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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Retro

Member
This is what Ernst & Young has to say about Millennials vs. Gen Z.

Lemme fix that for ya'

WJKx2uw.jpg
 
I feel like you should get a Rubio avatar if he wins, but I don't have avatars enabled, so I wouldn't notice anyway

Slayven already wants me to change my avatar to something ridiculous if there's no landslide, so I'm afraid you missed the boat on this one.

But really...why are we treating Rubio as if he's an unstoppable juggernaut? This dude barely squeaked out a win with 49% of the vote in the 2010 wave year when democrats got obliterated nationwide.

PPP had His favorability at a whopping 30% in June, it's likely not much better now:

Rubio remains very unpopular in Florida- only 30% of voters approve of him to 49% who disapprove of the job he's doing. Among critical independent voters he's even more unpopular than he is with the electorate as a whole- a 26/55 spread.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/marco-rubio/

I'd love more recent numbers, but it doesn't look like anyone's really bothered to check on how much anyone ACTUALLY likes him as a candidate since then.

if you're counting on voters to ticket split to save his ass, I just don't see it.
 

royalan

Member
Hillary Clinton is massively unpopular in large parts of the country. In many situations running away from her is the right way to go. The idea that the Democrats lost in 2012 because they weren't sufficiently pro-Obama is something liberals tell themselves to feel better with very little supporting data.

It isn't so much that Dems lost for not supporting Obama. They didn't gain from not supporting him.

And the point about Obama is that favorables dont matter. The point is that if the Right screams loud enough, Dems run.
 

sazzy

Member
The FBI and U.S. intelligence agencies are examining faked documents aimed at discrediting the Hillary Clinton campaign as part of a broader investigation into what U.S. officials believe has been an attempt by Russia to disrupt the presidential election, people with knowledge of the matter said.

U.S. Senator Tom Carper, a Democrat on the Senate Homeland Security Committee, has referred one of the documents to the FBI for investigation on the grounds that his name and stationery were forged to appear authentic, some of the sources who had knowledge of that discussion said.

In the letter identified as fake, Carper is quoted as writing to Clinton, “We will not let you lose this election,” a person who saw the document told Reuters.

The fake Carper letter, which was described to Reuters, is one of several documents presented to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. Department of Justice for review in recent weeks, the sources said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-documents-idUSKBN12Y2WY
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That if she goes from leading in Michigan from 8 to 6 or leading in Colorado from 9 to 7, it doesn't matter.

Is 2 points "significant movement?" That's all I was referring to.
 

BadRNG

Member
How much could hilldawg do if we get the Senate tho
If we get the senate then in the place of a Dark Lord, we would have a Queen! Not dark but beautiful and terrible as the Morn. TREACHEROUS AS THE SEAS! STRONGER THAN THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE EARTH! ALL SHALL LOVE HER AND DESPAIR!

If we don't then I don't know, four more years of gridlock with nothing getting done? We really need the senate. Even basic stuff like supreme court justices will be difficult to get done without it.

goddamn, what is going on in this election.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I have to disagree they might be more obnoxious then Baby Boomers.

I taught hundreds of each group. Millennials were far, far more obnoxious. It isn't even a contest. Yes, they were also far more dependent and cared much, much less for others. I'm constantly shocked at how willing Gen Z is to go out of their way to help others.

I'm a Millennial, by the way.
 
@albamonica
What we know (so far) about HRC's final stretch before Tues:

PA
MI
OH
FL
PA (again)
NH
OH (again)
PA (again)

She's attacking almost exclusively states where there is 1) no early voting (PA/MI/NH) 2) there is early voting but it's tight (FL/OH)

No NC seems significant (and no, bedwetters, I mean in a good way)
 

Slayven

Member
Slayven already wants me to change my avatar to something ridiculous if there's no landslide, so I'm afraid you missed the boat on this one.

But really...why are we treating Rubio as if he's an unstoppable juggernaut? This dude barely squeaked out a win with 49% of the vote in the 2010 wave year when democrats got obliterated nationwide.

PPP had His favorability at a whopping 30% in June, it's likely not much better now:



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/marco-rubio/

I'd love more recent numbers, but it doesn't look like anyone's really bothered to check on how much anyone ACTUALLY likes him as a candidate since then.

if you're counting on voters to ticket split to save his ass, I just don't see it.

I told you Bandit Night Thrasher, people will think it is a cool avatar, but you will know it is a fraud
 
Feels like the 538 model is designed to tighten to 50/50 by election day.

I have no idea what the model is doing but that has prolly been mentioned here already.
 
I wonder if we'll see models take early voting into account next time around.

It's pretty clear NV is a lot cause for Trump, but it's still being humored as a potential pickup by him.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
She's attacking almost exclusively states where there is 1) no early voting (PA/MI/NH) 2) there is early voting but it's tight (FL/OH)

No NC seems significant (and no, bedwetters, I mean in a good way)

Smart. Biden should be wandering the streets of PA for the next week.
 
