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[Bowdz]

ABC just put out a new tracker? Huh? 47-43.

Who's up in the poll? Did Allepo make a late surge against Rocky de la Fuente to take the lead 47-43?

 

[User1608]

So what we're looking at here is the polls trying to get back to 2012 numbers, which means we're in for about a 3-4 point Clinton win and over 300 EVs

This is what I'm thinking too and why I'm not concerned. Would I love a blowout ala 2008? Absolutely! But a win is a win and as long as Hillary becomes POTUS, that's enough for me.

 

[Y2Kev]

So...I have no idea what national numbers are like now. Lol.

Mademan or whatever, how in the world are you so confident?

 

[Kevinroc]

ABC just put out a new tracker? Huh? 47-43.

https://twitter.com/karentravers/status/794668544768217088

NEW @ABC-WP tracker: Clinton 47 Trump 43. Support for Trump has slipped to lowest in 10 days, enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has recovered

 

[Roland_Gunner]

ABC just put out a new tracker? Huh? 47-43.

ABC clearly thinks that Clinton's over her Comey dip. Hope they're right.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Likely final polls:

C+3 CBS/NYT
C+2 Fox
C+1 Marist
C+4 ABC (Tracker)

Only CNN/ORC, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth and Qpac left as far as significant pollsters

 

[Ac30]

The models you've been looking at are bad.

She has already won Nevada meaning she has 270 without NH

Donald Trump is "potentially" about to be elected in the same way that Jill Stein and "Deez Nuts" are potentially about to be elected.



The models you've been looking at are LOLworthy. She's already at 270 in states where she's comfortably ahead by 6+ points in "likely" voters...while first time and unlikely voters are breaking records in the early vote.

I gotta get off 538. It's gonna give me anxiety attacks at this rate. Thanks all.

 

[Beefy]

Gay Trump supporter is insane

 

[Manmademan]

So...I have no idea what national numbers are like now. Lol.

Mademan or whatever, how in the world are you so confident?

I only read print media.

Those of you that sit in front of CNN or whatever all day get some crazy fucking ideas.

 

[Already Torn]

"Acid bleach?"

I'm never not mortified that U.S. politicians consistently demonstrate a sub-junior high level of scientific knowledge.

To be fair, based on his face he was having a legit brain malfunction when he said that.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Likely final polls:

C+3 CBS/NYT
C+2 Fox
C+1 Marist
C+4 ABC (Tracker)

Only CNN/ORC, NBC/WSJ, Monmouth and Qpac left as far as significant pollsters

Have any of them said these are final? CBS came out a week ago, they may be in field one last time.

 

[SexyFish]

Trump always has a way with words.

Edit: LOL

 

[Debirudog]

Gay Trump supporter is insane

What a disgrace.

 

[Kusagari]

I just don't get Nate's model. Hillary up by a huge amount in VA lowers her chances, close polls with leads in states like NH lower her chances.

But Trump almost universally gets boosts from performing like shit in states that should be locks like AZ, GA and UT.

 

[somedevil]

Marist:

Hillary+1, ugh.



SEXUAL ASSAULT IS ILLEGAL YOU DUMBFUCK VOTERS.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635048.html

Its 2 for 2 way and 3 points for RV in 2 way.

Also, I was looking at the tabs for likely they have blacks and latino at 9% percent of the electorate. Also, in RV the latino split is 56 for clinton and 33 for trump which doesn't make sense. Do they weight for that?

Also, in the story someone said this to a reporter:

“I’m sure she’s had people killed, there’s no doubt in my mind,” said John Hoke, 61, a programmer from Mount Holly, N.C. who is voting for Trump. He described Clinton an “evil person” who has “been that way ever since she was born.”

Get this man some help.

 

[Y2Kev]

Have any of them said these are final? CBS came out a week ago, they may be in field one last time.

CBS came out on the last hopium day, not a week ago. Was Wednesday.

 

[Y2Kev]

I just don't get Nate's model. Hillary up by a huge amount in VA lowers her chances, close polls with leads in states like NH lower her chances.

But Trump almost universally gets boosts from performing like shit in states that should be locks like AZ, GA and UT.

