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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
jtb said:
what? why would he do this? just to protect his 2020 chances?
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If the Dems make decent in-roads in the House, then a few rogue Republicans from safe seats would be able to (combined with the Dems) make a deal to oust him if he doesn't tow the line and ignore the Tea Party crowd.

But here's the issue: if he does listen to the defectors+Dems, then the Tea Party crowd will primary him (his seat isn't safe enough for him to tell that crowd to piss off). If he tries to stay on as Speaker, then he'll either lose his seat or he'll be forced out as Speaker. Either way, if he doesn't quit something, then he's getting canned, and that always looks bad.
 
D

Diablos

Member
So I just heard that 60% of undecideds and independent voters were less likely to vote Clinton in NH because of the FBI letter? Is this correct?
 
R

royalan

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
If the Dems make decent in-roads in the House, then a few rogue Republicans from safe seats would be able to (combined with the Dems) make a deal to oust him if he doesn't tow the line and ignore the Tea Party crowd.

But here's the issue: if he does listen to the defectors+Dems, then the Tea Party crowd will primary him (his seat isn't safe enough for him to tell that crowd to piss off). If he tries to stay on as Speaker, then he'll either lose his seat or he'll be forced out as Speaker. Either way, if he doesn't quit something, then he's getting canned, and that always looks bad.
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But didn't the Tea Party just try to primary him? I thought he clobbered the guy.
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
If the Dems make decent in-roads in the House, then a few rogue Republicans from safe seats would be able to (combined with the Dems) make a deal to oust him if he doesn't tow the line and ignore the Tea Party crowd.

But here's the issue: if he does listen to the defectors+Dems, then the Tea Party crowd will primary him (his seat isn't safe enough for him to tell that crowd to piss off). If he tries to stay on as Speaker, then he'll either lose his seat or he'll be forced out as Speaker. Either way, if he doesn't quit something, then he's getting canned, and that always looks bad.
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Then if he does say fuck it.. who becomes speaker? A Freedom Caucus dillweed or a brokered dem leader?
 
N

nature boy

Member
Political Polls ‏@Politics_Polls 8m8 minutes ago
#Pennsylvania:
Clinton 47% (+1)
Trump 46%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%
H2H:
Clinton 51% (+2)
Trump 49%
@GravisMarketing 10/31
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Fuckin' dump of crappy polls.

I'm sure Trump 60% to win at Dopey Nate's model
 
M

Makai

Member
rsaqD6n.png


:U
 
C

Cerium

Member
Gattsu25 said:
....can someone translate this for me?

Who is the PEC? Who is bringing up the current Cubs victory and the potential Trump victory?
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Princeton Election Consortium, aka Sam Wang, who is much smarter than Nate Copper and runs his site for free and not for profit, and is therefore not incentivized to write dumb commentary.

Nate Copper wrote an article a while ago that argued the Cubs have less of a chance of winning than Trump. He now believes that the Cubs winning is proof that Trump has a real shot at the Presidency and he is spouting this drivel on his podcast while bitterly throwing shade at PEC.
 
K

Kaiterra

Banned
LOL KAYLEIGH

"Listen when we're talking about cyberbullying we mean what Monica Lewinsky went through!"

She is the goofiest and most desperate of these Trump surrogates who pop up on CNN. Parris Duchard tries to give her a run for her money though.
 
DietRob

DietRob

i've been begging for over 5 years.
Are we to expect some more Friday fuckery?

I feel we are overdue for an Oppo dump on Donnie.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
KHarvey16 said:
The 538 model weights and adjusts polls based on a number of factors. After the election you can see if the weighting was done properly based on comparing which polls were accurate and what voter models they used. If you favored a poll or assumed less bias for a poll that turned out to be very innacurate, you need to evaluate the assumptions you made. There are lots and lots of polls and each is evaluated for weighting and "unskewing", which means many opportunities to check your work.
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No...this wouldn't work. Why? Nate's model can never adjust for this perfectly because we don't know if the bad ones will become good in 4 years and visa-versa. It's impossible to know.

This doesn't speak to the model's design in any way.

Only considering the overall election result is neccesssry to your argument but doesn't make sense otherwise.
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My argument is there is no way to test Nate's model unless it is really fucking off. But in this case, that would be a Trump blowout.

You've yet to address my 10% question. How do you distinguish a Clinton blowout from the model saying a Clinton blowout is possible versus the model's inherent failure?

How do you test this? Saying "look at each state" doesn't solve this problem. It's like saying if my coin keeps getting heads to read the lettering on it.

Like, your argument defies the very nature of statistics. It's why Sam Wang throws shade and Nate (and Drew Linzer now too!)
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Did you read the story? The only have Murphy up 46 - 40 among Hispanics. There's no way any Dem wins in Florida with that kind of margin.
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Voysa Reezun said:
Alright, so how many points does Murphy need to be up among Latinos in order to offset Rubio's margins with white voters, in your estimation?
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NeoXChaos said:
You still need about 35% of the white vote in the South to win statewide and that escpially true in FL and is the only Southern(soon joining NC) state Democrats manage to do that however Latinos in FL are equivalent to AA's in the rest of the South. Meaning you have to keep your base of those groups to win.

Murphy 46-40 performance is like JBE getting the 35-40% white share he did get last year but Vitter got 46-40 of the AA vote. JBE would have lost with such a result

Murphy's not getting a higher percentage than 35%(white share) so he has to compensate that with the Latino share of which Hillary is getting and he is not. So unless he outruns her with white voters by 10% points(guessing) or suddenly miror Hillary in Hispanics he is toast
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Ok, I'm going to take this as slow as I can.

