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[nature boy]

This is where I think the race is FWIW:

More like this

 

[Slayven]

The dude in Washington worries me. That is 12 EVs just gone

 

[Diablos]

OH will make that decision

You know what would be hilarious is if there's a surge of black voters in Cleveland that not only give OH to Hillary but elect Strickland too. Super long shot, but that would be amazing.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The dude in Washington worries me. That is 12 EVs just gone

Nah, just one.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

This is where I think the race is FWIW:

What basis is there for red Michigan lol

 

[Manmademan]

He's counting NPA. Dems are currently up by a fraction of that vs Reps.

Seriously are you taking notes from Dick Morris

I'm on the road, didn't read it closely.

 

[DrMungo]

The dude in Washington worries me. That is 12 EVs just gone

I think there are 12 selected people. At worst it's 11/12 in the bag. It's happened a few times before, when people down vote the state popular vote. They're known as "unfaithful electors"

 

[Diablos]

The dude in Washington worries me. That is 12 EVs just gone

You mean 1 EV

 

[Emarv]

Plumbob's map is how your exam looks when you just looked up the crib notes an hour before the exam. Let me just check the polling averages on RCP for a second and just make that my prediction.

Haha. Spot on.


I personally believe in Fl and NC. The real game now is Mook's operation in IA and OH. How close he can get.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The dude in Washington worries me. That is 12 EVs just gone

You're a regular in this thread for god's sake and you say this.

 

[Mighty Chin]

Romney was against an Incumbent President. Trump is against Hillary and all her Imaginary Baggage.

Not something to hang your toupee on.

 

[Y2Kev]

The dude in Washington worries me. That is 12 EVs just gone

No, it would be 1, if Clinton doesn't somehow kill him or replace him. But honestly the odds of her getting either 270 or 271 are pretty slim.

 

[NihonTiger90]

I did not make up the shortcode for this map. I swear.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/XDloL

It's appropriate, though.

323-215 win is likely and what I'm expecting: http://www.270towin.com/maps/1vLWk

 

[Loudninja]

Nation’s Still-Undecided Voters: ‘Help, We Can’t Get Our Car Seatbelts Off

WASHINGTON—Growing increasingly panicked while struggling with the safety devices, the nation’s still-undecided voters reportedly shouted for help Friday when they couldn’t get their seatbelts off. “Help me—it’s stuck,” said Westerville, OH resident Daniel Roark, who has yet to determine which presidential candidate he will be voting for after a year and a half of campaigning, primaries, conventions, attack ads, and three nationally televised debates, adding that the lap and shoulder restraint “is really, really tight” and “hurts [his] stomach.” “Ow, ow, ow

http://www.theonion.com/article/nations-still-undecided-voters-help-we-cant-get-ou-54600

 

[Y2Kev]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 12m12 minutes ago
In 2012, NV Dems +6.1 points #earlyvote vs Reps. Obama won +6.7 points. Dems +6.0 advantage now w/ ~70% total vote cast. Solid Clinton state

God bless you, Harry Reid. Giving us one last gift before riding off into the sunset.

Also can't wait for Nate to eat shit!

Crap polling into model = crap model

Sorry but polling sucks this year

 

[Fragamemnon]

This is my super scientific map. Like other posters on this page and even Nate Silver himself, I am using a high quality voter preference methodology based on randomly clicking and making stuff up.

I have come up with this high confidence output:

 

[Crocodile]

He just wants to say he wasn't as big a loser as Romney was. It's all ego and self-worth for him at this point.

Makes sense. Let's him shit on Romney for all of eternity rather than be the biggest Republican nominee loser of modern time.

If it gets the Republican to run another guy like him in 2020 then I'll take it.

Man......I dunno if the country can take another election like this one anytime soon. Shit got fucking real this cycle, People's lifespans got shortened by multiple years over the past 16 months.

