hipsterpants
Member
Tom Cotton
who is also a colossal piece of shit and I'm sure Obama would love to go out and destroy him on the campaign trail. The dude is legitimately evil.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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Tom Cotton
who is also a colossal piece of shit and I'm sure Obama would love to go out and destroy him on the campaign trail. The dude is legitimately evil.
Basileus777
Member
McMuffin is no Obama and until he gets elected Senator or Governor he's not someone who is worth considering on a national level.
Yep, been religiously refreshing the blog and twitter of his. Nevada is essentially already in the Clinton column.
Hydrophobic
Member
Yes he did. I'm pretty sure his primary opponent was garbage.
The overall number is nothing but the result from each individual state. Your rebuttal doesn't make any sense. If you look at the results of each part contributing to the whole of course you can draw conclusions about what led to an inaccuracy in that result.
Each poll 538 looks at is weighted and adjusted. Each one is an opportunity to evaluate results. Which polls turned out to best represent the final result? How did the model treat them? I am baffled how so much data would be useless in your eyes. These are the decisions the model is making.
I'm wondering if the Senate race is a big motivation on this decision.
I can only imagine how damn motivated he is to get sweet, sweet revenge for the GOP's obstruction on his appointment..
Worth noting that the sources are saying "the path to 218 is hard for him" and Ryan's team is saying he won't quit.
In other words, these are hostile leaks. Ryan's not saying he'll quit, people are saying they'll make him quit.
That said, I still think they will actually make him quit, especially if the margin is razor-thin. It's going to be interesting!
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
True. I'm sure that's part of it. I still think it makes sense when you have internal polls showing the race is close.
newshinycd
Member
Did he forget the third pair?
Hell no one is Obama. We were spoiled. He had generational political talent and he was clean as a whistle. That's a unicorn in the world of politics. Bill was a generational talent but he liked to get his dick wet too much.
Literally the worst his opponents could dig up on Obama was that he knew an aging hippy (Bill Ayers) and his pastor was an angry black man.
Manmademan
Member
and for the record, Mitt Romney won white voters over obama 59-39...and lost by about 75,000 votes.
Trump's share of the white vote in FL isn't any better- he's at about 58%.
This year white voters as a percentage of FL's population has declined, and you are spiking the latino vote by a conservative 100% margin over 2012 so far, with 365K more latinos showing up to polls vs. this point in 2012 and clinton is winning those voters 60-30.
If those new voters don't ticket split for Rubio (and again...why would they?) Rubio ends up getting steamrolled purely by the volume of new voters running to the polls and pulling the "D" lever.
Trump's share of the white vote in FL isn't any better- he's at about 58%.
This year white voters as a percentage of FL's population has declined, and you are spiking the latino vote by a conservative 100% margin over 2012 so far, with 365K more latinos showing up to polls vs. this point in 2012 and clinton is winning those voters 60-30.
If those new voters don't ticket split for Rubio (and again...why would they?) Rubio ends up getting steamrolled purely by the volume of new voters running to the polls and pulling the "D" lever.
And Hillary sent EMAILS!
A year or more depending on the state.
He can't, although the Mormon faction taking over the GOP would 100% be the best thing for the country.
She's not a generational political talent though.
Carpe Carnim
Member
What protects Ryan is that the Chamber of Commerce crowd won't support a crazy who is liable to shut down the government, or default on US debts.
Their power is waning since a couple deep pocketed sugar daddies can fund a whole swath of crazy house members, but they still do have leverage with the CEO crowd who open funding doors to the less crazy Congress-critters.
You fuck with the money and you may have a dozen R+5 Reps vote to enable a "Moderate" Dem as Speaker with the understanding Nancy Smash! is pulling the strings and setting the priorities for legislation.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Just take a look at this right here.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Ryan could be vindicated by a big Trump loss on Tuesday. The general sense I get from Trump supporters on twitter, little things Trump surrogates say on television, republican friends (who are #NeverTrump), etc is that they expect a very close election. As in something that comes down to one or two states, and if Trump loses all eyes will be on those who betrayed him (and voter fraud of course). It's a laughable idea but that's their reality right now. They really think this is going to come down to irregularities in Philadelphia or something.
