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[Aaron Strife]

Nate Silver's "but if so-and-so drops out, Trump can't win!" line is gone. No more.

It was never there.

There was never any guarantee that the supporters of the other candidates would all uniformly consolidate behind one candidate and it was foolish to pit Trump against the total of every other candidate. Especially considering candidates like Carson and Cruz were/are significant factors and are probably hurting Trump more by staying in.

Rubio is the fetch candidate, as in not happening. His winning strategy revolves entirely around losing.

 

[Basileus777]

Holy shit at that YouGov poll. I'm fully rooting for Trump to sweep TX Tuesday now (I know he will lose it, but still).

This really does hold true for both sides: people love a winner.

SC and Nevada have certainly moved things for him. It was always silly to act like peoples' 2nd and 3rd choices were set in stone and that Trump's ceiling wouldn't rise if he kept winning.

It was never there.

There was never any guarantee that the supporters of the other candidates would all uniformly consolidate behind one candidate and it was foolish to pit Trump against the total of every other candidate. Especially considering candidates like Carson and Cruz were/are significant factors and are probably hurting Trump more by staying in.

Rubio is the fetch candidate, as in not happening.

The thing is Rubio used to dominate these one-on-one matchups in polling, now he's losing them or close with Trump. The problem was people looking at those older polls and thinking that voters were locked in on their alternative choices.

 

[Jarmel]

What's amazing is that Bush dropping out has had no virtually no effect on Rubio's numbers.

 

[User 406]

I wonder if Trump ever asks himself why he has such a protester problem

What protester problem? His fans get to have their Two Minutes Hate and show their love for B-B, then the outspoken, unwanted minority is summarily ejected from the Presence. This shit is ritual. It enhances his xenophobic appeal. I wouldn't be surprised if he had planted protesters in any given rally just in case no real ones show up.

Good lord, not only is Trump going to kill the GOP for 2016, he's also destroying the future of two of their top prospects. Here's how Republicans perception of Cruz has crashed this year:

DISTRUST TED

TED IS A BIG FAT TED

 

[Macho Madness]

Looks like Democrats really made up their mind in the last couple of weeks

Getting serious about Trump. I'm telling you, it's having an effect.

The statistics support this by the way. 88-9 of Democratic primary voters believe she could win the general election.

 

[Basileus777]

What's amazing is that Bush dropping out has had no virtually no effect on Rubio's numbers.

His support split between Rubio/Kasich/Trump and he was never polling very high in most states. Voting blocs are not monolithic entities that move together to a single candidate.

 

[Aaron Strife]

What's amazing is that Bush dropping out has had no virtually no effect on Rubio's numbers.

Dude was barely cracking five percent by the time he dropped out. It would be like expecting O'Malley dropping out to give a boost to Bernie.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Clinton's Dem favorables in that YouGov poll are down to 70-30, stemming almost entirely from Sanders supporters throwing shit fits

 

[Jarmel]

Dude was barely cracking five percent by the time he dropped out. It would be like expecting O'Malley dropping out to give a boost to Bernie.

His support split between Rubio/Kasich/Trump and he was never polling very high in most states.

Oh numbers-wise it makes perfect sense. Just that there's zero hope for Rubio.

 

[Vinsanity.]

Will it be available online?

http://youtu.be/vMsuEfLXMz4

Link to the entire interview - from 6 minutes on is the good part. This YouTube video fades-to-black on the dead air at the end - waiting for Cruz to say thank you.

 

[Effect]

10% chance of happening.

90% chance: They start falling in line and endorsing Trump, with a few holdouts like Graham and McCain.

Likely right. It would be nice if there were people in the republican party that would be willing to take a stand and not be associated with someone like Trump. Instead they're far to craven in their attempts to hold on to power to distance themselves from someone they know is a bad for them and is only causing them to lose more and more control of their party. That's the thing I don't get. First with the tea party and not Trump. To keep power they have they're willing to play with fire and people that are doing things that limit their (GOP powers that be) control over them. Yet they keep doubling down it. I don't get that.

I wouldn't keep empowering people that turn around and try to take more and more power and control from me. Then use said power to go in a direction I don't like with the result me losing even more power and control. That's stupid. That's what republicans seem to be doing though.

