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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 21m21 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Nate Cohn Retweeted Steve Schale
Florida electorate poised to be more diverse than our poll, or most of our September panelists
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Good news for Clinnin
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
royalan said:
Something I've been meaning to ask for MONTHS now...

What does (((Name))) mean?
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(((globalist)))

Actually, some Neo-Nazi idiot said he was going to create a program on twitter that would somehow highlight all Jewish tweeters. So, to be proactive, Jewish journalist began to put that around their name.
 
A

ampere

Member
royalan said:
Something I've been meaning to ask for MONTHS now...

What does (((Name))) mean?
Click to expand...

Someone made a script that would put them around Jewish people's names on twitter as an anti-semetic crusade

So when when people heard about it, they started doing it to themselves to say "fuck you" to anti-semetism
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
royalan said:
Something I've been meaning to ask for MONTHS now...

What does (((Name))) mean?
Click to expand...

So the KKK and alt right and other assorted shitheads created software to identify known Jewish journalists and put ((( ))) around their names to make them easier to target.

So if you see (((Seth Rosenberg))) or whatever, Seth has probably chosen to do that himself to fuck over their software.

It's antisemitism from the alt right (again). Assfacesange happens to also be an antisemite.
 
A

Armaros

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
NeoNazis created a browser extension that put parenthesis around Jewish names because Nazis are freaks.

Jewish people and journalists put parentheses around their names to reclaim it ahead of time.
Click to expand...

Also non-jewish people doing it to mess up their software and for solidarity with the people targeted.
 
T

thebloo

Member
From the GOAT of this election, https://twitter.com/onlxn, some older stuff.

HILLARY: They nailed me on the Goldman transcripts. Matter of time.
MOOK: Yep. They're not THAT bad, just... douchy?
HILLARY: Right. Douchy.
MOOK: The "public position vs. private position" stuff isn't playing great.
HILLARY: A politician using politics. God fuckin' forbid

MOOK: Lefties are mad about the trade stuff.
HILLARY: Everyone on Twitter's a fuckin' trade expert.
MOOK: Still--
HILLARY: I know, not great

MOOK: The speeches were a mistake.
HILLARY: Ya think, Robby? Never thought about it that way!
MOOK: Ha, sorry.
HILLARY: Fuckin' fuck me. Oy

HILLARY: Anyone ever offer you $250,000 to have a boring lunch with some assholes?
MOOK: Nope.
HILLARY: Well, if they ever do, say NO
Click to expand...
 
K

kimbaka

Member
Manmademan said:
not really, no.

there are about 1700 divisions within the city- polling places are all within a few minutes walking distance. If anyone really wants to go vote they can do so easily without SEPTA.

from an employer prospective everyone knows SEPTA is down and transportation is fucked. no one is going to be on time for anything, anywhere- if employers are even running regular hours. retail and food service are probably running limited hours due to the lack of consumer traffic.

and regional rail is still working, since that's on a different union. That will take you between center city on 10th or so to university city out near 30th street in a couple of minutes. this is where a lot of the schools and business is. Same thing for north broad, temple, etc etc.

If someone really wants to vote, SEPTA not running isn't really going to get in the way of that.
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Alright, that's reassuring. From what I've read on Philly forums, it sounds like it could mostly affect working people whose commute times have jumped to 1-2 hours each way due to the inconvenience. Hopefully they all manage to find the time to exercise their right to vote.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
YES!

@Marc_Goldberg (Hassan's campaign manager):
Dem field offices swamped today with vols. Strongest, most experienced ground game in NH history #fieldwins #nhpolitics #nhsen
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There have been tweets and pics of GOTV operations taking place in New Hampshire and Philly today; I'm loving itl
 
U

UraMallas

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Special election is in 1 year which they could easily lose.

Why Warren was less of a risk to the Senate than Kaine. I trust a Mass Special senate election than a Virginia one.
Click to expand...

And you bet your ass a 50R 49D+1 Senate is going to hold up any SCOTUS vote until then. That Senate race would be a bloodbath.

Need 51D Senate on Nov 9 to get that SCOTUS swinging.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Love Trumps Nate
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Holy shit.

thebloo said:
Pretty amusing that he talks about irresponsible, while also using sports comparisons multiple times and doing his stupid punditry.
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And responding to criticisms of his model ignoring early voting by crying like a punk about people picking on him.

He's shit. Even if his model needs tweaking, that's not the issue. The issue is that he can't take the valid criticism of his model, the criticisms of his shitty punditry (complete with comparisons to sporting events, which honestly Good Nate needs to cut the fuck out, too), and the fact that guys like Cohn and Wang do what he does except better than he does it.
 
G

geomon

Member
Donald Trump is refusing to pay his campaign pollster three-quarters of a million dollars

Donald Trump's hiring of pollster Tony Fabrizio in May was viewed as a sign that the real estate mogul was finally bringing seasoned operatives into his insurgent operation.

But the Republican presidential nominee appears to have taken issue with some of the services provided by the veteran GOP strategist, who has advised candidates from 1996 GOP nominee Bob Dole to Florida Gov. Rick Scott. The Trump campaign's latest Federal Election Commission report shows that it is disputing nearly $767,000 that Fabrizio's firm says it is still owed for polling.

Trump campaign officials declined to provide details about the reason the campaign has declined to pay the sum to Fabrizio Lee, the pollster's Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based firm. “This is an administrative issue that we're resolving internally,” said senior communications adviser Jason Miller. Fabrizio did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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Does this fucking guy pay anyone who works for him?
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
OK so /r/the_donald linked to this email where apparently hillary sent classified information to her daughter, who apparently goes by the fake name "Diane Reynolds" I can't find a direct source for that being true though, and apparently the email itself was redacted cause its classified

https://foia.state.gov/searchapp/DOCUMENTS/Nov04_2016/F-2016-07895_1-6/DOC_0C06133822/C06133822.pdf

There's probably something that I'm missing that explains why this is a nothing burger but im bad at this so if y'all could do the explaining for me that would be great

I cant find anyone explaining this besides alt right websites i dont trust
 
T

thebloo

Member
Voysa Reezun said:
Holy shit.



And responding to criticisms of his model ignoring early voting by crying like a punk about people picking on him.

He's shit. Even if his model needs tweaking, that's not the issue. The issue is that he can't take the valid criticism of his model, the criticisms of his shitty punditry (complete with comparisons to sporting events, which honestly Good Nate needs to cut the fuck out, too), and the fact that guys like Cohn and Wang do what he does except better than he does it.
Click to expand...

I don't really care about the model and I don't think I've ever criticized it. It makes pretty maps and I can understand why it's pretty difficult to have a statistical model that takes everything into the equation.

BUT, like, guy, shut the hell up. Eh, someone is having fun:

(((Harry Enten))) ForecasterEnten

So many subtweets to be had.
Click to expand...
 
E

Emarv

Member
Again, I think it's a little much to dogpile on Nate when he's giving sound reasoning at a macro level. Litigating the details and individual methodolgies is definitely warranted. But his notion of using a model that correlates the states and takes into account National Polls has not been entirely disputed yet, scientifically.

Wang's notion of a state independent meta-margin is also a defensible path to this whole thing. Our sample size is so small and overall polling is very easy to "call" and defend your method as the correct one.

The problem is that Nate needs to stop being thin-skinned and continue to help educate the public on his model's successes and failings. I bet it must be super frustrating for non-math people to misconstrue you, but that's how math and science works. That's the field he's in.
 
Green Yoshi

Green Yoshi

Member
If voter turnout is high, does this increase the chances of the Democrats to win the majority in the congress? 2016 was a horrible year for the Republican party after all.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Nate, WAIT FOR IT, WAIT FOR IT, WAIT--



This feels like Silver's Reynolds Pamphlet.
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This is such metal gear plotline.

*Silver becomes famous because of focusing on facts and evidence
*Starts going down the path of punditry in his own way of looking at facts and evidence
*Starts accusing others of not willing to accept his version of facts and evidence

Cant make this up. He's going to start Pollsters Sans Frontieres in the next few days.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Green Yoshi said:
If voter turnout is high, does this increase the chances of the Democrats to win the majority in the congress? 2016 was a horrible year for the Republican party after all.
Click to expand...
Senate is absolutely in play. House... probably not barring a miracle. I think 25 seats is our ceiling. Gerrymandering is fucking us hard.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Olivia being perfect.

Olivia Nuzzi
‏@Olivianuzzi
According to my model both nerds are losing by virtue of the fact that they're arguing about math on a Saturday.
 
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