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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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T

thcsquad

Member
newshinycd said:
Blue Georgia. I really hope to see that this Tuesday.

Also no one thinks that Texas is possible anymore? I thought early turnout was breaking records there too? Im thinking if it goes blue I think it's within .5%
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I think there's too much Republican inertia to go all the way. AZ starts closer so the same wave would put it over the top but leave TX short.

I'm 100% convinced TX will be within five and the voter registration advantage we gain through this cycle will make it a much smaller R lean going forward, even without Trump on the ballot. The GOP will have to spend a ton of money on TX in 2020.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
johnsmith said:
Going full hopium

Kjrdm.png
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Full hopium has to include Utah, Texas, and Georgia.
 
S

shiba5

Member
tuxfool said:
I still don't understand this trick or treating thing. Did lots of people dress up as Trump?

I thought it was the point of Halloween to dress up as a monster?
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The kid I had certainly thought so. I told him he was the scariest thing I'd seen all night and he was super happy about it. LOL
 
S

StormBrute

Member
Trouble said:
My gut tells me OH will ultimately come down to the fact that HRC has a ground game and Trump does not. Polling be damned.
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Trump may not have a ground game, but the Ohio GOP and Portman do, whereas conversely Strickland isn't helping out at all on the Democratic side.

I'm betting on Ohio in the end, but I'm not certain by any stretch. Gonna be close.

I went back-and-forth on Iowa, but I guess this will be my final prediction.
mbwXD.png

Expecting Alaska as the surprise, Ohio as absurdly close, Pennsylvania a bit closer than we would like because of the strike.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Y2Kev said:
That's not what his model says. His thing just says that assuming his earlier poll is right, turnout is coming in at exactly the rate his poll projected.

If the poll is wrong and she is behind by 4, for example, then it would show the same thing.
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Nope that +7 Clinton poll was only the starting point. Cohn lays out the methodology here:

Simply put: it tells you whether early voting should change the way you think about the race in North Carolina. If our estimates move, it indicates that early voting has made the electorate more or less favorable to Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump. If it doesn't, then it means that early voting isn't changing our view of the electorate.
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So all 2.8M votes so far has pulled the model in one point towards Trump as shown here:

Already, about 2,892,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,642,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 9 percentage points – among people who have already voted.
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A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Grexeno said:
My final prediction:

7zeBZ.png


States I'm not sure about:

Ohio leans Trump I think, but will probably be the closest state this year. Yes, closer than Florida.

NE-2 I'm iffy on, but I think it leans towards Hillary.

Arizona and Georgia are probably Trump, but will be closer than they have been in a long time.

Iowa is gone.
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So even if Trump wins Florida and Ohio it doesnt matter. Get rekt GOP.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Roland_Gunner said:
Nope that +7 Clinton poll was only the starting point. Cohn lays out the methodology here:



So all 2.8M votes so far has pulled the model in one point towards Trump as shown here:
Click to expand...

I don't think we're on the same page. He starts at Clinton + 7, right. That Clinton + 7 is built on a turnout assumption of X for whites, Y for blacks, Z for hispanics, Q for young people, etc. The turnout is coming in as he expected based on the poll (actually a little better for Clinton). So ASSUMING the sample was correct and the state IS C+7, the turnout confirms that. However, if the sample was wrong and it is really C+2 or C-55, then the turnout imputed in the model is irrelevant.

He's not saying it's proving C+6/7 and that's all over his twitter...
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Blader said:
I don't know much about Sandoval, but what little I've read about him seems pretty ok? Of course, he sounds like exactly the kind of moderate candidate who would pivot hard right in a primary.
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He's hispanic, moderate, and pretty popular in Nevada so he's the biggest threat of a GOP general election candidate. He could probably make serious plays for the heavily Hispanic swing states the way we feared Rubio would.

Getting through the primary is an issue but his home state is the third contest. I don't know if he's religious enough for Iowa but he could probably do Kasich-levels in New Hampshire and try to ride off that. I think he (or Kasich, depending on if Never Trump-ing is valuable in the primary) are the biggest 2020 threats.
 
E

Effect

Member
Just want to check, is there anyone (analyst, etc) seriously pushing the idea that Trump can or will win PA? I know polling is closer then I wish it was and it's a white whale but is it really just that white whale again? I haven't noticed a difference in terms of signs, etc here in Carbon County compared to the last few elections and this county typically goes red I think even though the state goes blue. I don't feel it's different this time but that's just anecdotal.

I guess this Philly strike is making me even more worried then I should be. That and the racist population of this state always worries and bothers me. Then there are the dead towns filled with people that rather be isolated and welcoming and still complain about their situations. People that should know certain jobs are forever gone and know why. Sigh.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Effect said:
Just want to check, is there anyone (analyst, etc) seriously pushing the idea that Trump can or will win PA? I know polling is closer then I wish it was and it's a white whale but is it really just that white whale again? I haven't noticed a difference in terms of signs, etc here in Carbon County compared to the last few elections and this county typically goes red I think even though the state goes blue. I don't feel it's different this time but that's just anecdotal.

I guess this Philly strike is making me even more worried then I should be. That and the racist population of this state always worries and bothers me. Then there are the dead towns filled with people that rather be isolated and welcoming and still complain about their situations. People that should know certain jobs are forever gone and know why. Sigh.
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I think it is because a combination of the strike + fall in AA voters seen in some states.
 
F

Finalizer

Member
newshinycd said:
Also no one thinks that Texas is possible anymore? I thought early turnout was breaking records there too? Im thinking if it goes blue I think it's within .5%
Click to expand...

ahem

Honestly though, even getting a purple Texas is a huge victory. That wasn't supposed to be a thing for decades, yet here we are with it being in the realm of possibility in 2016.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
AWjBB.png


Here's what I'm settling on, with the caveat that if Utah turns yellow, I won't be surprised, and neither will I be if Texas(!!!) or Alaska turns blue.
 
K

kmfdmpig

Member
Voysa Reezun said:
AWjBB.png


Here's what I'm settling on, with the caveat that if Utah turns yellow, I won't be surprised, and neither will I be if Texas(!!!) or Alaska turns blue.
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I wish I could share your optimism. I think Trump wins in GA, AZ, and one other and don't think TX will be close. I guess trump wins 205 to 220 EC votes. I hope you are right though.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
kmfdmpig said:
I wish I could share your optimism. I think Trump wins in GA, AZ, and one other and don't think TX will be close. I guess trump wins 205 to 220 EC votes. I hope you are right though.
Click to expand...

It sucks that Trump will likely do better than John McCain, and that's accounting for McCain being a shitty candidate who had an ineffective response to an economic crisis that his party presided over.

Trump should be earning sub-100 EVs in a fair and just world.
 
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