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[DontBeThatGuy]

Watching CinemaSins' video on The Purge: Election Night.

My favorite scene was when the supermarket worker tells the Senator the key to winning the election is Florida.

1) The electoral college still exists and the swing states are still more or less the same

2) DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

lol, yeah, dude was acting like he broke the code.

 

[GhaleonEB]

This is where I'm expecting things to land. Not optimistic about Iowa (my home state, dammit) or Ohio. Otherwise, yeah.

How many national polls have come out this week with a +5 margin? You're just making stuff up.

http://pollyvote.com/en/

 

[Trouble]

This is where I'm expecting things to land. Not optimistic about Iowa (my home state, dammit) or Ohio. Otherwise, yeah.

My map is exactly the same, except I think OH is ultimately going to go blue. I also stand by my prediction that the race will be called well before OH in any case.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I'm just saying you take all the polls released this week and tell me how that averages out to 5 points. The aggregate on upshot and 538 is about 3 points right now.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Gun to head: Republicans win OH/IA/AZ presidential (324-214 Clinton), IN/MO Senate, Democrats win NH/NC Senate (51-49 D)

But my heart is hoping for a sweep of everything I'm calling a Tossup

 

[Breads]

An R the Donald thread posits that there is evidence that Sanders was a DNC plant and that the primary was faked to create a sense of voter urgency.

The top reply, with 900 points, is as follows.

HILLARY HAD TO CHEAT TO STEAL THE NOMINEE AWAY FROM HER OWN PLANTS

The bleeting of mindless sheep, people.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Nearly 30K early votes in Mecklenburg County (Charlotte, NC) today. Mecklenburg has now surpassed 2012's final tally with 1 day remaining (early vote ends tomorrow, no Sunday vote because NCGOP hates black people) and is 16% ahead day for day.

Day	2012	Rsum	2016	Rsum	Pct of 2012
1	15127	15127	13459	13459	89.0%
2	13961	29088	13043	26502	91.1%
3	11310	40398	9584	36086	89.3%
4	5468	45866	5573	41659	90.8%
5	14625	60491	12748	54407	89.9%
6	15314	75805	12698	67105	88.5%
7	15351	91156	11932	79037	86.7%
8	15130	106286	21815	100852	94.9%
9	15319	121605	21485	122337	100.6%
10	13260	134865	15467	137804	102.2%
11	6866	141731	8964	146768	103.6%
12	16979	158710	20379	167147	105.3%
13	16297	175007	21502	188649	107.8%
14	16398	191405	23422	212071	110.8%
15	18204	209609	25048	237119	113.1%
16	20594	230203	29843	266962	116.0%
17	20800	251003

Yes, Charlotte!

Obama's GOTV operation in Charlotte was amazing in 2008. My doors were knocked at 6pm, someone was going through ready to ferry anyone who hadn't voted to go vote.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

IBD tracker update, still flat as can be at a 44-44 tie.

 

[sazzy]

r/donald is really pissed it seems...

i wonder why

 

[mo60]

An R the Donald thread posits that there is evidence that Sanders was a DNC plant and that the primary was faked to create a sense of voter urgency.

The top reply, with 900 points, is as follows.



The bleeting of mindless sheep, people.

Are they just creating random conspiracy theories now?

 

[Breads]

Are they just creating random conspiracy theories now?

Yep. Quote mining the fuck out of disparate out of context emails and vomiting out a thread to 4000 up votes.

That's his base. People who are more interested in how they want to feel than they are things that actually matter ( I will never forget how they cheered at the prospect of the death of the EPA and department of education).

Which is fair. A significant portion of the country operates this way.

But it isn't going to win them the white house.

 

[TheFatOne]

So, +15 and +9 then? Still feels pretty big to me.

I'm expecting an 8 point win but yea it's big especially given how polarized the U.S. is now.

 

[ErasureAcer]

My predictions:

President: Alaska, Arizona and GA go blue in Presidential as do all the other "toss-ups" except maybe Iowa. McMuffin wins Utah. Hillary second. Trump third. Add MO to the list if Kander wins the Senate seat. Trump doesn't break 50 million votes.

Senate: Dems +5 for sure(WI, IL, NC, PA, NH, Nevada hold) I wouldn't be surprised if McCain and/or Rubio lose. MO I think is more likely than IN in the Senate.

House: Dems +20-25 seat gain. I'm predicting +2 in MN. Paulsen(MN-3) narrowly falls and Craig is a lock over Lewis in the open seat(MN-2). Nolan(MN-8) wins by a larger margin than 2014.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Because the Washington state democratic party is a piece of shit an Elector from WA will NOT vote for Hillary.

This means she needs at least 271 EV.

 

[Aaron Strife]

My predictions:

President: Alaska, Arizona and GA go blue in Presidential as do all the other "toss-ups" except maybe Iowa. McMuffin wins Utah. Hillary second. Trump third. Add MO to the list if Kander wins the Senate seat.

