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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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Roland_Gunner
Member
The difference is that far more people are doing early voting now than in the past. In states like Nevada and Florida something like 60%+ of all the votes will come in before election day. Even Nate has said that the Nevada early vote points to a Clinton win, he just doesn't have a way to include that in his model.
newshinycd
Member
Trump's campaign has no idea wtf its doing -> Everyone in PoliGAF posts hopium maps
Hillary's campaign is going to MI -> Everyone suddenly loses control of their bladder.
Watching Bill Maher's interview of Obama, this made me laugh
"I'm chewing the heck out of Nicorette"
Glad he is still fighting the cigarette addiction!
"I'm chewing the heck out of Nicorette"
Glad he is still fighting the cigarette addiction!
lol Why would anyone give a shit about MA. So solid blue that there is zero reason to report those numbers. Can't wait to vote on Tuesday for yes on question 420 everyday.
Manmademan
Member
eh...gonna have to stop you there.
It's widely acknowledged that the reason Wolf won was because Tom Corbett (his predecessor) was absolutely, totally, completely loathed by everyone on both sides of the aisle. His own party couldn't stand him, and he had no idea how to work to pass legislation.
There was inexplicably gridlock around things that should have flown through the legislature with republicans controlling everything, and to top things off he was linked closely to the penn state sandusky scandal, because he was Attorney General when that case was being prosecuted and fucked it up.
Penn State fans and alumni (and there are a LOT of these, especially in central PA) wanted to burn him at the stake.
If there's anything that gives positive feelings about the direction PA is heading it, it's the supreme court elections the year or so after that, not Wolf's gubernatorial campaign.
Michigan also elected Gary Peters (who is fine, but not like...a sensation or anything lol. He's super boring) in 2014 midterm, and while it was technically a Dem hold he was the only non-incumbent Dem elected to the senate that year. I don't even think offhand there were any non-incumbent Dem winners in the house either, though I'm not 100% on that.
Xamtheking
Member
It's all coming down gloriously
Cesare Borgia
Banned
MI is a dem machine state, where you have multiple large districts that churn out blue votes; Wayne (Detroit), Washtenaw (Ann Arbor), Genesee (Flint) etc. If those major districts turn out in the numbers they're capable of it becomes hard to impossible for republicans to win. So a democrat candidate or president visiting states like that during the lead up to an election is moreso a visit to fire up the machine and meet with the people who run it. Democrats have never had a candidate/president with more experience with urban community organizing than Obama, and he put that experience to work in both elections in states like Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, etc.
Got the Shakes
Member
We have absentee where you can walk into a city clerk office and fill your ballot out on the spot. You need an excuse to get an absentee ballot, but saying you won't be able to get to your polling place on Tuesday is one of those excuses. I voted that way 2 weeks ago and my clerk's office was packed with people doing the same. The votes don't get counted until Election Day though.
Also absentee voting by mail.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
NE-2 flipped blue in 2014 iirc
Genius.
HanShotFirst
Member
Tomorrow he will campaign in Hawaii and win it big leaves on election day.
I don't want to be under a shroud of self-imposed delusion like the Republicans in 2012. Early voting sounds good so far, but I'm worried by the independent and no-party affiliation percentages. I have no idea what way those people are going to break because my own observations lead me to believe that a lot of them are just Republicans that don't want the baggage associated with the Republican label. Yeah, it's anecdotal, but it's part of the reason I can't rest easy until this over.
newshinycd
Member
Trump is now using 538 as his pollster. See, Trump has a good brain.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
Ohio this weekend:
The sad thing about it is that Trump essentially has no ground game or surrogates, and still has high possibility of winning the state regardless of the all-star lineup Clinton has.
The GOP were completely ignoring standard polling and all metrics that said they are losing.
Thr GOP have no ground campaign this year and Hillary's is massive.
Stop comparing them.
Mighty Chin
Banned
Jeez the last few pages. Does GAF have a Suicide Watch?
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I'm aware of that, but that's nowhere near the main way people vote there. Technically Mississippi has early voting if you allow for excuse based ballots. That's not what anyone means when they talk about early voting.
HanShotFirst
Member
I'm holding out hope for 7-10 point win. Think its very plausible. I can't imagine Trump out performing McCain.
