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[Manmademan]

It really pisses me off that the only reason this is even close is because of Bernie's shitty primary and Comey.

Had Bernie been less of an asshole the party would have been more united and Trump wouldn't have opened that window that Bernie first cracked opened with white male voters.

Eh...I dunno.

The people that are still hardcore, off the wall berniebros crying about the DNC stealing elections and whatnot are ultra-unlikely voters and stealth libertarians that never would have shown up in the general regardless. Many of them didn't even bother voting in the primary- they just enjoy showing up to rallies and airing grievances.

Lots of sound and noise, but no actual impact on election day.

Clinton's actual coalition is a lot wider than Obama's in 2012. There is a dramatically higher increase in minority participation from blacks and latinos, and college educated whites of both genders are leaning D by 10 points.

There is no way this is a 4 point election or even close to it- Obama v. Romney was 3.7.

I put this margin close to 2008 numbers once the final vote is actually tallied.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Priebus says they spent "$100 million" on polling in Michigan and that it's tied.

Also, since early voting is showing a higher percentage of women are voting than expected, doesn't that screw up polling?

Could have at least used a less fake sounding number. Jesus these guys are amateurs.

 

[Y2Kev]

FL: 44-44, was 46-43 C last month
OH: 46-45 T, was 42-46 C last month.

Yeah, so bad trends. I mean, that was post first debate so that's fine, off her high, but Florida being so tight is a bit

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wait, Parscale can't even be assed personalising email salutation?

Hello, friend?
Send $1 to happy dude if you want to be as happy as me.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Yeah, so bad trends. I mean, that was post first debate so that's fine, off her high, but Florida being so tight is a bit

The crosstabs are interesting.

They have electorate very diverse, 62%W, 14%B, 20%H and still tied. What the fuck.

 

[RustyNails]

These are weak for her.

Beliebe in groundgame. I'm still betting Trump supporting rural racist dumbfucks getting lost and ending up in wafflehouse on election night.

 

[Plinko]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1m1 minute ago

NC #earlyvote race comparison to 2012:
Afr-Am -65,650 (-8.7%)
White +343,073 (+18.6%)
Other races +36,565 (+43.7%)

That is really not good.

 

[Diablos]

Again, did they factor in early voting in the CBS poll

 

[nature boy]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 15m15 minutes ago
NBC/WSJ pollster Bill McInturff (R): If you are going to lose Latino voters by historic numbers, can't lose among college-educated whites

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 17m17 minutes ago
"I think it's pretty durable" -- NBC/WSJ co-pollster Fred Yang (D) on Clinton's lead in poll @MeetThePress

.

 

[Manmademan]

Priebus says they spent "$100 million" on polling in Michigan and that it's tied.

Also, since early voting is showing a higher percentage of women are voting than expected, doesn't that screw up polling?

Yes.

a higher percentage of women are voting, a higher percentage of minorities are voting, a higher percentage of first time voters are voting.

it's worse in states with heavy latino populations, but it seems to be true everywhere.

This is why I've been on the "polls don't matter" train for the last week or so. everyone's assumptions about who is likely and who isn't are going to be completely out of sync with the actual vote.

Again, did they factor in early voting in the CBS poll

NO pollster is factoring in early voting.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Honestly, if Qpac, Gravis and CNN/ORC had Clinton up in Flordia with polls conducted over the Comey weekend (and they did) it's probably safe to say she's ahead there.

 

[Boke1879]

Again, did they factor in early voting in the CBS poll

Is any poll doing this?

 

[Y2Kev]

The crosstabs are interesting.

They have electorate very diverse, 62%W, 14%B, 20%H and still tied. What the fuck.

Whaaaaat, that's insane. 20% H?

 

[Barzul]

Beliebe in groundgame. I'm still betting Trump supporting rural racist dumbfucks getting lost and ending up in wafflehouse on election night.

Fuck I love waffle house, but that was funny.

 

[Plinko]

.

Is Hillary winning among college-educated whites?

Yes.

a higher percentage of women are voting, a higher percentage of minorities are voting, a higher percentage of first time voters are voting.

it's worse in states with heavy latino populations, but it seems to be true everywhere.

This is why I've been on the "polls don't matter" train for the last week or so. everyone's assumptions about who is likely and who isn't are going to be completely out of sync with the actual vote.

That's what I thought. How much would it mess up polling, though?

 

[sazzy]

I'm wondering how many of Donald's supporters who've been attending his rallies in thousands will suffer from the bystander effect on Tuesday: they wake up, are too busy or too lazy to vote, and assume that everyone else they saw at the rally will be voting so they don't have to.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

That is really not good.

err

Other races +36,565 (+43.7%)

 

[SexyFish]

Should we start deciding on what bug Sam Wang is going to eat?

I say a cockroach.

Edit: I love that Tapper draws his little cartoons for his show. Allowed him to put his love for doodling into his job.

 

[thebloo]

Again, did they factor in early voting in the CBS poll

Yes. Kinda.

In both states, Clinton holds the lead among early voters while Trump leads with the rest. Ohio early voters break 63% to 33% for Clinton over Trump. However, this is among only 19% of the Ohio voters. Among the vast majority who have yet to vote, Trump leads by eight points, 49% to 41%. In Florida, Clinton’s lead among early voters is smaller – just 10 points, 51% to 41% – but also more meaningful because these voters make up 63% of the total. Trump leads by 51% to 35% among the Florida likely voters who remain.

As a result, Trump will be relying on Election Day enthusiasm to push him over the top. There is some evidence he has that in these two states: 80% of his Ohio supporters who have not already voted say they “can’t wait to vote”, compared to 75% for Clinton. In Florida, the gap between the candidates is larger, suggesting Clinton may have already turned out most of her most enthusiastic supporters. Among those who remain, 81% of Trump voters and only 58% of Clinton supporters “can’t wait to vote”.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

It really pisses me off that the only reason this is even close is because of Bernie's shitty primary and Comey.

Had Bernie been less of an asshole the party would have been more united and Trump wouldn't have opened that window that Bernie first cracked opened with white male voters.

Those are the only two reasons? Hillary isn't at fault for anything?

 

[Diablos]

Eh...I dunno.

The people that are still hardcore, off the wall berniebros crying about the DNC stealing elections and whatnot are ultra-unlikely voters and stealth libertarians that never would have shown up in the general regardless. Many of them didn't even bother voting in the primary- they just enjoy showing up to rallies and airing grievances.

Lots of sound and noise, but no actual impact on election day.

Clinton's actual coalition is a lot wider than Obama's in 2012. There is a dramatically higher increase in minority participation from blacks and latinos, and college educated whites of both genders are leaning D by 10 points.

There is no way this is a 4 point election or even close to it- Obama v. Romney was 3.7.

I put this margin close to 2008 numbers once the final vote is actually tallied.

I think you're going to be disappointed if 2008 levels are your expectation.

This is a 3-6 point win depending on how accurate the polls are and if EV trends carry into the 8th. 6 is like absolute best case which is close to 08 but ehh

Even Plouffe is saying 300 EV now. He doesn't mince words.

 

[shiba5]

Ted Nugent is going to say something fucking horrifying tonight and I can't wait for Trump to say "GOTTA LOVE TED NUGENT. AIN'T NO ONE LIKE EM."

No doubt. This is like pulling the pin on a grenade and expecting it not to go off.
They should invite Alex Jones too.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The EV gender make up is interesting.
In the past two cycles AA EV surged for the first black President.
I wonder if this similar history making enthusiasm is happening for women and EV. It's not yelling at rallies "enthusiasm". Or tweeting meme bullshit. It may be a quiet enthusiasm - even though that seems an oxymoron.

 

[Manmademan]

That's what I thought. How much would it mess up polling, though?

A lot. half of polling is deciding who is going to turn out and weighting responses based around that.

a lot of pollsters made the assumption that 2016 would be similar to 2012, but with decreased minority turnout (because blacks wouldn't show up for hillary, 2008 and 2012 were an anomaly!)

