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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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G

gaugebozo

Member
Plinko said:
Counterpoint would be that Republicans are the ones who traditionally vote on election day. It would be about suppressing their vote.
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But look at how different periods affected the race:

MM_history-unlabeled.png


There aren't any discontinuous jumps. Things like pussygate and Hillary's debate performance slowly moved the needle over a period of time. Things have to filter through the news and people have to keep hearing about how awful something is. Otherwise they'll just stick with what their original plan was.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
PBY said:
Murphy isn't winning man.
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really? because I have more data for you.

This was yesterday.

latinos_zpslc5nihfg.png


and this is today.

So to that point, let’s dig a bit deeper. In Orange County, 29 percent of Hispanics who have voted were first-time voters. In Osceola, it is 31 percent. In Orange County, 55 percent Hispanics have voted in no more than one of the last three elections, a number that rises to 59 percent in Osceola. And many are registering NPA, not Democratic, which is why it is significant that yesterday, on the biggest day in early voting in Orange County, 72 percent of voters were Dem and NPA.
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http://floridapolitics.com/archives/226239-steve-schale-notes-tenth-day-early-voting-florida

So...latino turnout is up 139%. Looking at the county level, 29 to 55% of that latino vote is either first time or extremely irregular, meaning those people are not showing up on polls.

Every poll that you see in Florida right now is complete bullshit. Nothing is taking these voters into account.

You want to make the argument as to why these are all secret cubans ready to ticket split for Rubio, go right ahead, I'd love to hear it. Because if they're any of the (likely) 70% of the OTHER hispanic population that lives in Florida right now that hates him, Rubio is a dead man.

And this is before we address the black vote being up by 33%.

there literally aren't enough ticket splitting cubans that exist in florida to stop that kind of wave.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide

MIAMI — Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump by an historic 30-point margin among Florida Hispanics, according to a new bipartisan poll that indicates Latinos could play an outsized role in delivering the White House to a Democrat for the third election in a row.

Clinton’s 60-30 percent advantage over Trump with Florida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71-19 percent, according to the survey of 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International.

Trump, meanwhile, has relatively weak backing from Cuban Americans. They historically vote Republican but only support him over Clinton by 49-42 percent, the poll shows. And Hispanic voters of other national origins heavily prefer Clinton over Trump by 71-20 percent. The overall error margin for the poll is 3.5 points.
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Oh Mr. Wiiiilllson!
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
One thing I hope Democrats take from this election is that turning it into an "election season" of 2-4 weeks instead of just "election day" benefits them greatly.

All of these Twitter people seen to be banned off the service if there is no fabled oppo. Seriously. It's just cruel to do this to people. Democrats don't do this to one another.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Liz Mair ‏@LizMair Oct 31
Dem SuperPAC sitting on one of two last big, bad rounds of Trump oppo should drop it now rather than defending HRC on emails. #justsaying

Liz Mair ‏@LizMair Nov 2
.@kimpriestap @Flap Not the oppo I was referring to, actually. One piece I was referencing is (I'm told) still coming, other appears dead.
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One of them DOA? Damn.
 
K

KHarvey16

Member
Black Mamba said:
you can't. That's the point. At least in terms of the overall stuff. You can go into the weeds and make smart, educated guesses as to what to tweak, but that's it.

I will ask you again. If the model gives Clinton a 10% chance of a blowout while showing a close race and the result is a blowout, how do you know if it was a failure of the model or simply landed in the 10% range?
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In a state or overall? If it's overall - look at the states. If it's a state, look at other states. If you fall into the 10% range in too many states then start looking at your assumptions.

We also have more data to use than just the overall or even state results. What was the voter breakdown? Did our assumptions about how to weight polls based on demographics hold up when compared to who actually voted? Which polls were accurate and what did they use as a voter model? Are there consistent assumptions made across successful or more successful polls of a given place? Did we correctly identify those? There is no lack of data or things to evaluate using that data.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think it's funny we are fretting and wetting about Nh when I think we know we have NV and nc and fl look good.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
EmCeeGramr said:
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/794247777756860417

Huge, if true
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I cant believe I wasted time on this.

US Citizen runs NGO in Haiti. In the aftermath of earthquake, NGO get s caught smuggling children from Haiti to Dominican Republic. Clinton, as Secretary of State, was keeping abreast of the situation and drafted a statement regarding the NGO and how to get the US citizens freed.

Thats it. I'm done going down these rabbit holes that turn out to be nothing. Try again Assange, you silver haired fuck.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
RustyNails said:
I cant believe I wasted time on this.

US Citizen runs NGO in Haiti. In the aftermath of earthquake, NGO get s caught smuggling children from Haiti to Dominican Republic. Clinton, as Secretary of State, was keeping abreast of the situation and drafted a statement regarding the NGO and how to get the US citizens freed.

Thats it. I'm done going down these rabbit holes that turn out to be nothing. Try again Assange, you silver haired fuck.
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Thanks for doing it though.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
aspiegamer said:
One thing I hope Democrats take from this election is that turning it into an "election season" of 2-4 weeks instead of just "election day" benefits them greatly.

All of these Twitter people seen to be banned off the service if there is no fabled oppo. Seriously. It's just cruel to do this to people. Democrats don't do this to one another.
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I was wondering. How did this happen? Did election commission suddenly grow spine?
 
B

banefirelord

Banned
All this oppo stuff just reminds me of all the "insiders" promising that Red Dead Redemption 2 was going to show up at E3 and I was the saddest boy.
 
E

EmCeeGramr

Member
RustyNails said:
I cant believe I wasted time on this.

US Citizen runs NGO in Haiti. In the aftermath of earthquake, NGO get s caught smuggling children from Haiti to Dominican Republic. Clinton, as Secretary of State, was keeping abreast of the situation and drafted a statement regarding the NGO and how to get the US citizens freed.

Thats it. I'm done going down these rabbit holes that turn out to be nothing. Try again Assange, you silver haired fuck.
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i mean you could have just looked at the fact that WL is now directly linking to the_donald threads
 
E

Emarv

Member
Abortion story would be a decent one for all the religious right reasons mentioned, but again, we'd need hard proof. Not just people coming forward.

That's the case for all of the mythical oppo. No receipts, no importance.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Y2Kev said:
I think it's funny we are fretting and wetting about Nh when I think we know we have NV and nc and fl look good.
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I'm not really fretting much because I don't put a lot of stock in the idea that Clinton somehow is going to get hit with a pro-Trump wave as a result of the Comey letter because voters don't really operate like that.

I don't like casting aspersions on polling in general, but I've read pollsters comment on the fact that polling response rates for supporters of a specific candidate actually do dip after perceived negative news.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
StoOgE said:
Oh man, Deplorables have invaded this bar in Asheville. Talking about voter fraud and how Chicago celebrated the world series by having a bunch of 'coloreds' shoot each other. And they have a Hillary nutcracker that they shot with a mortor.

Never thought I'd want to be back in Texas for political reasons.
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Can you just go to the Funkatorium? I don't drink but that place is rad, and I bet the deplorables wouldn't go there.
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
Why the obsession over oppo?

She was looking to sell her candidacy on its own merits and was going for the upbeat/positive messaging before Comey Sneak Fuck dropped a huge mess on their laps on Friday. We're finally turning the corner on the media narrative, and this is time for the campaign to get back on message instead of waiting for some miracle panacea.
 
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