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[Y2Kev]

Never forget, they had Clinton +29 in the IA primary

But that was because of Bernie nonresponse leading to systemic polling error

 

[thcsquad]

What are the body blows to keep that fuck face out of your guy's White House, where it's actually possible for Hillary to emerge victorious? A Trump win is unlikely already but you don't stop a job until you finish it.

Florida is the big one, and I imagine Nevada can do some damage (but that'll be a little later into the night). Pennsylvania another big one?

Hoping for the best, America.

OH is the body blow. Though with FL and PA it might already be clinched at that point.

 

[newshinycd]

Peter AlexanderVerified account
‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Michigan is Trump campaign's latest priority for surpassing 270 electoral votes, per aide. Trump wins WH with FL NC IA OH GA & MI.

LOL. Ain't happenin'. Trump isn't getting FL, NC, MI, or OH. Maybe IA.

I like how they have to list Georgia as a must win for Trump.

 

[Kangi]

Poor wording - I mean state wins that step on the throat i.e. a Florida win would wrap this shit up definitively on election night.

Pennsylvania shuts down most of his avenues.

North Carolina shuts down the rest.

Florida is an instant KO.

 

[Bowdz]

Poor wording - I mean state wins that step on the throat i.e. a Florida win would wrap this shit up definitively on election night.

Florida is the big one. All of Trump's realistic paths depend on a Florida win. If he loses Florida he could sweep the rest and upset in Pennsylvania and even Wisconsin or Michigan and still lose.

 

[ampere]

Is it wrong to be wary of Clinton's supreme court picks? Unless the Democrats manage to get a majority, she'll probably nominate some more milquetoast moderates like Merrick Garland. Judges that are more staunchly left-wing would probably be passed over.

After her experience with insurgent candidates this time around, I'm skeptical she'll push for campaign finance reform to heavily.

She literally cannot get a justice on the court if we don't have 50

I wouldn't be worried about her picking someone bad

 

[nature boy]

I thought it was Minnesota.

Did they cancel MI for MN or just add a trip? Either way it's a pipe dream

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I thought it was Minnesota.

That was this morning's master plan. I expect that by tonight they'll back to PA and then maybe Oregon tomorrow to change things up. Close with a late surge in VA, naturally.

 

[Retro]

Trump and Pence to Minnesota? This is what a desperate campaign looks like

I've discovered their secret strategy; visit states they can't win, point to the maps that show all the huge rural swaths of the country in red, declare fraud.

"Have you seen the map of Minnesota, folks? All red. Little bits of blue. The cold parts nobody likes, who lives there? The other ones are dumps. The rest is a sea of red, beautiful really. Terrific. And we were just there this Saturday, yuge crowds. How'd we lose that one? It's all rigged, folks!"

 

[gaugebozo]

My mom and I managed to make calls for about two and a half hours. I even talked slash bribed the fiance to make calls for about 30 minutes. Youngest kiddo got in on it too, since old women love talking to kids.

Just had two high school kids canvass my street for Hillary. We got them lunch for their hard work. Plus, fiance and I are renting a car Monday to drive some people to the polls. Might keep the kiddos home so they can help my mom phone bank, especially if she decides to go down to the Dem office.

I'm working on a management problem and am just curious: how do they split up numbers for you to call? You don't want to have lots of people calling the same person, and you want other people to call for someone who gets sick or something. How do you do that?

 

[Manmademan]

Robby Mook: "NEW Coalition","We are up in FL by 170k", Latino vote increased 130%, AA turnout up 22%

Mook also isn't counting NPA votes here, but we know those voters are leaning dem this year, potentially heavily. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Clinton was up 250k.

 

[gutter_trash]

If Florida and Pennsylvania are called it's over. Heck, if Florida is called it's over for him

This is the only possible map I can think of that gives Trump a win without Florida, and there are a lot of very, very long shots here

his road is tough as heck, basically needs to win all Romney states, win all Battlegrounds, and flip TWO Blue states

 

[Iolo]

Mook also isn't counting NPA votes here, but we know those voters are leaning dem this year, potentially heavily. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Clinton was up 250k.

He's counting NPA. Dems are currently up by a fraction of that vs Reps.

Seriously are you taking notes from Dick Morris

 

[HylianTom]

I really can't wait to see how early Florida gets called on Tuesday night.

 

[DOWN]

So Hill dropped in a few of the prediction sites besides 538... How safe is she?

 

[geomon]

IOWA: Clinton 44 Trump 43 (Loras College)

With Election Day on Tuesday the final 2016 Loras College Poll of Iowa finds Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican challenger Donald Trump in a virtual tie in the Hawkeye state.

“It looks like things may come down to the wire here in Iowa,” said Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D., associate professor of politics and director of the Loras College Poll. “The presidential race is within the margin of error, and both campaigns will be pushing hard to ensure their supporters get to the polls. Iowa GOP turnout efforts for Election Day may be more important this year than ever before given the role of early voting.”

The statewide live-caller survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Nov. 1-3, and included both landline and cell phones (58-42 split).

Hillary Clinton 44 percent
Donald Trump 43 percent
Gary Johnson 3 percent
Jill Stein 3 percent
Undecided 7 percent

 

[Smiles and Cries]

this is amazing:

NYT has a 360 degree video of the media pen getting booed at donald rallies

http://www.nytimes.com/video/us/pol...media-pen-at-a-trump-rally.html?smid=tw-share

look at the journos reactions lol

this guy brings out the worst in people

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I really can't wait to see how early Florida gets called on Tuesday night.

I mean, most of the votes are early votes so it shouldn't be that long.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

I don't think the thought of Trump winning Nevada should be entertained at this point. Pretty much confirmed blue at this point.

 

[Iolo]

Now one interesting thing is that 50,000 2016 Republican early voters apparently were 2012 Democratic early voters, according to Steve Schale. So Dems are only up by 30k right now but may effectively be up by 80k before counting NPA.

 

[HylianTom]

I mean, most of the votes are early votes so it shouldn't be that long.

We'll get to experience the treat of watching networks awkwardly contorting to pretend that the race isnt over until the west coast closes.. it'll be delicious.

 

[User 463088]

I'm working on a management problem and am just curious: how do they split up numbers for you to call? You don't want to have lots of people calling the same person, and you want other people to call for someone who gets sick or something. How do you do that?

It's a website, and it just tells me who to call. We each have our own login, and then you pick the campaign you want to work on. It's super easy to do.

 

[Basileus777]

If Florida and Pennsylvania are called it's over. Heck, if Florida is called it's over for him

This is the only possible map I can think of that gives Trump a win without Florida, and there are a lot of very, very long shots here

Even this map doesn't work anymore since he can't win Nevada.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Okay, I need to rant about Joe Heck for a second.

When Joe Heck unendorsed Trump, he said he did it because of the fact that his wife had experienced domestic violence in her life and Heck couldn't abide by violence against women.

But now Joe Heck is endorsing Trump again despite his wife being a domestic abuse survivor. Like he decided that winning this election was more important than his wife's trauma and dignity.

I can't wait until this fuckface loses by 7 points.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

this guy brings out the worst in people

He's lucky nothing really bad has happened because of that shit. I'm amazed it hasn't.

 

[Cyanity]

Robby Mook: "NEW Coalition","We are up in FL by 170k", Latino vote increased 130%, AA turnout up 22%

Does anyone have a spoon? I need to freebase this hopium.

 

[Dierce]

Is there going to be another fox news national poll?

 

[UraMallas]

I think Hillary and Co. are really going to be kicking themselves for pulling out of FL senate race when they did.

 

[Half and half]

LOL. Ain't happenin'. Trump isn't getting FL, NC, MI, or OH. Maybe IA..

*exhales*

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

If Florida and Pennsylvania are called it's over. Heck, if Florida is called it's over for him

This is the only possible map I can think of that gives Trump a win without Florida, and there are a lot of very, very long shots here

Probably a more "feasible" (I stress the air quotes) nightmare map, demographically speaking:

But then of course NC seems like a stretch if it's early voting vs. day-of white wave

And there is literally, positively absolutely no Trump map with a blue PA and FL

 

[ampere]

I think Hillary and Co. are really going to be kicking themselves for pulling out of FL senate race when they did.

It's all about getting 50 and making absolutely sure you get 50, at least this cycle. Prob had analytics telling them to focus elsewhere

 

[Y2Kev]

What would happen if the Clinton campaign were frantically all over the map

Though it's a little worrisome because MI is where he needs to be

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Does anyone have a spoon? I need to freebase this hopium.

