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[Roland_Gunner]

How did Silver have more confidence in Obama winning in 2012, despite polls at the time showing a closer race than this year?

Basically Clinton's gains have come in places like Texas and Arizona where they only help on the margin while she has lost votes in key swing states like Ohio and Iowa. So more votes but not where they are most valuable. More here:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794318548961230848

 

[Plinko]

If she over performs her polls by 3+ points, she has a really good chance of taking Georgia.

I've seen this a lot on the board, but where is there evidence that Hillary will overperform polls? I keep seeing it in accordance with "Obama overperformed by such and such in 2012" but is that because he was a democrat, or because he was Obama?

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

"It's just sarcasm, guise!"

"Just joaking. Can't you take a joak!?"

That's the way I am. I like sarcasm and I use it often. Cry me a river.

I am ready for President Trump.
The Donald, I love you
The Donald is the best

Are all things I have said on this forum, and I will probably say them again.

 

[Fragamemnon]

There's also this model: http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Which is pretty cool in that it's all open source and you can see everything they do.

Here's an article about it http://www.slate.com/articles/techn...ure_will_be_reproducible_and_open_source.html

Just a reminder kids that r and rmarkdown are god tier.

 

[Cybit]

How did Silver have more confidence in Obama winning in 2012, despite polls at the time showing a closer race than this year?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/

To illustrate this, let’s compare Clinton’s current position in our polls-plus forecast -- which gives her a 65 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — to FiveThirtyEight’s final election forecast in 2012, which gave President Obama a 91 percent chance. How could the model be so much more confident in Obama’s chances than in Clinton’s, even though we projected he’d win by 2.5 percentage points nationally and she’s ahead by 2.8? Part of it is because there are far more undecided and third-party voters this year, which could lead to a last-minute swing, or a polling error, and makes the model more cautious. But Obama’s and Clinton’s chances of winning the popular vote are relatively similar in our forecasts (76 percent for Clinton now, 86 percent for Obama then) despite that. The difference comes mostly in the Electoral College.

3% undecided vote versus 10% undecided vote is the big reason.

 

[rjinaz]

+Halloween Masks
+Cubs Win World Series
+Rally Size
+Chinese Mystic Monkey


FUCK

Wait I thought Cubs winning was good for Hillary?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I've seen this a lot on the board, but where is there evidence that Hillary will overperform polls? I keep seeing it in accordance with "Obama overperformed by such and such in 2012" but is that because he was a democrat, or because he was Obama?

It's hard to poll Hispanics and young people. Who both vote mostly Democrat.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I've seen this a lot on the board, but where is there evidence that Hillary will overperform polls? I keep seeing it in accordance with "Obama overperformed by such and such in 2012" but is that because he was a democrat, or because he was Obama?

Clinton isn't going to overperform by 3 or more, that's a yuuuge swing but I do think she could come in 1 or 2 above the current average because:

1. Its pretty clear that her numbers from last Friday - Sunday were somewhat depressed by the Comey statement and are coming back around.

2. Hispanics are being under-counted in polls.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Wait I thought Cubs winning was good for Hillary?

No, because Nate Silver said if the Cubs could win, Trump could win too. They won so he will!

Or something like that.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

That's the way I am. I like sarcasm and I use it often. Cry me a river.

I am ready for President Trump.
The Donald, I love you
The Donald is the best

Are all things I have said on this forum, and I will probably say them again.

Dude, I don't care how you vote. I've done my part converting enough Floridian non-voters and soft GOP voters to cancel-out your apathy many times over.

 

[Iolo]

I genuinely hope at some point after this election someone just throws Wang and Silver into a room and locks it for 12 hours

By the time the room is unlocked one or both of them will be dead

Statistically?

 

[banefirelord]

New thread for new news?

Chinese mystic monkey picks Trump as next US president

Bill Mitchell just spontaneously orgasmed.

 

[Barzul]

Something I'll be curious to see if Hilary does win, is how much of an improvement over Obama does she cement with white voters.

 

[Already Torn]

Wait I thought Cubs winning was good for Hillary?

That's true, they finally won after more than a century, and to a racist organization no less.

 

[Melkezadek]

That's the way I am. I like sarcasm and I use it often. Cry me a river.

I am ready for President Trump.
The Donald, I love you
The Donald is the best

Are all things I have said on this forum, and I will probably say them again.

For someone who mmerely entered the thread to ask an innocent question, you sure seem to be sticking around in defense of your Trumpism.

You're telling on yourself and you just can't seem to help it.

 

[Pyrokai]

Beyonce and Jay-Z and Hillary in Cleveland tonight.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

That's the way I am. I like sarcasm and I use it often. Cry me a river.

I am ready for President Trump.
The Donald, I love you
The Donald is the best

Are all things I have said on this forum, and I will probably say them again.