Again it's uncertainty. But what I don't understand is why there's no time value of close polls late. Being +2 in August sucks, being +2 with two days to go should be good.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I can believe Donald Trump is potentially about to be elected president. What in the ever-loving fuck are people thinking?

You're living through a unique moment in the world's history. Never has a Democratic world superpower gone through a peaceful demographic change of the magnitude we're experiencing.

Between the shock of 9/11 and the wars that followed, a major worldwide economic collapse, continued Globalization of resources and the ascendancy, and butressing, of the Obama coalition, White folks have lost their damn minds and turned to an authoritarian strongman for some sense of stability and normalcy. Ironically that "stability" must be preceeded by massive change that is no longer electorally feasible.

This is history that will be looked upon in later decades as a watershed moment. You get to experience it first hand, while sharing it, in real-time with much of the rest of the world.

This is the moment a major American party starts a decline towards coming apart. The results will be halting and somewhat frightening, but the outcome will be no less monumental. Take it all in, because you'll tell this story to future generations in our Climate Bunkers.

 

[Dishwalla]

Gay Trump supporter is insane

So like he has those rights but he's not interested in keeping them? Okay bud.

 

[Manmademan]

Its 2 for 2 way and 3 points for RV in 2 way.

Also, I was looking at the tabs for likely they have blacks and latino at 9% percent of the electorate. Also, in RV the latino split is 56 for clinton and 33 for trump which doesn't make sense. Do they weight for that?

Also, in the story someone said this to a reporter:



Get this man some help.

I find ridiculous assumptions about minority turnout is REALLY common with a lot of the garbage polls. First thing I look for.

 

[Black Mamba]

Again it's uncertainty. But what I don't understand is why there's no time value of close polls late. Being +2 in August sucks, being +2 with two days to go should be good.

It's not just uncertainty. It's the trend line.

 

[Hooligan69]

Trump always has a way with words.

Edit: LOL

Global Warming Payments... now that's a new one.

Bigly payments to the UN. Something going on there.

 

[Grexeno]

It's not just uncertainty. It's the trend line.

Trendz

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I just don't get Nate's model. Hillary up by a huge amount in VA lowers her chances, close polls with leads in states like NH lower her chances.

But Trump almost universally gets boosts from performing like shit in states that should be locks like AZ, GA and UT.

If two weeks ago Clinton was ahead in Virginia by 10 and behind in Alabama by 15 and the same poll comes out today showing her ahead in VA by 7 and down in AL by 20 the model thinks 'Trump has momentum!' and moves towards him even though nothing about the two states has really changed. I don't know why the recent GA polls haven't had the opposite effect. Its like Silver crammed so much stuff into the model that it produces contradictory outcomes.

 

[kevin1025]

Trump always has a way with words.

Edit: LOL

.....is that second one real life...?

 

[KMS]

I hope Trump speak and lingo dies with his canadicy.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Well, if Silver's model will be 50/50 on Monday, he will be alone because the betting markets are bullish on Clinton today for some reason. Big payoff or big failure, we'll see.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Well, if Silver's model will be 50/50 on Monday, he will be alone because the betting markets are bullish on Clinton today for some reason. Big payoff or big failure, we'll see.

Will he will put out a solid projection for how the states and election play out in the end? Otherwise he can show Clinton at 1% and claim the outcome was just unlikely, but possible in the model.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Well, if Silver's model will be 50/50 on Monday, he will be alone because the betting markets are bullish on Clinton today for some reason. Big payoff or big failure, we'll see.

The prediction markets are looking at the early voting totals, which 538 reasonably excluded. I have no idea how to weight that versus polling data either but its pretty clear that Clinton is winning the ground war in Nevada and Florida.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Will he will put out a solid projection for how the states and election play out in the end? Otherwise he can show Clinton at 1% and claim the outcome was just unlikely, but possible in the model.

He'll just shrug and say it's not his fault the polls were crap.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

 

[Retro]

Gay Trump supporter is insane

.. he does know what the "T" in LGBT means, and why you can't take a shit in peace in certain states because of it, right?

I mean, this is one of the weirdest examples of "Fuck you, I got mine" I've seen.

