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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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U

User 463088

Banned
streetsahead123 said:
Yeah, but early voting skews towards democrats
Click to expand...
Not always in Duval.

And, again, we'll lose it on election day. However, the data we have tells us that the GOP voters who have come out are the far more likely voters. We've been turning out our unlikely voters in early voting. This is good for us because we're doing what we need to do. The GOP is running out of people to turn out. They need their unlikely voters to turn out, and with a terrible ground game, they're possibly fucked.

If Daddy Mook is right, and we're sitting at a 171k vote lead....we good. Obama entered election day in 2012 with a 85k vote lead and won the state by 75k
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
adam387 said:
: puts on my Rachel Maddow costume :

So, let's talk about Duval County, Florida. In 2004, Bush won it by 16 points. Sixteen points. That's a lot. He of course, carried the state and the election. In 2008, John McCain carried the county by just about two points. So, a tight race, but you know, better for the Democrats. In 2012, Romney carried Duval by by 3.5%. So, ya, trending away from us.

This county isn't great for us demographically. There's a high African American population, and we have a slight party registration advantage (because Dixicrats) but there are almost no Latino voters (something like 4%). Our goal was to keep the margin down in Duval during early voting.



We won it.
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Amazing. Florida would pretty much seal the deal for Hillary, no?
 
M

Manmademan

Member
adam387 said:
Not always in Duval.

And, again, we'll lose it on election day. However, the data we have tells us that the GOP voters who have come out are the far more likely voters. We've been turning out our unlikely voters in early voting. This is good for us because we're doing what we need to do. The GOP is running out of people to turn out. They need their unlikely voters to turn out, and with a terrible ground game, they're possibly fucked.

If Daddy Mook is right, and we're sitting at a 171k vote lead....we good. Obama entered election day in 2012 with a 85k vote lead and won the state by 75k
Click to expand...

don't forget we have an extra day of early voting vs. 2012 as well. No sunday voting before election day in 2012!
 
V

Valdfellgar

Banned
metalslimer said:
I think we all understand. This election has ruined so many friendships and family relations for so many people. I think it finally broke the illusion that many people had (or many liberals had) that we are all generally good people with differing ideas.
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Thanks. I suppose I'm 'glad" i'm not the only one who's experienced this. Really shocked me though. I'm in MA, and she's always been kind, supportive, friendly-- I guess beneath all that she's more concerned with party allegiance and willing to forgive anything and everything in the name of a Republican President.

Oh and this was a gem "Yes, Trump blathers on and says all kinds of awful things, but that's how you know he doesn't lie. Because people who talk and talk and bluster can't possibly be liars. Not like Hillary who's so composed, so secretive she must be hiding something."
 
N

nature boy

Member
Liam Stack ‏@liamstack 42m42 minutes ago
GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham "Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.”
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Dammmnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

(not saying I agree with him)
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
streetsahead123 said:
Can you imagine the crow eating that will happen in this thread if Nate's model is spot-on?

Like, I don't think it'll actually happen. But what if, after pages and pages and pages of just endlessly shitting on his model, what if he just absolutely nails the electoral and popular vote shares?

But if the model is wrong, he'll just say "The model's only as good as the polls that go into it"
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I mean, the model being right would be all well and good, but it wouldn't make Nate not a twat.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Touchdown said:
Have all the polls been unskewed yet?
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That gif probably won't be there by the time I finish this post but

zqVBn9I.gif


:p

What a weird gif to post here LOL. At least link it rather than post it in the open and even then............it seems a bit much?
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
adam387 said:
: puts on my Rachel Maddow costume :

So, let's talk about Duval County, Florida. In 2004, Bush won it by 16 points. Sixteen points. That's a lot. He of course, carried the state and the election. In 2008, John McCain carried the county by just about two points. So, a tight race, but you know, better for the Democrats. In 2012, Romney carried Duval by by 3.5%. So, ya, trending away from us.

This county isn't great for us demographically. There's a high African American population, and we have a slight party registration advantage (because Dixicrats) but there are almost no Latino voters (something like 4%). Our goal was to keep the margin down in Duval during early voting.



We won it.
Click to expand...

