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[Armaros]

This is a silly thing to do three days before a GE, but keep in mind that RPOF and RNC have always had a crew running Trump's GOTV operation here. Obviously, they're not built to handle the job all by themselves, but they're competent from what I hear, and they've been on the ground since at least September.

It won't save him, but from what i've heard it was meant to provide a buffer for the down-ballot and provide coat-tails for Trump as a spill-over effect.

Right, but he hasn't been giving the state party money for the entire month of October. They're doing it with funds from the RNC and Trump's been giving them shit too. The party is doing a lot of the heavy lifting, but they're, from what we can tell, just turning out their regular voters. Pretty much each R in the state is depending on the state party. It's an interesting (read: stupid) strategy.

The key point of the long term ground campaigns is to get massive voter lists and to narrow it down to focus the votes that need the most push to get to the polls. (generally non standard but GOP leaning voters)

If the crews arrive in the states at the last min with barely an operation already there, the ground work wont have been done and they will just be grabbing voters that most likely voter R anyway.

 

[Ac30]

Also John McCain..

I can't believe I once thought he wasn't a shitheel. How times have changed.

 

[wutwutwut]

Is the theory here now that the polls are just plain wrong and that it's a blowout for Hillary? Don't get your hopes up people she's going to win but too much of this country is racist to the core.

 

[TheFatOne]

If you want to watch hilarious bed wetting watch one of the latest TYT videos with the title the swing states that will decide the election. Spoiler alert cenk thinks NH is one of the five key states lol

 

[BanGy.nz]

22 minutes ago Ken Bone answered a question on his reddit AMA. I just needed to share that with everyone.

 

[User 463088]

@timjhogan
Democrats just broke a record in Clark County!

26,597 -- Dems
15,434 -- Republicans
15,143 -- NP

Dems win by 11,163 #earlyvote

 

[EmCeeGramr]

what if Election Day comes and uh oh all of the Democrats voted early and now the silent majority of True Once and Future Great America awakens to cast all of the remaining ballots


Didn't think about THAT, did ya

 

[johnsmith]

One last chance to get that bj

 

[HK-47]

what if Election Day comes and uh oh all of the Democrats voted early and now the silent majority of True Once and Future Great America awakens to cast all of the remaining ballots


Didn't think about THAT, did ya

Actually I did think about that. What now?

 

[TheFatOne]

Is the theory here now that the polls are just plain wrong and that it's a blowout for Hillary? Don't get your hopes up people she's going to win but too much of this country is racist to the core.

The going theory is that most polls in Florida and Nevada may be wrong due to several factors which we have some early evidence of. One unprecedented Hispanic/Latino turnout. We are seeing big numbers in FL and NV. We are also seeing a lot of low propensity voters. Models won't catch them and there are a lot of them in FL coming out to vote early. We also know that most of these pollster's dont have the money to also poll in Spanish. Latino voters are notoriously hard to poll. The theory is being driven by what we are seeing in the early vote. I'm sure other gaffers will chime in on the other things I've missed. The evidence so far looks like NV and FL are going to be locks for Clinton due to the early vote.

Edit: It's going to be a blow out. The evidence so far points in that direction.

 

[Mario]

Is the theory here now that the polls are just plain wrong and that it's a blowout for Hillary? Don't get your hopes up people she's going to win but too much of this country is racist to the core.

Well, when you take into account Hillary is already leading in most polls by slid margins, given Obama over performed on polling twice, polling typically finds it hard to quantify the Hispanic vote which this election is strongly against Trump, early voting is generally showing growth in Democrat voters, and Clinton's ground game is vastly superior to Trump, there is reason to believe Hillary will overperform and the possibility of a blowout is there.

There are perhaps more unknowns in this election than almost any other in modern history, but when it comes to the known unknowns those all play to Hillary's favour.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Mark Hamill really saves Arkham Knight, it's probably one of my favorite performances in a game in many years. The UI is amazing and the game tries a fuckton of different stuff, but then there's just lots of mediocre Batmobile stuff.

Anyway, not sure if it's good that a Batman game has mostly gotten me excited for Episode 8, but I guess that's how it goes sometimes?

Can't tell if miss post or election oppo

 

[sazzy]

Isn't it pretty much guaranteed that Donald isn't winning NC?

 

[thepotatoman]

I still can't believe that Trump might do better than Romney among white people, none the less minorities. It's not like every single last white republican is completely engrossed in the right wing news network bubble.

Are there no military minded white republicans worried about giving trump the nuclear launch codes? Are there no rich republicans worried about what Trump will do to the economy? Are there no white women republicans bothered by his offensively sexist actions?

