• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

Status
Not open for further replies.

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
oh no they don't realize they've already lost NV and CO and possibly NC.
Why would Nv and CO even take a long time? Doesn't he know about early voting in these states? It should be done quickly. Someone help the trump strategists please.
 
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 1m1 minute ago
Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago"

Why no Kompromat for morning shows?
 
Why would Nv and CO even take a long time? Doesn't he know about early voting in these states? It should be done quickly. Someone help the trump strategists please.

If I'm being charitable to them, I'd assume they'd mean the time zone difference from New York. But I know his campaign is run by people who aren't good at their jobs, so.....fuck that.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Unfortunately Rs are up too but some of that is attributable to registration. And go go NPAs!

Assume you are talking about NC. Obama today, right? SOULS TO POLLS FRIDAY
 

Pixieking

Banned
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/794508473706762241

Marc Caputo Verified account
‏@MarcACaputo

If trend continues, FL Dems will pass GOP by day's end in EVAB. GOP lead now 0.03% or 1,833. FL Playbook background: http://politi.co/2eGujI9

Suck it naysayers! :D

Edit: Enthusiasm dampened:

For some historical perspective, the Democrats also have reason to fret because in 2012 they actually led the GOP in pre-Election Day ballots cast four days before Election Day. Then, Democrats were ahead by 2.2 percentage points (about 76,000 raw votes of the nearly 3.5 million ballots cast). With that cushion four years ago, Obama beat Mitt Romney in Florida by less than a point.

I forgot about that, but still... The slim GOP getting slimmer is only good news.
 
Unfortunately Rs are up too but some of that is attributable to registration. And go go NPAs!

Assume you are talking about NC. Obama today, right? SOULS TO POLLS FRIDAY

Yeah, GodNate explains this in their tracker:

Democrats have a longstanding voter registration advantage in North Carolina, but a significant slice of them are conservative, older white Democrats who have been voting Republican in presidential elections.

There isn’t a realistic scenario in which registered Republicans would outnumber registered Democrats in the final count. That’s especially true in early voting, which is traditionally used more by Democrats than Republicans.

In 2012, Democrats had an edge of 48 percent to 32 percent in party registration among early voters, and a 44-33 edge in the final count. Since then, the Democratic registration edge statewide has diminished, in large part as older conservatives have switched to the Republicans. At the same time, newly registered voters who support Democrats have been far likelier to register without affiliating with a party.

As a result, the expected Democratic registration edge is somewhat smaller than in the past: 40 percent to 32 percent for the Democrats.

A lot of these Republicans used to be Democrats. And NP = more young liberals.
 
But same story here, no? Democratic registration advantage can be hidden by NPA voters that are surging like crazy.

Yes. That's why NC and FL polls have been good even though a cursory look at just party might not tell you that. Look under the hood and there's also race and age. That's why the Trump team thinks they're winning NC.

On your edited point, it also seems that the GOP has eaten into their Election Day numbers while the Dems are turning out more low propensity voters in FL.
 

Pixieking

Banned
But same story here, no? Democratic registration advantage can be hidden by NPA voters that are surging like crazy.

Yeah, the NPAs are going to break for Clinton, aside from some stubborn alt-right/GG types who think they're being clever anti-establishment wankers by not registering as Republican. I'm confident Clinton's got this sewn-up early, and by a good margin.
 

sazzy

Member
Oh yeah

Who is Kompromat?

zP3cPs.png
 

Diablos

Member
CNN headline saying Clinton's advisors frustrated about election being too close in too many swing states, frustrated that Trump remains competitive.
 
Keep in mind that NC has partisan primaries but allows non-affiliateds to pick. Since the Republican primary was so contested this year (and Trump such a magnet for some people), there was a movement by longtime Dixiecrats to actually change their registration so they could vote for Trump or the Cruz missile.

That primary was fairly early in the cycle and super close. So some of the GOP growth you are seeing in raw votes is coming there. The rest is likely motivated voters and (like in FL) a bigger interest by the state GOP to people to vote early.
 
Reposting the Kompromat/oppo rumors from yesterday for those who missed it:

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 19h19 hours ago South Carolina, USA
4. The second allegation is that Trump has paid for up to a dozen abortions for various women.

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 19h19 hours ago South Carolina, USA
3. The first bombshell is that US and British Intel have a video of Trump with two prostitutes. Both US and British media have this story.

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 19h19 hours ago South Carolina, USA
2. My understanding is that the media knows about both of these and has been seeking to corroborate them before going with the story.

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 19h19 hours ago South Carolina, USA
1. Many of you have heard of a bombshell coming out about Trump. A source who I know & trust has informed me of TWO such bombshells.

The video with prostitutes allegedly is the Russian blackmail, when Trump visited Russia.
Might not come out due to libel laws though.
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Lol CNN is the best.

Almost all the articles are like "we know Clinton is leading, but what if everyone is wrong? Click here and find out more"
 

gaugebozo

Member
Reposting the Kompromat/oppo rumors from yesterday for those who missed it:



The video with prostitutes allegedly is the Russian blackmail, when Trump visited Russia.
Might not come out due to libel laws though.
Libel is a weird reason. Because Trump is a famous public figure, you basically have to prove the story was a deliberate malicious lie to destroy someone.

"In New York Times Co. v. Sullivan, the Court held that proof of actual malice is required for an award of damages in an action for libel involving public figures or matters of public concern."

There's like no chance of him doing that considering how newsworthy this would be.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
We'll win Iowa. Have faith.

Just for fun, remember six years ago when this Senate class was up and fucking California and Washington were tossups? Good times, and by good times I mean everything sucked.

Iowa is the only swing state where I'm confident Trump will win.
 
Eichenwald's Newsweek piece on Trump/Russia is def. worth a read:

http://newsweek.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-hillary-clinton-united-states-europe-516895

Officials from two European countries told Newsweek that Trump’s comments about Russia’s hacking have alarmed several NATO partners because it suggests he either does not believe the information he receives in intelligence briefings, does not pay attention to it, does not understand it or is misleading the American public for unknown reasons. One British official said members of that government who are aware of the scope of Russia’s cyberattacks both in Western Europe and America found Trump’s comments “quite disturbing” because they fear that, if elected, the Republican presidential nominee would continue to ignore information gathered by intelligence services in the formulation of U.S. foreign policy.

Trump’s behavior, however, has at times concerned the Russians, leading them to revise their hacking and disinformation strategy. For example, when Trump launched into an inexplicable attack on the parents of a Muslim-American soldier who died in combat, the Kremlin assumed the Republican nominee was showing himself psychologically unfit to be president and would be forced by his party to withdraw from the race. As a result, Moscow put its hacking campaign temporarily on hold, ending the distribution of documents until Trump stabilized, both personally and in the polls, according to reports provided to Western intelligence.


...

The Russian penetration in the United States is far more extensive than previously revealed publicly, although most of it has been targeted either at government departments or non-government organizations connected to the Democratic Party. Russian hackers penetrated the White House, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the State Department. The State Department cyberattack, which began in 2014 and lasted more than a year, was particularly severe, with Russian hackers gaining entry into its unclassified system, including emails. (Clinton left the State Department in 2013, which means that if she had used its unclassified email system rather than her private server—a decision that has dogged her throughout the campaign—any of her emails on the government system could have been obtained by Russian hackers).

....
 
Share of the African American in NC vote keeps climbing, gained .8 from yesterday. Now down to -10% from 2012. Yes, this is partly polls closures, but also that Obama just isn't on the ticket and expecting AA vote share to outperform registration again is unrealistic.

If she keeps this up, the EV will be about 21% AA, which is what she needs.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom