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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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F

Fragamemnon

Member
This is from Guilford county, one of the hardest hit by the NCGOP's early voting changes. We're going to be OK guys:

iihxqvd.png


Two more days remain. AAs are actually beating whites statewide with respect to early vote turnout as a percentage of registered voters in their demographic.
 
Thaedolus

Thaedolus

Member
I'm just kidding I can take it to city hall which I'll be doing after work :p

My wife and house mates all sent theirs in while I had mine in my car. +4 queen and Kirkpatrick
 
R

rjinaz

Member
newshinycd said:
You're either a very elaborate troll or you actually support him.
Click to expand...

It's amazing how these " I'm not a Trump supporter" people always have positive and supporting posts about Trump, but you can never find any posts supportive of Hillary. Wonder why that is? I honestly just think some people hate labels.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
So can any of you masochists confirm that Morning Ho called journalists 'disgusting' today for insinuating that he has been pro-Trump?

I sure hope he jumps to TrumpTV when this is all over. But I have to assume he fears not getting paid if he does
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
BiggNife said:
I genuinely hope at some point after this election someone just throws Wang and Silver into a rooms and locks it for 12 hours

By the time the room is unlocked one or both of them will be dead
Click to expand...
Everybody's always talking bout Nate Silver and Sam Wang, but what about Drew Linzer? Doesn't he have the quantitative analytical skills to earn a place in your fantasies?
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Thaedolus said:
I'm just kidding I can take it to city hall which I'll be doing after work :p

My wife and house mates all sent theirs in while I had mine in my car. +4 queen and Kirkpatrick
Click to expand...

Also found this:

If you were unable to mail back your early ballot in time, you can skip the line and turn it in at any polling location within your county. The poll workers will be able to assist and show you where to drop off your early ballot.
Click to expand...

So people definitely have options.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I know this is late, but this:
Kurt Eichenwald Verified account
‏@kurteichenwald

Turkish president tells associates he will not allow US access to airbase used in war on ISIS if Trump is president.
Click to expand...

is crazy to hear. I wonder whatever allies do the same if it happens.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Everybody's always talking bout Nate Silver and Sam Wang, but what about Drew Linzer?
Click to expand...

I like Drew and think he's probably right but MAN it's hard to take anything hosted on dailykos at face value.

Plinko said:
I know this is late, but this:


is crazy to hear. I wonder whatever allies do the same if it happens.
Click to expand...

dude knows that nato is going to get canned under trump and is just getting ahead of the curve
 
G

Got the Shakes

Member
Guevara said:
Anecdotal:

My family in Florida said they are all voting early/absentee this year. Simply can't risk not being counted, and are concerned about potential polling place shenanigans from Trump supporters.

I could see the optics looking very pro-Trump with signs and supporters on election day because of this.
Click to expand...

I did the same in Michigan. Well we don't have early voting, but you can get an absentee ballot by saying that you can't make it to a polling place on Election Day, you're disabled, over the age of 62 etc. I live in an area where I don't think any polling place shannagins will happen but I voted absentee just to avoid having to go on Tuesday.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
IggyChooChoo said:
Everybody's always talking bout Nate Silver and Sam Wang, but what about Drew Linzer? Doesn't he have the quantitative analytical skills to earn a place in your fantasies?
Click to expand...

he's been the most accurate in 12 and 14, but his co-opting by dailykos may have rendered him unseen...

beaten frag stole my thoughts
 
A

AnotherDayAnotherDollar

Banned
newshinycd said:
You're either a very elaborate troll or you actually support him.
Click to expand...

Regarding your first three quotes, maybe sarcasm doesn't translate well on the internet.

I would still sleep fine with a President Trump, but it doesn't mean that I support him. I will vote for who I think is right - or not vote at all. I will never vote for a party, and I don't plan to vote for a party downballot tomorrow either. It is my right and my vote after all.

