Thank you; seeing this stuff is making my heart flutter, especially in contrast against Team Trump dividing his squad of 23 GOTV volunteers.. 😂
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People nervous about Michigan need to take note of Adam's wisdom on this. It's not desperation that drives big dem names to Michigan on the night. It's the lack of early voting. They get the most return on their investment of time and effort ending the race there. It might be a little narrower than usual, but this is just solid strategy. It's not about panic. Y'all chill.
jack_package_200
Banned
Very likely.
In addition, for some context, Obama made 3 stops in WI in the last 5 days of his 2012 campaign despite that it had gone D since 1988. Sometimes campaigns have motives and aren't just freaking out.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/2012_election_speeches.php?candidate=44&doctype=1150
superdeluxe
Member
HanShotFirst
Member
TIGHTENING!
BotoxAgent
Member
Beautiful.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
The campaign. The media is dumb. Reading campaign tea leaves, Clinton team doesn't seem to be existentially worried about anything but concerned about Michigan margin.
Basileus777
Member
It's generally best not to read too deeply into campaign movement or ad buys in the last days of an election.
TheCochese
Banned
I'd put money on Nate Silver saying it.
I mean, they also are sending POTUS to NH. That's not a super long flight, might as well do the swing.
I do think the quality of polling in MI (plus the miss this year) is concerning so they'll move to shore it up. That they can't bank on outsized AA turnout is probably another. are there any latinos in Michigan lol
I do think the quality of polling in MI (plus the miss this year) is concerning so they'll move to shore it up. That they can't bank on outsized AA turnout is probably another. are there any latinos in Michigan lol
User 463088
Banned
Tightening means a lot of things depending on what your aims are. While the toplines may have tightened, it could also be they thought some of these seats were winnable, but now appear to be a bit on the margin. I don't doubt that it's closer than maybe a month ago, but I think reading too much into movement is silly.
There are a lot of reasons to go to somewhere like Michigan. I mean, I'd rather saw off my own arm but whatever.
...
Quiet, Bernie. >_>
Also, Obama going to Michigan is a good move because Michigan is all about dem cars.
20 point polling miss not relevant???
When they go low, we go high.
TestOfTide
Banned
Yeah I've been volunteering for a couple of months now.
I just wanted to brag about the fact that I made a new record for myself for most canvass packets completed in one day.
And I didn't even do it with a partner. Just me and my car.
If it weren't for the fact that it gets dark by 6:00, I might have tried to go for 5 packets.
For an open primary with no history versus a general election? No, it's not relevant.
To clarify. Michigan used to be a caucus. In 2008 they moved to a primary in which Obama did not compete. 2012 there was nothing.
2016 was an open primary with absolutely no relevant history of polling or demographics.
Yeah, they aren't taking any chances. They got Nevada lock up (I hope) and possible even Florida and NC, but they after what happened in the primary, they don't want to take any risk in Michigan.
Michigan also doesn't have any early voting, so it's important for them to take a swing there and get out the vote.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
There wasn't a competitve Dem primary in Michigan since 2004. There had been two general elections, however.
harriet the spy
Member
I very much agree with this - unfortunately. I work as a statistician (more or less), and while I don't agree with all the assumptions of the model (and tbh - I haven't evaluated the model in great depth, because that takes some time) - nothing jumps at me as being 'obviously wrong' with the assumptions he details about why his results are different. His model has always been more of a now-cast (like most polling models that don't account for the opinion dynamics), but I see good reasons to be *reasonably* worried.
Was there a polls post-mortem on her loss to Sanders in Michigan, given the polls were giving her to be a clear winner?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Just read that absentee voting is down in Detroit almost by 40℅.
You're taking about the same state that elected Scott Brown to fill Ted Kennedy's seat on the eve of passing the ACA.
User 463088
Banned
Actually, it's even worse than that. Michigan hasn't had a primary since 1992. It was a caucus in 2000 and 2004. It was a primary in 2008 that Obama didn't compete in.
So, ya, talking about the primary in relation to the GE is pointless.
Manmademan
Member
IIRC Michigan was a caucus in 2004, not a primary.
2008 Michigan got penalized for moving their primary date and their delegates were stripped. Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and Biden removed themselves from the ballot- Clinton didnt.
so on election day the only names on the ballot were Clinton, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel, and "Uncommitted."
As you can imagine, this massively skewed the results for the 2008 primary.
2012 wasn't contested, obama was the incumbent.
There simply WAS no valid data to use to determine who was likely to show up for the 2016 primary.
Roland_Gunner
Member
The best explanation I've seen is that it was lots of little things. Huge turnout from college kids and Arabic Americans for Sanders combined with Clinton voters being complacent and some even getting cute and voting for Trump in the GOP primary.
Yeah, this Wired article explains a lot about Michigan and the team that correctly predicted Hillary would lose to Bernie there and told the Obama campaign in 2012 exactly what to do there against Romney.
Basically, public polls had Michigan a lot closer than thought in 2012, but the data gurus (many who are now working with Clinton and Dem PACs after the primaries) told them not to panic or waste money on ads there.
Instead, in 2012, they told Obama and the campaign to just make a couple of final stops there days before the election and get out the vote. Michigan has crappy polling, and the Clinton campaign in the primaries got too confident and stop making a final push for it.
Is AV relevant when it comes with many conditions?
Aaron Strife
Banned
OH GOD WHAT IF WE LOSE CALIFORNIA
Randolph Freelander
Member
Speaking of...
Vox's Matt Yglesias keeps posting vitriolic reader emails on Twitter with the generic economic anxiety excuse as the caption. (Click through.)
"Some say misogyny plays a role in Clinton hate, but I see just another form of economic anxiety"
"There's a surprising amount of economic anxiety among law enforcement professionals"
"He thinks we shouldn't have done PNTR with China without a plan to build a more robust safety net"
"The "ps" makes this expression of economic anxiety especially odd"
tl;dr: "[expletive] [expletive] you, you [expletive] [expletive] jew [expletive] [expletive] moron." "This guy is clearly worried about outsourcing jobs to India."
PA is not leaning red anytime soon.
Oh C'mon Bernie >_<
Why is it that PoC who have had their wages hurt or are worried about their kids are avoiding Trump like he was the plague but White people who are "hurt economically" are flocking to him? This is even putting aside that there have been studies and surveys done showing that it isn't the poorest whites that are often voting Trump.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Our cities are literally falling apart. We're like a third world country. Detroit is the worst.
Same.
I understand that early voting looks really good, but I read an article (by Nate or one of the other people at 538) that early voting is not usually a very good an indicator of final results. Polling tends to be more a lot more accurate. One of the examples he used showed a 10% or maybe even 20% percent swing from early voting versus the actual final result.
This year might be different of course, and early voting does suggest a demographics change this time that could be very significant, but I'm not in the mood to count my chickens at all. Maybe Hillary is just a lot better at getting out the vote, and is focusing on early voting. Meanwhile Trump's people will just show up on election day in huge numbers because they're enthusiastic about voting for a maniac.
And overall, everything Nate's explained about his model makes perfect sense for me. Making adjustments for things like the number of undecideds and uncertainty seem like obvious tweaks. And if national polls are moving, it seems logical to assume state polls are moving as well.
Manmademan
Member
talking about race or racism as if it exists at ALL makes white americans extremely uncomfortable, and they will go out of their way to use tortured logic to avoid saying "oh yeah, those are racists."
"economic anxiety" is false, but its a fiction everyone wants to believe so they keep using it.
it's why the media always refers to the "working class" when they mean "uneducated white people who are probably racist."
@jbouie's been teeing off on this crap coming from the far left for months.
I remember getting some okay snacks in your airport, though!
Sanders is absolutely wrong about this, it is precisely what made him a bad candidate in the first place. People are flocking to trump on the basis of lies and a promise of a singular white America where foreign cultures are no longer acceptable.
None of his proposals make any economic sense and to make things worse, it would require decimating most federal environmental regulations.
I wish Sanders would know better. These people that trump attracts are not representative of what America is. They are more representative of Russia than the USA.
newshinycd
Member
Did some of you suddenly forget how calculated Hillary's campaign is?
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Michigan, like Wisconsin, hasn't made any real trends towards becoming a swing state and I'm not sure why people think its inevitable that they'll become red in the future.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I mean this was Sanders' mo during the campaign, and probably my most fundamental disagreement with him.
You can't go around claiming you're the hero of minorities and #blm and such because you marched with King but then argue that winning white support is what's important and the only reason they aren't Democrats is that they're pissed about the economy.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have had terrible track records in recent midterms even though they're all fairly secure at the presidential level.
Notice that Wolf won decisively in PA in a terrible year for Democrats and suddenly most of the concern about PA is gone. You have to go back six years to find a bad result there.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Good Lord, I'm about to put someone on ignore for the first time.
Michigan doesn't have early voting!!
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