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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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C

Carpe Carnim

Member
UraMallas said:
I agree that the dems shouldn't pander to the racists uneducated white people in IA. As an Iowan, I obviously have a vested interest in seeing it succeed for me and my family's sake. I guess that's what the Senate if for - to make sure there is a body that is equally representing us. Problem being, we have to idiot senators since Harkin left.



1.25 Hillary is about to fucking roll.
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Rural Whites seem to want Democrats policies, with Conservative social values. They figure they'll keep the GOP as a vehicle and try to push out the Chamber of Commerce types who hate social safety nets. It won't work, of course, because the ethnic grievance wing of the modern Conservative movement wins by leveraging the "Welfare Queens and Filthy Immigrants are stealin' our EBT monies" narrative

A lot of it boils down to a sense they've lost respect from the wider culture. Being White no longer assures, by itself, a good job for life and a role as a pillar within their communities. They're being buffeted by a globalized economy that is creating middle classes in societies they've spent their whole lives looking down upon (China, India, etc.) while they look around to see drug abuse, failing institutions, and media stars that are somewhat hostile to their perception of what "America should be".
 
U

UraMallas

Member
Y2Kev said:
Governor of VA is a D and will appoint a D. We will have one year.

We need to nuke the Philadelphia buster and get RBG to retire.
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I know we'll have a year. I have no faith they won't try to stall for a year. I'm ignorant to if that is actually possible, but it's something I don't doubt they'll try to do. I don't believe they'll hold the SCOTUS hostage 2 years because they might actually get fucked in midterms by doing that.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
CJ Werleman
@cjwerleman
Summary: So, the crowd who love open carry laws, and guns, guns, guns..... shit themselves over a non existent gun

Marc Ambinder @marcambinder
A Homeland Security official confirms the @ABC report: no gun found, crowd panicked as a guy tried to raise a sign; someone shouted "gun."
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The irony.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Trump's social media guy retweeted this. I hope he got paid in advance

IMG_20161105_222939.jpg
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
I dunno, it's hard to be optimistic when I'm so used to the notion that things get way worse before they get better.

I still can't get over how the avg slid so much but it does bring some hope that there's record turnout of people who are hopefully in unison against Trump.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
So I checked my facebook timeline in 2012 and apparently I was a raging republican who was pissed that obama won, blocked people celebrating, and posted things like "I'm tired of everyone on this facebook being flaming liberals". Now I'm the complete opposite.

I dont even remember any of that honestly. I guess back then the only political influences I had were fox news and my parents, and now I'm in college and view GAF all the time. So it makes sense why I changed so dramatically.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Hillary: 1
I am completely comfortable on her winning.


Senate: 5

I think we win Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Illinois in a song.

New Hampshire looks promising; the machine there is impressive.

This gets us to 50, which means we at least hold the Senate through January 2018, regardless of how the Virginia special election goes.

North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana are all still winnnable, but I have varying levels of hope for each race. I'd love to see us pick-off at least one, giving us the Senate through January 2019.

And since we don't know the compositon/political orientation of the droves of new/infrequent voters that Hillary's machine is driving to the Florida polls, I can't completely rule-out an oddball result in Florida. But I'm getting into fantasy territory there.
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
Grief.exe said:
r/The_Donald discovered the email where Hillary asked Colin how he used email while he was in office. They are acting like this is the smoking gun that will incriminate both of them.

N7BtO5g.png




Vermont and Colorado are very well educated, make it difficult to impossible for Republicans to make in roads.
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I feel like they have a number of smoking guns on their front page every time I check it. (Which isn't often to be honest). Also every single post about anything and everything has to be maximally hyperbolic for some reason.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
On the last day of early voting in Mecklenburg County (Charlotte, NC), an abbreviated day (polls were to close at 1pm because NCGOP hates democracy), 17,292 people still managed to vote. Mecklenburg County finishes +13.2% in early vote versus 2012, or a gain of 33,251 votes.

Code: 
Day	2012	Rsum	2016	Rsum	Pct vs 2012
1	15127	15127	13459	13459	89.0%
2	13961	29088	13043	26502	91.1%
3	11310	40398	9584	36086	89.3%
4	5468	45866	5573	41659	90.8%
5	14625	60491	12748	54407	89.9%
6	15314	75805	12698	67105	88.5%
7	15351	91156	11932	79037	86.7%
8	15130	106286	21815	100852	94.9%
9	15319	121605	21485	122337	100.6%
10	13260	134865	15467	137804	102.2%
11	6866	141731	8964	146768	103.6%
12	16979	158710	20379	167147	105.3%
13	16297	175007	21502	188649	107.8%
14	16398	191405	23422	212071	110.8%
15	18204	209609	25048	237119	113.1%
16	20594	230203	29843	266962	116.0%
17	20800	251003	17292	284254	113.2%
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Slayven said:
I always heard about them, but just went to their site for the first time. Dear god why didn't folks warn me? is it still 1996 there?
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The dude and his family who run it, rake in thousands of dollars a month for "server costs".

