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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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jaekeem

Member
If you read Scott Adams' blog, his opinions and justifications for supporting trump are hilarious.

He claims to be apolitical, but says that Trump's rhetorical power could be used to shame ISIS fighters into hesitation. So that makes trump's heterodoxy better than both sides' respective establishment candidates.
 
You just proved her point.

People doing their research is exactly why this issue first arised. She has a record, but she also has a well proven history of getting donations from lobbyists of the industry. So maybe she could address that in a more elegant way than calling young voters ignorant, poor researchers.

you made too many during the summer on every pro-bernie poll.

Those were the good old days. I am getting unjuniored after the convention, or so I was promised. :p
 
I've seen zero talk out of who is playing to what demographics or what area each candidate should be targeting, etc, and might not have much narrative for election night. Why won't anyone notice Kasich going after the tsundere vote? Meaning preposterously apologetic people who try way to hard to stay polite and find it difficult to express that they hope Senpai notices them. This is vitally important to differentiate from the % of people who are "just" specifically apologetic, which is, well, everyone. I'm not even trolling here. He should have good numbers in CD2.

Seems Trump is playing a game of locking in a few congressional districts, and is avoiding conflict by showing up in the actual population centers. He'll be fortunate to escape with any delegates at all, frankly. I'm sort of sad/disappointed he did have an event in Madison where it would have resulted in epic drama. Oh my god that would have been so much fun. Could probably been able to match Chicago's insanity. Cruz sneaked in at the edge of town on less than 24 hours notice for a small event and escaped the furious hordes as a result.
They should space it out so there are 3 states every Tuesday for the entire primary season.
This would be awesome! Draw states at random for maximum effect. Iowa and NH can keep their insane traditions, though.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Oh I guess Krugman is aligned with the Chicago School

The only evidence that Hillary could at all be aligned with Chicago is her tremendous love of Rahm Emmanuel, a great American and racial hero.
 

Sianos

Member
Probably linked earlier, but the article deserves a second look:

Electoral Map Is a Reality Check to Donald Trump’s Bid

I introduce you to the "Not Trump, not now, not ever" contingent:



Please proceed, etc.

At the same time, today a family member was telling me about a twitter campaign that is apparently widespread among Trump supporters to send Paul Ryan a postcard every Monday saying something to the effect of "no Trump, no vote" that she will be participating in.

Perhaps it will do her good to participate in the kindling of the burning down of the Republican party - maybe their disgusting paradigms and social pressures will catch on fire as well and after they are reduced to ashes she will finally accept help and therapy for her cluster of symptoms resembling panic disorder and OCD.
 

Armaros

Member
People doing their research is exactly why this issue first arised. She has a record, but she also has a well proven history of getting donations from lobbyists of the industry. So maybe she could address that in a more elegant way than calling young voters ignorant, poor researchers.

Maybe if the people could actually show the 'quo' in 'quid pro quo' they like to accuse her of

Or we can point to the diary industry contributions Bernie has recirved over the years combined with subsidies he got them in return.
 
New York State Voter Enrolments as Registered Democrats
Code:
	Apr-15		Nov-15		Apr-16
Active	2,796,529	2,757,691	2,757,691
Total	3,158,507	3,111,786	3,071,159
Retroactive momentum? EDIT: Reading fail. This is NYC.
Quite a lot. Obviously Hillary's hawkishness is a big difference between the two candidates. I'm addressing, more generally, the sentiment that ideology seems to fall to the side from democrats when it comes to tearing down their less preferred candidate. Saying that Bernie's platform shows an ignorance toward economics is a straight up republican attack line.
On general ideology, they basically agree.

On how to achieve that, they fundamentally disagree. There are certain planks of his platform that do basically throw economic orthodoxy out the door. There are certain planks that wouldn't bear out as suggested based on empirical study.

His policy on financial regulation that seems to make people enamoured, for instance, is frankly a pretty facile and outdated approach to a complex, modern issue.
 

T'Zariah

Banned
MILWAUKEE—When Sen. Bernie Sanders began to speak at the Wisconsin Democratic Party’s Founders Day Gala on Saturday night, he took a moment to thank the local party officials in attendance. “Let me begin by thanking you not just for my sake for being here tonight, but for the work that many of you have done over the years,” he said. He then gave a brief ode to the importance of getting involved in the political process. It was well received, but it could have been given anywhere.