 

[Laevateinn]

New thread for new news?

Chinese mystic monkey picks Trump as next US president

The handler looks pretty upset.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Clinton isn't going to overperform by 3 or more, that's a yuuuge swing but I do think she could come in 1 or 2 above the current average because:

1. Its pretty clear that her numbers from last Friday - Sunday were somewhat depressed by the Comey statement and are coming back around.

2. Hispanics are being under-counted in polls.

Obama over performed by about 3 points overall in 2012. It's not unheard of.

With Hispanic turnout surging and them not being counted in polls very well at all, there's a very real chance of another +3 or more difference between the polls and results.

 

[zethren]

That's the way I am. I like sarcasm and I use it often. Cry me a river.

I am ready for President Trump.
The Donald, I love you
The Donald is the best

Are all things I have said on this forum, and I will probably say them again.

You doth protest too much, methinks.

Either way, your sarcasm doesn't really add anything constructive.

 

[rjinaz]

Dude, I don't care how you vote. I've done my part converting enough Floridian non-voters and soft GOP voters to cancel-out your apathy many times over.

I'm with you. I don't care at this point that random gaf user is voting for Trump. He's losing. Whatever. I don't agree but free society.

I take more issue with people denying they have an obvious bias or even agenda. Just own it.

 

[Blader]

Didn't Hillary overperform her polls in the primary, or am I remembering wrong? Or would that even matter here?

 

[User 463088]

I've seen this a lot on the board, but where is there evidence that Hillary will overperform polls? I keep seeing it in accordance with "Obama overperformed by such and such in 2012" but is that because he was a democrat, or because he was Obama?

We can look back to the primary, actually.

RCP Ohio Primary polling average Hillary +8, she won it by 13.8
RCP Florida Primary polling average: Hillary +28.9, she won it by 31.2

But, it's a safe(ish) assumption to make even if we ignore the primary season. Hillary's group of voters are harder to poll than Trump's. We're talking younger, more diverse, fewer primary English speakers, etc. Plus, you can't ignore the ground game factor. And we do, in fact, know that it is working pretty well.

In Florida, for instance, the Republicans that are turning out are their core base of voters. They're not getting their unlikely voters to the polls. We are. Part of this is demographics voting against Trump, and the other part is, you know, we have people with the best brains on the ground.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

The handler looks pretty upset.

Trump and the monkey have similar colored hair. Are we sure the monkey wasn't trying to mate with the Hair Mouse's den?

 

[hipsterpants]

Oh fucking dope, apparently Kander is visiting my college on Monday. I might have to skip class and check it out.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@ElectProject 1m1 minute ago
CO #earlyvote update 11/4: Dem lead down to +6,656 (+0.4%) after good day for Reps close a net +7,616 on Dems

Still good for Dems.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Oh fucking dope, apparently Kander is visiting my college on Monday. I might have to skip class and check it out.

Kander is legit! I went to his rally with Joe Biden last week and he's such a terrific, fun and relatable person!

Spoiler

Doooooooo it

 

[Laevateinn]

Trump and the monkey have similar colored hair. Are we sure the monkey wasn't trying to mate with the Hair Mouse's den?

He is the son of an orangutan after all.

 

[Already Torn]

Didn't Hillary overperform her polls in the primary, or am I remembering wrong? Or would that even matter here?

I remember that too, that's why everyone was convinced Bernie was gonna take places that he got steamrolled in like Cali and NY

 

[Hydrophobic]

This gif is amazing.

 

[plagiarize]

We can look back to the primary, actually.

RCP Ohio Primary polling average Hillary +8, she won it by 13.8
RCP Florida Primary polling average: Hillary +28.9, she won it by 31.2

But, it's a safe(ish) assumption to make even if we ignore the primary season. Hillary's group of voters are harder to poll than Trump's. We're talking younger, more diverse, fewer primary English speakers, etc. Plus, you can't ignore the ground game factor. And we do, in fact, know that it is working pretty well.

In Florida, for instance, the Republicans that are turning out are their core base of voters. They're not getting their unlikely voters to the polls. We are. Part of this is demographics voting against Trump, and the other part is, you know, we have people with the best brains on the ground.

Yeah, I think the best reason to suspect she'll over perform her polling is the whole GOTV thing, and that the likely voter screening seems to have been under estimating dems more often than not.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Obama over performed by about 3 points overall in 2012. It's not unheard of.

With Hispanic turnout surging and them not being counted in polls very well at all, there's a very real chance of another +3 or more difference between the polls and results.

Maybe the RCP average or something but he was roughly 1 point ahead of the last 538 average. Which is still really good!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/?_r=0

 

[Finale Fireworker]

That's the way I am. I like sarcasm and I use it often. Cry me a river.