That's not speculation either- they did the same thing in 2012. Assuming minorities wouldn't show up like they did in 2008 because it was some kind of abberation.

They did- this is why the polling aggregate was off by 3 points.

2008 and 2012 weren't some kind of abberation, it's the new normal for AA turnout- NC aside, because we know what happened there with voter suppression.

So far looking at early vote totals, not only is AA turnout up (FL and GA are past 2012 totals) but latino turnout is astronomical, and women are up everywhere vs. 2012.

Polls are going to look really, really bad on november 9th.

I think you're going to be disappointed if 2008 levels are your expectation.

This is a 3-6 point win depending on how accurate the polls are and if EV trends carry into the 8th. 6 is like absolute best case which is close to 08 but ehh

Even Plouffe is saying 300 EV now. He doesn't mince words.

Obama/McCain was about 7 in 2008, IIRC. that's close to 2008 level, so glad we agree.

FWIW though, Steve Schale expects Florida's total vote to hit about 9.5 million. This is about 1.2 million over 2012, and 500K behind 2008.

This is while Trump is losing college educated whites, losing women by historic numbers, and is ten points behind where Romney was in the hispanic vote nationally.

I don't expect the total numbers to hit 2008 levels nationally, but I do expect Clinton's coalition to be broader than Obama's.

 

[The Technomancer]

Those are the only two reasons? Hillary isn't at fault for anything?

I don't blame Bernie as much as that guy but I do believe that every single major scandal Clinton has been hit with has been 100% grade A bullshit. Of course she's at fault for stuff, but the stuff that's actually been held against her this election isn't it

 

[Roland_Gunner]

honestly I doubt Comey has had as large of an affect as the increased Obamacare premiums.

Multiple reputable pollsters including the Washington Post and Marquette said that numbers tanked Friday and Saturday after the letter and then started to recover. Comey knocked the campaign completely off message and energized the Republican base. All based on no real evidence.

 

[nature boy]

Is Hillary winning among college-educated whites?

Up 10 in NBC/WSJ

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Whaaaaat, that's insane. 20% H?

Yea, poll made no sense to me.

https://www.scribd.com/document/330...nd-Tracker-Poll-Florida-Nov-6-2016#from_embed

Are you male or female?
Male ....................................................................45%
Female .................................................................55%

White ...................................................................62%
Black ...................................................................14%
Hispanic ................................................................20%
Other .................................................................... 4%

If someone can make sense of this let me know.

 

[Boke1879]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
NC only state where Afr-Am decline in total 2012 number. May be due more to illegal purging, polling place locations, etc. than enthusiasm

voter suppression works people

 

[Diablos]

Yea, poll made no sense to me.

https://www.scribd.com/document/330...nd-Tracker-Poll-Florida-Nov-6-2016#from_embed

If someone can make sense of this let me know.

Okay what's your phone number, is your answering machine plugged in

 

[balladofwindfishes]

voter suppression works people

Collecting good evidence for when the Supreme Court destroys this nonsense.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Fareed Zakaria is dragging Trump so much right now. So good. Called him a cancer on American democracy.

 

[thebloo]

Collecting good evidence for when the Supreme Court destroys this nonsense.

You mean when they ban EV. It's shameful that "some groups" can do this.

 

[Diablos]

Fareed said he plans to vote next Tues. lol

 

[Manmademan]

Yea, poll made no sense to me.

https://www.scribd.com/document/330...nd-Tracker-Poll-Florida-Nov-6-2016#from_embed

If someone can make sense of this let me know.

I can.

We had a few articles about this over the past week. Notice how Trump has 34% of the hispanic vote? That's laughably, wildly off base. (48% of "other" is weird too).

The reason this happens is because pollsters (especially those that don't poll in spanish) don't bother to differentiate hispanics from one another. Cubans are exactly like PR's who are exactly like mexicans.

Because the approach is like that, florida's cuban population who is far more "likely" to vote based on voting records for 2012, 2008, 2010, etc, far more likely to have landlines, and far more likely to speak english as a primary language get oversampled- and the hispanic vote ends up looking WAY more favorable to republicans than it actually is.

When correcting for this- polling in spanish and heavily using cellphones- the latino vote in FL drops to 75-15.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Fareed Zakaria is dragging Trump so much right now. So good. Called him a cancer on American democracy.

So is MSNBC. Fox still talking about emails.

 

[Iolo]

80% of Trump supporters in Ohio can't wait to vote, but can wait enough that they didn't vote early.

 

[Loudninja]

So is MSNBC. Fox still talking about emails.

I am so surprise.

 

[Hopfrog]

I am depressed for my future self for having to explain to students how we came so close to electing an unrepentant racist, misogynistic sexual predator puppet of a foreign regime to the presidency. That is assuming Clinton wins.

If it goes the other way I don't think I will need to worry about it, there won't be time for teaching while digging through the rubble for food in the aftermath of the Trump Wars.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

So is MSNBC. Fox still talking about emails.

That snl skit from last night was so on point

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Yea, poll made no sense to me.

https://www.scribd.com/document/330...nd-Tracker-Poll-Florida-Nov-6-2016#from_embed

I don't see their likely voter screen, do you have it? One thing Steve Schale has called out is that a large part of the Hispanic vote we've seen so far is from unlikely voters. Speaking of Schale his latest update is out and its still quite likely that Clinton wins FL:

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/6/the-shibacle-is-almost-over.html

 

[PantherLotus]

That snl skit from last night was so on point

oh gosh please link

 

[Plinko]

err

Still a loss of 30,000 votes.

Yea, poll made no sense to me.

https://www.scribd.com/document/330...nd-Tracker-Poll-Florida-Nov-6-2016#from_embed

If someone can make sense of this let me know.

Trump getting 34% of the Hispanic vote? Yeah, no.

 

[shiba5]

Should we start deciding on what bug Sam Wang is going to eat?

I say a cockroach.

Edit: I love that Tapper draws his little cartoons for his show. Allowed him to put his love for doodling into his job.

Pfft... cockroach. I say Camel Cricket. Seriously, Google that sucker.

 

[thebloo]

I don't see their likely voter screen, do you have it? One thing Steve Schale has called out is that a large part of the Hispanic vote we've seen so far is from unlikely voters. Speaking of Schale his latest update is out and its still quite likely that Clinton wins FL:

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/6/the-shibacle-is-almost-over.html

It's in their first question.

Already voted early or by mail ...........................................63%
Definitely will vote .......................................................35%
Probably will vote ........................................................ 2%
Maybe will vote .......................................................... 0%
Probably will not vote .................................................... 0%
Definitely will not vote ....................................................0%
Don’t know ...............................................................0%

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I believe today's turnout in FL for final day of EV + souls to polls + Obama visit will definitively determine who wins the state.

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Check nypost

Thanks. What garbage.

 

[Boke1879]

I don't see their likely voter screen, do you have it? One thing Steve Schale has called out is that a large part of the Hispanic vote we've seen so far is from unlikely voters. Speaking of Schale his latest update is out and its still quite likely that Clinton wins FL:

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/6/the-shibacle-is-almost-over.html

It was mentioned yesterday that Clinton has plans as of yet to return to Florida. Barack will be there today with Stevie Wonder and it's the last day for early voting there.

 

[Loudninja]

It's in their first question.

Yeah this poll makes no sense at all.

 

[Manmademan]

I don't see their likely voter screen, do you have it? One thing Steve Schale has called out is that a large part of the Hispanic vote we've seen so far is from unlikely voters. Speaking of Schale his latest update is out and its still quite likely that Clinton wins FL:

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/6/the-shibacle-is-almost-over.html

Right. there was a massive influx of hispanics from PR since 2010 that has no voting history and doesn't show up in LV screens.

These people are all voting.

I think it was thursday(?) that had 82.5% of the hispanic vote who showed up being classified as "low propensity" with little or no voting history.

When the actual vote is THAT far off from polls, polls no longer matter.