 

[Grexeno]

Can enthusiasm really be this swingy

 

[Mugsy]

Do the polls stop coming in at some point? The pollsters would stop running new polls obviously but they have to take time to process them anyways. When do we expect the polls to start drying up?

 

[Roland_Gunner]

U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia's electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin's command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News.

I'm all for pushing back against Putin but maybe that's too much?

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-hackers-ready-hit-back-if-russia-disrupts-election-n677936

 

[Manmademan]

The prediction markets are looking at the early voting totals, which 538 reasonably excluded. I have no idea how to weight that versus polling data either but its pretty clear that Clinton is winning the ground war in Nevada and Florida.

it's not just nevada and florida. Seems to be everywhere.

That Texas article from the other day was just jaw dropping.

.. he does know what the "T" in LGBT means, and why you can't take a shit in peace in certain states because of it, right?

I mean, this is one of the weirdest examples of "Fuck you, I got mine" I've seen.

he also doesn't seem to be aware that even though marriage equality is a thing, it is still legal to discriminate on the basis of sexual orientation in most states- i.e. your boss can outright fire you for being gay with no repercussions.

https://mic.com/articles/121496/one...ill-be-fired-for-being-gay-in-2015#.OQNJhjLF4

 

[wumster3000]

She has already won Nevada meaning she has 270 without NH

How do we know this?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Do the polls stop coming in at some point? The pollsters would stop running new polls obviously but they have to take time to process them anyways. When do we expect the polls to start drying up?

Monday will be end. Some of the trackers will update one last time Tuesday morning, maybe.

 

[avaya]

I'm all for pushing back against Putin but maybe that's too much?

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-hackers-ready-hit-back-if-russia-disrupts-election-n677936

No. Fuck them.

 

[Grexeno]

How do we know this?

Early voting lead appears to be insurmountable

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Can enthusiasm really be this swingy

I know it hurts guys but we still have to call the ABC tracker trash

 

[SexyFish]

How do we know this?

Early voting seems to show Nevada as a lock.

 

[Gaylord Sweetwood]

Classy CNN. Showing Trump holding a LGBTQ flag when reporting on the state of Utah being a battleground. Definitely not trying to sway Mormons, nope not at all.

 

[Black Mamba]

Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD Oct 18
Sam Wang Retweeted Nicolas Veron
It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug.

HAHA.

Anyway, Drew Linzer and Sam Wang are on the "it's over, move on" train and have been for a while.

Poor Nate Silver. He's going to be forgotten so quick after this.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I'm all for pushing back against Putin but maybe that's too much?

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-hackers-ready-hit-back-if-russia-disrupts-election-n677936

If they're telling NBC about it, they've already done the damage, or they're announcing that we have the capacity and expect that the Russians believe that we do, and will, if they don't get their shit in order PDQ.

Ain't propaganda grand?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I know it hurts guys but we still have to call the ABC tracker trash

The whole point of a tracker is to watch for big movements. Even the ultimate trash LAT poll has had some use in this regard. They are your source of volatile leading indicators.

 

[Nafai1123]

.. he does know what the "T" in LGBT means, and why you can't take a shit in peace in certain states because of it, right?

I mean, this is one of the weirdest examples of "Fuck you, I got mine" I've seen.

Fuck you, got mine until the guy I'm voting wins.

 

[wumster3000]

Early voting lead appears to be insurmountable

Early voting seems to show Nevada as a lock.

 

[Manmademan]

HAHA.

Anyway, Drew Linzer and Sam Wang are on the "it's over, move on" train and have been for a while.

Poor Nate Silver. He's going to be forgotten so quick after this.

Chances of ESPN dropping his site like a hot rock are pretty damned high, so you may be correct.

Wherever he ends up after this, let's hope it's somewhere with a little less pressure and more humility.

 

[ezrarh]

HAHA.

Anyway, Drew Linzer and Sam Wang are on the "it's over, move on" train and have been for a while.

Poor Nate Silver. He's going to be forgotten so quick after this.

He should be. And I wish more pundits would be ostracized or outcast or whatever word you want to use after the elections. Somehow people who are consistently wrong still get to stay on tv.