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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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B

brianmcdoogle

Member
CwdFW56WEAA5FlF.jpg

I just can't see a pattern in states that have limited voting access this election. *shrug*
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
RastaMentality said:
Obama to michigan!
Click to expand...

1) There probably is a tighter race in Michigan than in 12.
2) She's never been behind in a public poll there.
3) There is no robust early voting in Michigan, making it more imperative that even if it's not as close Wisconsin, Ohio, or Florida, that surrogates and the candidate go there because they really only have one shot to get it right (Election Day)
 
L

LostMyNarbles

Member
Presidential Race seems like a lock at this point, but none of this will matter if the Democrats do not take the Senate. We will just get 4 years of nothing getting done due to an obstructionist House/Senate.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Any update from that case Dems filed about "Poll Monitoring"?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
LostMyNarbles said:
Presidential Race seems like a lock at this point, but none of this will matter if the Democrats do not take the Senate. We will just get 4 years of nothing getting done due to an obstructionist House/Senate.
Click to expand...

We'll probably win the Senate just because there are so many options and it's so tight, it's likely one of the 4th seats we need will tip our way.

And yes, I think CCM will win.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
whyamihere said:
Again:

The Democratic vote share in NC is lower because Dixiecrats have died/switched their registration for Trump, but the % of Democrats this year who vote for the Democrat > 08 + 12

The Republican EV share is up, but most of this is from regular voters who voted for Romney in 12. Some of these will be votes for Hillary since Trump is getting a uniquely lower number of Republicans due his continued weakness with college educated white women.

The NPA vote share is way up, and this is from people who are disproportionately non-white and younger who have been targeted by the HRC campaign.

Scene.
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again, good info. I went looking for this as well. Dixiecrats kind of screw things in NC- Democrats outnumber republicans by about 700K votes- but republicans usually win presidential elections there because of all of the old dixiecrats that are registered D but vote solid R.

the reason HRC is expected to win is because of NPA:

One of the biggest question marks about early voting in North Carolina comes down to those individuals who are not affiliated with any party. In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters currently make up 25 percent of early participants this year. This is an increase in turnout of nearly 40 percent since 2012, although this largely because the number of unaffiliated voters has risen 20 percent since four years ago.
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http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north...ack-white-republican-democratic-up-down-2012/

You can blame this one on millenials being less thrilled to identify with a political party than GenX and Boomers. 1 in 4 early voters is NPA- and as you say, they trend younger and more diverse. Clinton is turning them out.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Suikoguy said:
Any update from that case Dems filed about "Poll Monitoring"?
Click to expand...

They got a restraining order in OH against Trump and Roger Stone's people, but not OH GOP.

In PA they blocked 'out of county' poll watchers, so only in county.

NJ GOP is still under injunction from poll watching schemes
 
M

M-PG71C

Member
I made my final donation to Clinton tonight. My vote is cast, my money spent. It is time.May God bear witness to us all.

And for some of you, yes, the flying spaghetti monster may eat from this fine table as well lol
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
whyamihere said:
Again:

The Democratic vote share in NC is lower because Dixiecrats have died/switched their registration for Trump, but the % of Democrats this year who vote for the Democrat > 08 + 12

The Republican EV share is up, but most of this is from regular voters who voted for Romney in 12. Some of these will be votes for Hillary since Trump is getting a uniquely lower number of Republicans due his continued weakness with college educated white women.

The NPA vote share is way up, and this is from people who are disproportionately non-white and younger who have been targeted by the HRC campaign.

Scene.
Click to expand...


Oh right.

Thanks <3.

Gets hard to keep track of what is what sometimes
 
K

kirblar

Member
Fragamemnon said:
For what it is worth if Hillary takes AZ and crushes FL with a 65/66% non-white total (entirely possible on the back of a Latino suerge), I'm not sure Republicans can afford to sleep on immigration reform.

It'll break their party apart but they have to try to fix their problem before it hardens and locks them out the white house forever. Just assume that you can buy off the Freedom morons later with something else.
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This is exactly what happened in CA. GOP went full racist. They lost the Hispanic vote and became a permanent minority party.
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
ampere said:
If turnout is really good I think we can do it

But idk
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most likely no. You need NPA voters to swing in Hillary's favor bigly and without an obvious demo that's ready to "turn", there's just not enough Dem votes to get Hillary that last 40,000 votes needed to win the state.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
whyamihere said:
You know, it's pretty shocking how many pundits don't get which states don't have robust early voting.
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I mean, of the things they don't know, that's pretty low on the list!

Also, this is the first time I can say I am shocked that Hillary's campaign didn't have this concert thing better sorted out. The stream loses sound every 20 seconds, sometimes it comes back....they're using a Fox 5 stream out of Atlanta to cover it. Complete miss for them on this.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Iolo said:
I'm replaying A Link to the Past, it takes my mind off the election for an hour at a time until I get the compulsion to check the Internet again
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I went and played dark souls 2. i got so fucking frustrated in harvest valley that I shut it off and am back here.
 
Mizzou Gaming

Mizzou Gaming

Member
Knocked on some doors in Mid-Missouri today for my local Democratic HQ. Hillary unfortunately cannot win here so we pushed Jason Kander in the Senate race and Chris Koster in the Gov's race. Volunteering like this really helped my anxiety levels.

These redneck, white trash Trumpsters here in mid-MO have been so brainwashed by Trump's "drain the swamp" anthem, they are helping Jason Kander bigly. We talked to approximately 125 people today and the question that was repeated the most was "who is the incumbent?".

#DrainTheSwamp!
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Mizzou Gaming said:
These Redneck, white trash Trumpsters here in mid-MO have been so brainwashed by Trump's "drain the swamp" theme, they are helping Jason Kander bigly. We talked to approximately 125 people today and the question that was repeated the most was "who is the incumbent?".

#DrainTheSwamp!
Click to expand...

oh that's just hilarious
 
T

TI82

Banned
Mizzou Gaming said:
Knocked on some doors today for my local Democratic HQ. Hillary, unfortunately, cannot win here so we pushed Jason Kander in the Senate race and Chris Koster in the Gov't race.
Volunteering like this really helped my anxiety levels.

These Redneck, white trash Trumpsters here in mid-MO have been so brainwashed by Trump's "drain the swamp" theme, they are helping Jason Kander bigly. We talked to approximately 125 people today and the question that was repeated the most was "who is the incumbent?".

#DrainTheSwamp!
Click to expand...

Amazing ROFL
 
M

metalslimer

Member
adam387 said:
I mean, of the things they don't know, that's pretty low on the list!

Also, this is the first time I can say I am shocked that Hillary's campaign didn't have this concert thing better sorted out. The stream loses sound every 20 seconds, sometimes it comes back....they're using a Fox 5 stream out of Atlanta to cover it. Complete miss for them on this.
Click to expand...

Yeah wtf is this. Did I already miss Bey?
 
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