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[jbug617]

Michigan got me shook.

 

[Y2Kev]

Latest polls were, what:

PPP +5
Strategic National Tie (who is this)
EPIC-MRA +4
Mitchell +3

Basically not a lot of quality polling. I don't think it's a bad idea to spend time there and in PA considering those two states lock down the election. Where WOULD you want Hillary if not here?

 

[Manmademan]

I've been telling you guys.

The biggest story of the election is going to be the increase in the latino vote. The second is going to be Dems losing their grip on the rustbelt. It's not going to hurt them this election, but it's still going to be true.

rustbelt is shrinking anyway, so how big of a deal is this, really.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I've been advocating for Love Trumps 538 FRAUD

I don't think it's a bad idea to spend time there and in PA considering those two states lock down the election. Where WOULD you want Hillary if not here?

Ohio and Nevada, which lock down the election.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Her lead in MI probably went from the high single digits/low double digits to mid to high single digits. Also, since MI does not have early voting her campaign is trying to get people in MI to vote on November 8th.

Yeah, you'd rather have Obama in Atlanta on Monday but gotta slam the door in Michigan. Its a bummer, but the Comey letter really messed up the campaign's closing message.

Losing? It's been long gone.

Obama won literally the entire rust belt years ago.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I've been telling you guys.

The biggest story of the election is going to be the increase in the latino vote. The second is going to be Dems losing their grip on the rustbelt. It's not going to hurt them this election, but it's still going to be true.

You're right but I also think the GOP needs a disruptive candidate like Trump to soften the rust belt. Far right conservative like Cruz or whoever and they probably lose blue-collar union whites again.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Latest polls were, what:

PPP +5
Strategic National Tie (who is this)
EPIC-MRA +4
Mitchell +3

Basically not a lot of quality polling. I don't think it's a bad idea to spend time there and in PA considering those two states lock down the election. Where WOULD you want Hillary if not here?

Considering they've been all over Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, etc. The past week and have a few days left. Shore up the firewall states.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Michigan voting for Donald "we will repeal all environmental regulations" Trump one year after their governor poisoned an entire city seems like it would be very odd.

 

[Y2Kev]

I've been advocating for Love Trumps 538 FRAUD



Ohio and Nevada, which lock down the election.

Nevada is nonsense, which I think you know but are being Krissy. And Ohio she was just in and is going back tomorrow.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Latest polls were, what:

PPP +5
Strategic National Tie (who is this)
EPIC-MRA +4
Mitchell +3

Basically not a lot of quality polling. I don't think it's a bad idea to spend time there and in PA considering those two states lock down the election. Where WOULD you want Hillary if not here?

Not in states that were not considered swing states till last week.

 

[Loudninja]

Michigan has no early voting. (or almost no early voting). You are totally dependent upon your day of turnout. Demographically, Michigan is better for her than Wisconsin, yet we know Trump has given up on Wisconsin because of early voting. With PA and MI, you have one chance to get this thing right. It makes sense to go there.

Yep this is how you do it,not go to a state after early voting.

 

[Emarv]

Michigan has no early voting. (or almost no early voting). You are totally dependent upon your day of turnout. Demographically, Michigan is better for her than Wisconsin, yet we know Trump has given up on Wisconsin because of early voting. With PA and MI, you have one chance to get this thing right. It makes sense to go there.

Yuppppp. Sending Hillary and Obama makes total sense, even if you're up by a decent amount. Like Jon Lovett said, the Clinton camp does not seem scared in the slightest. We would have a ton of reporting and it'd be pretty obvious by their actions if they were worried.

I sometimes think people forget who Hillary Fucking Clinton is. This is about leaving nothing to chance and playing the game correctly.

 

[SexyFish]

Fuck me Donald is in Reno tonight?


WHY? NEVADA IS DONE.

 

[kirblar]

Obama won literally the entire rust belt years ago.

Yes, but demographics are changing- specifically, kids (us Millennials) are moving out, and they're not looking back. Its going to get more and more difficult as time goes on - but the map's changing to where that's not as big a problem anymore.

