Hasphat'sAnts
Member
Just finished canvassing.
Democracy is exhausting work 😔😔
Democracy is exhausting work 😔😔
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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GregLombardi
Member
You mean 0 EVs.
cartoon_soldier
Member
How did it go?q
Chezzymann
Member
Even if Stalin or Hitler ran, I don't think they'd get sub 100 EVS. The political climate is too polarized. As long as they don't want abortion, will repeal ObamaCare, and will nominate conservative justices, they will get most the regular red states any of their crazier policies, or huge problems with their character, doesn't matter.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, it's why I was surprised to see the South Korean president with 5% approval.
Trump could be convicted of murder while running a cult and still get AT LEAST a 20% approval rating.
My final predictions:
1. Final map if the polls were inaccurate and what we're seeing on the ground and in data thus far continues to look good heading into Election Day:
edit: I do see AK as a possible upset but did not think it was worth making a new map for. Ditto for AZ.
2. Final map if the polls are more accurate:
Leaning more towards #1 right now.
1. Final map if the polls were inaccurate and what we're seeing on the ground and in data thus far continues to look good heading into Election Day:
edit: I do see AK as a possible upset but did not think it was worth making a new map for. Ditto for AZ.
2. Final map if the polls are more accurate:
Leaning more towards #1 right now.
User 463088
Banned
A friend and I are hashing out where we think the maps are gonna end up.
We both agree that Hispanic polling is a crapshoot (notoriously hard to reach + potential language barriers + strange white guy with all your information asking you personal questions) which puts states like Nevada (as we've seen already), Florida (ditto), Arizona and yes, potentially Texas, into play. Factor in suburban and even rural Republicans who may be on the NeverTrump Express and there really are no "safe" bets for Trump. Even Alaska is in play.
I think this is her floor;
Arizona's Hispanics are gonna come out swinging, if the snowbirds are apathetic, it's hers.
Georgia had a strong push in 2008 and 2012 to flip the state. I think it's contested.
Iowa is still up in the air, but likely R.
Ohio is still up in the air.
Utah goes McMuffin or Trump (in that order).
What I want to happen: Hail to the Queen(s)
We both agree that Hispanic polling is a crapshoot (notoriously hard to reach + potential language barriers + strange white guy with all your information asking you personal questions) which puts states like Nevada (as we've seen already), Florida (ditto), Arizona and yes, potentially Texas, into play. Factor in suburban and even rural Republicans who may be on the NeverTrump Express and there really are no "safe" bets for Trump. Even Alaska is in play.
I think this is her floor;
Arizona's Hispanics are gonna come out swinging, if the snowbirds are apathetic, it's hers.
Georgia had a strong push in 2008 and 2012 to flip the state. I think it's contested.
Iowa is still up in the air, but likely R.
Ohio is still up in the air.
Utah goes McMuffin or Trump (in that order).
What I want to happen: Hail to the Queen(s)
Roland_Gunner
Member
Okay I see what you're saying. It was hasty of me to say that Clinton is +6 per this model. Still Cohn does say that changes in the model's trendline are indicative of movement in the race and there hasn't been any. So I guess we can say that so far North Carolinians are turning out in a way that is demographically consistent with one poll that has Clinton up by 6 points.
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
Really nice day out so not a ton of folks home. Most people I talked to had already voted which is encouraging
whyamihere
Banned
If the polls are accurate HRC wins NC and FL, Diablos
newshinycd
Member
Jugendstil
Member
Pence looking like he shit himself and is trying to pass it off unnoticed.
This is the definition of a cursed image.
He's adjusted the polls to account for systematic polling error.
Chezzymann
Member
Bet fox news would spin it as self defense and the judge was a liberal
cartoon_soldier
Member
Clinton campaign will also air a 2 minute TV ad Monday
Four_Chamber
Member
Me and the wife phonebanking for Hillary in Pennsylvania today along with 20 others, getting lots of positive responses. We are targeting minority voters but I'm optimistic about our chances!
Can't rest during this election- if that monster is elected and we (as minorities) sit idly by, that won't be excused.
Can't rest during this election- if that monster is elected and we (as minorities) sit idly by, that won't be excused.
Manmademan
Member
south korea is pretty much only full of koreans though.
The republican party will always have at least 30% of the vote because of racists who hate blacks and mexicans and don't care about anything else.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Well, yeah, but in a fair and just world, Trump wouldn't have made it out of the GOP primaries in the first place. Unfortunately...
What has been most striking to me about this election is that there are a large amount of people who would let Russia dominate us on the world state and who would be fine with losing everything they have in an economic crisis just to make sure that women, black and brown folks, and LGBTQ folks were miserable, too.
What a bleak, nihilistic, and pathetic worldview that is! And that's a good forty percent of the country that is good for at least 150 EVs every four years! Fuuuuuck, man.
Hey, I think you should give Diablos credit that s/he was able to put together a Debbie Downer map that still had Clinton hitting 270+ EVs.
If that was cartoon_soldier's map, Trump would somehow have 350 EVs.
Isn't 2 minutes a bit long?
My final predictions:
1. Final map if the polls were inaccurate and what we're seeing on the ground and in data thus far continues to look good heading into Election Day:
2. Final map if the polls are more accurate:
Leaning more towards #1 right now.
I'm proud of you
GurgleBot20
Member
Just got back from voting. Hoping that I helped prove those Ohio turning red predictions wrong :/
I'm being generous to Trump in my second map, accounting for, you know, systemic polling error as an ode to Nate Silver as he likely becomes irrelevant after this election unless Trump wins bigly. Basically it's a map for those who think Trump's win is being hidden by the MoE. It's possible, but I don't think likely at this point
Also I'm a he. Thanks
Also I'm a he. Thanks
Manmademan
Member
Trump winning would require something like a massive "hidden white vote" or "silent majority" no one saw coming.
Given that there was no massive increase in white registration, or increase in new white voters during the primary, its a pretty safe bet this doesn't exist.
If there's a MoE error, it's not in his favor.
You'll have to be more specific.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Texas I think is possible, depending on how much Dems have eaten into their election day vote.
But the margins I see happening are between Trump +3 and Hill +.5
I think the Trump margin is the stronger position to be.
But the margins I see happening are between Trump +3 and Hill +.5
I think the Trump margin is the stronger position to be.
Playmate affair that the national enquirer covered up in the late 90s
I know but the entire narrative out of the prime time talking head arena last night is that these polls are way too close and Trump never should be able to close the gap like this and blah blah and it's like 1980 when Reagan surged ahead. This is me tipping my hat to them, as I do think it's possible but not probable. And honestly if you take a lot of the "crappy" polls we've seen lately you can come to the conclusion that the map would look that way. So yeah.
And I've gotta say to much of the mainstream media and clickbait like 538, the final results are being made to look closer than they should be. That map is for them. "The polls are right".
nature boy
Member
No one cares about the National Enquirer, especially since they're in the tank for Trump
National Enquirer bought the rights to Trump's mistress story in August and never had any intentions of putting it out.
User 463088
Banned
Y'all want some anecdotal hopium? I live in a red part of Ohio. A friend of mine just texted me and said they had 27 people show up for Hillary. They're right by the GOP office (Trump doesn't have an office near me which is stupid!) Anyway, the GOP had 2 volunteers show up. They just sent them home. In 2012, we were outnumbered by a bit with the Rmoney office.
Edit: 27 may not sound like a lot, but it actually is for us. I didn't have time to go, but phone banking helps. Too hard to figure out what to do with the boys.
Edit: 27 may not sound like a lot, but it actually is for us. I didn't have time to go, but phone banking helps. Too hard to figure out what to do with the boys.
Baron von Loathsome
Member
It used to be a subsidiary of Bain Capital, too. Hence, I've nicknamed it "Mitt Romney pizza."
StopMakingSense
Member
Affair was in 2006, after married to Melania. Woman was Playmate of the Year in the 90's.
Manmademan
Member
I hope it's not real. Just because that woman is waay to hot for Trump.
Yeah, but how many Trump signs and Trump masks have you seen? Checkmate, liberals.
There's no fucking way Clinton wins here and McGinty doesn't. The Morning Call should know better. I'm offended
BrokenFiction
Member
Honestly, it's kind of yawn-worthy. It does kind of illustrate what most people that already know; when Trump talks about Hillary being corrupt and her pals in power protecting her, he's mostly just projecting. But given what we all know about him, it's pretty tame.
The Melania story has more of a chance of turning some heads and maybe making a few GOPers stay home.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Gee you don't think she's gonna lose this thing?My final predictions:
1. Final map if the polls were inaccurate and what we're seeing on the ground and in data thus far continues to look good heading into Election Day:
edit: I do see AK as a possible upset but did not think it was worth making a new map for. Ditto for AZ.
2. Final map if the polls are more accurate:
Leaning more towards #1 right now.
Based on what I've seen, Trump's strategy for signs is "bigger is better". Like, homes will have these HUGE ASS SIGNS that are made for offices or polling stations on someone's front lawn just leaning against the guard rail going up to their steps. It's fucking ridiculous but it speaks volumes to Trump's bully mentality if you think about it. Just spam your supporters with the biggest signs possible if they're willing to take them home to flex your imaginary muscles.
nature boy
Member
Economist endorses Hillary: http://www.economist.com/news/leade...tical-vote-hillary-clinton-americas-best-hope
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