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[JackDT]

So the FBI had the emails but supposedly it took more than two weeks to develop software to separate messages to Huma from the rest. Just enough time so the Comey letter hits 10 days before the election.

Give me a break. I don't even believe their existing software can't already do that, but even if didn't, I could do it in any possible archive format in like two hours. Any document management software already does it. Any library for any language, python, ruby, etc, could do it in like 20 lines.

I'm super creeped out that the FBI might not be that different than the notoriously sketchy FBI of the past. Thumb on the scale, more like smashing the scale.

http://www.decodedc.com/167/

This is depressing. In this podcast they keep checking in with undecided voters over time, four in total. One voter had decided on Clinton, but changed their mind at the most recent check in because they say they can't vote for anyone under FBI investigation. One voter had decided not to vote for anyone but is now leaning Trump after he heard the FBI had reopened the case he went Trump. "Dealbreaker. Nothing else is comparable. Nothing Trump has done is illegal. This is totally different. Criminal investigation. I trust the FBI. Don't you trust our FBI?"

 

[whyamihere]

Mook says they expect to win FL, NV, NC, in a conference call on Thursday, primarily due to large Hispanic turnout.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/campaign-trump-clinton.html

The Clinton campaign has also begun making supporters pick up tickets for large-scale rallies and concerts in person, rather than taking R.S.V.P.s online. The reason: It can draw them close to early voting centers and then nudge them to cast their ballots.

Smart.

And it's not that they expect to win NV. They think NV is already won, which, yeah. PoliGAF has been saying that!

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

So the FBI had the emails but supposedly it took more than two weeks to develop software to separate messages to Huma from the rest. Just enough time so the Comey letter hits 10 days before the election.

Give me a break. I don't even believe their existing software can't already do that, but even if didn't, I could do it in any possible archive format in like two hours. Any document management software already does it. Any library for any language, python, ruby, etc, could do it in like 20 lines.

I'm super creeped out that the FBI might not be that different than the notoriously sketchy FBI of the past. Thumb on the scale, more like smashing the scale.

http://www.decodedc.com/167/

This is depressing. In this podcast they keep checking in with undecided voters over time, four in total. One voter had decided on Clinton, but changed their mind at the most recent check in because they say they can't vote for anyone under FBI investigation. One voter had decided not to vote for anyone but is now leaning Trump after he heard the FBI had reopened the case he went Trump. "Dealbreaker. Nothing else is comparable. Nothing Trump has done is illegal. This is totally different. Criminal investigation. I trust the FBI. Don't you trust our FBI?"

Please. These people are fucking idiots and just looking for a reason to vote Trump.

 

[Joeytj]

Steve Schale said by Sunday night they expect 70% of total vote in FL to be already cast.



You really think this needs a custom software?

I don't know, maybe? The way it was described when I read it is that it's a special program they already had for searching emails like that.

What did you read?

EDIT: Oh, just saw Jack DT's post. Why is this a big deal? You think it's suspicious?

Anyway, don't trust people that suddenly tell reporters and pollsters that "Oh no, I can't vote for Clinton now that she's under 'federal investigation'" Bullshit.

 

[Holmes]

All three of those states will have over 50% of the vote in by the time EV ends so their data people would likely know one way or another.

In NV's and FL's cases, upwards of 70%, and their data team is good. They know who's voting and how, so if they're confident, then you should believe them. Allows them to divide some extra resources and time in states that don't have early voting in the coming days.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Rewatching 2012 coverage. Obama became President at 11:22pm EST I believe. I was pretty surprised it got called that early, really just 22 minutes after 2008 was called.

I wonder how this year will go.

 

[User 463088]

Oh, honey. There is so much.....

 

[SmokeMaxX]

When will people feel confident about Clinton's victory? When Florida is called? If ~70% of the vote was cast early, it should be called fairly soon right?

 

[kirblar]

When will people feel confident about Clinton's victory? When Florida is called? If ~70% of the vote was cast early, it should be called fairly soon right?

Yes.