Maybe, but it's blowing my mind thinking how Trump can do as well or better with white people overall than Romney, unless I'm underestimating just how many uneducated white men there are that didn't vote romney but will vote trump.

 

[Xamtheking]

Can't tell if miss post or election oppo

It was induced by large amounts of Hopium

 

[Kangi]

@timjhogan
Democrats just broke a record in Clark County!

26,597 -- Dems
15,434 -- Republicans
15,143 -- NP

Dems win by 11,163 #earlyvote

@RalstonReports
1m
Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

So I'm doing some electoral map bets (single pool, closest map wins) with some people on the campaign I've been working with, should I do blue AZ? Right now I have this

I'm flip flopping constantly on IA and I'm not sure how to feel about AZ with Latino turnout. I was going to do GA as red but then I saw some really close polls and I wasn't sure. Utah is grey for McMuffin unless something changes between now and Monday.

 

[GhaleonEB]

So I'm doing some electoral map bets (single pool, closest map wins) with some people on the campaign I've been working with, should I do blue AZ? Right now I have this

I'm flip flopping constantly on IA and I'm not sure how to feel about AZ with Latino turnout. I was going to do GA as red but then I saw some really close polls and I wasn't sure. Utah is grey for McMuffin unless something changes between now and Monday.

No to both AZ and, sadly, IA.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I already told you all what the final result will be

Obama 2012 + NE-2, NC, AZ

Just believe

 

[A Link to the Past]

I already told you all what the final result will be

Obama 2012 + NE-2, NC, AZ

Just believe

I just wish we could add Georgia and Alaska on top of that

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I already told you all what the final result will be

Obama 2012 + NE-2, NC, AZ

Just believe

I'm content to believe in blue TX and AK until there is money on the line.

 

[Muzy72]

I already told you all what the final result will be

Obama 2012 + NE-2, NC, AZ

Just believe

I can't believe all of you refuse to believe in TX

 

[MetalGearZed]

posting this for when im a prophet on tuesday

this is really just my dream map. just GA and OH. yum yum

 

[aspiegamer]

I can't believe all of you refuse to believe in TX

If nothing else, appreciate the luxury of being able to think so casually about Texas as even a thing that exists. Democrats are so comfortable that a 5th-tier competitive state will probably be within 5 points. Blue wall > backup wall (NV, NC) > tossups (IA, OH) > expansion states (AZ, GA) > lolstates (AK, TX)

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The mood swings in this thread are really insane. How many more up and down swings do we have left?

 

[phisheep]

Edit: It's going to be a blow out. The evidence so far points in that direction.

Yep.

Polling is at about what, +6? Add on 2% ground game for +8. Plus undersampling of minorities +2 for +10. Plus shy Clinton voters in R areas (there's weak evidence for this, but it is still evidence) +5 for +15, and shy not-trump voters ditto +3 (evidence Utah where Trump dropped 10 points as McMullin came in, adjusted to not overlap with shy-Hillary and to not double-count abstentions) for +18.

Not all of this will translate into downballot, but I reckon we're looking at a +18-ish blowout in the Presidential and a +12-ish downticket.

(But don't whatever you do look up my posting history for what I said about Brexit, which I got horribly wrong!)

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Yep.

Polling is at about what, +6? Add on 2% ground game for +8. Plus undersampling of minorities +2 for +10. Plus shy Clinton voters in R areas (there's weak evidence for this, but it is still evidence) +5 for +15, and shy not-trump voters ditto +3 (evidence Utah where Trump dropped 10 points as McMullin came in, adjusted to not overlap with shy-Hillary and to not double-count abstentions) for +18.

Not all of this will translate into downballot, but I reckon we're looking at a +20-ish blowout in the Presidential and a +12-ish downticket.

(But don't whatever you do look up my posting history for what I said about Brexit, which I got horribly wrong!)

The polling is not +6 right now. It's 2-4 at best.

 

[phisheep]

The polling is not +6 right now. It's 2-4 at best.

So, +15 and +9 then? Still feels pretty big to me.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yep.

Polling is at about what, +6? Add on 2% ground game for +8. Plus undersampling of minorities +2 for +10. Plus shy Clinton voters in R areas (there's weak evidence for this, but it is still evidence) +5 for +15, and shy not-trump voters ditto +3 (evidence Utah where Trump dropped 10 points as McMullin came in, adjusted to not overlap with shy-Hillary and to not double-count abstentions) for +18.

Not all of this will translate into downballot, but I reckon we're looking at a +18-ish blowout in the Presidential and a +12-ish downticket.

