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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Is Obama going to Michigan in the next couple days? If they're really worried about MI, they should send him to Detroit.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
The biggest thing in that CBS/YouGov poll is they have 53% of EV being done by mail while by now, 58% has been done in person, mail is at 42%.
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and that goes back to the likely voter thing.

the "unlikely voter" contingent that is breaking records at the polls is all doing so via in person EV.

CBS's poll doesn't account for those people and didn't see them coming.
 
T

thebloo

Member
Barzul said:
I don't think Trump is going to win by the margins on election day that are being touted.
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A fraud in the hand is worth to in the bush. Right?

Manmademan said:
and that goes back to the likely voter thing.

the "unlikely voter" contingent that is breaking records at the polls is all doing so via in person EV.

CBS's poll doesn't account for those people and didn't see them coming.
Click to expand...

I honestly don't blame pollsters. If someone tells you "I don't know if I'll vote" 3 days before election, would you consider them a likely voter?
 
O

Oriel

Member
An election eve message from Germany.


nBYN583.jpg
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Marcus HawkinsVerified account
Columbus Dispatch scary-good:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)
Click to expand...

If anyone was laughing about that mail only poll that has Clinton +1 in Ohio, its actually remarkably accurate.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Diablos said:
Even Plouffe is saying 300 EV now. He doesn't mince words.
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It's also important to emphasize that PV can be wider here while EV drops.

We are probably losing Iowa. demographics there are terrible. We have no shot at indiana.

Meanwhile, we're seeing red state margins shrink drastically in places like TX, SC, and GA...but possibly not enough to flip them.

So Clinton could match or exceed the 2008 PV margin of 7%, while not hitting Obama's 365 EV number.
 
D

Diablos

Member
So Joe Heck is up by 3 compared to Trump. I wonder if that's a good indication of the margin we'll see nationally for the downballot Senate races in close states where Hillary is going to win
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Doc Holliday said:
It really pisses me off that the only reason this is even close is because of Bernie's shitty primary and Comey.

Had Bernie been less of an asshole the party would have been more united and Trump wouldn't have opened that window that Bernie first cracked opened with white male voters.
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The numbers don't reflect this at all. Democrats have already unified and have come home. What happened in the primaries hasnt really affected her now. She has just lost her soft supporters due to Comey.
 
T

thebloo

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Also this story made me sniffle
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“I tell my children, we have to work,” Ms. Vargas says. “It’s not for government to support me. We work work work.”

She pulls into the employee parking lot of the gold hotel, set aglow now by the unsparing morning sun. Searching for a parking spot, she passes other women, many of them also in black and gray tunics, hurrying toward the service entrance.

Soon she is heading for the same door, one more guest room attendant who wears a back brace while cleaning rooms for a presidential candidate whose name is on the bathrobes she stocks, on the empty wine bottles she collects, on her name tag.

He will receive her labor, but not her vote
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This is one of the most hard hitting paragraphs I've read.


Also, Maher can go suck a bag of dicks. "Romney wouldn't have affected my life". He still would have made life worse for a lot of people.
Liberals are not to blame for the normalization of Trump. At least most of them. Maybe Maher that has been carrying Coulter's water for years and years in the name of comedy bears some blame.

So, again, Bill, go suck a bag of dicks.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
royalan said:
It is absolutely heart breaking in a very real way to me that stuff like this can still happen.
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They didn't "intend" to have racial disparity so it's perfectly legal! /s

The bullshit threshold of intent is a travesty for equal protection.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Manmademan said:
It's also important to emphasize that PV can be wider here while EV drops.

We are probably losing Iowa. demographics there are terrible. We have no shot at indiana.

Meanwhile, we're seeing red state margins shrink drastically in places like TX, SC, and GA...but possibly not enough to flip them.

So Clinton could match or exceed the 2008 PV margin of 7%, while not hitting Obama's 365 EV number.
Click to expand...
That's a problem moving forward if things would continue to decline for Dems in midwestern states like IA. I can't believe how bad things look there compared to 8, even 4 years ago. It's gone.

I really hope there's an upset in a state like AZ or GA and AK just to pad the margins for HRC if nothing else
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
So is CNN not doing a final national poll? Maybe coming out Monday. Would be hilarious after all the hating Trump did on CNN, they were the only major network showing him leading. Not even Fox.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Diablos said:
That's a problem moving forward if things would continue to decline for Dems in midwestern states like IA. I can't believe how bad things look there compared to 8, even 4 years ago. It's gone.

I really hope there's an upset in a state like AZ or GA and AK just to pad the margins for HRC if nothing else
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no there isn't, because southern states like NC/VA/SC/GA/TX/AZ are moving towards the democrats due to higher latino engagement.

even millennial white voters are more heavily D than boomers and gen X are, so mortality rates will move virtually the entire country D over time no matter what happens.

IA and it's 6 EV can go fuck itself, I'm good.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
wumster3000 said:
It's a shame that Trump can win.

Honest question, is it white supremacy at this point?
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yes.

What reasons are people voting him?
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racism.

I see no benefit With him as president.
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the benefit is that minorities don't get free stuff.

President Lyndon B. Johnson once said, "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
Click to expand...
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Manmademan said:
President Lyndon B. Johnson once said, "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
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Wow.

That's a phenomenal quote.
 
S

sturgboski

Member
*sigh* Walking the dog and saw someone driving a car with a fishing pole hanging out of the backseat window waiving a giant Trump/Pence flag. Around the corner a house with a Trump/Pence yard sign. I thought we were smarter on Long Island...
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
wumster3000 said:
It's a shame that Trump can win.

Honest question, is it white supremacy at this point? What reasons are people voting him? I see no benefit With him as president.
Click to expand...

"Economic resentment". Because all of those people yelling "Execute her!", burning black churches, and making anti-Semitic Twitter posts are really ticked off about tariffs and Federal Reserve policy.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
sturgboski said:
*sigh* Walking the dog and saw someone driving a car with a fishing pole hanging out of the backseat window waiving a giant Trump/Pence flag. Around the corner a house with a Trump/Pence yard sign. I thought we were smarter on Long Island...
Click to expand...

Suffolk or Nassau?

I see a lot more Trump signs than I do Hillary here in Suffolk.
 
Z

Zackat

Member
sturgboski said:
*sigh* Walking the dog and saw someone driving a car with a fishing pole hanging out of the backseat window waiving a giant Trump/Pence flag. Around the corner a house with a Trump/Pence yard sign. I thought we were smarter on Long Island...
Click to expand...
I raid in WoW with a trump supporter from long island. He's... A character.
 
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