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[jonjonaug]

I'm sorry, but 538's model makes no sense.

I was going to make a long post today on why his model sucks...but the above image goes far beyond what I know is wrong with his model.

The above is nonsensical. Nate's reputation is going to take a massive hit on the 9th.

Add up the numbers there. It's the "uncertainty" part of the equation.

Also the model works by simulating 10 thousand runs of the election. That poll probably barely moved the numbers at all and the slight drop is due to deviation in the simulation. Really he should be running 100 thousand or more sims I think.

 

[YuriLowell]

I'm starting to get a sinking feeling in my stomach.

 

[tuxfool]

CNN lied. Beyoncé is back on for tonight:

Can't do shit right. They're even using the horserace narrative on entertainers.

 

[Bowdz]

CNN is a fucking mess.

They don't call them Crappy Non-News for nothing.

 

[HTupolev]

Wait I legit thought everyone knew she was an artist and they were just being glib?

I mean, I assume some repubs out there probably thought John Podesta was literally summoning the devil, but people knew she was an artist and this was about her kickstarter dinner right?

They knew what it was about but were not being glib, because they chose (well, choose; WaPo's article won't change their minds because "liberal media") to interpret it as darkly as possible.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Guys

GUYS

I JUST GOT BACK

from 45 minutes in the future

There was no oppo

No oppo??? Bullshit.

I'm going to go back in time 45 minutes to warn everyone so we don't get worked up for nothing.

This was great.

 

[Manmademan]

Mind travelling back a few weeks instead?

Too risky.

I've only done this once before. safety not guaranteed.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

 

[Wiz]

What time does the concert start?

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

I'm starting to get a sinking feeling in my stomach.

about what?

 

[Chichikov]

I'm starting to get a sinking feeling in my stomach.

You got to have more faith in the queen.
Beyonce will be there.

 

[excelsiorlef]

The fact that we have a Watergate-style hacking event being operated along with a clear push from a foreign country to swing the election in its favor and we have almost no major media talking about it is absolutely insane to me.

Yeah but a woman wants to be President

 

[User 85168]

I'm sorry, but 538's model makes no sense.

I was going to make a long post today on why his model sucks...but the above image goes far beyond what I know is wrong with his model.

The above is nonsensical. Nate's reputation is going to take a massive hit on the 9th.

edit: Actually, it's probably the result of the Loess regression again. Which just shows how fucking stupid it is.

It's a display bug. It's not a +18. It's actually +7, and their last poll was +9. Thanks to Macho for pointing this out.

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_nov_2016_politics

Methodology might be whack, but it's consistent.

 

[titiklabingapat]

One always hated "nothingburger".

What a stupid term to catch on.

It makes me hungry.

 

[Suikoguy]

Yeah, "The OPPO" is not happening now.

If it anything it's unplanned and not by the campaign, they would have wanted it out there earlier today.

 

[Half and half]

I'm starting to get a sinking feeling in my stomach.

Well do something about it. Go vote...again.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

DAYS OF THUNDER OPPO

 

[Kusagari]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794659577115635716

Nate's lost it guys.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

If you look at the last Fox poll and this Fox poll just out, you'd think the last two weeks were a boring jog to the finish.

 

[alternade]

GUYS

CENK SAYS THE POLLS ARE SPIRALING DOWNWARD FOR HILLARY

IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BERNIE!!!!!

 

[Crocodile]

One always hated "nothingburger".

What a stupid term to catch on.

"nothingburger" is the worst. WHO SAYS THAT.

I've seen paid political consultants and noteworthy journalists use the term on air sans irony or humor.

We live in unprecedented times :O

 

[kadotsu]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794659577115635716

Nate's lost it guys.

Worked for this year's articles. The model should adapt.

 

[Basileus777]

A NeoGAF poster who worked with Obama's campaign before and some Republican strategists and campaign managers and Ben Carson had said for months that were two stories dug up by Hillary's campaign that were worse than "grab them by the pussy." These were referred to as the "oppo." The last few hours were the last possible time they could have shown up.

What if Cesare is Ben Carson?

 

[Black Mamba]

It's a display bug. It's not a +18. It's actually +7, and their last poll was +9. Thanks to Macho for pointing this out.

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_nov_2016_politics

Methodology might be whack, but it's consistent.

thank god it's a display mistake.

 

[Manmademan]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794659577115635716

Nate's lost it guys.

Jesus Matthew Dowd just straight dragged Nate over that tweet

 

[Already Torn]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794659577115635716

Nate's lost it guys.

