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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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G

gutter_trash

Banned
Manmademan said:
Trump winning would require something like a massive "hidden white vote" or "silent majority" no one saw coming.

Given that there was no massive increase in white registration, or increase in new white voters during the primary, its a pretty safe bet this doesn't exist.

If there's a MoE error, it's not in his favor.
Click to expand...

the "hideden vote" is with Hillary,

silent married women voting for Hillary who are in a marriage with a Trump supporting husband
 
N

Nafai1123

Banned
Just dropped my ballot off. CA so it's a ripple in a sea of blue but it felt good. Voted for legal weed, repealing the death penalty and giving the middle finger to big pharma.

If it looks like Hillary is going to take PA/FL early on Tuesday.

partying.gif


...if it looks like Trump is going to take PA/FL...well

raw
 
rokkerkory

rokkerkory

Member
Nafai1123 said:
Just dropped my ballot off. CA so it's a ripple in a sea of blue but it felt good. Voted for legal weed, repealing the death penalty and giving the middle finger to big pharma.

If it looks like Hillary is going to take PA/FL early on Tuesday.

partying.gif


...if it looks like Trump is going to take PA/FL...well

raw
Click to expand...

My man, same here from bay area. \m/
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Gee you don't think she's gonna lose this thing?
Click to expand...
On Friday I got nervous after seeing some stats about how the media reported Comey's bullshit and how low info voters react to it. Plus just lingering feelings from that. There were also too many polls, even if not of the best quality, in close states that I didn't like to see. Finally, the national polls tightening despite the fact that Trump is a literal crazed fascist with no GOTV is as terrifying as it is depressing.

That said, the early voting data looks great for Hillary, her ground game is formidable, and the enthusiasm seems to be bouncing back.

Since the first debate I thought she was going to win; I would have to say last week Comey's firebomb did shake my confidence and still does a bit because of undecideds. She doesn't need this cloud over her head right now, but it's there. As we head into the final stretch though I think it's going to be okay. Even if you read my posts last night the worst I said is she MIGHT lose, I never said she was going to. I think a Clinton loss is, again, possible but not probable.

If we fail to retake the Senate though, it's Comey's fault.
 
W

wumster3000

Member
Nafai1123 said:
Just dropped my ballot off. CA so it's a ripple in a sea of blue but it felt good. Voted for legal weed, repealing the death penalty and giving the middle finger to big pharma.
Click to expand...
*Fist bump*

I did the same. I want to see Trump get destroyed in CA and smoke a joint in the process.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I know most people are currently having anxiety attacks over some election stuff, but I was just reading an interesting exchange in the journal PS: Political Science & Politics (which is basically like the political science version of something like Science or Nature, intended for general audience readers) about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact--which I think some of you might be familiar with as the plan for states to basically dismantle the electoral college by agreeing to give their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, but only if enough states sign on that the result would determine the election.

The controversy is basically that two professors wrote a very detailed argument about why they think it's a bad plan:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...049096516001396a.pdf/a-calamitous-compact.pdf

Then the chief architect of the NPVIC argued they were wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...compact-a-response-to-dewitt-and-schwartz.pdf

Then the two professors argued he was wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...8903D1/S1049096516001621a.pdf/contra-koza.pdf

In total you're maybe looking at 20-30 pages and it's all written in pretty clear English with limited math and no statistical ability required to understand. If you're interested in the electoral college, institutional design, and how we translate votes to results, I think this is probably something worth checking out. I think the PDFs I linked are open access so you should be able to view them.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Stumpokapow said:
I know most people are currently having anxiety attacks over some election stuff, but I was just reading an interesting exchange in the journal PS: Political Science & Politics (which is basically like the political science version of something like Science or Nature, intended for general audience readers) about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact--which I think some of you might be familiar with as the plan for states to basically dismantle the electoral college by agreeing to give their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, but only if enough states sign on that the result would determine the election.