 

[Boke1879]

I mean I have no issues with them in Michigan. I doubt it goes red, but it's always best not to be overconfident.

 

[User 463088]

Not in states that were not considered swing states till last week.

No one is considering Michigan a swing state. That is now how this works!

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I think the issue in Michigan is they didn't hey the AA turnout/vote in primaries. They might be facing same issue again.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

That being said, someone I used to date is on my facebook right now, posting about going to a Trump rally. she's been SUPER republican lately and has had a habit of posting diet racist republican memes about michelle obama.

I'm so conflicted. was I banging a racist?

It depends. In the middle of intercourse, did she ever squeal "YES, the irish got along just fine without government support so it's up to black people to do the same, YES!"

 

[cartoon_soldier]

CALL: Trump spox Jason Miller says Trump's Monday sked still firming up, but no plans for another Ohio visit. "Feel very good" about OH.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I mean I have no issues with them in Michigan. I doubt it goes red, but it's always best not to be overconfident.

Yep, it's not like I'm yelling at them to be somewhere else.

Just sort that fucking strike out SEPTA

 

[Basileus777]

Here comes the negative swing in the thread.

Not likely.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Yes, but demographics are changing- specifically, kids (us Millennials) are moving out, and they're not looking back. Its going to get more and more difficult as time goes on - but the map's changing to where that's not as big a problem anymore.

you'll still have the millennials who are non-college stuck there with no way to move.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hillary is running ads in Arizona.

Let that sink in.

But yes her campaign is probably panicking over losing Michigan. Ffs.

 

[thebloo]

Not in states that were not considered swing states till last week.

You want them in Texas and Utah?

Also, references to the Michigan primary are as relevant as ones to Brexit. As in, they're not.

 

[metalslimer]

Oh come off it Michigan is not going red.

 

[Green Yoshi]

Michigan has no chance of going red.

Perhaps they read too much texts from Michael Moore? ;-)

When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.

http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Nevada is nonsense, which I think you know but are being Krissy. And Ohio she was just in and is going back tomorrow.

I don't know what you mean. Nevada is not nonsense, she definitely has a good chance of winning the state. Or do you mean it's already wrapped up? In which case, sure, then we should be securing Michigan, which is what you said.

 

[Manmademan]

It depends. In the middle of intercourse, did she ever squeal "YES, the irish got along just fine without government support so it's up to black people to do the same, YES!"

no, mostly just dropping the N word but I thought that was just being kinky

 

[thefro]

I think 538's model should be taken pretty seriously now. I have big issues with how variable it's been but the obvious problem there was always that it was neglecting the possibility of movement in the time left before the election. Now that there's no time left before the election the only thing that was clearly fishy isn't an issue anymore.

Well, the model's only as good as the quantity/quality of polls you feed into it and those have gotten quite a bit worse since 2012.

Ideally you'd have a site that does their own HQ polling like the Upshot (as a good data point) and then feeds early vote totals into the model on top of what Silver does with the 538 model.

You also wouldn't weight crappy polls who claim to contact a bunch of voters higher than good quality polls.

Basically the model does weird stuff you wouldn't expect due to a lack of quality polling (Gallup not doing a Presidential tracker hurts).

 

[Paches]

Nate Silver is literally melting down.

 

[Xamtheking]

no, mostly just dropping the N word but I thought that was just being kinky

She said "Nate Silver" during intercourse?

Spoiler

lol

 

[Spoiled Milk]

You also wouldn't weight crappy polls who claim to contact a bunch of voters higher than good quality polls.

YOU DO IF THE QUALITY OF THE POLL PRODUCES A SMALLER MARGIN OF ERROR THAN THE SAMPLE SIZE

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

[Chezzymann]

What would happen if McDonalds publicly said that if McMullin wins Utah, they'll give free McMuffins to everyone? Would that influence anything?

 

[brianmcdoogle]

whoops. Pic won't load.

 

[Oblivion]

rustbelt is shrinking anyway, so how big of a deal is this, really.

Between OH, MI and WI, that's 47 votes. Let's not act like it wouldn't be a problem if we lost them. Especially since it looks like we've lost Iowa.

