GODDAMN IT.
He was supposed to be one of the surefire pick ups. Is there any path to taking back the senate without him?
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GODDAMN IT.
He was supposed to be one of the surefire pick ups. Is there any path to taking back the senate without him?
Manmademan
Member
I can't see how he wins. Tuesday is going to be glorious.
Roland_Gunner
Member
EDIT: This is all wrong. Dems need 4 not 5 seats so they can take the senate with Feingold, Hassan, and McGinty holding on.
Here's how I see it:
Hold - Cortez Masto
Win - Hassan, Feingold, McGinty, Duckworth
That's 49 so one of Kander, Ross, or Bayh needs to win for 50.
He has an ego the size of Uranus.
"Made in China" being so prominent on the shirt almost seems like it's meant to be satire. This is like outsourcing someone to cut off your nose to spite your face.
Hold NV, gain WI, IL, PA, NH. But NH looking uncertain now. So hopefully NC and/or MO can save us. Otherwise I think we fall short by 1. Thanks Comey.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Yep. Cortes Masto, Feingold, Duckworth, Hassan, Ross, McGinty gets us to 51.
Kander and Murphy are legit possibilities as well. I think 53 is our ceiling.
Yep, except I am bullish on Murphy getting dragged to victory by Hillary's GOTV.
That's 50.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Look at the hat though
Look at his hat.
Xamtheking
Member
But why now? It's not like his ego appeared suddenly overnight
He isn't in a Trump supporter.
Roland_Gunner
Member
So it is. I've been thinking the Dems need 5 not 4 for weeks lol.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Random thought:
Kander is cool and I hope he wins, but who names their kid True? That's weird af
Kander is cool and I hope he wins, but who names their kid True? That's weird af
BreezyLimbo
Banned
I knew a guy named Chance.
It's confusing at first because they're only defending 1 seat that's potentially vulnerable (which it's not now) so you can get the numbers wrong
He's been toying with it since the 90s. It took a while for the social conditions to be right.
Xamtheking
Member
I dunno
I think white racist Americans have been around for a while
And if his team had the capacity to determine when the right time to strike was, shouldn't they also not have run this campaign into the ground?
streetsahead123
Banned
Can you imagine the crow eating that will happen in this thread if Nate's model is spot-on?
Like, I don't think it'll actually happen. But what if, after pages and pages and pages of just endlessly shitting on his model, what if he just absolutely nails the electoral and popular vote shares?
But if the model is wrong, he'll just say "The model's only as good as the polls that go into it"
Like, I don't think it'll actually happen. But what if, after pages and pages and pages of just endlessly shitting on his model, what if he just absolutely nails the electoral and popular vote shares?
But if the model is wrong, he'll just say "The model's only as good as the polls that go into it"
I don't think there should be any crow eating if the model is spot on. I mean it's possible. Most people have issue with him in how he handles himself and any criticism towards his model. Even other people with 538 have their doubts, but they have to go along with it because, well that's the model. I personally don't have any issues with it.
metalslimer
Member
Dems will get 50 imo but that scares the shit out of me for the Kaine senate replacement of things don't go too well year 1 for Clinton.
Not to mention he has to then run again in 2018. Ginsburg will probably retire in 2018 so we need to stay blue for at least 2 years.
Not to mention he has to then run again in 2018. Ginsburg will probably retire in 2018 so we need to stay blue for at least 2 years.
brianmcdoogle
Member
The final prediction does not factor into the many issues people have with his model and punditry . Thinking that only the final outcome matters kind of misses what a lot of us and other forecasters have been complaining about from Silver the past year. That's as useful as insinuating that people only liked Silver's model when it showed a big lead for Clinton. It's not what a lot of us have been complaining about, and it gives an easy deflection to his and his model's flaws and shortcomings.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
It is close in polling, but Ayotte's appeal to Democratic voters makes me think that her campaign is feeling really nervous. It reminds me of Linda McMahon's fliers that tried to tie her to President Obama - or Darrell Issa's flyers that tried to do the same thing this year.