 

[Holmes]

Trump is wasting his time in Nevada on Saturday. Early voting will be over and a good 70% of the vote will be already cast in the state. I know he knows (or his team knows) he's in serious danger in the state to put it mildly, but how can he win the state? Win the election day vote by 20%+? It'll likely skew more latino and young than 2012's election day vote. What a waste of time.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Trump is wasting his time in Nevada on Saturday. Early voting will be over and a good 70% of the vote will be already cast in the state. I know he knows (or his team knows) he's in serious danger in the state to put it mildly, but how can he win the state? Win the election day vote by 20%+? It'll likely skew more latino and young than 2012's election day vote. What a waste of time.

The are hoping for a big E-day turnout in Washoe yea.

 

[jiggle]

Mook says they expect to win FL, NV, NC, in a conference call on Thursday, primarily due to large Hispanic turnout.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/campaign-trump-clinton.html

Mr. Trump has tested his strength in unconventional places — one day in tossup states, another in Democratic-leaning states like Michigan and New Mexico, still another in states that Mrs. Clinton seemed to have locked up long ago, like Virginia and Colorado.

That's a, um..., very diplomatic way if putting it.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

LAT tracker moving back from Trump again. That's two out of three moving away from him in recent days with one showing no changes either way. We'll see what crappy old Ras has to say.

 

[davepoobond]

Rewatching 2012 coverage. Obama became President at 11:22pm EST I believe. I was pretty surprised it got called that early, really just 22 minutes after 2008 was called.

I wonder how this year will go.

i think we should be timing how soon the attempt at impeachment happens.

 

[User 463088]

The are hoping for a big E-day turnout in Washoe yea.

That's still insanely stupid. Biggest margin the GOP has managed out of Washoe in 20 year is 11k. Were already at 60% of 2012's turnout in Washoe. There just aren't enough people to make up anything. He's wasting time.

OH, FL, NC and NH is where he needs to be, and pray that Iowa just comes through for him. Even that's not enough, but a day out west is completely pointless.

Trump is wasting his time in Nevada on Saturday. Early voting will be over and a good 70% of the vote will be already cast in the state. I know he knows (or his team knows) he's in serious danger in the state to put it mildly, but how can he win the state? Win the election day vote by 20%+? It'll likely skew more latino and young than 2012's election day vote. What a waste of time.

He would have to win 90% of the GOP, and manage a 20% margin among independents. (Romney managed a 7% margin among Independents.) There's just no path here. I mean, I guess if tomorrow just falls off the cliff, maybe? In 2012, we won same day voting in Washoe and Clark (I believe). I have no idea why he is going West.

On Saturday, he's doing Tampa, North Carolina and then NV. He would be a lot smarter to do a second event in NC.

 

[sazzy]

I was very relieved to read that Mook was telling donors that they expect to win FL NC NV. They must have pretty strong internal data to be able to tell their donors 5 days out from election.

 

[Tranqueris]

I just saw that video with the NC GOP asshole and the handcuffs, I think the thing I want most now is for NC to go blue.

 

[sazzy]

Colbert dissed 538 on his show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALbnaCezgdM

 

[User 463088]

I know someone already posted Hillary's schedule. Here is Trump's:

Trump
ATKINSON, NH
WILMINGTON, OH
HERSHEY, PA

Pence
LANSING, MI
GREENVILLE, NC
MIAMI, FL


(That's it, he doesn't have anything else listed until Monday, so I assume they'll add more?)

 

[A Link to the Past]

November's gonna be really good for me; I may earn up to $2300 this month AND we're almost definitely getting Clinton and a blue Senate. Followed by vacation in December and some pretty decent progress towards things improving, life's taking an upswing

The only semi-realistic thing that could make this go better is if we won the House too.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I know someone already posted Hillary's schedule. Here is Trump's:

Trump
ATKINSON, NH
WILMINGTON, OH
HERSHEY, PA

Pence
LANSING, MI
GREENVILLE, NC
MIAMI, FL


(That's it, he doesn't have anything else listed until Monday, so I assume they'll add more?)

