A Link to the Past
Banned
I wish
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
- Start date
- Status
I wish
Finale Fireworker
Member
That's one of our secret states.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Well Hispanic vote in Florida is like at 130% of 2012 EV already.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Depends what you want it to be efficient at. For campaigning? Nope. For maximising the amount of campaign money that goes into Trump's own coffers? Damned efficient. Costs a lot to keep a plane flying, especially a Trump one.
I'm sticking with my earlier Florida calc. She is going to win the state by 300k+ votes.
This is precisely where I am.
On the Senate:
Hold: Nevada
Flip: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Wisconsin, North Carolina
Unsure, but I'll guess GOP: Missouri, Indiana, Florida
And on that last category, I am truly unsure. It ties-in to my "where is the ceiling?" question. At the same time, I am not hopeless on these races.
For Florida, for instance, we don't know the loyalties of these new low-propensity voters that the Clinton campaign is obviously successful in turning out. We know how reliable voters act, but the electoral habits of these new voters aren't as researched/measured. If they're straight-ticket Dem voters and the Senate race is a matter of a few points, I'd love to see Murphy shock us all.
For Indiana and Missouri, I want to know how motivated Dem turnout will be. I also want to know if the polls showing Bayh going down were taken during a time period where response rates were dampened by the Weiner laptop news (even though I think Bayh is goin' down).
We're getting the Senate back. But I still greedily hold-onto slim hope for a surprise or two in our favor on Tuesday night.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Finale Fireworker
Member
I'll be so upset if Jason Kander doesn't win Missouri.
This is exactly my prediction
This is where I'm expecting things to land. Not optimistic about Iowa (my home state, dammit) or Ohio. Otherwise, yeah.
http://pollyvote.com/en/
sazzy
Member
i like this a lot.
That's odd. He would stiff them anyway. I thought he would try to squeeze out some free laborWhy pay people for months when you can pay them for 3 days and still perform the same!
Finale Fireworker
Member
I just want you guys to know that I voted for this guy:
https://twitter.com/jiveassbaloney/status/794505627150249984
https://twitter.com/jiveassbaloney/status/794505627150249984
sazzy
Member
will PoliGAF be bedwetting in this thread or the OT election thread on Tuesday?
edit-
NYTimes teasing oppo drop?
Jonathan Martin of NYTimes wrote this stuff above, which I've quoted.
He just retweeted this tweet:
edit
unfortunately, I have a bad feeling it might be an fbi oppo drop; CNN played a clip of donald saying, from yesterday, "amazing news about the emails coming".
cartoon_soldier
Member
Jonathan Martin of NYTimes wrote this stuff above, which I've quoted.
He just retweeted this tweet:
edit
unfortunately, I have a bad feeling it might be an fbi oppo drop; CNN played a clip of donald saying, from yesterday, "amazing news about the emails coming".
Friday before election is gone.
Yea, I hope this isn't anything related to FBI/emails. Shit's got me worried again after the EV hopium.
nature boy
Member
Is this going to be the story on Tuesday, how Trump completely underperformed?
I erase my 538 bookmark. Sam wang and the upshot for aggregates. RCP just for individual poll results
cartoon_soldier
Member
You guys, you have to follow Harry Enten from 538 on twitter though
Jonathan Martin of NYTimes wrote this stuff above, which I've quoted.
He just retweeted this tweet:
edit
unfortunately, I have a bad feeling it might be an fbi oppo drop; CNN played a clip of donald saying, from yesterday, "amazing news about the emails coming".
If it helps you feel better at all, Patrick Ruffini is a #NeverTrumper and that tweet from Adrian Gray came after going through a rundown of Bush internal polling in past elections. Also going through his feed he doesn't seem to be a fan of Trump at all either. As for what Trump was saying, he's pretty much a broken record when it comes to emails and was more than likely referring to the Fox news "indictment" story which was debunked later in the day yesterday.
lyrick
Member
Even with a private jet he's wasting a ton of time on travel to places that don't make sense.
It's a weird situation right now as we can look at dem turnout and diversity of the early vote and make educated guesses at the resilt, but Nate Silver is still hamstrung by bad polling and his ideology.
Several analysts have pointed out that it's clear from early voting that pollsters have not been weighting the Hispanic population correctly in their polling. Case in point, Nate Silver had Nevada as red the other day while we are looking at record early vote numbers in dem countys and by a very diverse NPA.
This would be a great positive ad to close with on TV, as opposed to the dark and depressing stuff both campaigns have been running with for the most part (aside from some of the shorter trump TV spots, which are positive).
cartoon_soldier
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
More importantly it has the "I approve this message" part. Only needed for TV ads.
that's what they say about Hitler. And by they I mean 4chan.
Fake Edit: Hitlary didn't do anything wrong.
Fake Edit 2: a weird trump supporter gave my son 20$ "for his college fund" at dinner last night. He would not take no for an answer. Also pretty sure he was a white nationalist.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Nate will blame poor Hispanic polling won't he on Wednesday?
A Serious Man
Member
sazzy
Member
If there is an oppo drop, my guess is:
the video made by ISIS feat. Donald Trump for recruiting people.
People have talked about that video, but no one has found it.
If anyone has it, it would be the government/intel people.
Guessing, again, based on Jonathan's write-up specifically mentioning the OBL video in 2004.
the video made by ISIS feat. Donald Trump for recruiting people.
People have talked about that video, but no one has found it.
If anyone has it, it would be the government/intel people.
Guessing, again, based on Jonathan's write-up specifically mentioning the OBL video in 2004.
Already Torn
Banned
KP is Hill'S secret weapon for sure. What if she released a secret single tomorrow called Oppo Drop?
Damn, that got me smiling.
You can learn so much about what's effective in terms of on-screen captions, music and editing by watching the Clinton campaign ads. All the feels. Really hoping it hits TV.
Yeah, I'm really rooting for him to win.
metalslimer
Member
I love that ad. I hope it's her closer. Bomb the NFL games with it.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Which is fine, because it's almost certainly going to be what causes a huge discrepancy in polling and results, if that does happen
I think no matter the results, everyone's going to write articles on why the polls "got it wrong"
cartoon_soldier
Member
Bigger problem 538 is they are not weeding out bad pollsters.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Definitely. You know it's a problem when Enten admits it on Twitter.
sazzy
Member
Manmademan
Member
this is huge
well, we've known this for some time.
http://www.politico.com/states/flor...ers-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717
polling latinos is expensive, and difficult. among those that have done it properly (in english and spanish, and heavy on cellphones) support for Trump is below the 20% range.
There is absolutely no way he gets anywhere near Romney's 27% final result. These voters are all extremely motivated to show up this year, and it's not to vote for "president Trump."
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked