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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Zackat said:
Oh it's definitely true. It's incredible how different north Florida is from south florida. Like 2 different places.

Driving back to Gainesville on the turnpike I knew I was almost back when I saw the "WE BARE ALL" signs for the strip club/wing joint truck stop.
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I used to guage my trip time back home by the frequency of vasectomy, abortion, and 'Stop Obama; We The People 2012' signs.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Fox318 said:
rXYw2HJ.jpg
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I don't get it. Is Steve Irwin crying because he dropped a torch? Needs more written explanations on the picture.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Manmademan said:
I am a public servant.

I'll objectify all I want.

That being said, someone I used to date is on my facebook right now, posting about going to a Trump rally. she's been SUPER republican lately and has had a habit of posting diet racist republican memes about michelle obama.

I'm so conflicted. was I banging a racist?
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You broke her, dude.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Looking more and more like 538 will be losing a lot of credibility moving forward.

Way to go NV! Is Florida following suit? Because that basically calls it now.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
oh god the cafe risque billboards. you guys are taking me back in time.

also nate is going to claim systemic polling error due to hispanic non-response to write off how badly he's off in FL/NV/AZ (and in turn how badly his model ended up). He won't learn the real lesson, which is that his model is easily manipulated by garbage polls released at the same time.
 
N

newshinycd

Member
studyguy said:
The fact that Anthony Weiner lives is just proof Clinton doesn't murder her political liabilities anyway. Just disappear Weiner.
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Pfft. No, you obviously don't understand how witchcraft works. It isn't Hillary's place to kill Weiner since he was married into the same cult that Huma and Hillary belong to. Huma has to perform the spell and it can only be after Hillary wins the election. You see, Huma has to keep up her ongoing vote rigging spell. If she stops to perform another spell, Hillary will lose.
 
1

120v

Member
wait... so we're doubting the 538 model? (which is what i came in here to talk about, it's been scaring the shit out of me)

every election its been spot on. except for FL last election, i think? but its always been more or less infallible
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Grief.exe said:
No, and polling has clearly under weighted Hispanic populations in the electorate. Nate just continues on, oblivious to reality.
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To be fair, this isn't just a 538 issue, I don't know of anyone who accurately polls Hispanic populations. Of course, the GOP knew this in 2012 but decided to pretend that it wasn't going to be an issue this time around.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
120v said:
wait... so we're doubting the 538 model? (which is what i came in here to talk about, it's been scaring the shit out of me)

every election its been spot on. except for FL last election, i think? but its always been more or less infallible
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It's different this cycle. The plethora of bad polls and lack of quality polling is throwing it significantly out of whack.
 
M

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Manmademan said:
no, it doesn't.
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Polling has become incredibly tricky lately, and the rise of early voting makes what would normally be very accurate 14-7 days out polls nearly useless in a lot of states. This along with no Spanish options and relying on landlines.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Fragamemnon said:
oh god the cafe risque billboards. you guys are taking me back in time.

also nate is going to claim systemic polling error due to hispanic non-response to write off how badly he's off in FL/NV/AZ (and in turn how badly his model ended up). He won't learn the real lesson, which is that his model is easily manipulated by garbage polls released at the same time.
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Yep. this is it right here.

republicans have long owned their own television and radio outlets to spew propaganda and construct their own reality to motivate their base and drive fundraising. Adelson just did the same thing with that newspaper out in Nevada to push republican favorable headlines. Note that it was pretty much the only major newspaper nationwide to publish a Trump endorsement- even when papers that backed the GOP candidate for a 100 years straight said "fuck no."

Why it's not assumed they are obviously doing the same thing with polls is beyond me.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
So, Trump today said he's going to Minnesota before the election.

k.

Also, and the fact that I have to slightly defend Nate's model here causes me physical pain....his model is showing the polls that exist. The fact that this election is (probably) hard to poll isn't really his fault. The fact that the polls we have are shit isn't his fault, although his total lack of qualify control IS his fault. Now, I think the way he correlates TRENDZ between states is problematic, and that is one of the reasons why NC and FL are red at the moment. I don't think is model is great, but it is doing what it's supposed to do.