True Candor? Heh.
Manmademan
Member
Trump was considering a run in 2012, if "game change" is to be believed- informal polls had republicans favorable to the idea of a Trump run.
He declined to do so, because that would have meant having to leave "the apprentice" and Trump wasn't willing to do that at the peak of that show's popularity. He ended up a Romney surrogate instead.
Ya know, I saw it and couldn't decide if it was just a cheap knockoff he'd picked or it was part of the joke. You should never mistake ignorance for malice; I guess the same applies to mistaking it for satire as well. =)
Nate's model wont be right or wrong. He is hedging his bet. Having it at 50/50 or 60/40 is not the same as outright saying that one side will win. What makes it worse is Nate's punditry which makes is seem like it is actually 90/10 in favor of trump.
RustyNails
Member
Still on a blowout 8-10 point win.
streetsahead123
Banned
Right, but the final outcome is based entirely on the model. His final predictions are just whatever the model says monday night.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
@ChrisMegerian
How important is early voting in Florida? And how well is Clinton doing there? She's not planning to return before election day.
How important is early voting in Florida? And how well is Clinton doing there? She's not planning to return before election day.
Roland_Gunner
Member
One plus is that the GOP bench in Virginia terrible. Its why you've got those rumors about them running Fiorina. The only person they've got who could appeal to moderates is Barbara Comstock and there's a good chance she's going to lose on Tuesday. Well there's also Bill Bolling but good luck getting him through a GOP primary.
streetsahead123
Banned
There are a lot more numbers in the model than the overall win percentage though. The model projects overall electoral votes, overall popular vote share, and the popular vote share in each state. If like 90% of those numbers are right on the money, the model was undeniably better than we're all giving it credit for.
His punditry is 100% just him covering his ass in case she loses though.
Manmademan
Member
I'm thinking that uptick in the white vote in many states just MIGHT NOT be a good thing for Trump if it's white women motivated to come out and vote against him- not FOR him.
Valdfellgar
Banned
So, mostly a lurker, and I tend at this point to stick to like Gundam OT and AnimeGaf, but I just had to post my extremely upsetting experience today. My family is very democratic, pro Hillary, my mother sometimes to the point of 'concern' (Hillary bobblehead, Action figure, Trump voodoo doll) but our views all generally align.
Today I went in for a haircut, to my usual hair dresser who's been pretty much cutting my hair all my life, since I was just a child. I bring up how enthralled by family is with the election, how we're all kind of sick of it, want it to be over. And my hairdresser, she agrees, because she's just waiting for the rigged election to be over and Hillary to win from swapping out all the early votes for fake pro Hillary ballots.
Man was it hugely upsetting seeing her defend Trump, spout misinformed lies about Hillary planting people in Trump's audience to attack protesters, paying off the pornstar to slander Trump's name. People focusing on Trump's racist allegations from 43 years ago, but it's okay to hit Hillary for defending Bill over decades ago because....? It was maddening to see someone I'd known all my life just stand up and completely defend Trump, in full support, uninterested in the effects a presidency of his might have, because it wouldn't directly affect her at the end of the day.
I guess I don't know why I'm posting this really, I don't participate in this community really, but I had to vent because I live in progressive enough a community, and keep to myself enough that I've never been confronted with someone so willing to ignore and sweep under the rug everything wrong with Trump. (Closest it's been for me if my best friend being a staunchly "never hillary" voter and considering Gary Johnson after Bernie lost. I haven't asked him where he sits now for fear of the answer I'd get.)
Ugh, I just want Hillary to win Nov 8th and be done with all this. Then again, it wouldn't matter for this situation. I'm so soured by this knowledge I don't think I'll ever be going back there again. I hate what Trump has brought to the surface in this country, I hate that it's even existed in people I've known all my life.