Plumbob's map is how your exam looks when you just looked up the crib notes an hour before the exam. Let me just check the polling averages on RCP for a second and just make that my prediction.

ayyy lmao

 

[TheCochese]

Final prediction:

Except for splitting NE, that's my map.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

When Alaska becomes a swing state when women move there, will presidential nominees campaign there?

Asking because it's so out of the way of everything that it would be an interesting resource optimization problem.

 

[Slayven]

Nah, just one.

You mean 1 EV

Oh taht is better

You're a regular in this thread for god's sake and you say this.

I got promoted to regular, I didn't see a bump in pay. Who is in charge of HR?

No, it would be 1, if Clinton doesn't somehow kill him or replace him. But honestly the odds of her getting either 270 or 271 are pretty slim.

Is that what happened to Harambe?

 

[Box of Kittens]

I think there are 12 selected people. At worst it's 11/12 in the bag. It's happened a few times before, when people down vote the state popular vote. They're known as "unfaithful electors"

Most recently in 2004 when somebody in Minnesota voted "John Ewards" for president.

 

[Emarv]

I can't wait for the 10 "Better Way" speeches in a few months from young Republicans wanting to get their name as the next face of the GOP. I have a feeling Cotton will be the PR winner but then lose out during the primary or general.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

So petty. Hopefully McMullin pulls through in Utah.

 

[ezrarh]

Man......I dunno if the country can take another election like this one anytime soon. Shit got fucking real this cycle, People's lifespans got shortened by multiple years over the past 16 months.

Fair point. I take solace in the fact that time and demographics are on our side for now. I am worried about the polarization and information distortion but that was happening before Trump.

In order news, I learned that Amy Schumer is distantly related to Chuck Schumer. And that he's wasting money advertising on Pandora.

 

[Y2Kev]

This is my super scientific map. Like other posters on this page and even Nate Silver himself, I am using a high quality voter preference methodology based on randomly clicking and making stuff up.

I have come up with this high confidence output:

Idiot. Why is Nevada red?

Idiot.

 

[ampere]

My current expectations (didn't mess with NE's districts b/c I can't recall the situation there):

 

[Killerhertz]

Asheville puttin' in work!

It really is my favorite place in NC. Say hi to The Wedge for me!

Mmmmm biscuithead

 

[BrokenFiction]

With Trump's schedule looking like:

FL —> NC —> NV —> CO —> IA —> WI —> MI —> PA —> FL —> NC —> NH

...on no rest, the chances are 99% that he says something categorically, titanically stupid, offensive, or illegal.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

With Trump's schedule looking like:

FL —> NC —> NV —> CO —> IA —> WI —> MI —> PA —> FL —> NC —> NH

...on no rest, the chances are 99% that he says something categorically, titanically stupid, offensive, or illegal.

I mean, he called the people taking back Mosul and killing ISIS "losers" today.

Nothing will break through the horserace/emails coverage.

 

[Retro]

This is my super scientific map. Like other posters on this page and even Nate Silver himself, I am using a high quality voter preference methodology based on randomly clicking and making stuff up.

I have come up with this high confidence output:

Even randomly clicking shit, there's no reason for Maryland to be undecided.

 

[Ty4on]

Spoiler

Mostly me "adjusting" 538

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I think there are 12 selected people. At worst it's 11/12 in the bag. It's happened a few times before, when people down vote the state popular vote. They're known as "unfaithful electors"

It all makes sense now!

Faithless Elector votes Jill Stein, the EV map ends C: 269 T: 268 WiFi: 1 and its thrown to the House, where Russian mind-control rays are used to elect Dr. WiFi and herald the end of NATO and child immunization.

Russia then unleashes a weaponized form of Whooping Cough, paralyzing our nation as they roll into the Baltics.

We must go deeper...

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

My current expectations (didn't mess with NE's districts b/c I can't recall the situation there):

This seems reasonable to me.

 

[Diablos]

No, it would be 1, if Clinton doesn't somehow kill him or replace him. But honestly the odds of her getting either 270 or 271 are pretty slim.

Agreed. Plus if she gets down that low a faithless elector should be the least of her worries unless that's exactly where she would land.

I will say that it's stupid how the EC works. They should not be entitled to ignore the will of the people of their state. The laws should be changed nationwide so that if an elector refuses to vote for the winner of the state, then they are replaced with someone who will. AND get fined.

 

[tmarg]

With Trump's schedule looking like:

FL —> NC —> NV —> CO —> IA —> WI —> MI —> PA —> FL —> NC —> NH

...on no rest, the chances are 99% that he says something categorically, titanically stupid, offensive, or illegal.

There's also a 0% chance anyone who isn't already voting for Hillary will care.

 

[thcsquad]

Mine:

I know AK is a long shot, but i'll seize on the few bad polls he's had and the fact that the writing will be on the wall while they're still voting.

Margins, for the hell of it:

AZ: Hills+1
NH: Hills+1
TX: Trump+2
GA: Trump+2
FL: Hills+2
OH: Trump+2
IA: Trump+2
NC: Hills+3
AK: Hills+3
PA: Hills+5
NV: Hills+5
CO: Hills+6
MO: Trump+7
VA: Hills+8
WI: Hills+8
IN: Trump+8
SC: Trump+8

No other states within ten.

 

[BrokenFiction]

There's also a 0% chance anyone who isn't already voting for Hillary will care.

This election is baked in. HRC is going to win. But he still will do things to damage the GOP brand for years.

 

[Fragamemnon]

When Alaska becomes a swing state when women move there, will presidential nominees campaign there?

Asking because it's so out of the way of everything that it would be an interesting resource optimization problem.

I can't see it happening. I can maybe see surrogates in Fairbanks, but that's about it. Keep in mind that in AK there's also density issues that make it possible to get strong returns without a lot of ground game expenditure. I feel like you'd see the campaign just put money into registration, data, and ground game so that if things were close you could be in a position to tip the scales.

 

[Emarv]

My current expectations (didn't mess with NE's districts b/c I can't recall the situation there):

I love you guys for keeping the McMuffin Dream alive!

I mean, he called the people taking back Mosul and killing ISIS "losers" today.

Nothing will break through the horserace/emails coverage.

Yup. He also blatantly lied about Obama's reaction to the protester. Dude will be unhinged the next few days but nothing major will break through anymore.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

This be mine.

Utah goes McMuffin!

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Win or lose Ohio, there hasn't been a drop off in the GOTV in Cuyahoga County compared to the Obama campaign as far as I can tell.

 

[Stinkles]

This election is baked in. HRC is going to win. But he still will do things to damage the GOP brand for years.

He's one of the things that the GOP did to itself.

I'm not letting them use Trump as an out. They caused Trump. They nurtured this.

 

[Chezzymann]

Man whats with hillarys voice right now i can barely understand what she's saying

 

[Diablos]

Why are they cutting away from Hillary so we have to suffer through Melania. Does anyone really like her?

 

[BrokenFiction]

He's one of the things that the GOP did to itself.

I'm not letting them use Trump as an out. They caused Trump. They nurtured this.

Testify.


Here's my final prediction. My surprise gets are IA and AK.

 

[Dany]

MSM has been using kid gloves on Trump this entire election season.

So mad.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

"We didnt pick the wrong candidate, he did better than Romney!" .....thats their.....goal?

 

[Stinkles]

Why are they cutting away from Hillary so we have to suffer through Melania. Does anyone really like her?

She's probably saying the same words as Hillary so this is like eastern European closed captioning for hrc

 

[sazzy]

Raw vote margin: H+7% (minimum) to H+9% (maximum) w.r.t. D%

Electoral:

 

[Man God]

No, it would be 1, if Clinton doesn't somehow kill him or replace him. But honestly the odds of her getting either 270 or 271 are pretty slim.

270 years in prison more like.