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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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A

ampere

Member
Manmademan said:
also, from today:

Q5eEPGv.png


Yeesh. both of those are TERRIBLE numbers for Trump. an electorate that is getting rapidly more diverse AND is female heavy overall is a disaster for him.
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women doin work
 
S

shiba5

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
I've got the tenative OK from wifey for Election Watching menu:

Lentil Tacos with homemade guac and spinach salad for her

Two homemade pizzas; Artichoke, black olive, spinach, and cheve

Two bottles of Pinot Grigio

12-pack of New Belgium; mixed variety

Coconut Tequila Margaritas

Gin & Tonics

Champagne for celebration around 11pm

We got this!
Click to expand...

I think I'm just going with a cocktail of OxyContin and muscle relaxers.
I finally found the silver lining to having chronic nerve damage.
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
Manmademan said:
67% in 2012 was the total.

68% is "so far" right now, and is trending down. getting below 67% by the time all votes are counted is pretty much a certainty- note that yesterday's voting had those showing up to the polls only 60% white.
Click to expand...

Gotcha. Would be interesting to see what the EV breakdown was in 2012 up through the Thursday before election day. That would help us get a better sense of the demographic mix we'll see on Tuesday.

But solid numbers all around given that Mittens won the white vote by historic margins and still lost.
 
T

Trace

Banned
Syncytia said:
Wow. CNN panel is saying that Michelle's "We go high" line is BS because Hillary and the campaign are able to easily bait Trump so actually the Clinton campaign is playing dirty hahaha. What a joke.
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The media in the USA is so fucked up right now that they attempt to "even out the sides" when the Trump campaign is full of so many lunatics they should have been laughed off the air by now.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Illuminating.

One thing I can't reconcile tho, why is the electorate 68.6% white this time around vs. 67% in 2012, even tho all of these numbers suggest higher minority voter turnout? Is that an early voting only metric and the 67% in 2012 figure applies to the entire electorate in 2012? Which implies that early voting skew more white?
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Schale, earlier today, was seeing a drop of between .5-.7% each day in the total White share of the electorate. Since we have two more days of EV we can fully expect it to be between 67.5-67% by the end of EV. So we can expect 2012 type numbers, BUT a huge surge in NPA, which as was stated by Manmademan, is largely younger and Latinx.

Edit: Beaten by the Man, Manmademan
 
F

Fox318

Member
Man I really want to watch election coverage on Tuesday all night but I have a submission grappling event in 2 weeks and I can't miss any time :(
 
M

Maengun1

Member
Man, this Philly transit strike and Washington elector douche thing have me MAD. Not panicky necessarily, just angry. Why do dems always have to make shit so hard for themselves?? I'm sure President Trump would be a lot better for that union, really worth the risk. And good call on apparently not being able to find 12 liberals in Washington state who didn't protest walk out of the DNC ...gah I'm fuming.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Manmademan said:
67% in 2012 was the total.

68% is "so far" right now, and is trending down. getting below 67% by the time all votes are counted is pretty much a certainty- note that yesterday's voting (the article was written prior to that) had those showing up to the polls only 60% white.

edit: and yeah, there was another post- possibly by schale though I couldn't find it- that pointed out that the white republican EV was primarily people who had voted in 2012, just earlier. They had shifted their voting earlier than usual but weren't turning out any new voters, so the proportion of the white vote isn't expected to grow.

Democrats and NPA however have a LOT of first time and highly irregular voters showing up in the EV, with the typical voters who show up on election day still outstanding. the electorate is going to be a lot more diverse and a lot more democratic in 2016.
Click to expand...

Getting to 65 or 66% would be pretty devastating for Republicans.

Democrats continue to nap their low-propensity voters in NC as well.

Waiting on Ralston for Clark updates.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I'm sad that Hillary wont be able to pass Immigration reform in the next four years and inevitably disappointing latinos once again. They are breaking all sorts of turnout records. It is just wrong. After 4 years we have to take them for the same ride once again.

What spirit dinner does Hillary needs to cook in order to pass the rubio-backed gang of 8 bill that's stuck in the house? What chicanery and politricks? Is there anything we can hope for?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Tell us how that Economic Anxiety feels, IWMTB.
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My GRE score was good enough to probably get into Michigan or UCSD for an Economics Ph.D. so I'm actually feeling very economically not-anxious right now so heroin is a bit of an odd choice I admit.

I'm sad that Hillary wont be able to pass Immigration reform in the next four years and inevitably disappointing latinos once again. They are breaking all sorts of turnout records. It is just wrong. After 4 years we have to take them for the same ride once again.

What spirit dinner does Hillary needs to cook in order to pass the rubio-backed gang of 8 bill that's stuck in the house? What chicanery and politricks? Is there anything we can hope for?
Click to expand...

1. GOP fails to elect a Speaker of the House.
2. Dems agree to vote for a Republican for Speaker as long as he puts amnesty up for a vote.
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
Saw a headline from Newsweek where they say Putin wins either way. Says even if Clinton wins, she will be so bogged down with trying to repair the country/emails etc that she won't have political clout to stop him in Ukraine etc
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Gotcha. Would be interesting to see what the EV breakdown was in 2012 up through the Thursday before election day. That would help us get a better sense of the demographic mix we'll see on Tuesday.
Click to expand...

it would, but don't forget we have an extra day in 2016 vs. 2012. Sunday was added back to the schedule after being removed in 2012.

why was it removed in 2012? because black voters tend to organize GOTV efforts around church activities. They were so effective at it in 2008 that republicans decided to get rid of it. It was restored for 2016 after a backlash.