Senate: Dems +5 for sure(WI, IL, NC, PA, NH, Nevada hold) I wouldn't be surprised if McCain and/or Rubio lose. MO I think is more likely than IN in the Senate.

House: Dems +20-25 seat gain. I'm predicting +2 in MN. Paulsen(MN-3) narrowly falls and Craig is a lock over Lewis in the open seat(MN-2). Nolan(MN-8) wins by a larger margin than 2014.

I would love if we swung 6 in the Senate from the states you mentioned and Missouri. If Bayh isn't the 51st vote I won't care much if he loses.

I think Kander deserves to win above any other Senate candidate this year because he's run such a good campaign and he's just about the only challenger who can articulate why he deserves election other than "The incumbent/Obama/Hillary/Trump sucks." He'd be a genuinely positive force in the Senate besides just rubber stamping Clinton appointees and a great potential presidential/vice presidential candidate down the line.

Sadly I think he loses by a point. I hope I'm wrong! Otherwise, if McCaskill steps down in 2018 he needs to run.

Because the Washington state democratic party is a piece of shit an Elector from WA will NOT vote for Hillary.

This means she needs at least 271 EV.

I really can't imagine it coming down to this. Clinton's "blue firewall" map gives her 272 votes. Swap New Hampshire for Nevada and you get 274. The Washington elector is a jackass but I don't think it would swing anything.

 

[Stasis]

Are they just creating random conspiracy theories now?

Seems like it's always been. Ever since I started reading that out of curiosity. Just a meeting place of the paranoid and absurd. Given a voice.

 

[Pixieking]

Because the Washington state democratic party is a piece of shit an Elector from WA will NOT vote for Hillary.

This means she needs at least 271 EV.

Source? I'm assuming this is Bernie related, but I'm curious now.

Edit: Nevermind, found something. Posting link for other people.

Rouge Electoral College Voter Announces Campaign to Be Most Hated Person in America

Robert Satiacum, a Democratic elector in Washington state, announced on Friday that he will not vote for Hillary Clinton when the Electoral College affirms the election results on December 19, even though she is expected to win the state’s 12 electoral votes.

What a dick.

 

[sazzy]

A few years ago, Alex Jones was on what appears to be one of the BBC's local news channels.

This 5 minute clip of that interview is absolutely amazing. Must watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch9gQ9JOe3Y

spoiler: It ends with Jones shouting and the interviewer ending the exchange early

 

[titiklabingapat]

The only bad thing resulting from all this early vote record breaking reports is that Republicans will likely restrict early voting in 2020 if Democrats win or or come close to winning in many states, especially Texas and Florida. Just look what happened to NC.

 

[Magni]

Because the Washington state democratic party is a piece of shit an Elector from WA will NOT vote for Hillary.

This means she needs at least 271 EV.

I tweeted at him, maybe? Not sure if it's the same guy. Fuck faithless electors (fuck the EC, really).

 

[Aaron Strife]

The only bad thing resulting from all this early vote record breaking reports is that Republicans will likely restrict early voting in 2020 if Democrats win or or come close to winning in many states, especially Texas and Florida. Just look what happened to NC.

Hopefully we'll have a liberal Supreme Court then to stop this.

 

[sazzy]

The only bad thing resulting from all this early vote record breaking reports is that Republicans will likely restrict early voting in 2020 if Democrats win or or come close to winning in many states, especially Texas and Florida. Just look what happened to NC.

Population trends favoring Democrats are going to be even more pronounced in 4 years. They'll have to gut early voting harder than they have this year for it to be effective.

Its an endless spiral downwards for the GOP, unless the party changes.

 

[sazzy]

 

[titiklabingapat]

Population trends favoring Democrats are going to be even more pronounced in 4 years. They'll have to gut early voting harder than they have this year for it to be effective.

Its an endless spiral downwards for the GOP, unless the party changes.

Two things I commend Republicans are their propensity to be truly True Believers™ and unabashed brazenness so I still expect them to try.

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1308247

Almost there, gang.

 

[sazzy]

The topline pair of graphs, they're in bad taste right? Coloring bar graphs by people's skin color? First time I've seen it happen.

 

[BanGy.nz]

Because the Washington state democratic party is a piece of shit an Elector from WA will NOT vote for Hillary.

This means she needs at least 271 EV.

They'll just remove him after she wins. Relax.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Ryan isn't doing "Trump Campaign" events is he?
Eww they added scumbag Giuliani.

 

[sazzy]

Ryan isn't doing "Trump Campaign" events is he?

I think he calls them "My Party's Nominee's Campaign" event.

edit-

*puke*

 

[harriet the spy]

Damn you guys are optimistic. I mean way more optimistic than anything I read when I step out of my Neogaf Distortion Bubble (and I don't mean just 538). God I hope nate is wrong.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Also, Trump's schedule for today seems really stupid even setting aside the early voting firewalls for a moment. Just the logistics of visiting Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina and Florida in a day seem ridiculously inefficient.

