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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
HTupolev said:
Seems legit.

sepLxbG.png
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make one showing HRC over 300
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Manmademan said:
Any scenario where Trump wins is bordering on "impossible" territory right now.

He needs to flip PA, FL, or NV...and all of these are out of reach right now using a number of metrics.
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Replace "or" with "and."
 
D

Diablos

Member
Cat said:
Her name is Fang, and she was my favorite character in the game and is one of my favorite FF characters period.
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Ah yes that's it. I remember Vanille so well because her English VA was sooooooooooooo bad

Y2Kev said:
Manmademan, you say FL is not even close and yet Steve Schale says it is. He's an expert. WHY ARE YOU SO CONFIDENT I JUST CANT KNOW
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I am wondering the same thing. Although if the trend of nearly 1/3 GOPers breaking for Hillary + higher Hispanic turnout by deafult holds I guess I can see why he is so confident
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
I've got the tenative OK from wifey for Election Watching menu:

Lentil Tacos with homemade guac and spinach salad for her

Two homemade pizzas; Artichoke, black olive, spinach, and cheve

Two bottles of Pinot Grigio

12-pack of New Belgium; mixed variety

Coconut Tequila Margaritas

Gin & Tonics

Champagne for celebration around 11pm

We got this!
 
I

Iolo

Member
Y2Kev said:
FOUR MORE SLEEPS until we KNOW THE NEXT PRESIDENT

What am I going to do with my time

I check this thread basically every ten seconds

And now that I discovered McDonald, Schale, and Godcohn on Twitter I check TWITTER every ten seconds and I HATE twitter

I wake up now at 2AM in a cold sweat and check my work emails and then twitter and then this thread

I'm going to get back like 18 hours a day of my life
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I'm replaying A Link to the Past, it takes my mind off the election for an hour at a time until I get the compulsion to check the Internet again
 
S

Syncytia

Member
Don't know if this is new or not...

Illegal immigrant first time arrested: 1 year in jail
second time: 5 years
thirds time: 10 years

And they won't come back. Even though they will be here? In jail....unless he wants to send them to Super Trump Guantanamo Luxury Bay
 
K

KMS

Member
When Trump lost Iowa and said "What the hell's a ground game?" Republicans should have taken the hint and ran far away from him. Hillary has taken what Obama built and created a master piece of political history.
 
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Carpe Carnim

Member
Voysa Reezun said:
Why would you fuck up a delicious margarita with coconut-flavored tequila? Come on, dude!

Not even fresh lime juice and a good triple sec will save that drink. That's Adam-tier, man, come on.

(The rest of the menu looks delicious!)
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I used to agree, but she brought some 1800 coconut tequila home one time and it worked perfectly with limeaid concentrate. It's not canon, but for making large batches of Margaritas without spending $70 just for that one cocktail, it's a good choice.

I will accept all public floggings that may come from it, tho
 
M

Manmademan

Member
superdeluxe said:
Not just polls right? I remember benchmark pol uses demos that still shows Nevada/FL etc trending clintons way
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correct. I'm of the position that polls don't matter right now.

Polling is a lot more art than science, and much of that art is guessing "who is likely to show up on election day" then weighting your responses around those guesses. Many of the shit tier pollsters that lean R make some extremely questionable assumptions about minority turnout, and I've commented on that within the past few hours.

We have Early Vote numbers coming in, and just about all of them are saying that the assumptions about who was going to show up to polls and in what numbers aren't correct. Early voting numbers are completely obliterating 2012 participation levels, and not one single pollster saw that coming. none. Democrats are actually OUTVOTING republicans in Texas right now.

Think about this.

Have pollsters or aggregators actually corrected for this? Absolutely not. 538 was explicit about this in their chat today that they ignore early vote tallies in their model, and pollsters do too. So why are we still looking at polls which assume turnout numbers we know aren't accurate?

We can look at the states doing EV right now in significant numbers (no, PA and VA don't count- they're absentee but not EV) that haven't changed since 2012, and make some pretty accurate observations about where the race is.

Y2Kev name dropped Steve Schale- I actually like the guy. he's one of the reasons I'm so confident Florida is out of play- looking at EV data, not polls. here's a few observations:

The electorate continues to get more diverse. The electorate is now under 68.6% white (67 In 2012), with Black and Hispanic voters continuing to grow in share of the electorate.
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From the votes we have coming in, we can see Florida's electorate is getting MORE diverse vs. 2012...not less. But we know this from immigration data. So Trump would need to carry a greater percentage of the white vote vs. mitt romney to carry Florida in 2016, because white voters are a smaller portion of the population. But let's continue.

First, through Wednesday, 170,000 more Hispanics had voted early (or VBM) in 2016 than voted early or by VBM in the entire 2012 cycle. And keep in mind, because Hispanic is a self-identifying marker, studies have found that the real Hispanic vote is larger than the registration. So while Hispanics might make up 14.2% of the voters who have voted so far, in reality, the number is larger.

And it isn’t just that Hispanics are voting, it is the types of Hispanics who are voting. Here is one way to look at it: Right now, statewide, 16% of early voters are either first time Florida voters, or haven’t voted in any of the last three elections. Across party lines, 24% of all the Hispanic votes today come from these first-time voters. Among Hispanic Republicans, it is 14%, among Democrats, it goes up to 26%, and among Hispanic NPAs, a whopping 32% have no previous or recent voting history.

When you expand it out to voters who voted in one of the last three, which is what I define as “low propensity,” it goes up to 53% of Hispanic Democrats and 60% of Hispanic NPAs. That, my friends, is the definition of a surge.

Right now, Democrats hold a 117K vote advantage among all low propensity voters, in large part due to this Hispanic surge. 32% of Democratic voters so far are low propensity voters, compared to 26% of the GOP voters. But among NPA, the number rises to 48%. That’s right, 48% of NPAs who have voted so far are low propensity – and 25% of those are Hispanic.
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The hispanic vote has surged substantially. through wednesday it was up 170K over 2012, and it's higher now. (someone posted today's figure somewhere, I can't be bothered to get it).

But the real story here is where they are. Many of the first time hispanic voters are those PR immigrants i like to go on about, though of course you have natural first time voters just aging into the system. Among hispanic republicans, 14% are first time voters, among democrats it's 26%, and among NPA it's 32%.

What this says is that the majority of those recent immigrants are registered democratic or NPA, and we know from polling they're all fairly hostile to the republican party by fairly lopsided 75-15 margins.

The NPA vote is also coming in MORE diverse than the state as a whole:

One last thing on these NPA voters, right now, the overall electorate is 68.6% white, but among NPAs, that number drops to 65%. In other words, NPA voters are more diverse than the electorate as a whole. That almost certainly bodes well for Clinton.

Why do I mention all this? Well, it is because so much attention is paid to the top line EV numbers: R versus D. But the more I think about it, the more I think the fact D’s have trailed later into EV than normal, the more I wonder it has more to do structurally with HRC’s coalition than it does any partisan advantage. As I told a reporter, I think the R vs D number now is more of an optics problem than an electoral one.
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NPA is more diverse than the overall electorate, meaning it's going to be trending more democratic than the state vote overall, statistically.

also, from today:

Q5eEPGv.png


Yeesh. both of those are TERRIBLE numbers for Trump. an electorate that is getting rapidly more diverse AND is female heavy overall is a disaster for him.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
I haven't heard anything about Iowa lately; how has early voting been going?

I wrote off Iowa a long time ago, but I do remember seeing early voting had been good for dems?
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Not very good. Dems were behind but catching up, but in the last few days have leveled off. I think Iowa is lost.
 
B

Blader

Member
Diablos said:
These are just the PPP polls though. I wonder how many more we'll get before Tuesday?

I appreciate what you're saying but I don't think anyone two weeks ago thought that the race would be this close, do you? How can we say for sure Comey had no effect for example? What else could it be? GOPers coming home? They were not going to vote for Trump when the Access Hollywood tape dropped. Now all of the sudden they're coming home. Something had to boost their morale. It's not Trump's way with words...
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As we get closer and closer to the election, Republicans who were cool on Trump take stock of the fact that he's still their nominee and this is still a binary choice in a presidential election. They spend a couple weeks patting themselves on the back about not falling in line with such a flagrantly bigoted, abusive person running for president, but when push comes to shove and it's time to vote, many of them will still pull the lever for their R.

Jason Chaffetz's last three weeks kind of encapsulate this whole mentality. Got nothing to do with Comey or whomever. It's just realizing, the election is next week and I guess we'll vote for Trump after all.
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
Manmademan said:
*snipped
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Illuminating.

One thing I can't reconcile tho, why is the electorate 68.6% white this time around vs. 67% in 2012, even tho all of these numbers suggest higher minority voter turnout? Is that an early voting only metric and the 67% in 2012 figure applies to the entire electorate in 2012? Which implies that early voting skew more white?
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Illuminating.

One thing I can't reconcile tho, why is the electorate 68.6% white this time around vs. 67% in 2012, even tho all of these numbers suggest higher minority voter turnout? Is that an early voting only metric and the 67% in 2012 figure applies to the entire electorate in 2012? Which implies that early voting skew more white?
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67% in 2012 was the total.

68% is "so far" right now, and is trending down. getting below 67% by the time all votes are counted is pretty much a certainty- note that yesterday's voting (the article was written prior to that) had those showing up to the polls only 60% white.

edit: and yeah, there was another post- possibly by schale though I couldn't find it- that pointed out that the white republican EV was primarily people who had voted in 2012, just earlier. They had shifted their voting earlier than usual but weren't turning out any new voters, so the proportion of the white vote isn't expected to grow.

Democrats and NPA however have a LOT of first time and highly irregular voters showing up in the EV, with the typical voters who show up on election day still outstanding. the electorate is going to be a lot more diverse and a lot more democratic in 2016.
 
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Atomic Playboy

Member
+2 for Hillary in Oregon. Dropped off my wife's and my ballots tonight. Plus 2 to Ron Wyden and Earl Blumenauer as well; I really like Oregon's representation in the national legislature right now. None of those races is competitive, mind you, but it's a civic duty.
 
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Aaron Strife

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I desperately want to see Trump's math exam scores.

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/794647353005395968
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I guess I just can't comprehend Trump's logic (what else is new?). I think he has a perfection complex combined with a superiority complex. He believes everyone needs to be perfect 100% of the time while also believing he himself is perfect 100% of the time.

One person alone isn't going to have all the answers and information at their disposal. That's why presidents have advisors, experts who draft policy, generals in the military etc.

All it boils down to is Trump wants to prove that he's the best. And it's a gross misunderstanding of even basic humanity.
 
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Syncytia

Member
Wow. CNN panel is saying that Michelle's "We go high" line is BS because Hillary and the campaign are able to easily bait Trump so actually the Clinton campaign is playing dirty hahaha. What a joke.
 
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