Support NeoGAF

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Not looking good for Evan Bayh

 

[TheCochese]

First time doing early voting. Haven't experienced wait times like this since I voted in the 2004 election in NC.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Beautiful PPP numbers for the Butcher.

And Sam Wang will eat a bug if Trump breaks 240 EVs.

Looks like we can all take off the diapers now. (?)

We'll be eating worse than bugs if he breaks 270.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Sam Wang on the Lawrence O'Donnell show tonight FYI.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Penn is ivy league right? I imagine all the students are in dorms.

I was at non-ivy but "sothern ivy" private school and we had to be in dorms freshman and sophomore year (though we got some exemptions the second)

 

[sazzy]

CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map a lot over the next day or so on CNN

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Yeah, that could be it for Bayh. He was the Dem least deserving of a win imo, though, so unless we end up losing the majority by a single seat, I won't be broken up about it.

Having 51 seats is way better than 50. With 50 if one senator is holding out for whatever reason you're stuck.

 

[User 463088]

My mom just said "I think I should take that out, because people don't like it when I talk about Christie killing the babies on that bridge."

She's back on script.

 

[Barzul]

CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map over the next day or so a lot on CNN

lol

 

[Carpe Carnim]

So he's a bedwetter?!??

Donny Jr. confirmed as PoliGAF member. Ok, fess-up. Which of you is Donny Jr? Is Erick here too?

 

[wumster3000]

That's the way I am. I like sarcasm and I use it often. Cry me a river.

I am ready for President Trump.
The Donald, I love you
The Donald is the best

Are all things I have said on this forum, and I will probably say them again.

You don't have to defend who you voted for if you don't want to. But if you choose to defend who you voted for, it should be valid points. If you like Trump, you like Trump.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

#Iowa
@EmersonPolling:

Trump 44% (+3)
Clinton 41%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%

Hmmm reading that article about secret female Clinton voters in Iowa, I'm starting to believe that it just might be in play. It's been taken for granted that Trump has it in his column.

Bernie's headed that way for some more rallies, so I think the Clinton camp has some decent numbers there. It's certainly worth the effort. Stop the bleeding for another cycle, and then Iowa and Ohio can slip off and be red states in 4 years (and hopefully we can lock down NC and make a solid push to flip AZ and GA, maybe AK too just for the lulz).

 

[Maxim726X]

CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map over the next day or so a lot on CNN

Ah, we could all use a little excitement in the final weekend. Right guys??!!??

... Right?

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Ohio's back. Thanks, adam.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map a lot over the next day or so on CNN

I...I have many questions.

 

[TheCochese]

Trump Jr reminds me of Uday Hussein.

 

[Blader]

It could come to that.

Hope it doesn't.

Although he has a 6% lead in early voting

Having 51 seats is way better than 50. With 50 if one senator is holding out for whatever reason you're stuck.

I feel bullish about Hassan, McGinty, and Feingold, and Duckworth is basically a lock. That's 50 there. Then I think/hope between Murphy, Masto, Ross, and Kander, Dems pull out at least one win.

My final prediction remains a 52-seat majority, though, with or without Bayh.

 

[Fragamemnon]

People with NV as toss-up are just plain trolling. Every political nerd on the internet knows that state is likely dem just from the EV returns.

 

[Already Torn]

This is both sad and expected. I don't think I could ever handle being famous. I'd go nuts. But it does support my belief that the entire Trump clan is bigly fucked-up.

I really do feel terrible for his entire family, it's like something straight out of a nightmare. But this story did remind me of this:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W7uaBjBJs18

 

[TumblingHippo]

CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map a lot over the next day or so on CNN

It's like they're assuming that Donald is going to get all the toss ups, even the ones where Hillary is ahead, and that Hillary's current number is her only number.

 

[Geg]

So I'm actually starting to get a little worried about Pennsylvania because I keep hearing conflicting info on whether they're going to suspend the strike for election day if it lasts that long. Hypothetical worst-case scenario, what's the plan if Clinton loses the state because people can't vote?

 

[BiggNife]

Trump Jr reminds me of Uday Hussein.

Eric Trump reminds me of Bowser from the live action Super Mario Bros movie

 

[kevin1025]

CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map a lot over the next day or so on CNN

Earlier this morning I saw them playing "what if" on Clinton leading states (ones she's comfortably leading) and just playing around on the board. On a worldwide news network. Handing Trump states just because, and seeing where the numbers lead. I turned it off, unsure of what I just saw.

 

[Poodlestrike]

After Strickland loses, can we please stop fucking around with him in Ohio? Nobody I know likes him at all. Even the people planning on voting for him are doing it purely because of party affiliation.

 

[whyamihere]

Weird dp

 

[eBay Huckster]

Gonna be funny when Strickland and Bayh lose and McGinty and Ross win.

gonna be funny when you post the same thing twice on the same page

e: pretend i'm on a browser that can actually input the devil emoji properly

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Hold me.

 

[BitStyle]

CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map a lot over the next day or so on CNN

lol
4 days left

 

[Basileus777]

I feel bullish about Hassan, McGinty, and Feingold, and Duckworth is basically a lock. That's 50 there.

That's 49.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

So, my mom is phone banking and she's gotten really good at staying on script. But then she heard about the Bridgegate, and she's decided to weave that into her pitch on the phone.

"So, if you want someone like Christie killing the babies on the bidge, vote for Trump then. If you want someone who won't kill the babies, can we count on you to vote early?"

