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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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B

BSsBrolly

Banned
Oppo would be icing at this point. I need something to keep it exciting, otherwise it's gonna be a slow 5 days till this is over. Plus, anything that harms Trump is a-ok with me. I've grown to loathe him.
 
Godzilla's Left Toe

Godzilla's Left Toe

Member
chadskin said:
NYT:
CwXFU30WIAAM201.jpg


Down from 93% a few days ago but much more comforting.
Click to expand...

It ain't 538 so who cares/
 
T

TS-08

Member
I think Wilson is just constantly under the assumption that there has to be more out there and keeps talking about this oppo with the thought that, if something damaging does drop, he will look good as someone who had inside info. If nothing comes out, he will just say the media must have gotten nervous about reporting on it for some reason. I don't think he actually knows anything beyond the rumors.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Manmademan said:
We're in a situation where the republican party is on the verge of the largest electoral loss since 1988.

The presidency has LONG been gone. The Senate almost certainly is, and there is a very real danger of losing the house on top of it.

The leaks aren't about winning the presidency, but stopping an unprecedented downballot collapse.

Before the Comey leaks there were numerous polls that had Hillary in the 10 to 14% range. It's NEVER been that bad, even Obama 08 was only 7 points...and the GOP is losing to the most villified figure on the right in the last 30 years.

This is a desperation play by desperate people to keep republicans from sitting out the election.
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Agreed but it just goes to show you Comey DID have an effect. And now the race is way tighter than it should and may help the downballot greatly and breathe some life into a party that really should be withering away this year. It's awful.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Guys don't forget Cesare been saying similar things and repeated it this morning. I guess we'll finally know today or tomorrow whether to forget it.
 
J

Jeels

Member
Ya this is wiki leaks levels of trolling. I'm in the no oppo camp now or if there is it's a whole bunch of nothing.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I knew the FL vote was way up from 2012, I didn't realize black voters were coming out in such larger numbers as well.


https://twitter.com/jeremybird/status/794233700279955456

Guessing we'd see the same in NC if they, you know, had polling places open that first week.
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Yeah it seems more and more like all the bad news we have been getting out of NC has been primarily due to the voter suppression tactics which is disgusting.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Hindl said:
Nope that's a millennial. Dates change, but it's generally accepted that millennials are late 70s-early 80s to about 95-96. Generation Z is after that, but at this point like others have pointed out, the concept of generations are becoming obsolete.
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i dont think theyre becoming obsolete just yet, but they are definitely more granular.

i think we need to split the current definition of "milennials" into 2.5 generations.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
RustyNails said:
Guys i know but I couldnt help myself. Rick Wilson is saying oppo coming tonight/tomorrow. Its result will either be "exile or prison". Media already has it, he's saying.




Edit: Hint towards oppo


CwVzXXUWEAAyGwQ.jpg
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Hmmm, Ok I'll go along with it, even if it's utter bullshit! Will help relieve my stress since I have two wisdom teeth removals today, lol.

Also, it doesn't surprise me that it's on a Friday, the oppo drop. I mean, the Comey letter and Trump tape were both on a Friday, so there you go.

If it's that "Trump was brainwashed by Russia" story again, unless there's video of him in Moscow in an orgy or of him praising Putin even more, then it's nothing.

He says it's two oppo drops. What's the other one?
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I think they said Keepin It 1600 records tonight, so there's a chance the oppo drop could hit tonight right when that wraps up.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Nevada:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

All the rurals still not in, but a deep dive into the Clark numbers soul leave Republicans feeling...blue.

I don't see how Cresent Hardy survives, and Danny Tarkanian needs a miracle. The state Senate races look bad for the GOP, as do the Assembly ones. My only caveat on the Carson City contests is the personal touch still matters.

On the presidential (and maybe applies to the U.S. Senate, too), some math still holds:

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes

Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it's almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge.

If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don't dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can't lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.

Deep dive:

Congressional seats are almost gone for the GOP. One almost certainly is.

CD3: Dems won the early vote by 400, lead by 6,800. 41-37, or 2 points above registration. Turnout is at 46 percent there, which means, I'd guess, almost 60 percent of the district already has voted. bad news for Tark.

CD4: Dems won by 1,300 votes in the Clark portion of the district (that's 85 percent of it), boosting the raw vote lead there to almost 19,000. That's 47-33, or a point below registration. Turnout is 43 percent there. I wonder where Ruben Kihuen will live in DC.
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B

Boke1879

Member
TS-08 said:
I think Wilson is just constantly under the assumption that there has to be more out there and keeps talking about this oppo with the thought that, if something damaging does drop, he will look good as someone who had inside info. If nothing comes out, he will just say the media must have gotten nervous about reporting on it for some reason. I don't think he actually knows anything beyond the rumors.
Click to expand...

I don't know if he knows exactly what it is but he's not the only one who's said there is more to come. I do agree that all the hyping often leads to disappointment but we'll see.
 
B

BadRNG

Member
RustyNails said:
Not necessarily. Media sometimes sits on stories to corroborate with sources.
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If it was truly the level of bombshell that Wilson is claiming it is, that it could send Trump to jail, I just can't imagine it being sat on for as long as it has been. Someone would either leak it or rush to get the scoop.

Dierce said:
Just throwing stuff out there. Would a photo of him and Putin together in the 80s be damaging?
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Not unless it's a photo of them getting intimate.

He'll just say he forgot meeting him once off or something.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Boke1879 said:
I don't know if he knows exactly what it is but he's not the only one who's said there is more to come. I do agree that all the hyping often leads to disappointment but we'll see.
Click to expand...
Thing is different people have been saying it. Cesare, Rick Wilson, Liz Mair, that guy who hinted 1987. I dont know what to make of all of it.

It could be a nothingburger. Or it could be something that doesnt have any evidence so media doesnt report it.
 
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