I believe his last rally on Monday is in NH.

 

[joebruin]

Anderson Cooper Challenges Conway On Melania’s Cyberbullying Speech: ‘Doesn’t This Start At Home?’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkTXeTuyueg
Is the Trump team not able to answer simple questions? Like, what the fuck is she talking about? You can see how even Anderson is baffled at her answers.

doing what she does best. deflect.

 

[Black Mamba]

That's still insanely stupid. Biggest margin the GOP has managed out of Washoe in 20 year is 11k. Were already at 60% of 2012's turnout in Washoe. There just aren't enough people to make up anything. He's wasting time.

OH, FL, NC and NH is where he needs to be, and pray that Iowa just comes through for him. Even that's not enough, but a day out west is completely pointless.

And Pa, he needs to be in Pa. Cuz getting what you said still has him lose if he loses Co, Va, and Nv without one of Pa, Mi, Mn, Wi.

We saw Romney doing this the final week last time, too. Those trips to Michigan and such.

But yeah, what a waste of time in Nv, lol.


He probably has a side piece in Nevada, though.

 

[User 463088]

And Pa, he needs to be in Pa. Cuz getting what you said still has him lose if he loses Co, Va, and Nv without one of Pa, Mi, Mn, Wi.

We saw Romney doing this the final week last time, too. Those trips to Michigan and such.

But yeah, what a waste of time in Nv, lol.


He probably has a side piece in Nevada, though.

Yes, PA too, mainly because there is no early voting. That's his best bet. I mean, he's fucked in Pennsylvania, but still. It's a better use of time than NV.

Also, I couldn't sleep (and my fiance has to be at work at 4:30 so I try and sleep after the kids are in school anyway), I rewatched the first debate. Jesus. This was a masterclass in debating. Just....flawless.

 

[chadskin]

Clinton down 11%, neither of them up 13%. Them emails!

 

[Diablos]

If the race is tightening because it was always going to be that way as Election Day draws near, so be it.

But if after all the dust settles there turn out to be more people who changed their minds and/or the GOP base stopped being so hopeless because of Comey, that's just infuriating.

You wanna talk about investigating? Rudy should be investigated for going on a major news channel and hinting with glee that he knew about what the FBI was going to do. He cited it as something they have at their disposal to turn the race around. This would at the very least indicate someone from a Presidential campaign was coordinating with a federal agency to influence an election. If Hillary wins she should go after him. It's sad that our politics is getting even worse but we cannot allow for this to become an acceptable thing during a Presidential election.

 

[avaya]

I would not be opposed to the CIA and NSA engaging in a clandestine operation against the FBI at all.

Fucking deplorable cunts.

 

[CCS]

The Economist burns are the best burns. From their endorsement of Hillary, about Trump:

His ideas on revenue and spending are an affront to statistics.

 

[Spiritreaver]

Haven't lost my confidence in Clinton since the first debate. I saw David Rothschild talk about the little impact of the Comey bullshit back on Sunday and he mentioned that polls might get a little crazy due to dems not responding, or pubs responding more. I guess I was mentally prepped to not get nervous over tightening polls. Now we see some polls drifting back to Clinton already. EVs in the most important states look really good too. I don't see what there is to be worried about.

Personally I don't think anything will drop tomorrow or over the weekend. Nor do I think it will have an effect on the race regardless of who it targets.

Safe to say that I'm ready to win this and move on.

 

[Clefargle]

I would not be opposed to the CIA and NSA engaging in a clandestine operation against the FBI at all.

Fucking deplorable cunts.

I wish I could say that I am confident Clinton will purge the FBI of partisan meddlers after the election, but I'm worried that she will take the Obama route of "looking forward, not back" and let comey and the others get away with attempting to influence an election.

 

[Diablos]

Haven't lost my confidence in Clinton since the first debate. I saw David Rothschild talk about the little impact of the Comey bullshit back on Sunday and he mentioned that polls might get a little crazy due to dems not responding, or pubs responding more. I guess I was mentally prepped to not get nervous over tightening polls. Now we see some polls drifting back to Clinton already. EVs in the most important states look really good too. I don't see what there is to be worried about.