 

[Box of Kittens]

If these national numbers are anywhere close to accurate, its seriously over:

Economist/YouGov poll

Trump 44
Cruz 21
Rubio 17
Kasich 8

3-way
Trump 49, Rubio 27, Cruz 25

1-on-1
Trump 58, Cruz 42
Trump 57, Rubio 43

As usual don't overreact to any one poll but honestly this is in line with how things have been going for a while now. And they'll keep getting worse for Rubio after he gets pasted on Super Tuesday. All these fantasies of him mounting a comeback and winning the nomination forcing a brokered convention don't seem to be accounting for how Tuesday's results are going to impact the poll numbers.

 

[User 463088]

Getting serious about Trump. I'm telling you, it's having an effect.

The statistics support this by the way. 88-9 of Democratic primary voters believe she could win the general election.

I agree with this. When Trump was a fictitious boogie man, it was easy for Dems to say "Sure, why not Sanders?" Trump is real. He's winning, and he's probably going to be the nominee. Hillary has now won 3 out of 4 contests. She's proven she can win even with the liberal wing of the party supposedly holding their breath.

Also, the Mas number was 100% pre SC, wasn't it? That's going to help solidify the lead. I bet she's going back there tomorrow to get that shit on lock. The media seemed to decide Mass is where Bernie's campaign lives or dies. She'll gladly concede MN, OK and CO if it means she can stick a knife in his campaign. Easy trade off.

 

[Tesseract]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UM8F4EuUbw

Tulsi Gabbard, The Judgment to Lead: Why I'm Endorsing Bernie Sanders

 

[Box of Kittens]

Clinton's Dem favorables in that YouGov poll are down to 70-30, stemming almost entirely from Sanders supporters throwing shit fits

The good news is those will improve after the primary is over.

 

[brainchild]

This is the key thing for me. I'm a firm believer that the only way to learn is to have your beliefs challenged. You don't necessarily have to change what you believe, but facing up to challenges and arguments against your beliefs forces you to really think about what you believe and to try and understand the reasons why you do. There is no healthier force for knowledge than reasonable and civilised debate.

I'd say it's also important for ourselves to challenge our own beliefs. It's one reason why I consider the scientific method to be one of the most important tenets of human wisdom in modern history.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Hard not to take note of the timing of Trump playing dumb on the KKK mere days before the SEC primaries. Trump is taking over the republican party with their own playbook.

 

[Makai]

Wrecked

 

[NeoXChaos]

we are going to on OT3 before March 15th

 

[danm999]

Have the media that talk up how "Clinton vs. Trump would be a dead heat!" ever explained how Trump is supposed to get the 60% of the white woman vote he would need?

Raw animal charisma.

Barf

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm diablosing like crazy. On Tuesday, when Trump Nation comes out and he puts up his needed margins in every state, I can breathe easy. But for now...OMG TRUMPMANIA/TRUMPRAMA GONNA RUN WILD ON YOU BROTHER

 

[Tarkus]

I've missed the last two chats I have trouble finding Ivy's post with the link sometimes.

 

[User 463088]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UM8F4EuUbw

Tulsi Gabbard, The Judgment to Lead: Why I'm Endorsing Bernie Sanders

I'm guessing most Bernie supporters will refuse this endorsement because of, among other things, Rep Gabbard's very questionable stance on LGBT issues in the past? Like how she led the charge to defeat the Civil Unions bill in Hawaii?

Of course, that was a while ago. She's right with Jesus now. And I personally don't have any issues with a politician who evolved on an issue as important as this. Especially one like Rep. Gabbard who has shown she's a great ally for the LGBT community.

Again, though, I think this is more anti-DWS than pro-Bernie.

 

[Rubenov]

What is this chat about and are straight people allowed there

 

[ivysaur12]

What is this chat about and are straight people allowed there

Yes and maybe.

 

[NeoXChaos]

 

[User 463088]

What is this chat about and are straight people allowed there

I mean, we don't encourage straight people....but we won't bar you from entry. Just, please, don't shove your lifestyle in our faces. That's all we ask.