Ironically this is somewhat similar to what many republicans thought about 2012. Rove's freakout was in part because he thought Romney could potentially win the popular vote but lose the EC, thus allowing republicans to further invalidate Obama. I haven't talked to many (honest) republicans who expected Romney to get trounced like that. I think a lot of Trump people will be even more shocked.
All that being said...I don't think Ryan will last long regardless. He's not built for the job and a few early losses to Hillary (Supreme Court, executive orders, debt ceiling, etc) will end whatever grace he has left with republicans.
MetalGearZed
Member
Just take a look at this right here.
laughing my fucking ass off
nature boy
Member
Oh look Trump to speak.
"Kompromat? Putin my best friend"
"Kompromat? Putin my best friend"
Wow. Such courage. He's going out on a real limb here.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Bingo-bango, they're not handing the keys for the asylum to the inmates.
He's only 40, so he's got plenty of time.
This was right after Andrew Sullivan declared that Trump is going to ride in to the WH on a fascist tidal wave that is sweeping the globe, so I can't blame him
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
This looks and feels a lot like 2012. Republicans in the last few days said they had internal polling that they had a chance in PA and other swing states. Joe Scarbarough and MIchael steele felt the mood of the country, and they wanted change blah blah
I'm telling you right now this will be a bigger win than 2012.
I'm telling you right now this will be a bigger win than 2012.
ThePrequelsSuck
Banned
This is what Ernst & Young has to say about Millennials vs. Gen Z.
Black Mamba
Member
The. States. Are. Not. Independent. Data. Points.
There is variable bias! And it's not omitted!
When I say there's a 10% chance of a Hillary blowout, that means the collective probabilities of these individual states equates to a 10% overall chance.
How do you distinguish between a 10% or a bad model? If you look at the individual states, which have much higher probability of being a blowout than 10% and when one state is a blowout it raises the probabilities of the other states of being a blowout, then how do you make the assessment you are asking to make?
The parts are all interrelated.
You're evaluating PAST RESULTS with no predictive power for future elections. Sigh.
I'm not saying the data is useless. And I'm not saying Nate shouldn't adjust his weights to polls after this election. He should.
What you don't seem to get is this aspect of adjusting the model doesn't actually have anything to do with whether the model's core algorithms are correct or not.
Here's my point. Even if Nate weighs every pollster correct...his model can still be wrong. Because his other inputs that are unrelated to polls may be completely wrong and there's no fucking way of knowing.
How do we test if the UE rate has an effect? How about jobs data? What if THOSE data points are the problem with his model???
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Basileus777
Member
What does the virgo vs cancer image say?
Manmademan
Member
that's not even a question. When democrats are straight up outvoting republicans in TEXAS, you have "historic election" written all over it.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I didn't know one of the top links at google news could be a link to rushlimbaugh.com, how is that news?
What the fuck man. These headlines are a disaster. It would be nothing short of a miracle if Clinton survives four more days of this.
What the fuck man. These headlines are a disaster. It would be nothing short of a miracle if Clinton survives four more days of this.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
This is what Ernst & Young has to say about Millennials vs. Gen Z.
lol That Gen Z description might be the biggest load of bull shit ever
Mercury Fred
Banned
Oh shit, what's she on tonight? (I watch later on the west coast)
MetalGearZed
Member
This is what Ernst & Young has to say about Millennials vs. Gen Z.
wait, so this whole time i wasn't a Millennial. �� 18
Basileus777
Member
What? Do you think google news rankings in the last 4 days are influential to the outcome of the election?
You and the four other users of Google News will just have to fight the urge to swing towards Trump.
She's right though. Banana republic-y.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Yeah, it's ridiculous. Especially giving them "Realist".
18 year olds are self aware and persistent? Yeahok.gif
Edit: 12-18 year olds self reliant! Lol
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah Republicans were bragging about how they were going to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If all they can do is muster a "Well maybe we can get over 270?" they're screwed.
Chris Hayes first guest tonight.
This is what Ernst & Young has to say about Millennials vs. Gen Z.
Why is Gen Z male jerking himself off
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