Today I went in for a haircut, to my usual hair dresser who's been pretty much cutting my hair all my life, since I was just a child. I bring up how enthralled by family is with the election, how we're all kind of sick of it, want it to be over. And my hairdresser, she agrees, because she's just waiting for the rigged election to be over and Hillary to win from swapping out all the early votes for fake pro Hillary ballots.
Man was it hugely upsetting seeing her defend Trump, spout misinformed lies about Hillary planting people in Trump's audience to attack protesters, paying off the pornstar to slander Trump's name. People focusing on Trump's racist allegations from 43 years ago, but it's okay to hit Hillary for defending Bill over decades ago because....? It was maddening to see someone I'd known all my life just stand up and completely defend Trump, in full support, uninterested in the effects a presidency of his might have, because it wouldn't directly affect her at the end of the day.
I guess I don't know why I'm posting this really, I don't participate in this community really, but I had to vent because I live in progressive enough a community, and keep to myself enough that I've never been confronted with someone so willing to ignore and sweep under the rug everything wrong with Trump. (Closest it's been for me if my best friend being a staunchly "never hillary" voter and considering Gary Johnson after Bernie lost. I haven't asked him where he sits now for fear of the answer I'd get.)
Ugh, I just want Hillary to win Nov 8th and be done with all this. Then again, it wouldn't matter for this situation. I'm so soured by this knowledge I don't think I'll ever be going back there again. I hate what Trump has brought to the surface in this country, I hate that it's even existed in people I've known all my life.
User 463088
Banned
: puts on my Rachel Maddow costume :
So, let's talk about Duval County, Florida. In 2004, Bush won it by 16 points. Sixteen points. That's a lot. He of course, carried the state and the election. In 2008, John McCain carried the county by just about two points. So, a tight race, but you know, better for the Democrats. In 2012, Romney carried Duval by by 3.5%. So, ya, trending away from us.
This county isn't great for us demographically. There's a high African American population, and we have a slight party registration advantage (because Dixicrats) but there are almost no Latino voters (something like 4%). Our goal was to keep the margin down in Duval during early voting.
We won it.
So, let's talk about Duval County, Florida. In 2004, Bush won it by 16 points. Sixteen points. That's a lot. He of course, carried the state and the election. In 2008, John McCain carried the county by just about two points. So, a tight race, but you know, better for the Democrats. In 2012, Romney carried Duval by by 3.5%. So, ya, trending away from us.
This county isn't great for us demographically. There's a high African American population, and we have a slight party registration advantage (because Dixicrats) but there are almost no Latino voters (something like 4%). Our goal was to keep the margin down in Duval during early voting.
We won it.
Think about how birtherism rose his political prominence though. He didn't have the appeal or the legitimacy before that. He needed the post-Obama backlash.
And, he can be adept at capturing the deplorable voters while also being bad at appealing to the general electorate and while being hopeless at running a general campaign. These don't need to be mutually exclusive.
brianmcdoogle
Member
If I'm on an airplane trip, and the plane left on time, and during the flight the pilot got drunk and did barrel rolls the entire time, but got me to my final destination on time, is that all that matters... that my flight left and arrived on time and I didn't die? Or can I judge the flight on other things?
So far Hillary is going to hit Michigan and end in Philly on Monday.
Is she going anywhere in Tuesday? I remember it was a big deal that Romney campaigned Election Day.
streetsahead123
Banned
Yeah, but early voting skews towards democrats
balladofwindfishes
Member
Is there a point in going to a state after the majority of the state has already voted?
Uptick in turnout + no major uptick in registration for white people spells doom.
Also, yes! Duval!
Manmademan
Member
Sadly, those duval democrats are all going to split their tickets for Rubio.
metalslimer
Member
I think we all understand. This election has ruined so many friendships and family relations for so many people. I think it finally broke the illusion that many people had (or many liberals had) that we are all generally good people with differing ideas.
streetsahead123
Banned
If the final numbers are spot on, that implies his model was accurate all along though, providing that it didn't undergo any major methodology change.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Good thing Schale's estimating that about 70% of the eligible voters will have already voted in Florida by election day, then!
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