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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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M

Manmademan

Member
Oblivion said:
Right, I know that. What I mean is, even accounting for that, do Republican votes generally outnumber Democrat votes on election day.
Click to expand...

no. democrats typically win the popular vote. this was true in 2000, 2008, and 2012. I'm pretty sure the democrats even had a greater popular vote margin than republicans in the 2014 midterms, but lost seats due to gerrymandering.

edit: oh, you meant election day specifically. honestly I'm not sure but I would still say "probably", since usually the vast majority of early votes were absentee (which older voters use) and most people (about 80%) voted on election day, not before.
 
G

greatgeek

Banned
Crocodile said:
I mean, someone like Pence or Conway - who is a POLLSTER - would put a stop to hypothetical stupidity like that right?
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Really, all you have to do is read the breakdown of the student poll. 5% of parents won't vote for the Legal Marijuana Now candidate, nor will 10% vote for Deez Nutz or any other write-in. But Trump can't read, so he's going to Minnesota.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
adam387 said:
So, Trump is going to Minnesota. Stupid, right?

Jake Tapper
‏@jaketapper
Trump today says an internal poll shows him doing “phenomenally” in MN; Dem Senator @alfranken will join me live on @CNNSotu to discuss --

Trump no longer has internal polling. So, why would he say this?

Because of this.

MN high schools had a mock election. Trump won it. It was covered on Fox News.

So, he's running his campaign based off of mock elections covered by Fox News. Because, why not!
Click to expand...

Adam is that real or is that you putting 2 and 2 together. Because holy shit if true his campaign is a damn mess. I mean that's not shock, but that means people like Conway aren't even trying anymore.
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
adam387 said:
So, Trump is going to Minnesota. Stupid, right?

Jake Tapper
‏@jaketapper
Trump today says an internal poll shows him doing “phenomenally” in MN; Dem Senator @alfranken will join me live on @CNNSotu to discuss --

Trump no longer has internal polling. So, why would he say this?

Because of this.

MN high schools had a mock election. Trump won it. It was covered on Fox News.

So, he's running his campaign based off of mock elections covered by Fox News. Because, why not!
Click to expand...

I love this.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Jombie said:
My gut is telling me that Clinton wins but won't be a landslide. With all the shit 538 is getting, it will probably be the poll that's looked back on as being the most accurate. With that said, I can't even look at it anymore.
Click to expand...

Don't know how you can say this when we already have hard numbers on voters already. Hispanic turnout is way way up, and that is going to be the big problem for these models. Too many polls done in NV, FL, and elsewhere that weren't also done in Spanish. Given the early number looks like this is going to be the big problem with these polls.
 
T

thebloo

Member
Boke1879 said:
Adam is that real or is that you putting 2 and 2 together. Because holy shit if true his campaign is a damn mess. I mean that's not shock, but that means people like Conway aren't even trying anymore.
Click to expand...

Marc Caputo, a Florida pollster for Politico, stated that the Trump campaign has no internal polling as they have refused to pay their polling company and they owe that company over $800,000 dollars.

I saw the news earlier too. Can't find a decent source though.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Crocodile said:
I mean, someone like Pence or Conway - who is a POLLSTER - would put a stop to hypothetical stupidity like that right?
Click to expand...
I don't mean to be rude, but Kellyanne is not a campaign manager. She's the press secretary. I doubt she has control over anything. Trump just does what he wants.
Manmademan said:
wait...that can't be right. none at all?
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Correct. He stopped paying his pollster a while ago, and they have no more internals. I don't think they had a lot of them tbh. They said their "internals" showed them in a 2 point race in Virginia. That's insane, and the same day they said it was the day a landline only robopoll showed it a 2 point race (which previously had Trump winning the last time they released it)
Boke1879 said:
Adam is that real or is that you putting 2 and 2 together. Because holy shit if true his campaign is a damn mess. I mean that's not shock, but that means people like Conway aren't even trying anymore.
Click to expand...
It's putting 2 and 2 together based off previous behavior, such as the Virginia poll they claimed to have. They do this frequently, because they're all cray.
 
S

SexyFish

Banned
M

Manmademan

Member
adam387 said:
Correct. He stopped paying his pollster a while ago, and they have no more internals. I don't think they had a lot of them tbh. They said their "internals" showed them in a 2 point race in Virginia. That's insane, and the same day they said it was the day a landline only robopoll showed it a 2 point race (which previously had Trump winning the last time they released it)
Click to expand...

Jesus christ this campaign is a complete disaster. they really are flying completely blind.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Boke1879 said:
Adam is that real or is that you putting 2 and 2 together. Because holy shit if true his campaign is a damn mess. I mean that's not shock, but that means people like Conway aren't even trying anymore.
Click to expand...
Trump uses online polling so is not hard to imagine at all lol.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Manmademan said:
eh...gonna have to stop you there.

It's widely acknowledged that the reason Wolf won was because Tom Corbett (his predecessor) was absolutely, totally, completely loathed by everyone on both sides of the aisle. His own party couldn't stand him, and he had no idea how to work to pass legislation.

There was inexplicably gridlock around things that should have flown through the legislature with republicans controlling everything, and to top things off he was linked closely to the penn state sandusky scandal, because he was Attorney General when that case was being prosecuted and fucked it up.

Penn State fans and alumni (and there are a LOT of these, especially in central PA) wanted to burn him at the stake.

If there's anything that gives positive feelings about the direction PA is heading it, it's the supreme court elections the year or so after that, not Wolf's gubernatorial campaign.
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Oh I know why Wolf won, I just think most people take a superficial view of things.

Walker and Snyder won the most recent election = tossups. Wolf won the most recent election = lean D. My mom said the other day she thought Wisconsin was a hard R state and she was confused as to why Trump would be campaigning there because they keep electing that buffoon Walker.

Wasn't there some guy in here a while back trying to tell us Maryland and Illinois were swing states because they elected GOP governors? Here that's mocked and laughed at because we're all nerds with an unhealthy obsession with this stuff but I think most people look for any reason to justify calling D+20-ass states tossups.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Oh I know he wasn't paying the pollster, but I'll literally shit myself with laughter if he's visiting based on a high school mock poll.
 
T

Tommy DJ

Member
At least there's some karmic justice in the world if Trump is finally going to get done for not paying people what they're owed.
 
I

Ithil

Member
adam387 said:
I don't mean to be rude, but Kellyanne is not a campaign manager. She's the press secretary. I doubt she has control over anything. Trump just does what he wants.

Correct. He stopped paying his pollster a while ago, and they have no more internals. I don't think they had a lot of them tbh. They said their "internals" showed them in a 2 point race in Virginia. That's insane, and the same day they said it was the day a landline only robopoll showed it a 2 point race (which previously had Trump winning the last time they released it)

It's putting 2 and 2 together based off previous behavior, such as the Virginia poll they claimed to have. They do this frequently, because they're all cray.
Click to expand...

Never mind that Trump is such a liar that you can't take anything he says about polls seriously anyway.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
A few days ago, the beautiful and talented Kellyanne Conway said that their internals in PA showed it a 4 point race, with them losing. That was a few minutes after 2 polls dropped showing it a 4 point race.

Your internal polls typically paint a rosy picture for you. So the fact that she gave numbers like that is stupid. Unless, of course, she knows the only way you can give Trump information is if he sees it on the news. Which is true.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Diablos said:
Upshot has Dems at 54% chance of taking the Senate. Ughhhh
Click to expand...

Yeah the senate seems to really be moving away from the Dems. Right now Kander or Ross have to win for us just to hit 50. I'm hoping that some of the recent polls were moved by the Comey letter and it swing back by Tuesday.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Manmademan said:
Mondale was from minnesota, which is why he won that.

it's not some super liberal paradise.
Click to expand...
This true, but it was also a Carter state in 80 and a Dukakis state in 88 and unlike Wisconsin and Michigan it didn't really get hit by the midterm waves except for some state legislature seats. It's not California or anything but it's pretty damn blue.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Tommy DJ said:
At least there's some karmic justice in the world if Trump is finally going to get done for not paying people what they're owed.
Click to expand...
Almost seems like we might get to see several karmic boomerangs return to smack him in the ass. People he's wronged, groups he's demonized, easy strategic decisions he's flubbed, victims of his greed, etc..
 
M

Manmademan

Member
wumster3000 said:
Somewhat good read from Nate:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...d-heres-where-we-stand/?addata=espn:frontpage

TBH, I'm genuinely surprised that Clinton can't match Obama's voters. That guy is just magnificent.
Click to expand...

she's comfortably ahead of where obama was in 2012, even if we only look at polls.

she's not where obama was in 2008 (in polling), but that was a record breaking year for democratic participation.

it's possible that unlikely and first time voters end up having her hit that mark though. we'll have to wait to see where numbers are on tuesday.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
adam387 said:
A few days ago, the beautiful and talented Kellyanne Conway said that their internals in PA showed it a 4 point race, with them losing. That was a few minutes after 2 polls dropped showing it a 4 point race.