The controversy is basically that two professors wrote a very detailed argument about why they think it's a bad plan:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...049096516001396a.pdf/a-calamitous-compact.pdf

Then the chief architect of the NPVIC argued they were wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...compact-a-response-to-dewitt-and-schwartz.pdf

Then the two professors argued he was wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...8903D1/S1049096516001621a.pdf/contra-koza.pdf

In total you're maybe looking at 20-30 pages and it's all written in pretty clear English with limited math and no statistical ability required to understand. If you're interested in the electoral college, institutional design, and how we translate votes to results, I think this is probably something worth checking out. I think the PDFs I linked are open access so you should be able to view them.
Click to expand...

I'll have to take some time to look this over. I was once a big supporter of the compact but over time I've been increasingly concerned about its flaws. I'm all for electing the president by popular vote but I'm less and less sure this is the way to do it.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Spoiled Milk said:
We're looking at between 323 and 341 electoral votes. That's ok, I guess. Cheetoh Hitler deserves less.
Click to expand...
That's just it. The fact that he can be on par with Mitt Romney is just really, really scary. Fascism is knocking on our door.

Stumpokapow said:
I know most people are currently having anxiety attacks over some election stuff, but I was just reading an interesting exchange in the journal PS: Political Science & Politics (which is basically like the political science version of something like Science or Nature, intended for general audience readers) about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact--which I think some of you might be familiar with as the plan for states to basically dismantle the electoral college by agreeing to give their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, but only if enough states sign on that the result would determine the election.

The controversy is basically that two professors wrote a very detailed argument about why they think it's a bad plan:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...049096516001396a.pdf/a-calamitous-compact.pdf

Then the chief architect of the NPVIC argued they were wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...compact-a-response-to-dewitt-and-schwartz.pdf

Then the two professors argued he was wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...8903D1/S1049096516001621a.pdf/contra-koza.pdf

In total you're maybe looking at 20-30 pages and it's all written in pretty clear English with limited math and no statistical ability required to understand. If you're interested in the electoral college, institutional design, and how we translate votes to results, I think this is probably something worth checking out. I think the PDFs I linked are open access so you should be able to view them.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I will try to read this in the next day or two
 
E

Emarv

Member
Stumpokapow said:
I know most people are currently having anxiety attacks over some election stuff, but I was just reading an interesting exchange in the journal PS: Political Science & Politics (which is basically like the political science version of something like Science or Nature, intended for general audience readers) about the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact--which I think some of you might be familiar with as the plan for states to basically dismantle the electoral college by agreeing to give their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, but only if enough states sign on that the result would determine the election.

The controversy is basically that two professors wrote a very detailed argument about why they think it's a bad plan:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...049096516001396a.pdf/a-calamitous-compact.pdf

Then the chief architect of the NPVIC argued they were wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...compact-a-response-to-dewitt-and-schwartz.pdf

Then the two professors argued he was wrong:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...8903D1/S1049096516001621a.pdf/contra-koza.pdf

In total you're maybe looking at 20-30 pages and it's all written in pretty clear English with limited math and no statistical ability required to understand. If you're interested in the electoral college, institutional design, and how we translate votes to results, I think this is probably something worth checking out. I think the PDFs I linked are open access so you should be able to view them.
Click to expand...

Good stuff. Added to my Instapaper. I've always been curious which battleground states are even close enough to go for something like this. I just can't imagine Ohio not lobbying crazy hard against such a redesign.
 
S

shiba5

Member
thebloo said:
I don't know what you mean.

CwhXjUyWgAAiksu.jpg:small
Click to expand...

The SopanDeb Twitter feed is a gold mine of Trump word salad. I seriously don't know how his base understands what he's saying. Maybe that's why they just chant the same simple slogans after he finishes barfing out whatever point he is trying to make.

Oh and one of his supporters was interviewed and said that congress controls the nukes anyway so Trump won't have access to the big red button. Dude was old too - like how do you live that long with no idea how things work?
 
Y

YaBish

Member
My housemate convinced me to phonebank for Hillary on Monday in NE-2 even though I don't really have the time. My grades aren't as important as the future of the country.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I was watching 92 election coverage last night and people were chanting "LANDSLIDE!" when Bill came out.

Let's bring that back
Click to expand...
1980 election coverage is the best. They actually tell the viewers that the electoral map may be hard to read due to the shades of red/blue and how they look on black and white TV's. Then one of the anchors basically tells everyone to get a color TV because they're getting so cheap.

Also Chris Wallace does a report from somewhere and he looks like he has a bowl on his head.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
thcsquad said:
Honestly, it's kind of yawn-worthy. It does kind of illustrate what most people that already know; when Trump talks about Hillary being corrupt and her pals in power protecting her, he's mostly just projecting. But given what we all know about him, it's pretty tame.

The Melania story has more of a chance of turning some heads and maybe making a few GOPers stay home.
Click to expand...

The story is that the Enquirer dropped $150K to specifically protect Trump. That is not yawn-worthy.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
At King of Prussia Mall, saw a guy running around out front with a Trump sign. Almost screamed FASCIST at him but traffic took me out of his way.
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
Manmademan said:
don't need it to. if hillary is at the point where she wins texas it's a landslide everywhere else.

Texas being CLOSE means democrats might pick up some house seats they weren't expecting- which might be the case this year, depending on turnout.
Click to expand...

What districts are possible pick ups for Democrats in Texas besides 23rd?
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Titanoboa said:
KOP is in one of the most conservative non-redneck PA districts. They're all voting for offshoots like Johnson and that Constitution guy though.
Click to expand...

no it isn't. It's in montgomery county.

Montgomery County (2012)
100.0% Reporting

B. Obama (i) Dem 56.6% 227,561
M. Romney GOP 42.3% 169,903
G. Johnson Lib 0.8% 3,168
J. Stein Grn 0.3% 1,155

Obama crushed it there in 2012. It's nowhere anywhere NEAR the most conservative areas in PA.

But that aside, the mall itself is a big tourist trap. not a whole lot of actual residents near there, but a lot of out of towners coming to shop for whatever and eat at the cheesecake factory.
 
G

geomon

Member
Republican Election Judge Committed Voter Fraud

A Madison County election judge is facing felony charges of voter fraud, only days before the election.

Audrey R. Cook, 88, of Alton is accused of sending in an absentee ballot in her late husband’s name. Cook is a Republican election judge in Madison County, according to Madison County State’s Attorney Tom Gibbons. She was charged Friday with two felony election-fraud counts.

Cook said Friday she doesn’t see that she did anything wrong. She and her husband, Vic Cook, served as election judges for many years together.

“My husband was very sick, and we applied for absentee ballots for both of us,” she said. “We got them a couple of days after he died, and I knew how he wanted to vote.”

Cook said it has been very hard for her, having lost her husband of 66 years.

“He was a decent, honest and wonderful man,” she said, breaking down crying. “I knew what he wanted... Now they’re not going to count it.”

Cook was not in custody as of Friday afternoon. The prosecutor's office said Cook will be allowed to turn herself in. A judge has set bond at $20,000. Each count carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison.
Click to expand...
 
N

nature boy

Member
U.S. Govt. Hackers Ready to Hit Back If Russia Tries to Disrupt Election


U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia's electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin's command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News.

American officials have long said publicly that Russia, China and other nations have probed and left hidden malware on parts of U.S critical infrastructure, "preparing the battlefield," in military parlance, for cyber attacks that could turn out the lights or turn off the internet across major cities.

It's been widely assumed that the U.S. has done the same thing to its adversaries. The documents reviewed by NBC News — along with remarks by a senior U.S. intelligence official — confirm that, in the case of Russia.
...

As NBC News reported Thursday, the U.S. government is marshaling resources to combat the threat in a way that is without precedent for a presidential election.

The cyber weapons would only be deployed in the unlikely event the U.S. was attacked in a significant way, officials say.

...
Click to expand...
 
P

Plumbob

Member
adam387 said:
Not being shady, but how anyone has NV red is beyond me. We have actual evidence unlike shitty polls that show us what is happening there!
Click to expand...

Listen, I campaigned in Nevada for Hillary. Lots of people who are feeling cynical/overtargetted by the campaigns. Hispanic early voter activation is a great thing to see though.
 
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