BotoxAgent
Member
Those are good reasons. I am there with you. We should def not get complacent, and I won't truly be at ease until the votes are counted on Tues.
Well, it already has one state wrong (NV)
538 got a lot of shit for their Trump coverage and they were actually wrong as well.
Stop holding a single source as the only good source. They were not the only group that got past elections right.
My gut tells me Nate is going to be humilated.
It's generally the same people that are prone to panic and a few newcomers that are scared by 538 or RCP averages.
The polls are good, if a bit tighter than desired and (excepting Iowa) there has been nothing but good news in Early Voting.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Republicans are older and wealthier, so they have more time to vote on election day iirc
She is not going to win in a landslide, but she is most likely going to do as well as obama did in 08 in terms of the popular vote which is good enough.
Manmademan
Member
the sad thing is that the democratic party needs to drag out all kinds of star power to inspire their base to vote.
All donald trump Jr. has to say is "if you don't go to the polls, minorities will end up getting free stuff".
DontBeThatGuy
Member
The primaries are irrelevant, so bringing that up in regards to Michigan seems a bit bed-wettery. (although I guess there's nothing wrong with not taking anything for granted)
User 463088
Banned
So, Trump is going to Minnesota. Stupid, right?
Jake Tapper
‏@jaketapper
Trump today says an internal poll shows him doing phenomenally in MN; Dem Senator @alfranken will join me live on @CNNSotu to discuss --
Trump no longer has internal polling. So, why would he say this?
Because of this.
MN high schools had a mock election. Trump won it. It was covered on Fox News.
So, he's running his campaign based off of mock elections covered by Fox News. Because, why not!
Jake Tapper
‏@jaketapper
Trump today says an internal poll shows him doing phenomenally in MN; Dem Senator @alfranken will join me live on @CNNSotu to discuss --
Trump no longer has internal polling. So, why would he say this?
Because of this.
MN high schools had a mock election. Trump won it. It was covered on Fox News.
So, he's running his campaign based off of mock elections covered by Fox News. Because, why not!
Bernie has been doing well and busting his ass for the campaign recently but that statement gave me a vivid reminder of one of the major reasons I didn't vote for him in the primary.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Take it in stride. Note the criticisms that people are making about it and read up on their defense of their model. It is but one model that predicts the election.
People panic too quickly. Wait for a trend before you panic. If Upshot and PEC are down at 65% along with 538 on Monday night, then you can start to panic.
People seem to fixate on one piece of information (whether good or bad) without finding a bunch of information, evaluating the info, and synthesizing it to get a big picture.
Oh my fucking god.
He realizes fucking Mondale even won Minnesota right?
Edit: Fuck me, could of sworn Mondale was from the Northeast.
It's fine to look at 538 but don't use it as your only source. Other prediction models have Hillary at a pretty healthy lead. Look at everything and then make your own decision from there.
538's odds have had Hillary at around 65% for like 3 or 4 days now so I'm not sure why you're freaking out about that now instead of earlier.
Manmademan
Member
Mondale was from minnesota, which is why he won that.
it's not some super liberal paradise.
newshinycd
Member
HAHAHAHA. Oh god. This is too fucking good.
metalslimer
Member
You know if people want to bedwet about fantasy scenarios where Trump wins Michigan wouldnt it be equally as likely Clinton takes Missouri and Indiana?
I hope some one asks Kellyanne about them not paying their pollster. Kellyanne personally called a few hundred people in MN.
I hope some one asks Kellyanne about them not paying their pollster. Kellyanne personally called a few hundred people in MN.
I mean, someone like Pence or Conway - who is a POLLSTER - would put a stop to hypothetical stupidity like that right?
Manmademan
Member
wait...that can't be right. none at all?
Ohio this weekend:
Justin Bartha will single-handedly deliver the state of Ohio to Hillary Clinton. He truly is a National Treasure.
Right, I know that. What I mean is, even accounting for that, do Republican votes generally outnumber Democrat votes on election day.
metalslimer
Member
You really think Conway is a true believer? Trump is a means to an end and at this point they all probably know what's going to happen.
They all are just not telling Trump what's going to happen. Jokes on them though. None of them are ever getting paid lol.
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