Every poll you see referencing likely voters in Florida is absolutely, totally, completely off base. This is why.

Florida's voting rolls, which include only active voters, increased by 737,822 since the last presidential election, and 43 percent of that increase came from an influx of 320,268 more Hispanic voters.

Many of those new Hispanic voters are part of an influx of Puerto Ricans like Torres who have been leaving the island's debt crisis in a mass exodus.
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http://www.naplesnews.com/story/new...grows-puerto-ricans-help-democrats/92841174/.

I've seen that number climb as high as 900K, but can't find the news story for that at the moment.

so since 2012, 700K new voters were added to the rolls, of which 40% of that is hispanic...primarily from puerto rico. None of these people are polled, because those are not by definition likely voters...and even for those pollsters with a more nuanced approach to who is likely and who isn't that goes beyond "did you vote in the last few elections", how many of those are conducting polls in spanish? Exactly. An influx of voters THAT large that does not show up on an LV screen completely fucks your model. no one is reliable.

On top of this, there's this issue.

Also, Clinton might be doing even better than recent polls let on because they did not oversample Hispanic voters.
In Florida, the Hispanic vote is largely split between Republican-leaning Cuban-Americans in the Miami area — whose numbers are relatively dwindling — and Democratic-leaning non-Cuban Hispanics, especially Puerto Ricans, whose numbers are skyrocketing in the Orlando area. So by under-sampling Florida Latinos, surveys can misreport overall Latino support, often in favor of Republicans because Cuban-American voters tend to have landline phones and are easier to reach for pollsters.
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http://www.politico.com/states/flor...ers-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717

Pollsters dont distinguish different hispanics from each other, which is a problem. Recent immigrants are harder to reach, so pollsters that don't specialize in latino polling tend to oversample the cuban population, since they are easier to reach and have landline phones.

So again...that 40-46 Murphy poll? Isn't accurate.

The massive influx coming into the polls aren't coming from florida's cuban population. Those voters (especially those trending republican) have been here for quite some time and are reliable voters. We're looking at recent immigrants that are NOT cuban and have no reason to ticket split for rubio whatsoever.

His favorability with non cuban hispanics (who are 70% of florida's population) isn't much better than it is for Republicans in general- which is to say, abysmal.
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
PBY said:
I listened to it.

That's not exactly what happened.
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I am being reductive, but immediately after they started talking about the Cubs winning, Silver once again brought up Trump and his underdog status, and referenced a tweet that he made back in March or sometime earlier this year saying Cubs will win and Trump will win. That, and his tweets from last night, and an article his website put up that said something a kin to "Cubs have a worse chance of winning then Trump" just further fuels how terrible of a pundit he is. As for the PEC shade, he said don't trust any model that has a 99% chance of wining. Why? Who knows, and unlike his own model, you can see exactly what PEC is doing and can verify or dismiss it and discuss it with the creator in specific and intellectual terms... unlike Silver's abomination that hurts these type of forecasting models.

Hell, how many times have we heard already this year that everyone missed Trump rise to power and Brexit comparisons and that it was an extremely volatile year because of this yoho's excuses for his own ineptitude. He spreads falsehoods to cover his errors.

Again, Silver would rather trust betting markets than he would his peers and statisticians and people trained in this.

Edit: dictated on an iPhone. Sorry for spelling and grammatical errors.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
M

Macho Madness

Member
So the Auto Alliance is doing polling this year: http://www.allianceesapoll.com/

Their partner?

The ESA

We are proud this year to conduct this research jointly with our good friends at the Entertainment Software Association (ESA), which represents the U.S. video game industry. Great cars and great video games – both driven by creativity, technology and a commitment to research – make life productive and fun.
Click to expand...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
TheLostBigBoss said:
This election is over, and has been over for a long, long time.

The Clinton campaign, you know, knows what it's doing. They know where to go. They have endless options of where to send people. They have internals that are run by the same crew that landed Obama a 4 point victory when public polling was either at a tie, slim Obama win, or simply Romney victory.

Do you see the Clinton campaign freaking out because New Hampshire public polling is showing a tight race? Does the Clinton campaign look like a campaign that is freaking out at anything right now? Donald Trump is the nominee they are facing, the understand that if he has a sliver of actual hope of being POTUS it would be GG for the Western world. Does it look like they are reacting that he actually has a chance? They aren't, because he doesn't.

The same thing that happened in 2012 is about to happen now. We're going to wake up on November 9th with a margin of victory many points ahead of current national polling, because national public polling is trash that is being used to drive up click bait or news ratings. What's the point of even looking at this shit if we have to deal with CNN polls that can't even get a proper number of hispanics in a fucking NV poll? Or a proper sampling of under 35 voters? It's insane, and it's so blatant that half of these polls are trash and thrown out into the wild because, shit, we got to talk about something!

Anyways, that's my rant. I'm tired of this oppo-droppo shit. If you guys haven't noticed, Trump is literally a horrible human being and we just spent the last six months going over how fucking horrible he is. It just turns out that as long as you slap an "R" next to someones name, a large portion of the population will vote for them, even if they are racist, sexists shit heads who are literally pawns of a foreign government that is our main global adversary.
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To be fair, they just announced today that Obama was heading to New Hampshire on Monday/Tuesday.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
If Ryan jumping is true then you have to think the rolling impeachment strategy is a lock. Ryan doesn't want to be Newt 2.0 and have his Pres chances hurt even more.
 
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