Your internal polls typically paint a rosy picture for you. So the fact that she gave numbers like that is stupid. Unless, of course, she knows the only way you can give Trump information is if he sees it on the news. Which is true.
Click to expand...

Lol, anybody check her on TV to see if she's blinking any messages? She could be a captive right now
 
X

Xamtheking

Member
What if this was all just setup for TrumpTV
What if he actually planned to lose so he knew he'd be able to generate profit through his supporters
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Xamtheking said:
What if this was all just setup for TrumpTV
What if he actually planned to lose so he knew he'd be able to generate profit through his supporters
Click to expand...

there is a LOT of evidence that Trump's core business and his "brand" have been absolutely devastated by this run- as well as the flood lawsuits that seem to be popping up for fraud and rape thanks to his higher profile.

if this was some kind of con, it's a really stupid one.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
CwhjKoNWgAE4Ie1.jpg
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Manmademan said:
no. democrats typically win the popular vote. this was true in 2000, 2008, and 2012. I'm pretty sure the democrats even had a greater popular vote margin than republicans in the 2014 midterms, but lost seats due to gerrymandering.

edit: oh, you meant election day specifically. honestly I'm not sure but I would still say "probably", since usually the vast majority of early votes were absentee (which older voters use) and most people (about 80%) voted on election day, not before.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's what I was referring to.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Yeah the senate seems to really be moving away from the Dems. Right now Kander or Ross have to win for us just to hit 50. I'm hoping that some of the recent polls were moved by the Comey letter and it swing back by Tuesday.
Click to expand...

I feel good about Ross. Not sure about Kander. Manmade has sold me on Rubio losing because the pollsters didn't catch a bunch of Puerto Rican and black folks - the demos on the early voting in FL make me feel like that might be the biggest polling miss of the election.

Then what do we have? Cortez Masto and McGinty are probably going to win. Kirkpatrick is going to lose. Bayh is probably going to lose. Who else am I forgetting?

EDIT: Oh, Hassan. Yeah, she's winning. That Ayotte flier where she tries to attract people who are interested in seeing Chelsea Clinton speak with promises of student loan reform is the canary in the coal mine.
 
X

Xamtheking

Member
Makai said:
The opportunity cost of running for president is really big
Click to expand...
Maybe he was out of other options

Manmademan said:
there is a LOT of evidence that Trump's core business and his "brand" have been absolutely devastated by this run- as well as the flood lawsuits that seem to be popping up for fraud and rape thanks to his higher profile.

if this was some kind of con, it's a really stupid one.
Click to expand...
But this run has also generated a lot of money for him and TrumpTV might allow him enough cash to settle the lawsuits

Ithil said:
You give him a little too much credit.
Click to expand...
Probably not him only but a collection of people on his team who are all smarter than him
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
thebloo said:
votes-cast-early.png


Of course EV used to not be very relevant for the final results. But it's becoming.
Click to expand...

That's nationwide too, meaning it includes some states with no real early voting options at all.

Swing states with a high share of votes cast early in 2012:

Colorado 77%
Florida 52%
Georgia 48%
Iowa 43%
Nevada 72%
North Carolina 63%
 
D

Diablos

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Yeah the senate seems to really be moving away from the Dems. Right now Kander or Ross have to win for us just to hit 50. I'm hoping that some of the recent polls were moved by the Comey letter and it swing back by Tuesday.
Click to expand...
Ross for the upset. Maybe Bayh will recover too. Hassan might benefit from the huge GOTV effort in NH
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Voysa Reezun said:
I feel good about Ross. Not sure about Kander. Manmade has sold me on Rubio losing because the pollsters didn't catch a bunch of Puerto Rican and black folks - the demos on the early voting in FL make me feel like that might be the biggest polling miss of the election.

Then what do we have? Cortez Masto and McGinty are probably going to win. Kirkpatrick is going to lose. Bayh is probably going to lose. Who else am I forgetting?
Click to expand...

How the hell is Bayh losing? He was leading by double digits when he got in!
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Xamtheking said:
Maybe he was out of other options


But this run has also generated a lot of money for him and TrumpTV might allow him enough cash to settle the lawsuits


Probably not him only but a collection of people on his team who are all smarter than him
Click to expand...

it really hasn't. Trump's company is private, but industry analysts have business at his core properties falling by as much as 30%.

This is not a small thing.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Oblivion said:
How the hell is Bayh losing? He was leading by double digits when he got in!
Click to expand...

Effective ad campaign showing that Bayh didn't live in Indiana and became a lobbyist in Washington during the financial crisis.
 
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