Personally I don't think anything will drop tomorrow or over the weekend. Nor do I think it will have an effect on the race regardless of who it targets.

Safe to say that I'm ready to win this and move on.

We have to hope like hell nothing drops this weekend that would hurt Hillary. If it does, I would think today needs to be the day. If you're a deplorable leaky bastard, you'd want a full weekend for the media and Internet to munch on it before the week of election day for maximum impact. If we get through today without anything leaking I'd think our odds of heading into election day without any new distractions are good.

The polling is so crazy right now it's hard to say for sure where things will land. Even if it was just ultimately noise, several days of polling getting thrown off because of Comey is not desirable as it makes for bad optics. We just have to hope that it does not make a lasting impression on undecideds and independents who can change their mind, like that group of 5 people I read about some posts back. Hopefully that's not going on everywhere.

I wish I could say that I am confident Clinton will purge the FBI of partisan meddlers after the election, but I'm worried that she will take the Obama route of "looking forward, not back" and let comey and the others get away with attempting to influence an election.

Fuck it, this is war. She cannot allow America's Mayor to act like he lives in a banana republlic. The FBI needs to be purged and there needs to be a large scale investigation on Trump's campaign and how they coordinated with the FBI. People like Rudy and Comey need to be made examples of.

 

[sazzy]

Today is exactly 4 weeks since 7th Oct, when the Access Hollywood tape dropped.

 

[avaya]

My thirst for pure fucking justice on Tuesday night is unquenchable.

I will not be satisfied till she is sitting their turning the Supreme Court progressive as fuck with Ginsburg doing cartwheels.

I neeeeed the Senate in my veins.

 

[Diablos]

My thirst for pure fucking justice on Tuesday night is unquenchable.

I will not be satisfied till she is sitting their turning the Supreme Court progressive as fuck with Ginsburg doing cartwheels.

I neeeeed the Senate in my veins.

I was expecting 51/49 but I am thinking 50/50 is best case now.

 

[maquiladora]

I would not be opposed to the CIA and NSA engaging in a clandestine operation against the FBI at all.

Fucking deplorable cunts.

The FBI = a huge about of people. The problem is with Comey and an element within the FBI that are anti-Hillary but that doesn't mean the entire agency is....

 

[sazzy]

Wikileaks has officially gone insane.

I really want all the news outlets who have been covering Wikileaks to headline this now. Silly people...

 

[cartoon_soldier]

If NH is as close as yesterday's polls then Ayotte will win which sucks.

 

[Clefargle]

We have to hope like hell nothing drops this weekend that would hurt Hillary. If it does, I would think today needs to be the day. If you're a deplorable leaky bastard, you'd want a full weekend for the media and Internet to munch on it before the week of election day for maximum impact. If we get through today without anything leaking I'd think our odds of heading into election day without any new distractions are good.

The polling is so crazy right now it's hard to say for sure where things will land. Even if it was just ultimately noise, several days of polling getting thrown off because of Comey is not desirable as it makes for bad optics. We just have to hope that it does not make a lasting impression on undecideds and independents who can change their mind, like that group of 5 people I read about some posts back. Hopefully that's not going on everywhere.


Fuck it, this is war. She cannot allow America's Mayor to act like he lives in a banana republlic. The FBI needs to be purged and there needs to be a large scale investigation on Trump's campaign and how they coordinated with the FBI. People like Rudy and Comey need to be made examples of.

I agree, I hope she does hit them hard post election. Shit it would be even better if Obama did it. But I'm just worried with all of the "when they go low, we go high" rhetoric. If Clinton and the dems allow this normalization of partisan behavior by government bodies it will only get worse and if you think they won't do the same shit in 2020, I don't know what to say.

 

[Diablos]

Wikileaks has officially gone insane.

I really want all the news outlets who have been covering Wikileaks to headline this now. Silly people...

What the hell? They've lost it.