But solid numbers all around given that Mittens won the white vote by historic margins and still lost.
Click to expand...

yup. and every number we have shows trump having less of the republican coalition behind him than Romney did. Educated white voters and women are very reluctant to turn out for him. Given that he needs his share of the white vote to go UP and not down, this is a bad thing.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
For what it is worth if Hillary takes AZ and crushes FL with a 65/66% non-white total (entirely possible on the back of a Latino suerge), I'm not sure Republicans can afford to sleep on immigration reform.

It'll break their party apart but they have to try to fix their problem before it hardens and locks them out the white house forever. Just assume that you can buy off the Freedom morons later with something else.

RustyNails said:
Manmademan, AC360 showed democrats at EV disadvantage in NC compared to 2012. How true is this?
Click to expand...

Democrats will be above 2012 levels today. It took right up until the end of the early vote period to make up for the NC GOP early voting changes targeted at our cities.

Republicans are up, but this is in part to the contested primaries this year. Lots of old Democrats that hadn't voted democratic in ages finally got to have a voice in a close primary between Trump and the Cruz missile. They had to swap parties to participate.

NC comes down to how unaffilated voters play out. Both sides have very different takes-the GOP believes that it'll be like 2012 in terms of outcome, Democrats believe that it'll be more diverse, urban, and younger . I think we have the right of it based on early voting returns but it's debatable.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
superdeluxe said:
Saw a headline from Newsweek where they say Putin wins either way. Says even if Clinton wins, she will be so bogged down with trying to repair the country/emails etc that she won't have political clout to stop him in Ukraine etc
Click to expand...

I think that's a simplification. If Putin gets antsy, and Clinton is feeling bogged down at home, leading a NATO pushback, with harsher economic sanctions against an emboldened Russia is a no-brainer.

He's gonna have his hands full with Syria and a faltering economy while oil prices stay low. Adding a full-blown guerilla campaign in Eastern Ukraine with tacit NATO support ain't a good use of his resources.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
RustyNails said:
Manmademan, AC360 showed democrats at EV disadvantage in NC compared to 2012. How true is this?
Click to expand...

As of now, it's about 10% lower, but will probably be around -8-9% by the time we hit Election Day. AA will be 21-22% of the NC electorate, which is exactly right given their registration (AA outperformed registration in 08 and 12 in NC) and is what HRC needs for a win.

Almost all polls are modeling a 21-22% AA electorate. So is HRC's camp.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Fragamemnon said:
For what it is worth if Hillary takes AZ and crushes FL with a 65/66% non-white total (entirely possible on the back of a Latino suerge), I'm not sure Republicans can afford to sleep on immigration reform.

It'll break their party apart but they have to try to fix their problem before it hardens and locks them out the white house forever. Just assume that you can buy off the Freedom morons later with something else.
Click to expand...

Taking AZ, another walk in NV, keeping TX within 5, and a 65% white share electorate in FL is gonna scare enough marginal district GOPers to force the immigration issue.

I agree completely with the rest of your assessment. They won't have a choice, no matter how much the Freedumb Caucus mewls
 
M

Manmademan

Member
RustyNails said:
Manmademan, AC360 showed democrats at EV disadvantage in NC compared to 2012. How true is this?
Click to expand...

dunno. haven't been looking at it. I do have a day job, people

edit: seriously though, i know NC's voter suppression nonsense has screwed all kinds of things. It hasn't been at the top of my list to keep an eye on though- florida is a lot more critical I think.

whyamihere said:
As of now, it's about 10% lower, but will probably be around -8-9% by the time we hit Election Day. AA will be 21-22% of the NC electorate, which is exactly right given their registration (AA outperformed registration in 08 and 12 in NC) and is what HRC needs for a win.

Almost all polls are modeling a 21-22% AA electorate. So is HRC's camp.
Click to expand...

thanks, great info!
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
whyamihere said:
As of now, it's about 10% lower, but will probably be around -8-9% by the time we hit Election Day. AA will be 21-22% of the NC electorate, which is exactly right given their registration (AA outperformed registration in 08 and 12 in NC) and is what HRC needs for a win.

Almost all polls are modeling a 21-22% AA electorate. So is HRC's camp.
Click to expand...


But Romney won NC in 2012. Is GOP EV down as well?
 
N

Nafai1123

Banned
At this point I'm confident in a Clinton win but I'm worried about the senate and I'm pissed at this FBI bullshit because it's tightened the downballot race. Fucking disgraceful.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
excelsiorlef said:
But Romney won NC in 2012. Is GOP EV down as well?
Click to expand...

Again:

The Democratic vote share in NC is lower because Dixiecrats have died/switched their registration for Trump, but the % of Democrats this year who vote for the Democrat > 08 + 12

The Republican EV share is up, but most of this is from regular voters who voted for Romney in 12. Some of these will be votes for Hillary since Trump is getting a uniquely lower number of Republicans due his continued weakness with college educated white women.

The NPA vote share is way up, and this is from people who are disproportionately non-white and younger who have been targeted by the HRC campaign.

Scene.
 
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