That's one razor thing margin, but hey, a win's a win.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Bam Bam Baklava said:
In fairness, Silver was right in 2014 and everyone who predicted Dems outperforming their polls here was wrong.
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Drew Linzer was betta!

Too bad he is doing it for DK now because DK taints it.

This thread got decidedly darker since I went to dinner. No good polls even happened today really. Except Muhlenberg.
 
N

nature boy

Member
CBS/YouGov

Actually another OH poll is coming from an Ohio newspaper, can't remember the name but it's considered "gold standard".

Edit: Columbus Dispatch
 
K

kcp12304

Banned
Question: Will there be a major round of polls from reputable pollsters released Sun + Mon or is this mostly it from them? There doesn't seem to be many released today.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Valdfellgar said:
So, mostly a lurker, and I tend at this point to stick to like Gundam OT and AnimeGaf, but I just had to post my extremely upsetting experience today. My family is very democratic, pro Hillary, my mother sometimes to the point of 'concern' (Hillary bobblehead, Action figure, Trump voodoo doll) but our views all generally align.

Today I went in for a haircut, to my usual hair dresser who's been pretty much cutting my hair all my life, since I was just a child. I bring up how enthralled by family is with the election, how we're all kind of sick of it, want it to be over. And my hairdresser, she agrees, because she's just waiting for the rigged election to be over and Hillary to win from swapping out all the early votes for fake pro Hillary ballots.

Man was it hugely upsetting seeing her defend Trump, spout misinformed lies about Hillary planting people in Trump's audience to attack protesters, paying off the pornstar to slander Trump's name. People focusing on Trump's racist allegations from 43 years ago, but it's okay to hit Hillary for defending Bill over decades ago because....? It was maddening to see someone I'd known all my life just stand up and completely defend Trump, in full support, uninterested in the effects a presidency of his might have, because it wouldn't directly affect her at the end of the day.

I guess I don't know why I'm posting this really, I don't participate in this community really, but I had to vent because I live in progressive enough a community, and keep to myself enough that I've never been confronted with someone so willing to ignore and sweep under the rug everything wrong with Trump. (Closest it's been for me if my best friend being a staunchly "never hillary" voter and considering Gary Johnson after Bernie lost. I haven't asked him where he sits now for fear of the answer I'd get.)

Ugh, I just want Hillary to win Nov 8th and be done with all this. Then again, it wouldn't matter for this situation. I'm so soured by this knowledge I don't think I'll ever be going back there again. I hate what Trump has brought to the surface in this country, I hate that it's even existed in people I've known all my life.
Click to expand...

Yeah, don't worry, you're not alone. I know several people who I would never think would be Republicans in a million years (like one of my old film professors, who happens to be gay). In fact, I had to stop seeing one of my closest friends, someone I knew all the way back in high school cause of this shit.

Baron von Loathsome said:
Fine, I'll play along.

giphy.gif
Click to expand...

Did someone attach webbed feet to those birds?
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
kcp12304 said:
Question: Will there be a major round of polls from reputable pollsters released Sun + Mon or is this mostly it from them? There doesn't seem to be many released today.
Click to expand...
There will be national polls from CNN/ORC, NBC/WSJ, Qpac and Monmouth for sure. Though I don't know how much value they are right now.
 
T

thebloo

Member
nature boy said:
CBS/YouGov

Actually another OH poll is coming from an Ohio newspaper, can't remember the name but it's considered "gold standard".

Edit: Columbus Dispatch
Click to expand...

CBS/YouGov Ohio October poll: C +4
CBS/YouGov Florida October poll: C +3

If these hold, it would be perfect.
 
B

Barzul

Member
What are the states that only have Election Day voting? I saw on the last week tonight video there are 13, sounds like way too many. I know Pennsylvania and Michigan are two of them. Mississippi too I think.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
Manmademan said:
In all fairness, silver was off his rocker during the primaries and everyone here who said he needed to dial it down was right.
Click to expand...

Silver ignored the polls in order to argue that Trump was going to lose, and now he's ignoring stuff like early voting totals and demos to argue that the race is closer than it probably is.

That's why his huffy "I only deal in facts" tweetstorm was so laughable.

I think that whiffing on the PM elections in the UK sort of shook him, and Trump winning the GOP nomination finished him off.
 
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