FUCK

What are the chances this could affect PA turnout?

 

[Paches]

GUYS

CENK SAYS THE POLLS ARE SPIRALING DOWNWARD FOR HILLARY

IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BERNIE!!!!!

What about politics expert Jimmy Dore? What is he saying?

(Don't actually tell me)

 

[Emarv]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794659577115635716

Nate's lost it guys.

This is why people don't like Nate. All you have to respond is "that's not how we built it. something to consider going forward, but we believe in the model's focus on polling-only." Idk, you think if you run a major website, you wouldn't be so petty.

 

[StopMakingSense]

@Redistrict: Horrific new voter registration data for GOP in CA: since '12, Ds have added 754,000 voters, Rs have lost 308,000. elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/ror-pages/…

 

[Iolo]

My name is Oppo
I have metal joints
Drop me down
And earn fifteen percentage points!

 

[studyguy]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794659577115635716

Nate's lost it guys.

PUNISHED NATE

 

[Paches]

My name is Oppo
I have metal joints
Drop me down
And earn fifteen percentage points!

 

[RustyNails]

Wilmington, Ohio.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Jesus Matthew Dowd just straight dragged Nate over that tweet

I saw that and it was glorious! Other guys like David Rothschild and even Enten to an extent seem to be getting sick of the shenanigans.

 

[Basileus777]

@Redistrict: Horrific new voter registration data for GOP in CA: since '12, Ds have added 754,000 voters, Rs have lost 308,000. elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/ror-pages/…

California is set on making it impossible for Republicans to win the popular vote without a wave election.

 

[StopMakingSense]

California is set on making it impossible for Republicans to win the popular vote without a wave election.

And that alone should flip some seats in the house.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Try making Gato's rap make sense with the beat he has..

You can't do it..

 

[studyguy]

California is set on making it impossible for Republicans to win the popular vote without a wave election.

Demographics aren't ever going to be shifting back to GOP in CA with their current trajectory anyway. GOP here is a sinking ship going deeper and deeper as it stands.

 

[SexyFish]

Don't see the Fox numbers here.

 

[Setsuna]

"Clinton Drops Below 270 in CNN Electoral Map"

I hate this election so much right now

 

[Mercury Fred]

I'm starting to get a sinking feeling in my stomach.

Go volunteer at your local campaign HQ.

I just got done textbanking for a few hours and it made me feel great and I had fun chatting with a bunch of other politics junkies out in the real world. Good stuff.

 

[titiklabingapat]

@Redistrict: Horrific new voter registration data for GOP in CA: since '12, Ds have added 754,000 voters, Rs have lost 308,000. elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/ror-pages/…

Do they show which counties are adding them the most? I'm interested in it for the local Measure M prop for Los Angeles, which if passed, will double our current transit system. The last transit measure failed by just 15,000 votes, I believe.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Try making Gato's rap make sense with the beat he has..

You can't do it..

It's supposed to be a RAP?

 

[studyguy]

Don't see the Fox numbers here.

4 way?
lol

 

[Gaylord Sweetwood]

Sworn affidavit claiming voter fraud via absentee ballots in Broward County:

http://6889-presscdn-0-68.pagely.ne...loads/2016/11/Chelsey-Smith-SOE-Affidavit.pdf

What is it with Florida? 2000 all over again?

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

A NeoGAF poster who worked with Obama's campaign before and some Republican strategists and campaign managers and Ben Carson had said for months that were two stories dug up by Hillary's campaign that were worse than "grab them by the pussy." These were referred to as the "oppo." The last few hours were the last possible time they could have shown up.

Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[Manmademan]

I saw that and it was glorious! Other guys like David Rothschild and even Enten to an extent seem to be getting sick of the shenanigans.

I like the concept of 538 just fine, but it's becoming pretty damned clear that nate himself is thin skinned with some very strange opinions that end up working their way into the site's business no matter what the data actually says.

I have a VERY strong dislike of libertarians (even over bog standard republicans) because of the habit they have of ignoring human behavior and actual history in favor of ideology and theory- and it didn't surprise me at all when i found out Nate fell into this category.

 

[whyamihere]

Don't see the Fox numbers here.

Okay. Gah. Okay. Okay.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

I saw that and it was glorious! Other guys like David Rothschild and even Enten to an extent seem to be getting sick of the shenanigans.

People are 100% done with the bullshit.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

It's supposed to be a RAP?

I would say so.. but the point being is that the words to match up with the rhythm and beat of the music.. it's weird.