 

[Manmademan]

She said "Nate Silver" during intercourse?

Spoiler

lol

No one has ever said "Nate Silver" during intercourse.

Between OH, MI and WI, that's 47 votes. Let's not act like it wouldn't be a problem if we lost them. Especially since it looks like we've lost Iowa.

I don't think of the rust belt as entire states- but rather certain cities, counties, and geographic areas. These are getting smaller as those old steel workers die off, new industry moves in, and millennials migrate elsewhere.

Pittsburgh used to be a poster child for "rust belt town" but it no longer is. It's almost entirely transitioned over to new industry and younger generations aren't really pining for steel jobs to come back.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

No one has ever said "Nate Silver" during intercourse.

Woof.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Did anything end up really surprising the Obama campaign in '08 or '12 in the election results?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Perhaps they read too much texts from Michael Moore? ;-)



http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

Lol people inferring general election results from primary results.

We should have gone with Bernie, he'd be sweeping every red state right now.

 

[Basileus777]

No one has ever said "Nate Silver" during intercourse.

What about Trash Nate?

 

[Third Strike]

Did anything end up really surprising the Obama campaign in '08 or '12 in the election results?

Indiana in 2008.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Did anything end up really surprising the Obama campaign in '08 or '12 in the election results?

Probably not the Obama campaign, but I think Obama winning FL and carrying VA by a slightly larger margin than the country as a whole were mildly surprising.

 

[TestOfTide]

YES!

@Marc_Goldberg (Hassan's campaign manager):


There have been tweets and pics of GOTV operations taking place in New Hampshire and Philly today; I'm loving itl

Yep, where I am volunteering, it was PACKED.

BTW, I did FOUR canvassing packets today. I am so proud of myself.

 

[User 463088]

Re: Obama and Hillary going to MI
‏@justinjm1
Justin Miller Retweeted Chad Livengood
This is about the House: MI-7, MI-8 are GOP seats won by Obama in 2008, lost in 2012.

 

[Y2Kev]

Did anything end up really surprising the Obama campaign in '08 or '12 in the election results?

Surprising the campaign or the media? From the way the campaigners talk (Plouffe, Axelrod on down to like...Jon Favreau), no, it played out identically to how they had it modeled. Feels a little weird and maybe some hindsight bias/bragging, but dunno.

Cartoon_soldiderablos: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/795005588715479040

This also makes sense. Doesn't need to go to NV, doesn't need to go to CO, already going to be in OH/FL/NC.

Re: Obama and Hillary going to MI
‏@justinjm1
Justin Miller Retweeted Chad Livengood
This is about the House: MI-7, MI-8 are GOP seats won by Obama in 2008, lost in 2012.

Mook did say internals are tightening, it makes sense to go.

I wonder how many polls Clinton has in the field right now.

 

[jbug617]

Media is going to eat up that Hillary and Obama is going to Michigan.

 

[thcsquad]

You're right but I also think the GOP needs a disruptive candidate like Trump to soften the rust belt. Far right conservative like Cruz or whoever and they probably lose blue-collar union whites again.

I agree: the movement in Hillary's direction this year, Hispanic registration, is stickier than Trump's appeal to the rust belt. I think we will have a couple election cycles, maybe starting eight years from now where Texas and Arizona both lean blue (and Florida is safe) before michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lean red.

 

[Plumbob]

Media is going to eat up that Hillary and Obama is going to Michigan.

Well she did lose it in the primary.

 

[thebloo]

Re: Obama and Hillary going to MI
‏@justinjm1
Justin Miller Retweeted Chad Livengood
This is about the House: MI-7, MI-8 are GOP seats won by Obama in 2008, lost in 2012.

No, it's tightening. Panic!

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Trump was talking about how he will force our allies in the ME to pay for a no fly zone. That is laughable on multiple levels and displays a complete lack of understanding what's going on there.

More than a few voters vote Republican simply because that is the party that is supposed to be strong on foreign policy and national security. That has to be diminished now. Another reason to be confident that Clinton is going to win.