Hillary Clinton began much differently, name-checking each of the party VIPs in attendance. “It is great to be here with some of your best,” she said, rattling off names like Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett; “your fearless congresswoman,” Rep. Gwen Moore; your “fantastic senator,” Tammy Baldwin. She praised former Sen. Russ Feingold, who’s running to recapture his seat this cycle. She mentioned a few out-of-staters in attendance: Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards (“my friend”), Minnesota Sen. Al Franken, California Rep. Maxine Waters, and Indiana Rep. Andre Carson.

“To all of the city, state and local leaders who pour your hearts into building the Democratic Party across Wisconsin, please know this: I will help you take back the governorship and the state legislature,” she said. “I am a proud Democrat, and I support Democrats up and down the ticket, always have, always will.”

With whom could she have been drawing a contrast?

Local party dinners like this have never really been Bernie Sanders’ thing. He is, after all, an independent who’s running for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination because he considers it the best vessel for spreading his message. To some crowds, his aloofness from any particular party is a plus. But at the Founders Day Gala, the subtext of Clinton’s speech was her fidelity to the Democratic Party, “up and down the ticket”—and Sanders’ lack of it.

Both candidates littered their speeches with attacks at the obvious go-to target in the state of Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker. “Think about all of the things that Gov. Scott Walker does, and I will do exactly the opposite,” Sanders said before railing against Walker’s anti-union positions and relationships with big business. He spoke of his “absolute contempt” for Wisconsin’s voter ID law. “If you don’t have the guts to participate in a free and fair election,” he said, “get out of politics, and get another job.” Clinton, meanwhile, went after the “bully” Walker’s attacks on teachers and firefighters, and his cuts to higher education.

But Clinton went further. Most notably, she made a point of emphasizing her preference in Tuesday’s state Supreme Court election. This technically “non-partisan” election between sitting judge Rebecca Bradley, whom Walker appointed to the court last fall and whom Republicans are supporting, and challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg, whom Democrats are supporting, is a vicious battle being fought across the state. Clinton didn’t shy away from commenting.

“Right now, there is a Walker-appointed judge running for the highest court in this state,” Clinton said, as the crowd began to boo. Bradley “has actually said—I had to read this three times—she has actually said birth control is ‘morally abhorrent,’ and doctors who provide it are ‘party to murder.’ Let me say that again.” She said it again.

“There is no place on any Supreme Court, or any court in this country, no place at all for Rebecca Bradley’s decades-long track record of dangerous rhetoric against women, survivors of sexual assault, and the LGBT community.”

Each candidate made their broader pitch, but Clinton paid special attention to local political issues to show her devotion to party efforts at lower levels. “If I’m fortunate enough to earn the Democratic nomination, I will have your back against Gov. Walker and the Tea Party legislature here in Wisconsin,” she concluded. “I will campaign to elect Democrats at every level. … I’m the only candidate in this race who’s pledged to raise money to help build our party. I want to be your partner for the long haul—not just when I’m on the ballot, not just in an election year.”

Do primary voters really care about how loyal their candidates are to a party structure? Not necessarily. Exhibit A would be Sanders’ slight polling lead in Wisconsin at the moment. But if Sanders is going to try and sway Clinton’s superdelegates—a necessity if he’s going to win the nomination—he’s going to have to break a lot of relationships the Clintons have forged with party officials over the years. Clinton’s speech Saturday was a reminder of all those relationships, of the meticulous care required to build and maintain them. Sanders’ speech was a reminder of how little he likes the scrabbly routines of intraparty politics.

And he still wants to try to get the supers to switch? LOOOOL
 
Code:
	Apr-15		Nov-15		Apr-16
Active	5,262,004	5,281,140	5,268,431
Total	5,792,674	5,778,460	5,792,497
So this is statewide Registered Dems for NY.

Basically very little change over the course of the last year.
 
I think it's just more of Trump revealing that, on the social issues tied to religion, he's completely disconnected from the GOP base. He's clearly not religious or from a religious family -- he's got New York values, after all. He knows he's supposed to be pro-life if he's campaigning for the GOP nomination but I suspect his actual position is basically "what?"

It definitely speaks to how little effort Trump has actually made to identify what positions he is supposed to be holding or what there is to say about them. Again, I don't think Trump is any sort of skilled politician or master planner. I think he's just saying honestly what he thinks, which is that America used to be better and colored people should know their damn place. Just turns out to be exactly what the GOP base wants!