(But don't whatever you do look up my posting history for what I said about Brexit, which I got horribly wrong!)

I like you

 

[Finalizer]

od'd on hopium edition

Spoiler

believe

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

od'd on hopium edition

Spoiler

believe

12 hours from now some poll will come out and you'll be anxiously hoping for any 270 map.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

12 hours from now some poll will come out and you'll be anxiously hoping for any 270 map.

Projecting.

 

[wutwutwut]

Yep.

Polling is at about what, +6? Add on 2% ground game for +8. Plus undersampling of minorities +2 for +10. Plus shy Clinton voters in R areas (there's weak evidence for this, but it is still evidence) +5 for +15, and shy not-trump voters ditto +3 (evidence Utah where Trump dropped 10 points as McMullin came in, adjusted to not overlap with shy-Hillary and to not double-count abstentions) for +18.

Not all of this will translate into downballot, but I reckon we're looking at a +18-ish blowout in the Presidential and a +12-ish downticket.

(But don't whatever you do look up my posting history for what I said about Brexit, which I got horribly wrong!)

I'd love for this to happen but it's really not

I'd settle for +4 tbh.

 

[Spiritreaver]

This morning I was all super positive and confident and people tried to shut me down. I've never been off the TX train either. LET'S GO.

 

[Nafai1123]

November 5, 2016 Ames, Iowa Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders
November 5, 2016 Colorado Springs, Colorado Get Out the Vote Senator Bernie Sanders

Have Bern will travel. Hope he can at least score a dank j while he's there.

 

[wutwutwut]

The 1900 person line is amazing, but surely that sort of thing will take her from +3 to +5, right?

 

[thepotatoman]

I'll still just be happy with 270 electoral votes and 50 senate seats. Everything above that is gravy.

 

[Finalizer]

12 hours from now some poll will come out and you'll be anxiously hoping for any 270 map.

my sheets have been perfectly dry tyvm

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'll still just be happy with 270 electoral votes and 50 senate seats. Everything above that is gravy.

I want 51

I don't trust Virginia not to screw up after they almost elected that dingus Gillespie in 2014

 

[Fenderputty]

The mood swings in this thread are really insane. How many more up and down swings do we have left?

Reading through this thread today have I felt the ups and downs of a 72 hour coke binge in Vegas .

I have been confident this whole election but manmademan + EV stats got me on another level

 

[eBay Huckster]

12 hours from now some poll will come out and you'll be anxiously hoping for any 270 map.

12 hours from now I'll be exactly as calm about this race as I have been for literally the entire past year.

 

[A Link to the Past]

posting this for when im a prophet on tuesday

this is really just my dream map. just GA and OH. yum yum

What a weirdo map

od'd on hopium edition

Spoiler

believe

I think if Clinton wins Texas, Missouri, Indiana, Utah, and South Carolina could go to Clinton too

Also you forgot Nebraska's 2nd

 

[ErasureAcer]

I'll still just be happy with 270 electoral votes and 50 senate seats. Everything above that is gravy.

They need more than 50 seats. 2018 will be rough with ND, IN and MT all up(Though Tester has already been reelected once before the other two have not). So of the 8 potential pickups (Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, Indiana, Florida) and 1 hold(Nevada) they would be best to lose only 1 seat of those 9. Dems really need as many seats as they can get. 50 really wouldn't be a success. 53 or above would be good to cover for potential losses in 2018. All the Supreme Court vacancies aren't going to be up in the next 2 years.

 

[mo60]

The polling is not +6 right now. It's 2-4 at best.

It's more like +5 then to 2-4.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Just saw the Clark Numbers

Holy shit

72k edge in registration + likely winning NPAs.

Awesome.

Still a tossup in 538 though.

 

[Paches]

Just saw the Clark Numbers

Holy shit

72k edge in registration + likely winning NPAs.

Awesome.

Still a tossup in 538 though.

CNN standing by Trump +7 in Nevada!

 

[mo60]

Just saw the Clark Numbers

Holy shit

72k edge in registration + likely winning NPAs.

Awesome.

Still a tossup in 538 though.

I wonder if 538 will stop labelling the state as a tossup soon.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Watching CinemaSins' video on The Purge: Election Night.

My favorite scene was when the supermarket worker tells the Senator the key to winning the election is Florida.

1) The electoral college still exists and the swing states are still more or less the same

2) DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

[Twilight Princess]

I have to admit, looking at 538 is making me nervous af, even though I know his model is flawed.
Fucking shit guys, don't elect trump.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

It's more like +5 then to 2-4.

How many national polls have come out this week with a +5 margin? You're just making stuff up.