But, he's still a terrible pundit and a general asshole on Twitter.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Nevada numbers should make us pray Sandoval can't make it through a GOP primary in 2020 lol

Or maybe we should pray he does, takes the presidency but isn't terrible and then Democrats make a bunch of midterm gains in 2022.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Silver's already said that NV is leaning Dem due to early voting - key is that all the models are waiting on polls that do an early voting screen (which should be coming this weekend / Monday) and tabulate that into the poll itself.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794651308850638848

Also, regarding hispanic voting and trying to poll it

https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/794724115366215680

Clinton leads among national Hispanic voters in last week: +21, +48, +29, +38, +16, +27, +30, +55, +12, +38, +24, +38, +60, +39
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Gonna say pollsters can't figure out how to get the Hispanic vote in polls correctly yet. :p
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Maxim726X said:
Looking more and more like 538 will be losing a lot of credibility moving forward.

Way to go NV! Is Florida following suit? Because that basically calls it now.
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It's pretty safe to call Florida at this point as well, not as convincingly as Nevada but it's looking good.

The Democrat/Republican split is relatively even, with a slight Dem lead I believe, but the NPA vote is massive and also skewing diverse with massive Hispanic turnout.

Fragamemnon said:
also nate is going to claim systemic polling error due to hispanic non-response to write off how badly he's off in FL/NV/AZ (and in turn how badly his model ended up). He won't learn the real lesson, which is that his model is easily manipulated by garbage polls released at the same time.
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I agree.

Hopefully he does learn from this, but I get the impression that he is flailing in the dark. Many other analysts were able to predict this and consistently say that the Hispanic increase and decrease in African American votes were consistent with their models.

Meanwhile, Silver is riding the sin wave of daily tracker polls.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Nothing would be sweeter than seeing Trump lose AND watching Silver get embarrassed for being a know-nothing clown. But Trump can still win, that much is true today.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
adam387 said:
So, Trump today said he's going to Minnesota before the election.

k.

Also, and the fact that I have to slightly defend Nate's model here causes me physical pain....his model is showing the polls that exist.
Click to expand...

So do PEC, The Upshot, Etc. none of them are as far out of the realm of reality as 538.

The fact that this election is (probably) hard to poll isn't really his fault.
Click to expand...

Well...his job isn't to poll. His job is to look at the polls that exist, weight them appropriately, and analyze the data.

The fact that the polls we have are shit isn't his fault, although his total lack of qualify control IS his fault.
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Exactly.

Let's look at this here:

ZdVb0WZ.png


I think steve missed bloomberg, which isn't a GOP pollster, but the analysis still stands.
The vast majority of legitimate polls have clinton leading in one way or another- but the aggregate is thrown off by Polls put out by GOP consulting firms with Trump +4...all hitting around the same time.

If Nate's model is easily manipulated enough to be swung by this kind of shit where everyone else is weighting them appropriately (i.e. extremely low, if at all) then that's on him.

Now, I think the way he correlates TRENDZ between states is problematic, and that is one of the reasons why NC and FL are red at the moment. I don't think is model is great, but it is doing what it's supposed to do.

But, he's still a terrible pundit and a general asshole on Twitter.
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also true.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Also, opposing a pathway to citizenship should scare the crap out of the GOP.
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They will though. Because white men.

And I would hope a generation of young Hispanics will reward the party of H Clinton for giving them, their parents or grandparents a path. And punish the GOP for blocking it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I'm sorry

This is shade, but Nina Turner knows nothing about the early voting in OH! Literally, I could go up there and put a better argument than she is right now.
 
S

shiba5

Member
“What a group of losers we have” — Trump on the military and civilian commanders who have handled the Mosul campaign.

Amazing.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Grief.exe said:
It's pretty safe to call Florida at this point as well, not as convincingly as Nevada but it's looking good.

The Democrat/Republican split is relatively even, with a slight Dem lead I believe, but the NPA vote is massive and also skewing diverse with massive Hispanic turnout.
.
Click to expand...

I do think Clinton will win FL but its much closer than Nevada. Right now she's even to slightly ahead of where Obama was in 2012 but he won NV by 6.5 and FL only by 1. There are just way more places for Trump to get voters from in Florida so the result is less certain.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
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