And since you looked at my whole posting history, your select pickings was just great to fit your narrative that I'm a Trump supporter.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
To my knowledge Drew Linzer and Nate Silver used to work closely together. I wonder what he thinks of Nate's model this cycle.
Click to expand...

He's discussed it a little on twitter. Mainly from the perspective of explaining why it's different to other peoples, more than criticizing it per se.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Florida
And it isn’t just that Hispanics are voting, it is the types of Hispanics who are voting. Here is one way to look at it: Right now, statewide, 16% of early voters are either first time Florida voters, or haven’t voted in any of the last three elections. Across party lines, 24% of all the Hispanic votes today come from these first-time voters. Among Hispanic Republicans, it is 14%, among Democrats, it goes up to 26%, and among Hispanic NPAs, a whopping 32% have no previous or recent voting history.

When you expand it out to voters who voted in one of the last three, which is what I define as “low propensity,” it goes up to 53% of Hispanic Democrats and 60% of Hispanic NPAs. That, my friends, is the definition of a surge.

Right now, Democrats hold a 117K vote advantage among all low propensity voters, in large part due to this Hispanic surge. 32% of Democratic voters so far are low propensity voters, compared to 26% of the GOP voters. But among NPA, the number rises to 48%. That’s right, 48% of NPAs who have voted so far are low propensity – and 25% of those are Hispanic.

In fact, of the NPA low propensity voters, a full 42% of them are non-white. That right there is the Clinton turnout machine edge.

One last thing on these NPA voters, right now, the overall electorate is 68.6% white, but among NPAs, that number drops to 65%. In other words, NPA voters are more diverse than the electorate as a whole. That almost certainly bodes well for Clinton.
Click to expand...

HNnnnnggggg
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
The choice of AZ over GA was presumably due to internal polling strength among Latinos (as it turns out, well founded). Clinton's team clearly wants to cement Latinos as a long-term voting block in their coalition. they are already looking to a brutally tough 2020 race (the current economic expansion won't last forever).

Really there's nothing that GA republicans can do to prevent what's happening to VA and NC in presidential races come to their doorstep. The demographic shifts are inexorable.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Guevara said:
I could see the optics looking very pro-Trump with signs and supporters on election day because of this.
Click to expand...
Depends. I think Republicans are cannibalizing their election day vote a bit with the new VBM system, and seeing how Hispanic and black turnout has surged over the past 2 days (and should continue into the weekend), election day voting might be more non-white than the electorate at large.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:
Regarding your first three quotes, maybe sarcasm doesn't translate well on the internet.

I would still sleep fine with a President Trump, but it doesn't mean that I support him. I will vote for who I think is right - or not vote at all. I will never vote for a party, and I don't plan to vote for a party downballot tomorrow either. It is my right and my vote after all.

And since you looked at my whole posting history, your select pickings was just great to fit your narrative that I'm a Trump supporter.
Click to expand...

"It's just sarcasm, guise!"

"Just joaking. Can't you take a joak!?"
 
E

Emarv

Member
I just remembered that on Nov 8 & 9 were gonna get a lot of drive-by "oops forgot to vote lol" posts, aren't we? Can't wait :/
 
R

rjinaz

Member
AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:
I would have no problem saying I am a Trump supporter.....if I were a Trump supporter.
Click to expand...

I think you're taking issue with the label of "Trump Supporter". You don't identify that way. Fine alright, no labels. Would you at least be willing to admit that you are a defender of Trump and his positions more often than not? And also admit that you almost never defend Hillary? I mean your posting history is there for all to see. Prove me wrong.
 
K

kevin1025

Banned
Melkezadek said:
How can you sleep easy knowing what a Trump presidency would mean for minorities and women? Or do you not care, since you can sleep easy?
Click to expand...

Taking a quick look at the post history, he says he loves "the Donald" quite a few times in other threads, but in PoliGAF threads plays games on who he might vote for. Best to ignore it.
 
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