I am ready for President Trump.
The Donald, I love you
The Donald is the best

Are all things I have said on this forum, and I will probably say them again.

The issue people are taking is that you say these Trump things "sarcastically" and then, in complete earnestness, profess that you would sleep just fine under his presidency. Your supposed sarcasm is extremely disingenuous because it is indeterminable from what you actually feel.

In other words, you are not being sarcastic. You are being playful. There is a difference.

"The Donald, I love you" is not sarcastic if you do not actually condone his existence. At best, it is an exaggeration of the fact you are completely comfortable with him, which is not exactly an exonerating explanation.

We don't label you. You label yourself.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

About to go see what the line is, today is last day of EV.

Wife and I are white suburbanites. Doing our part!

Nice. Took my parents out yesterday, I like to do my rigging on Election Day. So +3 for nasty woman and stupid hat.

 

[RustyNails]

How did Silver have more confidence in Obama winning in 2012, despite polls at the time showing a closer race than this year?

Very simply he just looked at the raw data of battleground polling. If a poll seemed off, he called out its methodology. But stuck with aggregates and numbers. No trendz adjusted leader bullshit thingamajig.

I remember in 2012 (or was it 2008) Incognito used to troll poligaf by saying he has a awesome super poll modelling tool that would adjust, crunch numbers and predict who the winner is based on what you feed it. Its hilarious to me personally that Nate is doing that with a straight face today.

 

[gutter_trash]

Wait I thought Cubs winning was good for Hillary?

Back to the Future II referencing, Biff = Trump

 

[shiba5]

Trump and the monkey have similar colored hair. Are we sure the monkey wasn't trying to mate with the Hair Mouse's den?

I like that the monkey is kissing him on the lips. That monkey thinks he can do anything.

 

[whyamihere]

I don't think there's a secret group of Clinton voters fbf will cause her to overperform.

She and Obama had digital and a ground game. Thus, they overperformed.

 

[TumblingHippo]

Economic news is good, right? Imagine if the battle to take Mosul pans out this weekend. These both could cut directly into Trump's message of doom and gloom.

 

[Bowdz]

I like that the monkey is kissing him on the lips. That monkey thinks he can do anything.

And when you're a good monkey, they let you do it. You can do anything.

 

[newshinycd]

I did my part, come on GA!

Yay! I really hope GA goes blue this year. I still think it's possible, but its gonna be by a very slim margin.

Florida


HNnnnnggggg

Are Latinos are turning up like this all across the country? I think everyone here is gonna be really surprised on election night when it shows how much work Hillary's campaign put in vs Trump's haphazard campaign.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I'm with you. I don't care at this point that random gaf user is voting for Trump. He's losing. Whatever. I don't agree but free society.

I take more issue with people denying they have an obvious bias or even agenda. Just own it.

Trolling is an art. Homeboy is an amateur.

The complete flip in the Orlando-Metro area over the past 20 yrs has scared the GOP shitless. The drug of constant development and low-wage workers has come to bite them in the ass. They can't make enough angry White dudes fast enough to overcome the immigrants their economy requires to survive.

I love the irony of Boricua flooding into the state, and threatening to make GOP intransigence and outright antipathy towards the island's economic solvency a rallying cry to unseat them.

Chickens. Roosting.

 

[chadskin]

Economic news is good, right? Imagine if the battle to take Mosul pans out this weekend. These both could cut directly into Trump's message of doom and gloom.

And what is Mosul?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

And what is Mosul?

Jill Stein knows: It's a GMO created by Monsanto to keep her out of the debates

 

[tuxfool]

New thread for new news?

Chinese mystic monkey picks Trump as next US president

Of course the monkey favours the Orangutan.

 

[DrMungo]

How did Silver have more confidence in Obama winning in 2012, despite polls at the time showing a closer race than this year?

You hit the head of the nail here.
This is why I'm so disppointed with Silver this cycle. At this time; he was proudly flouting a ~90% chance of obama victory with a closer race.

Sam Wang as been my voice of reason.

 

[User 463088]

Are Latinos are turning up like this all across the country? I think everyone here is gonna be really surprised on election night when it shows how much work Hillary's campaign put in vs Trump's haphazard campaign.

By raw percentage, they're turning up even more in Arizona. Turnout in Texas is way up too.

Also, to jump off what Buffalo Man just said, I don't think there are secret Hillary Clinton voters. I just think there are people that are harder to poll, and these people lean overwhelmingly towards Hillary.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

What's going on with the betting markets? Big move towards Clinton overnight.

 

[TheCochese]

Standing in line right now. Two hour wait. Ugh.

 

[Miles X]

Standing in line right now. Two hour wait. Ugh.

Worth it!!!

Spoiler

As long as you're voting for Hillary ...