It looks like Trump is going to need to win by a significant margin on election day, and there's no realistic way that's happening.

 

[gaugebozo]

It's a website, and it just tells me who to call. We each have our own login, and then you pick the campaign you want to work on. It's super easy to do.

Thanks! I'd imagine modern campaigns have huge organizational challenges and that's a smart solution.

I was curious because I'm working for an online Calculus learning platform, and we need to enter thousands of problems into the system. That sounds like exactly what we need to have.

 

[Rockin' Ranger]

Peter AlexanderVerified account
‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Michigan is Trump campaign's latest priority for surpassing 270 electoral votes, per aide. Trump wins WH with FL NC IA OH GA & MI.

They forgot about Arizona!

 

[Loudninja]

The Trump campaigns has to be the one of the worse run campaigns.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

ahahahahhahahaaa

Lol. In the absolute best case scenario Trump squeaks by the formidable Crooked Hillary with 270ish electoral votes. 300+ is pushing it.

 

[Half and half]

The Trump campaigns has to be the one of the worse run campaigns.

I've read this a lot and have taken it to be true, but is there some field data somewhere with specifics on this.

It'd be great for my insomnia...

 

[geomon]

Nevada’s Early Vote Ends With Massive Democratic Surge

Friday marked the end of early voting in the battleground state of Nevada, and the final returns brought decidedly good news for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

Registered Democrats turned out in force in Nevada’s largest counties, providing Clinton a critical boost in a state where polling aggregates show the former secretary of state and GOP nominee Donald Trump within a few points of one another.

Over 57,000 votes were cast in populous Clark County, a single-day record that propelled Democrats to a statewide ballot edge larger than they held at the same point in 2012, when President Barack Obama won Nevada by nearly 7 points.

Turnout was strong throughout the day, and election officials pledged to keep polling places open as long as there were voters in line. At 9pm, hundreds were still waiting to vote at a Mexican supermarket in Las Vegas.

“Looks like Trump got his wall after all. A wall of beautiful voters,” wrote Yvanna Cancela of the local Culinary Union, which has played a key role in Democrats’ get-out-the-vote operations this year. That union also represents the workers who recently voted to organize Trump International hotel on the Vegas strip.

 

[Already Torn]

That was this morning's master plan. I expect that by tonight they'll back to PA and then maybe Oregon tomorrow to change things up. Close with a late surge in VA, naturally.

They must be pretty sure they'll be able to flip those states if they're giving up on Cali so easily.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

are there any early voting numbers that are favorable for trump?

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

The Trump campaigns has to be the one of the worse run campaigns.

It's barely a campaign. They have no ground game. All of the 'effort' they put into this election and they didn't bother with the most important part.

I think this is going to be a landslide.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

are there any early voting numbers that are favorable for trump?

Probably Iowa.

 

[Emarv]

These numbers make me so proud to be a Latino. I've seen a lot of tweets floating around about how the media needs to take a look at how Spanish Media covered this election vs how they did, and I think that's spot on.

Dems really need to stay viligant for this community, though. I'm less confident we'll see these numbers in 2020 for her unless they stay on their game the next 4 years.

Keep reaching out, Hillary and southern Dems. Keep fighting for us.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

are there any early voting numbers that are favorable for trump?

Dems aren't matching their early voting pace in Iowa from prior elections.

The Trump campaigns has to be the one of the worse run campaigns.

Depends on how you define their campaign.

The core staff are incompetent but their PACs (Russia, Wikileaks, Twitter bots, the FBI) are very strong.

 

[Revolver]

The Trump campaigns has to be the one of the worse run campaigns.

It's more of a concert tour than a campaign. A concert tour with some really bad opening acts.

 

[whyamihere]

Trump's last gasp at breaking through into a deep blue state is Michigan. But like. He can't. So.

 

[Loudninja]

It's barely a campaign. They have no ground game. All of the 'effort' they put into this election and they didn't bother with the most important part.

I think this is going to be a landslide.

They are new plans days before election i have no words.

The core staff are incompetent but their PACs (Russia, Wikileaks, Twitter bots, the FBI) are very strong

.
Strong but useless at this point.

 

[kadotsu]

This is the equivalent of writing your paper the night before the deadline.

 

[Plumbob]

Posted in election thread:

This is the state of the race IMO.