Kidding! Basically, it's some diabolosing, me being a hot mess, and random discussion of politics. It's a lot of fun, and is the highlight of election nights for me so far. Join us!

 

[Gruco]

If these national numbers are anywhere close to accurate, its seriously over:

Economist/YouGov poll

Trump 44
Cruz 21
Rubio 17
Kasich 8

3-way
Trump 49, Rubio 27, Cruz 25

1-on-1
Trump 58, Cruz 42
Trump 57, Rubio 43

Nate "Totally a serious empirical analyst, no punditry here at all" Silver kept pushing the "Trump ceiling" and "Anti-Trump faction" narratives. They were always a joke and never corresponded to any voting patterns anyone has ever seen before. Trump's negatives were falling and his support was growing all fall and winter. His support grew as he was increasingly seen first as a legitimate candidate, and now as the front-runner.

Shit's over. No more Rubio fanfictions.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I wish more people understood that illness has a detrimental impact on the economy and social institutions. Not to be so partisan but Republicans have such tunnel vision they can't see the broader implications. Same issue with the minimum wage.

I'm not particularly convinced the individualism is constrained to the Republican side of the aisle.

These are what I can find for the effective tax burden on different individual income levels. (There are no household rates in AU). There may be rebates that I'm not accounting for.

	30000	40000	50000	60000	70000	80000
US	13.45%	14.43%	16.54%	17.95%	18.96%	19.71%
AU	7.47%	11.37%	15.59%	18.41%	20.42%	21.93%

For the AU numbers there's an additional 2% levy towards Medicare, which I haven't added. There are additional levies for higher earners but that's beyond these incomes.

The federal minimum wage is nominally $17.29. (Cost of living is higher though, so it's actually around $11 in US PPP apparently.)
There are still out-of-pocket healthcare costs, but on the whole everyone is covered under the system.
For a 3-year undergraduate degree you're probably looking at about $25K-$30K total tuition cost.

I'm quite comfortable with the latter; I think it's generally fairer. I like that there are social safety nets. I think a lot of people in this thread would prefer this too.

I'm somewhat unconvinced, however, that the US populous across the aisle voting for either party would be for it though, at least among people who actually vote.

 

[brainchild]

I'm guessing most Bernie supporters will refuse this endorsement because of, among other things, Rep Gabbard's very questionable stance on LGBT issues in the past? Like how she led the charge to defeat the Civil Unions bill in Hawaii?

Of course, that was a while ago. She's right with Jesus now. And I personally don't have any issues with a politician who evolved on an issue as important as this. Especially one like Rep. Gabbard who has shown she's a great ally for the LGBT community.

Again, though, I think this is more anti-DWS than pro-Bernie.

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not.

Anyway, personally, I say fuck her endorsement, but I'm sure that Bernie sees some good in it, if only because she's sticking it to the DNC, and more specifically, DWS.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Fuck any endorsement at this point, unless it's Zombie FDR.

Spoiler

No, I don't mean Sanders.

 

[teiresias]

Lordy at this YouGov Dem data:

In fact, one in three Sanders voters would be “upset” if Clinton won the nomination. 16% would vote for Donald Trump if Clinton were the Democratic nominee, another 14% would find someone else to vote for. However, polls conducted in the heat of a primary campaign often overestimate the level of November desertion by supporters of other candidates for the nomination.

So 30% of Sanders supporters would refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election - disregarding the overestimation factor anyway. I feel an OT thread coming on.

 

[Tarkus]

What is this chat about and are straight people allowed there

Occasionally, a random figure from the GOP shows up and has an absolute filthy mouth. You're not going to hear this kind of stuff on the shows.

 

[brainchild]

Fuck any endorsement at this point, unless it's Zombie FDR.

Spoiler

No, I don't mean Sanders.

Clever, lol

 

[User 463088]

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not.

Anyway, personally, I say fuck her endorsement, but I'm sure that Bernie sees some good in it, if only because she's sticking it to the DNC, and more specifically, DWS.