I don't agree. I think Trump basically doesn't give a fuck about most of the social conservative stuff and so hasn't put much thought into it because he knows the kind of support he's going to get is not contingent on being "right" on those issues, as long as he pays some lip service to them. I do, however, think he's pretty obviously a master marketer, from the consistency with which he speaks at an almost agonizingly infantile level about every issue so as not to remotely come across as politiciany or elitist, to the little winks and nods to the white supremacists' base, to probably having engineered a big kerfuffle in Chicago to dominate media coverage leading into Super Tuesday 2, to the way he absolutely spams his various slogans and catchphrases at every rally, in every debate answer, and whenever he talks to the press, this is a man who knows exactly what he's selling and how to sell it to the people who might buy it. He's been very, very careful to couch most of his racism behind technically non-racist, socially semi-palatable rationales (i.e. keep out the Muslims people because our right to protect ourselves is more important than honoring their desire to be here, deport Mexicans because they're flooding the economy with cheap labor and bringing crime with them), because he knows the crowd that's going for his message still want to think of themselves as good, moral people and thus have to have a defensible vehicle to convince themselves they're not racist.
 

hawk2025

Member
Speaking of research, it might be worth googling who is actually at the Chicago school of Economics these days and what they do.


That strawman is 20+ years gone.
 

Makai

Member
Dilbert is a really unlikable character, anyway.

dilbert-creator-scott-adams-presents-his-10-favorite-comics-of-all-time.jpg
 

Tom_Cody

Member
Seems like Drumpf is on track to get more delegates in North Dakota than anyone expected. It will most likely still be majority Cruz, but everyone thought maybe 1 or 2 delegates for Drumpf, he might get more than 5 at this point. Everything helps.
Where are you seeing this? I haven't seen any actual reports about North Dakota delegate allocations yet.
 
Can you expand on this? I think it's pretty accurate to say that Scott Adams is a huge misogynist and it's consistently reflected in his writing.

There's absolutely no substance whatsoever. Some of those quotes are heinous, some are more just odd, one or two have a germ of a point, but all the article is is a series of quotes followed by snarky indignation. It's the laziest sort of clickbait that sites like this all too often traffic in. Scott Adams, whatever his flaws, at least seems to have a perspective - a pretty paltry, often quite contemptible (though not uniformly so) one, but a perspective nonetheless, something to engage with on some level, however minor.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Probably linked earlier, but the article deserves a second look:

Electoral Map Is a Reality Check to Donald Trump’s Bid

I introduce you to the "Not Trump, not now, not ever" contingent:



Please proceed, etc.

Here's my problem, though: Cruz is just as vile as Trump. Pretty much everything he believes is either equal to or further right than Trump, yet Trump is the guy they "absolutely can't vote for."

It makes zero sense.

Also, Cruz got 18 of 25 delegates in ND? Not surprising.
 

Makai

Member
Actually, now that I think about it, it's a little werid that Scott Adams loves Trump. The whole joke of Dilbert is that The Boss With Bad Hair is an idiot but for some reason he should be president.

the-data-analyst.jpg
 
There's a pseudointellectual bent to the MGTOW/KiA stuff, and whatever his strengths as an embodiment of some of the silliness that has arisen amongst the alt-right types in the last few years, Trump definitely trammels all over that with his third-grade speaking style and serial ignorance.
 
And he still wants to try to get the supers to switch? LOOOOL
The fact that Bernie doesnt bring up local politics and namedrops important people like the mayor is because he doesnt care about them (the establishment!). More importantly, his base doesn't care and wouldn't know half the names mentioned by Hillary. These are people outside the politics. She will put up a good fight but lose Wisconsin.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Dont worry about Kasich

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...k-block-kasich-ballot-open-convention-n549996

As for the dropped out campaign delegates:

If Trump were short 100 delegates, for example, limiting the options for the delegates up for grabs might push a few more toward him. Trump would not need to win most of those delegates.

If both Kasich and Rubio were off the ballot and their campaigns were deemed over, the number of delegates in play could exceed 400. In a scenario in which Trump was down 100, he would only need one 1 of 4 of them.
 
And he still wants to try to get the supers to switch? LOOOOL

This is why I call his superdelegate strategy a non-strategy. Superdelegates would be extremely reluctant to overturn the results of the primary for fear of angering the voters. To think that they would do so for Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton is ludicrous. His campaign has to know this as well. Any talk of getting superdelegates to switch over electability or momentum or whatever argument of the week is just a way to convince supporters they still have a path to the nomination.
 