I was waiting for this exact update after hearing the news.

I'm glad she realized not to do that..

 

[whyamihere]

That's 49.

Add CCM

 

[Blader]

That's 49.

Oh shit. I forgot Masto would be holding a Dem seat if she won. I've been off by one this whole time!

uh...so, make that prediction 51 seats, then.

 

[tedtropy]

CNN is begrudgingly admitting Hillary still has the clear electoral advantage, but that Trump could still cinch this if he manages to flip all of the swing states. What are the honest chances of that happening?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@alexburnsNYT Alex Burns Retweeted PublicPolicyPolling
PPP numbers today show why Comey mattered: Tighter presidential race means Burr, Blunt, maybe others might survive

Fucking hell.

 

[whyamihere]

gonna be funny when you post the same thing twice on the same page

e: pretend i'm on a browser that can actually input the devil emoji properly

Ughhh

 

[jbug617]

My guess of the next media story:

The race is so close so could the secret Trump voters bring him the election.

 

[BadRNG]

If our EV is so good in NV/NC, doesn't that bode well for the senate? How likely is a massive ticket split?

CNN is begrudgingly admitting Hillary still has the clear electoral advantage, but that Trump could still cinch this if he manages to flip all of the swing states. What are the honest chances of that happening?

3-1

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Its interesting that Florida is more contested than, say, NC. Florida has more of a mixed population, but the NC polls show Hillary up about 3 points.

 

[Grief.exe]

CNN is begrudgingly admitting Hillary still has the clear electoral advantage, but that Trump could still cinch this if he manages to flip all of the swing states. What are the honest chances of that happening?

Essentially zero, but HORSE RACE NARRATIVE

Its interesting that Florida is more contested than, say, NC. Florida has more of a mixed population, but the NC polls show Hillary up about 3 points.

FL polling is difficult due to massive Hispanic demographic changes.

 

[Fragamemnon]

I don't think the numbers in either the MO and NC races changed much before/after Comey (if anything, Ross had some good polls outside of that garbage SUSA poll for WRAL), and Bayh's unraveling is his own doing. I don't buy that the FBI stuff had a big influence.

Re: Ross in NC-one of the ways that Burr wins is by being acceptable to Republican-friendly unaffiliateds/AAs/Latinos that can't stand Trump. Look at the crosstabs of the PPP poll-you see that Burr is ahead of Trump because he siphons just enough support from Clinton voters. That's why we need a bigger Clinton win, so that slice of support isn't enough to get him across the finish line.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Its interesting that Florida is more contested than, say, NC. Florida has more of a mixed population, but the NC polls show Hillary up about 3 points.

Polling is noisy as fuck

 

[whyamihere]

If our EV is so good in NV/NC, doesn't that bode well for the senate? How likely is a massive ticket split?


3-1

Based on candidates?

Probably not a lot in NV, maybe slightly more in NC but that's just me guessing based on nothing.

I don't think the numbers in either the MO and NC races changed much before/after Comey (if anything, Ross had some good polls outside of that garbage SUSA poll for WRAL), and Bayh's unraveling is his own doing. I don't buy that the FBI stuff had a big influence.

Agreed.

 

[radios shipping overview]

My guess of the next media story:

The race is so close so could the secret Trump voters bring him the election.

My dad was harping on this the other day. He says, because current polls only focus on likely voters, all those Trump voters that are considered unlikely voters are going unpolled. Also, the Weiner emails are going to expose the pay for play at the Clinton Foundation.

 

[Basileus777]

I don't think the numbers in either the MO and NC races changed much before/after Comey (if anything, Ross had some good polls outside of that garbage SUSA poll for WRAL), and Bayh's unraveling is his own doing. I don't buy that the FBI stuff had a big influence.

I agree here, there's little evidence that Comey has affected Senate races.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

In a roundabout way, yes. It's less about what you pay for the dorms, and more about stopping dropouts and keeping retention rates high. Everyone at my university knows that the kids who drive home every weekend to go hang with their high school friends and just commute to go to class never stick around. It quickly goes from "I'll just drive home on the weekends and go back for class" to "I'll just drive in for the exams and stay at home" and then finally "I'll go back and finish my degree later."

The home bodies don't dive in, and they get too used to being in high school. You gotta immerse yourself in your new-found responsibilities or you'll just back out.

I always want to say how I commuted to school - 45 minutes each way three days a week - and I graduated just fine.

Then I remember what really happened. I was placed on academic probation after my third semester and expelled for my fourth. I had to write a letter of appeal and it was the first honest thing I ever wrote.

So maybe it would have helped.

 

[Knuckle Sandwich]

CNN is begrudgingly admitting Hillary still has the clear electoral advantage, but that Trump could still cinch this if he manages to flip all of the swing states. What are the honest chances of that happening?

No chance.

 

[Basileus777]

CNN is begrudgingly admitting Hillary still has the clear electoral advantage, but that Trump could still cinch this if he manages to flip all of the swing states. What are the honest chances of that happening?

@NateSilver538

Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton -- and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.‏

You can get more complicated about how you model the error, of course. But this is a good gut-check that Clinton's lead isn't totally safe.

Be afraid!

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I do tho think that if Trump wins NC, that means he will also get NH, Maine.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I agree here, there's little evidence that Comey has affected Senate races.

State level polling has been so sparse its really not possible to know what the impact was but in any race that winds up with less that a 1% gap you have to wonder.

 

[Maxim726X]

No chance.

No chance is unfair.

Infinitesimal is more apt.