Tomorrow's Schedule:

November 4, 2016 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Get Out the Vote Hillary Clinton
November 4, 2016 Detroit, Michigan Get Out the Vote Hillary Clinton
November 4, 2016 Melbourne, Florida Get Out the Vote Tim Kaine
November 4, 2016 Fayetteville, North Carolina Get Out the Vote President Barack Obama
November 4, 2016 Charlotte, North Carolina Get Out the Vote President Barack Obama
November 4, 2016 Madison, Wisconsin Get Out the Vote Vice President Joe Biden
November 4, 2016 Davenport, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Iowa City, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Cedar Falls, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Omaha, Nebraksa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Pueblo, Colorado Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
November 4, 2016 Denver, Colorado Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
November 4, 2016 Fort Collins, Colorado Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
November 4, 2016 Keene, New Hampshire Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
November 4, 2016 Hanover, New Hampshire Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
November 4, 2016 Cleveland, Ohio Get Out The Vote Performance Jay Z
November 4, 2016 Boston, Massachusetts Fundraiser Cher
 
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale
Well the ex-boss comes to #DUUUVAL today & what happens???

Biggest single day of in-person early voting.

#ThanksObama

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale
Bellwether Hillsborough had biggest in-person early day since day 1. Dems go +1400

Overall lead in Hillsborough goes to 20k.

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale
Holy Broward County. Almost 40k votes. D's go almost +14k. Now have 161k margin.

HNGGGGGGGGGG
 

Nairume

Banned
Mori America finds herself alone in Ted's room. The player searches through his belongings. Wait, what are these strange ciphers and envelopes addressed to the San Francisco Chronicle...?
In the Donald ending, Donald forcibly grabs Mori America's pet cat, Small Government, and refuses to give it back until she lets him kiss her.
 

Diablos

Member
Even with the complete lack of EV in PA, I find it excessive to visit here 3 times, there is no way she is losing this state.
 

Kimawolf

Member
It's a good thing us Gen Xers are still around. Besides having the coolest label.. (Fucking Gen X is some X-men shit!) we also are the generation fixing the Baby Boomers issues while keeping you gen Y and gen Z goofs from destroying everything.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Tomorrow's Schedule:

November 4, 2016 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Get Out the Vote Hillary Clinton
November 4, 2016 Detroit, Michigan Get Out the Vote Hillary Clinton
November 4, 2016 Melbourne, Florida Get Out the Vote Tim Kaine
November 4, 2016 Fayetteville, North Carolina Get Out the Vote President Barack Obama
November 4, 2016 Charlotte, North Carolina Get Out the Vote President Barack Obama
November 4, 2016 Madison, Wisconsin Get Out the Vote Vice President Joe Biden
November 4, 2016 Davenport, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Iowa City, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Cedar Falls, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Omaha, Nebraksa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Pueblo, Colorado Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
November 4, 2016 Denver, Colorado Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
November 4, 2016 Fort Collins, Colorado Get Out the Vote Bill Clinton
November 4, 2016 Keene, New Hampshire Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
November 4, 2016 Hanover, New Hampshire Get Out the Vote Chelsea Clinton
November 4, 2016 Cleveland, Ohio Get Out The Vote Performance Jay Z
November 4, 2016 Boston, Massachusetts Fundraiser Cher
*ThatsNotFair.gif*

God, I love seeing these lists. That's just crazy.
 

Retro

Member
Again: I taught both groups. Your response is so far off the mark I can't even begin to describe how wrong you are.

I'm mostly poking fun, but ya' know... I'm sure you taught a great group of kids, but isn't that kind of skewed by being in a classroom setting?

I mean, I'm honestly more surprised when I see a kid who isn't starring at their phone, completely oblivious to everything around them. Walking in stores, in lines, even at freakin' buffets; heads down, stumbling along, consuming social media.

I ain't seein' it.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If Rs outpaced Ds in 2012 in EV, but then Ds won Florida, does that mean more Ds than Rs vote on election day? If so, I hope our NPA voters push us ahead.

P.S. Michael Buble SUCKS
 
Tomorrow's Schedule:

November 4, 2016 Davenport, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Iowa City, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Cedar Falls, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 4, 2016 Omaha, Nebraksa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders

Damn, Bernie's doing work down the stretch.
 

Effect

Member
Even with the complete lack of EV in PA, I find it excessive to visit here 3 times, there is no way she is losing this state.

Might be to keep morale high and people motivated. Especially if the strike is still happening in Philly. I wouldn't take any chances regardless though. I don't want a chance of a close win.

My major concern is I hope the increased early vote doesn't mean a dip on election day in these early voting states. Granted when have close to half of the voting population voting before election day the numbers should be lower. Just I don't want to see a collapse of any kind on the unexpected front.
 
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