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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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J

Joeytj

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
I'm wondering the same thing because that isn't close to what I've been seeing anywhere
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It's obvious, for example, that both campaigns consider Nevada a done deal for Hillary, and yet FiveThirtyEight still pretends it's a toss up.

And I still think Iowa will go for Hillary. That early vote is down from 2012, but it still should translate into a Hillary win. EV from Omaha is also encouraging.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Joeytj said:
The campaigns obviously aren't saying this, but which reporters on Twitter saying that FiveThirtyEight's numbers are the most aligned with internal polling?
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I haven't seen anyone saying that. There is a vox story explaining why 538 may have the best model but nothing about their model matching the internals.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
KHarvey16 said:
The corrections and weights pretty much are the whole model and really haven't been changed much. Any good model feeds back results for tweaking when it's inaccurate.

I doubt the model uses one poll for the entirety of D.C.
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At one point in time the only "polling" in DC was Google Consumer Surveys and 538 had a ridiculously high share of the vote for Trump (20-25% depending on the model). The numbers have since come down a bit based on other polls but that was clearly an overreaction.
 
H

Hindl

Member
kirblar said:
Gen Z or whatever the post-Millennial generation is called.
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Nope that's a millennial. Dates change, but it's generally accepted that millennials are late 70s-early 80s to about 95-96. Generation Z is after that, but at this point like others have pointed out, the concept of generations are becoming obsolete.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Manmademan said:
Yup. White voters were pretty split between Bernie and Hillary, but minorities absolutely loathed the guy.

Bernie got his ass kicked all across the south, losing black strongholds like GA, DC, and MS by 80/20 and 70/30 margins.
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Older non white voters. He did well with younger non white voters, even if he didn't win them over.
 
K

KHarvey16

Member
Box of Kittens said:
At one point in time the only "polling" in DC was Google Consumer Surveys and 538 had a ridiculously high share of the vote for Trump (20-25% depending on the model). The numbers have since come down a bit based on other polls but that was clearly an overreaction.
Click to expand...

But data starvation is solved with more data, which it got. That's how it should work.
 
C

clevbrowns94

Member
I hope the polls getting closer motivates people to vote. We would all like to see a landslide for Clinton, but any type of win is preferable to having a President Trump.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
sphagnum said:
Older non white voters. He did well with younger non white voters, even if he didn't win them over.
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Yes, he did better with younger voters overall, but he still lagged with minorities even in that aspect.

What I loathed is that many of them were introduced to HIllary Clinton as their rival (like I was in 2008) and while they're not pro-Trump, it will be hard for her to win them over.

I hope the theory that Hillary is much more popular when she's actually in office continues to be true.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Dierce said:
So did we get the other 2 NH polls yet?
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Just one. There's apparently a PPP poll out later today too.

And yes, for reference, Obama in 2012 also had a narrow 2 point lead in RCP average (for what it's worth) on the day of the election.

He outperformed the polls by about 3.6 points there too.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Holmes said:
I don't think that's necessarily true for all indies, but newly registered indies do.
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I was more thinking about if the surge in new independent voting might lead to a shock situation where they were mostly Trumpers.

But it looks like data shows them being mostly young people and not liking Trump at all.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
KvCN6Wh.png


FUCK
 
B

bangbang i'm a timpani

Banned
PBY said:
The Nate Silver hate here has been kind of annoying to me generally, but this is a good piece
http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast
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its too easy. here lets do it with gaf.

adjusted hate for gaf +8%.
here is 5 ways the gaf can win the election.
gaf is being undersampled and it may win the election
gaf +6% in boise idaho, odds of winning election increase 15%
here are 14 ways an fbi investigation of gaf can help them gaf the election
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Holmes said:
I don't think that's necessarily true for all indies, but newly registered indies do.
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It honestly varies state by state, as they each have their own wording and types of 'Decline to State' registrations. Registering as no party isn't the same as people saying they are independent in a poll.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
To be fair on the oppo, a while back I believe John Harwood quoted a GOP insider as saying that Trump's team interviewed him and knew two more pieces of oppo were coming. I cannot find the tweet, though.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Guys i know but I couldnt help myself. Rick Wilson is saying oppo coming tonight/tomorrow. Its result will either be "exile or prison". Media already has it, he's saying.

Rick Wilson‏ @TheRickWilson
I'll say it for the 10th time:

1. Media has the two story leads.
2. Neither was the story from yesterday.
3. I don't control timing.
Click to expand...
Rick Wilson‏ @TheRickWilson
@coalsmom I'm aware.
Lori S‏ @coalsmom
@TheRickWilson READ
Thomas C. Theiner‏ @noclador
Tomorrow it will be 4 days to the #USElection = two BRUTAL revelations about @realDonaldTrump will come out. After which: exile or prison.
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Edit: Hint towards oppo

Thomas C. Theiner‏ @noclador

As the @FBI has abandoned its job as the #US' counterintelligence agency, here is a hint what will break @realDonaldTrump tomorrow:
cc: #KGB
Click to expand...
CwVzXXUWEAAyGwQ.jpg
 
D

Dierce

Member
RustyNails said:
Guys i know but I couldnt help myself. Rick Wilson is saying oppo coming tonight/tomorrow. Its result will either be "exile or prison". Media already has it, he's saying.
Click to expand...

He is probably bluffing. If the media had it they would have already released it because in the end, the one that releases it first gets most of the views.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
I feel like every time Trump's starting to make things tighter the newspapers remember 'oh wait this guy is an existential threat to a free press' and starts looking for whatever nukes that can drop on his head.

cable news DGAF though.

also lockhimup
 
K

Kaiterra

Banned
DontBeThatGuy said:
Rick Wilson is either the biggest bullshit artist this side of Trump, or he's been completely misinformed... (or he's totally fucking right!)
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He seems like he's just trying to do the same shit to Trump that Trump is doing. Repeatedly insinuate something is out there that isn't out there so people just assume it really exists.
 
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