The entire right-wing is a giant grift meant to sell outrage and ethnic grievance to White folks. Televangelism has taught them well.
 
W

WarioFan63

Member
Assuming Hillary can get judges in to replace Scalia and probably Ginsberg, how long do we expect the 5-4 advantage to last? Could she end up replacing a 3rd judge to give us a 6-3 advantage?
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Do y'all think McMullin will underperform polls because he, y'know, has basically no organization?
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The Mormon faith self-organizes pretty well. I mean the entire culture is always planning how to quickly move families into bunkers when the signs of the apocalypse appear.

You don't have to have large GOTV efforts for them. It's the decadent heathens in SLC that need prodding and coddling.
 
R

royalan

Member
OMG

Has news for the entire night been DOMINATED by the incident at the Trump rally where nothing actually happened?

24 hour news was a mistake.

It's nothing but trash.
 
S

StormBrute

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
The Mormon faith self-organizes pretty well. I mean the entire culture is always planning how to quickly move families into bunkers when the signs of the apocalypse appear.

You don't have to have large GOTV efforts for them. It's the decadent heathens in SLC that need prodding and coddling.
Click to expand...

Excuse you, good sir, but I will have you know that I voted before any of my Mormon family or acquaintances.
 
L

linkboy

Member
Chezzymann said:
So I checked my facebook timeline in 2012 and apparently I was a raging republican who was pissed that obama won, blocked people celebrating, and posted things like "I'm tired of everyone on this facebook being flaming liberals". Now I'm the complete opposite.

I dont even remember any of that honestly. I guess back then the only political influences I had were fox news and my parents, and now I'm in college and view GAF all the time. So it makes sense why I changed so dramatically.
Click to expand...

Similar to me. Grew up in a hardcore conservative family. Joining the military, going outside of the U.S., gaining friends who are more liberal and this site, all have had a huge influence on my views (and I couldn't be happier).
 
S

SexyFish

Banned
@PaulLewis
This is the man who was ejected from the rally, sparking panic. He was holding a sign: "Republicans Against Trump"
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Trump for the love of God please blame Paul Ryan.

Edit: More

@PaulLewis
He says he's a Republican. He said he was terrified by how the crowd responded: "I was in survival mode. I knew I could die at that moment."
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@PaulLewis
His name is Austyn Crites. He's 33 and works on high altitude balloons. He's voting for some Republicans this year - just not Trump.
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DOWN

DOWN

Banned
I like the confidence in this campaign email I just got soliciting donations lol

Cannon, this team would’ve never made it this far without the support of people like you. And now, we’re just three days away from making history.

You deserve to have proof that you were part of this -- that your dollars fueled our Get Out the Vote effort and that your commitment to our campaign helped elect the first woman president.

Chip in $7 right now and we’ll send you the last ever limited-edition personalized Supporter Card so you can show everyone that you were part of history.
Click to expand...
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
UraMallas said:
Maybe it has to do with how uneducated we are, then. Hillary has been getting shit on for decades and I think a lot of people here have bought that narrative. I don't think that - I should say that I know it. Even the millennial generation that I'm part of believes this shit a lot more than they should around here. There is a strong hate for Hillary in IA. I've seen it for my entire adult life. She lost to Obama in the primaries and then barely beat Bernie, after all.
Click to expand...

Speaking of Iowa, before the Hillary rally there today a Bernie bro got on stage and said Hillary doesn't care about student college debt, then went on a rant about the military industrial complex and Goldman Sachs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9bmc1uKAz4

Help us help you man, it's a central pillar of her campaign.
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
If I'm reading Silver's tweets correctly, is he suggesting that his trendlines and "state errors correlation" stuff, which to remind people only hurt Clinton, accounts for almost 30% of the model? And that's why he is so much lower than everyone else? He's saying if they gave Clinton 1% increase in the model, Trump would still be at 30%, and if they got rid of the "all state errors correlate", which isn't necessarily that true in the first place, Trump's odds drop to <5%.

I have to be misreading this. I'm going to bed.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
StormBrute said:
Excuse you, good sir, but I will have you know that I voted before any of my Mormon family or acquaintances.
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Probably while sitting in some earthly den of caffeine imbibing, with your skinny pants, and hippity-hop playing. Why can't you get married and provide some children for your poor parents to dote over?
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Carpe Carnim said:
The Mormon faith self-organizes pretty well. I mean the entire culture is always planning how to quickly move families into bunkers when the signs of the apocalypse appear.

You don't have to have large GOTV efforts for them. It's the decadent heathens in SLC that need prodding and coddling.
Click to expand...
...now I'm back to not knowing Utah. At least Iowa is sorted out? :(
 
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