I'm not being sarcastic about her now being a good ally for the LGBT community. She's introduced or cosponsored several good pieces of legislation to help us out, especially LGBT service members. The rest of it, ya, I'm being sarcastic.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Lordy at this YouGov Dem data:



So 30% of Sanders supporters would refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election - disregarding the overestimation factor anyway. I feel an OT thread coming on.

Honestly I'd call those numbers normal for a heated primary.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Why does everybody share quotes via image now, instead of copying and pasting text? Something to do with mobile?

 

[ivysaur12]

Lordy at this YouGov Dem data:



So 30% of Sanders supporters would refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election - disregarding the overestimation factor anyway. I feel an OT thread coming on.

Eh, that's to be expected in a primary. Everyone comes around in November.

 

[Gruco]

Why does everybody share quotes via image now, instead of copying and pasting text? Something to do with mobile?

I have to imagine it's because of things being shared on twitter, and the character limit.

 

[Black Mamba]

75% of Republican Primary Voters believe Trump will be the nominee.

That's the moment the race is over.

It should show on Tuesday.

 

[Ogrekiller]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/10/04/the-flaw-in-zero-sum-politics/

Oldie but a goodie.

Choice quote:

That leaves the door open to the political leader who doesn’t fixate on trashing the other side, isn’t part of D.C. and can find the points of agreement while standing up to his base as needed. That person may be very popular and actually accomplish something. We don’t have someone yet, but if Republicans want to dispel their image as negative, angry and divisive — and win some big elections — it would behoove them to find someone like that.

Talk about backfiring.

 

[brainchild]

I'm not being sarcastic about her now being a good ally for the LGBT community. She's introduced or cosponsored several good pieces of legislation to help us out, especially LGBT service members. The rest of it, ya, I'm being sarcastic.

Ah, OK. I didn't realize you were only referring to her current status with the LBGT community when you said that she's shown that she's a good ally. That makes more sense.

 

[watershed]

Lordy at this YouGov Dem data:



So 30% of Sanders supporters would refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election - disregarding the overestimation factor anyway. I feel an OT thread coming on.

It was probably worse at the height of Obama v Clinton in 08. Everyone came around eventually. There is little evidence the democratic coalition will not hold, though turnout is another issue.

 

[User 463088]

Ah, OK. I didn't realize you were only referring to her current status with the LBGT community. That makes more sense.

Mainly just poking fun at those that think that because Hillary was once not in favor of marriage equality she's somehow incapable of redemption on the issue.

I'm too tired to be halfway clever. Sorry.

 

[RustyNails]

Wrecked

Important lessons to learn from the graph: Only Ben Carson came even close to knocking Trump off the pole position. Rest of the clowns slumming with Jindal at the bottom.This was a clear indication that the conservatives had no apetite for the usual dog and pony show from the GOP. No amount of Nate Silver hypothesizng was going to change that and it's ridiculous that he never took Trump seriously. The story was clearly there behind the numbers. Another lesson, no amount of endorsements or superpac money from the typical GOP was going to affect the race. Neither Jeb nor Rubio saw any increase in their standing after airing million dollar adsand oppo research. Romney was playing whack a mole with his competition with his superpacs. Just unload a barrage of nonstop attacks on Santorum and Gingrich whenever they start popping up in primaries. This clearly didn't work in 2016.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Why does everybody share quotes via image now, instead of copying and pasting text? Something to do with mobile?

Journalists don't have space to post the text on Twitter so they screencap the text and post it as an image. These images are then taken from the journalists' Twitter posts.

 

[teiresias]

Journalists don't have space to post the text on Twitter so they screencap the text and post it as an image. These images are then taken from the journalists' Twitter posts.

I wonder if this will change when the character limit raises on Twitter - or is this practice just part of the twitter vernacular at this point.

 

[sangreal]

I wonder if this will change when the character limit raises on Twitter - or is this practice just part of the twitter vernacular at this point.

that's the reason they are talking about increasing the character limit

(a mistake, but I digress)

 

[sangreal]

Wrecked

where is kharvey to tell us we are all idiots for doubting nate and trump will collapse any day?

It really says something when Cruz and Rubio can't even hit Ben Carson numbers let alone Trump numbers

 

[Plinko]

Spoken almost as if he was guaranteed this by the RNC.