 

[Tommy DJ]

Just about everyone is forecasting a Clinton win. We currently have:
- NYT at 85%
- HuffPost at 98%
- PredictWise at 86%
- PEC at >99%
- DailyKos at 91%

Only Nate Bronze has low odds and even then its still above 60%.

I'd like to think that these are beyond solid odds. They also don't take into consideration that early voting figures from Nevada and Florida are making Trump look dead in the water before the 8th. There's no bubble here. If Trump wins, we have to completely re-evaluate everything.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Damn you guys are optimistic. I mean way more optimistic than anything I read when I step out of my Neogaf Distortion Bubble (and I don't mean just 538). God I hope nate is wrong.

Early vote in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida is ridiculously encouraging.

 

[sazzy]

will PoliGAF be bedwetting in this thread or the OT election thread on Tuesday?

edit-

NYTimes teasing oppo drop?

 

[jiggle]

will PoliGAF be bedwetting in this thread or the OT election thread on Tuesday?

edit-

NYTimes teasing oppo drop?

 

[AniHawk]

Just about everyone is forecasting a Clinton win. We currently have:
- NYT at 85%
- HuffPost at 98%
- PredictWise at 86%
- PEC at >99%
- DailyKos at 91%

Only Nate Bronze has low odds and even then its still above 60%.

I'd like to think that these are beyond solid odds. They also don't take into consideration that early voting figures from Nevada and Florida are making Trump look dead in the water before the 8th. There's no bubble here. If Trump wins, we have to completely re-evaluate everything.

why nate bronze and not nate participant award

 

[Diablos]

Early vote in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida is ridiculously encouraging.

BELIEVE

will PoliGAF be bedwetting in this thread or the OT election thread on Tuesday?

I'm so anxious to vote. I wish the PA GOP wasn't a cesspool and actually passed shit and we had early voting. I want to vote so bad. Haven't been so anxious to vote in my life.

Also if something still happens I guess you can blame me but there was no more FBI Oppo yesterday for voters to digest over the weekend, which is good. Chances of there being more have dropped significantly I would think. Of course nothing came out about Trump either which kinda sucks.

Fuuuuuck we can't let orange turd win

 

[faisal233]

will PoliGAF be bedwetting in this thread or the OT election thread on Tuesday?

edit-

NYTimes teasing oppo drop?

 

[Diablos]

Christie's issues aren't gonna hurt Trump

It would have to be something yuuuuuge. And the clock is ticking

 

[jiggle]

Christie's issues aren't gonna hurt Trump

It would have to be something yuuuuuge. And the clock is ticking

You can't get bigger than Christie really

 

[A Serious Man]

God I wish Trump's campaign hadn't talked him out of picking Christie as VP.

 

[Boke1879]

God I wish Trump's campaign hadn't talked him out of picking Christie as VP.

Best decision his campaign made, but no one gives a shit about mike Pence.

 

[fantomena]

George R.R. Martin (author of A Song of Ice and Fire): http://grrm.livejournal.com/504703.html

In my lifetime, there has never been a presidential candidate more unfit to lead this nation.

You don't need to like Hillary. You don't need to listen to what Hillary says about Trump, or what I say about Trump. You just need to listen to Trump. If you can do that, and still consider voting for him... well...

 

[cartoon_soldier]

will PoliGAF be bedwetting in this thread or the OT election thread on Tuesday?

edit-

NYTimes teasing oppo drop?

Hopefully not against Clinton

 

[cartoon_soldier]

They'll just remove him after she wins. Relax.

I don't think they can

 

[Breads]

George R.R. Martin (author of A Song of Ice and Fire): http://grrm.livejournal.com/504703.html

You don't need to like Hillary. You don't need to listen to what Hillary says about Trump, or what I say about Trump. You just need to listen to Trump. If you can do that, and still consider voting for him... well...

He's not wrong.

Trump, on the other hand, has said the vilest things any presidential candidate has said since George Wallace, and he's rising in the polls.

Also... not wrong.

I wonder how the GOP will recover from this!

 

[Aaron Strife]

He's not wrong.



Also... not wrong.

I wonder how the GOP will recover from this!

Eh he's kind of wrong on the second point. The man is not teflon, he regularly polls low 40s/high 30s and everyone outside of his dumbass base hates him. The ones who are pushing up his numbers are the ones holding their nose.

But hey, whatever deters complacency.

 

[sazzy]

 

[A Link to the Past]

He's not wrong.



Also... not wrong.

I wonder how the GOP will recover from this!

My mom and I were talking about it in the car, and we came to an agreement that yeah, Trump is the worst significant candidate since Wallace, and the people voting for him are the worst since Wallace's voters.

 

[sprsk]

I was just watching a show on Japanese tv where they were breaking down the American presidential election system, and they listed Tennessee as a swing state, because it was blue in 1992.