Bernie originally wanted a debate in Brooklyn on April 14th. Now that Hillary agreed, he no longer wants a debate in Brooklyn on April 14th. Bless.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
This is why I call his superdelegate strategy a non-strategy. Superdelegates would be extremely reluctant to overturn the results of the primary for fear of angering the voters. To think that they would do so for Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton is ludicrous. His campaign has to know this as well. Any talk of getting superdelegates to switch over electability or momentum or whatever argument of the week is just a way to convince supporters they still have a path to the nomination.

well if Sanders really did go 55-45 through the rest of the primary, they'd probably be pretty close to tied in delegates. At that point, the only thing the Sanders campaign can do IS say what they're saying now.

I don't look into it too seriously; his campaign is done and they're just trying to spread a message. I do dislike how little control he seems to have over his surrogates and his..."fans"...but whatever. Hillary did shit in 2008 too.

The good news is that the "hillary too" argument will stoP with a capital P after the primary. She worked her tail off for Obama. If Sanders doesn't because he holds out for some imaginary concessions or because he's going to be a crotchety old piece of shit, then I hope he loses his committee roles and fucks off. I do feel that's fair.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
This is weird.

@Nate_Cohn
A yuge reason Trump will struggle in Wisconsin: many people of self-reported northwest European ancestry

‏@Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn Retweeted Tider89
Yet it's basically the second most important predictor of Trump support, after education Nate Cohn added,
 

Bowdz

Member
Here's my problem, though: Cruz is just as vile as Trump. Pretty much everything he believes is either equal to or further right than Trump, yet Trump is the guy they "absolutely can't vote for."

It makes zero sense.

Also, Cruz got 18 of 25 delegates in ND? Not surprising.

I completely agree. Cruz is Trump with most of the downsides and none of the upsides.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
The fact that Bernie doesnt bring up local politics and namedrops important people like the mayor is because he doesnt care about them (the establishment!). More importantly, his base doesn't care and wouldn't know half the names mentioned by Hillary. These are people outside the politics. She will put up a good fight but lose Wisconsin.
He doesn't need to care about anything except the presidency. Bernie Sanders in the White House and a million disaffected white youth in the DC streets will solve all of America's problems.
 

Sobriquet

Member
Actually, now that I think about it, it's a little werid that Scott Adams loves Trump. The whole joke of Dilbert is that The Boss With Bad Hair is an idiot but for some reason he should be president.

I thought he didn't like or agree with Trump, but thinks he'll win.
 
The good news is that the "hillary too" argument will stoP with a capital P after the primary. She worked her tail off for Obama. If Sanders doesn't because he holds out for some imaginary concessions or because he's going to be a crotchety old piece of shit, then I hope he loses his committee roles and fucks off. I do feel that's fair.
She did a backroom deal for Sec State. Unless he gets that too he should run third party for the will of the people.
 

Tom_Cody

Member
So what are everyone's current predictions for who the GOP nominee will end up being?

I'm having an increasingly hard time seeing Trump getting the nomination at this point.
I'm still leaning towards Trump, but I strongly favor Cruz (specifically Cruz) if it goes to contested convention.

I'm basing my prediction largely off of 538's Trump projection
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/

Even though Cruz's expected win in Wisconsin will put Trump behind their projection, the #nevertrump gang is in for a brutal stretch from 4/6 (post-Wisconsin) all the way to Indiana (5/3). In spite of Trump's bad week, recent polling would seem to indicate that he is going to get virtually every delegate in the month following 4/6. I just don't think #nevertrump will be able to keep momentum going in the face of those defeats.

Regarding the convention, people naming Kasitch or a parachute candidate (Romney, Ryan) simply aren't paying attention. Not only is Trump not locking up delegate allegiance for the second ballot, Cruz is virtually sweeping them. This is where supposedly Kasitch was going to show strength but it simply hasn't happened. Cruz is looking like a lock if it makes it to the second ballot. But he and his supporters are going to have to make it through an absolutely brutal month if they are going to be able to make that happen.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Is anyone intimately knowledgable of the geography/towns of eastern Kentucky? I need some help with something I'm writing.

I'm sure she can find a place for him in her cabinet.

(neck to the plates and dishes amirite)



Does that mean trump got 6?

All ND delegates are officially uncommitted, but likely most of them will be Trump.
 

ivysaur12

Banned

Yeah, none of them are officially for anyone. I think it's unlikely any of them will support Kasich in the end, and Trump was able to get some key people on the slate that were on the original party slate. It's likely he'll score a few delegates out of it, maybe more if it's coming out of the end of the primary super strong.

I find it extremely unlikely that anyone will go for Kasich if they are not bound, especially since he probably won't be the on the first ballot.
 
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