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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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T

Trouble

Banned
sazzy said:
CNN updated its projection

Expect to see this map a lot over the next day or so on CNN

ibhmtg.png
Click to expand...

HORSERACE
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
re: college chat

my opinion of dorm life is colored by the fact that my worst year of undergrad by far was my one year in the dorms. like, my grades and mental health improved enormously as soon as i moved off campus and all of my lasting friendships started in that second year. i get the feeling i'm an outlier there!

re: the senate

still sticking with 52-48 with an outside shot at 53-47.

tedtropy said:
CNN is begrudgingly admitting Hillary still has the clear electoral advantage, but that Trump could still cinch this if he manages to flip all of the swing states. What are the honest chances of that happening?
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according to the GOD-SLAY model, approximately 50-50
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
One thing to note about Senate races is that they usually don't split much. One party generally wins the lion's share of them historically in an election. That's why I feel pretty bullish that even Bayh might stumble his way across the line.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
BadRNG said:
If our EV is so good in NV/NC, doesn't that bode well for the senate? How likely is a massive ticket split?


3-1
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It isn't. There is about a 90% correlation nationwide between Senate choices and presidential ones.

Ticket splitting is pretty much dead outside of a handful of notable exceptions like Grassley and probably portman this year.
 
T

talisayNon

Member
+2 Hillary in VA-10 me and my wife. +2 Luann Bennet. No on 1 and Yes on 2.

No idea about mayor / council I just penciled in the first ones.
 
B

Blader

Member
Fragamemnon said:
One thing to note about Senate races is that they usually don't split much. One party generally wins the lion's share of them historically in an election. That's why I feel pretty bullish that even Bayh might stumble his way across the line.
Click to expand...

Hillary isn't winning Indiana, so why would a lack of ticket splitting help Bayh win?
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Finale Fireworker said:
I always want to say how I commuted to school - 45 minutes each way three days a week - and I graduated just fine.

Then I remember what really happened. I was placed on academic probation after my third semester and expelled for my fourth. I had to write a letter of appeal and it was the first honest thing I ever wrote.

So maybe it would have helped.
Click to expand...

I don't mean that post in an insulting way! But yes, it always helps to basically strand yourself at college for the first year or two so you go to class and get into that habit. It's just way too easy to skip a lot when you're commuting instead of rolling out of bed and walking, and even if there's no attendance policy (I don't personally set one in my classes), you'll miss key information that may not be emailed to you. (E.G. I had one student email me a week ago because they skipped their weekly quizzes, and they just read the syllabus where it says that you can only miss a couple of them before your overall grade gets docked in addition to the zero for the quiz. Nothing I can do about that, but I mention it in class regularly. They just never come).
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Blader said:
Hillary isn't winning Indiana, so why would a lack of ticket splitting help Bayh win?
Click to expand...

I didn't mean split ticket-I meant that given a set of competitive senate races in a cycle, they tend to clump one way or another, historically. If there's any hope for Bayh, it is in that trend since it looks like we are going to be in the winner column of that clump this time around (NH/NV/PA/WI)
 
K

Kordelle

Member
jiji said:
My dad was harping on this the other day. He says, because current polls only focus on likely voters, all those Trump voters that are considered unlikely voters are going unpolled.
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Media in germany is pushing that hard, it's bullshit, right?
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I figured the map with Clinton over 270 would disappear. CNN needs people to know this is a DEAD HEAT before tuesday.

Also god damn you Bayh. Feels like we are definitely heading towards 50
 
B

BiggNife

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
There have been 270k tweets about a Wikileaks email that Wikileaks says proves that Podesta is involved in Satanic rituals.

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/794455959133298688
Click to expand...

I think the fact that THIS is what they're latching onto at this point is pretty much proof positive that WikiLeaks is out of ammo.

And to think there was a point I was actually worried by Assange's "our leaks are going to get Hillary indicted for sure" grandstanding.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Oh.

Rudy Giuliani said Friday that he knew the FBI planned to review more emails tied to Hillary Clinton before a public announcement about the investigation last week, confirming that the agency leaked information to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
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Fuck that entire campaign.

Giuliani has bragged about his close ties to the FBI for months, mentioning in interviews that “outraged FBI agents” have told him they’re frustrated by how the Clinton investigation was handled. And two days before FBI Director James Comey announced that the agency was reviewing the newly uncovered emails, Giuliani teased that Trump’s campaign had “a couple of surprises left.”

“You’ll see, and I think it will be enormously effective,” he said in an interview with Fox News.
Click to expand...
 
M

Maledict

Member
Basileus777 said:
@NateSilver538


Be afraid!
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This is really frustrating.

3 point polling errors do happen quite often. In single polls. That's why you don't look at any one poll, and look at the aggregate. And one candidate having a 3 point lead in the aggregate, and a continual lead for the entirety of the campaign, is not the same as a 3 point lead in a single poll!

I occasionally have to remind myself that Nate always engaged in bad punditry (go back and read some of his 2008 / 2012 posts), and that we've sort of ignored those in favour of praising him as a maths genius.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Basileus777 said:
That's 49.
Click to expand...

Hold NV. Trust the latino vote


Maledict said:
This is really frustrating.

3 point polling errors do happen quite often. In single polls. That's why you don't look at any one poll, and look at the aggregate. And one candidate having a 3 point lead in the aggregate, and a continual lead for the entirety of the campaign, is not the same as a 3 point lead in a single poll!

I occasionally have to remind myself that Nate always engaged in bad punditry (go back and read some of his 2008 / 2012 posts), and that we've sort of ignored those in favour of praising him as a maths genius.
Click to expand...
I've said this multiple times, he's the exact opposite of what he was in his book which is great!

You should still read his book. The stuff on weather is fascinating.
 
B

bigwinnerx

Member
I wonder how CNN would cover the 1980 campaign somehow try to maneuver that into a horse race that doesn't exist.

CARTER UP BIG IN GEORGIA

Did the media try to gin up a horse race or was that before cable ratings needed to be kept up so they didn't bother?
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Now we know the FBI has been leaking info to journalists, but can't campaign officials be compelled to reveal who leaked the info?

Because that seems highly illegal
 
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