinda sorta grateful for Comey and his fuck ups. Without them the REAL journalists probably wouldn't have started to snoop around and expose all this bullshit.

Trump was right. It's rigged but not for us. The master of projection

This is going to make a fucking fantastic mini-series down the line. I mean, holy shit, this is probably the craziest election in US history.
 

Revolver

Member
Melania saying a whole lot of nothing.

Like any of his family, she didn't give any insight into his personal character. Just a lot of campaign rhetoric. Anyone could have delivered that speech. You hear Bill, Chelsea and Michelle talk about their personal life to some extent and their relationships. The Trumps talk like Donald is an acquaintance.
 

Joeytj

Banned
What about people like me who were ten when 9/11 happened and it had no discernible impact on them whatsoever? I didn't "grow up" until well after the effects of 9/11 had started to take hold. The only world I've ever been consciously aware of is the one after 9/11, and by the time I reached that point, it had already happened years ago.

I was 14 when it happened, so I remember a bit more. My brother is younger than you (he was 9), and he remembers life before 9/11 too, although we both live on the U.S./Mexico border, when everything took a 180 ° turn on that day for us, in terms of security, paranoia and U.S. foreign policy. We noticed the stark change quickly, and so did a lot of other people.

I guess it also depends on where you live, race and other aspects.
 
Gen Z or whatever the post-Millennial generation is called.

I'm only 25 and now I'm Gen Z. I can't keep up with the labels! What does that make my sister, who is eight years younger than me, and has never not had a cellphone?

It's almost as if the generational labeling system is flawed by partisan response bias leading to systematic polling error.
 
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