 

[Spiritreaver]

We have to hope like hell nothing drops this weekend that would hurt Hillary. If it does, I would think today needs to be the day. If you're a deplorable leaky bastard, you'd want a full weekend for the media and Internet to munch on it before the week of election day for maximum impact. If we get through today without anything leaking I'd think our odds of heading into election day without any new distractions are good.

The polling is so crazy right now it's hard to say for sure where things will land. Even if it was just ultimately noise, several days of polling getting thrown off because of Comey is not desirable as it makes for bad optics. We just have to hope that it does not make a lasting impression on undecideds and independents who can change their mind, like that group of 5 people I read about some posts back. Hopefully that's not going on everywhere.


Fuck it, this is war. She cannot allow America's Mayor to act like he lives in a banana republlic. The FBI needs to be purged and there needs to be a large scale investigation on Trump's campaign and how they coordinated with the FBI. People like Rudy and Comey need to be made examples of.

I agree there is more that needs to be done after the election, but I really don't think much "oppo" is going to dramatically change anything in 4 days for either candidate. People are set. People are tired of the drama. They just want to vote. Plus many have already voted.

EDIT: You can chalk it up to me being stubborn, oblivious, or overconfident. I don't really care. I just see very little point in obsessing over bombshells and dramatic turns in the race right now.

 

[whyamihere]

If NH is as close as yesterday's polls then Ayotte will win which sucks.

Hassan confirmed winner of New Hampshire then.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Hassan confirmed winner of New Hampshire then.

You think Hassan will win if NH-Pres is like 41H-40T?

 

[Protein]

Wikileaks has officially gone insane.

I really want all the news outlets who have been covering Wikileaks to headline this now. Silly people...

What the fuck?

 

[Diablos]

I agree there is more that needs to be done after the election, but I really don't think much "oppo" is going to dramatically change anything in 4 days for either candidate. People are set. People are tired of the drama. They just want to vote. Plus many have already voted.

1. We cannot afford more oppo. I'm inclined to think short of recommending indictment there's really nothing else that can move the needle much further but we're better off not getting anything else. Especially when...

2. Despite some unexpected tightening in places like NH that baffle me, polls seem to indicate there's little to no impact from Comey's letter, but what I fear most is that it boosted GOP morale if nothing else. That, and, while it's small, there's some evidence of super duper low info last minute voters changing their minds. I still think we won't fully know the extent of the damage Comey's shenanigans did until all the dust settles. Maybe by Sunday/Monday if there's no more oppo but even then, the polls are going to stop. We're not really going to know how undecided/swing voters digested it until the polls close on Tuesday.

3. Democrats are getting nervous. This time last week everyone was really confident. I hope this does not translate to depressed turnout when, again, on the other side, the GOP seems to be more enthused to vote than they were before last Friday. Sure, some Dems might not be responding to polls because they're upset, but does that mean they're still going to vote? When Republicans stopped after the pussy tape, we basically wrote them off as people who have given up on their nominee and aren't voting.

 

[Y2Kev]

yaaas godcohN!!!!

 

[Oblivion]

So mike Huckabee has thoughts on things:

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/794483288282955776?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[Spiritreaver]

yaaas godcohN!!!!

Systematic polling error incoming.

*snip*

*shrugs* Still confident and hopeful here. I'm riding this wave all the way until Tuesday night.

 

[whyamihere]

You think Hassan will win if NH-Pres is like 41H-40T?

I think you have an uncanny ability to say things and the exact opposite is true

And yes, I do think Hassan and Ayotte will operate independently of the top of the ticker, as they've done all year, because they're Hassan and Ayotte.

 

[Y2Kev]

Today is exactly 4 weeks since 7th Oct, when the Access Hollywood tape dropped.

But like why do they keep saying this? He demonstrably did not upend it. Can people not even rewrite the stories they wrote a week ago?

 

[whyamihere]

But like why do they keep saying this? He demonstrably did not upend it. Can people not even rewrite the stories they wrote a week ago?

Shh. No logic.