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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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V

VendettaRed07

Member
Almost hope Bernie wins Wisconsin just due to the new voting laws that have been implemented there. If Hillary wins we'll hear nothing but corruption, scandal, Clintonian conspiracies, etc.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
The mentality is the same. It's not a comparison of policy.

At the core, both extremes are under the impression that increased polarisation is what's missing from enacting their preferred policies.
That when their side is just a blue or red dot.
journal.pone.0123507.g002.0.PNG
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Then everything will come up Milhouse.

Whereas increased polarisation of the GOP has gotten them...?

There are accelerationists with opposing political ideology too.

As for BernieBro, seriously get over it. It's a nothing term that a random writer came up with. It will disappear after the election cycle. And it's a label for people who've chosen to support and associate themselves with a particular politician. So really, who cares.
Get back to me when you've ever been called something actually objectionable.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
ivysaur12 said:
IF DWS was a moderate, then I'd care less. But she's not. She's incompetent as a party leader, but that's not an elected position.

Who are we taking out next? Nancy Pelosi? Debbie Stabenow? Al Franken? Sherrod Brown? John Lewis?

Yet we're totes okay with moderate Tulsi Gabbard because she backed Bernie even though she'd be a perfect person to primary!
Click to expand...

DWS is a corrupt piece of shit who sabotages Democrats in her own state so her Republican pals like Ros-Lehitnen can stay in office.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
imrs.php



I then subtracted the swing-y states Romney won (Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and North Carolina) under the theory that Trump could lose any state with a significant minority population that was even marginally competitive in 2012. I took Utah from Trump, given how poorly he has performed in states and regions with heavily Mormon populations. North Dakota and South Dakota went to John McCain with only 53 percent in 2008, so, in a Trump worst-case scenario, they would go to Clinton. Ditto Montana, where McCain got 50 percent in 2008 and Romney took 55 percent in 2012. Indiana went Democratic as recently as 2008, making it a plausible pickup for Clinton if everything went south for Trump.

That gets Trump down to 128. Which, in truth, isn't a historic drubbing. In fact, it wouldn't even make it into the top five worst electoral college losses in the post-World War II era. To do that, Trump would need 73 or fewer electoral votes. (Dwight D. Eisenhower beat Adlai Stevenson 457 to 73 in 1956.)

Why isn't Trump's worst-case scenario all that bad, historically speaking? The Times piece explains it rightly: "The country’s politics have become so sharply polarized that no major-party contender is likely to come near the 49-state defeats suffered by Democrats in 1972 and 1984."

The country is simply too partisan for anyone -- up to and including Trump -- to win zero, one or two states. Obama won a major national victory in 2008 -- and took a total of 365 electoral votes. There are simply a bunch of states that will not vote for one party or the other no matter whom that party nominates. That will be especially true in some of these traditionally Republican states if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

And so, even under Trump's worst-case scenario map, he wins 128 electoral votes and 16 states -- including the electoral college behemoth of Texas. The states that stay red on that Trump worst-case scenario map are rightly understood as states that I simply cannot imagine would choose Clinton over anyone with an "R" after their name.
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U

User 463088

Banned
I have to admit, it's pretty impressive that a no-name, Independent senator from Vermont has been able to position himself as the sole measurement of liberalism in this country.

The comparison between the far left and the tea party is not one of ideology, but of methods, "purity" and the real potential to actually harm their own interests.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Kusagari said:
DWS is a corrupt piece of shit who sabotages Democrats in her own state so her Republican pals like Ros-Lehitnen can stay in office.
Click to expand...

That's not even entirely accurate. At this point, the way Bernie fans have phrased it, you'd think that she was in sole control of the redistricting in Florida.

She's been vocal about her friendship towards people like Ros-Lehitnen for a while, and yes, she did not endorse her challenger in 2014. That sucks! But in terms of actually voting, what has she done that's so egregious that requires her to be primaried? What policy positions does she hold that are so out of step with her district and the Democratic party that she must got as a representative? And this is as a representative, not as head of the DNC.

Retromelon said:
Hillary winning georgia lol
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After North Carolina, Georgia becomes one of the most likeliest states for Hillary to flip against Trump, so I'm not sure what this means?
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
adam387 said:
I have to admit, it's pretty impressive that a no-name, Independent senator from Vermont has been able to position himself as the sole measurement of liberalism in this country.

The comparison between the far left and the tea party is not one of ideology, but of methods, "purity" and the real potential to actually harm their own interests.
Click to expand...

Thank you for putting it so succinctly.

I guess with the increased polarization and lack of compromise by the Republican party, it was inevitable the left would have the same thing. They must not be taking a look at the logical conclusion of the Republican party. Otherwise you would think they would not want to travel down the same path. *sigh*
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
Melkr_ said:
People who are willing to contribute to candidates like Canova and some others dont feel like their interests are being represented by the current post-Bill Clinton consensus of the Democratic Party. They have a right to feel represented.
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I keep hearing this but doesnt it make more sense to say post-Obama? Even though he supported moderate legislation, he was to the left of Bill Clinton and he wrapped his policies in a progressive message and helped push the party to the left. Look at each president's election victories. Clinton won places like Louisiana, Arkansas, and Georgia, states Obama lost. While there is plenty of overlap between both there is also plenty of differences in voter support. The "Obama coalition" is what we consider the base of Democratic support today. this in addition to blue dog Democrats getting completely demolished in 2010 show how different the party has become.
 
J

Jimmy King

Member
adam387 said:
I have to admit, it's pretty impressive that a no-name, Independent senator from Vermont has been able to position himself as the sole measurement of liberalism in this country.

The comparison between the far left and the tea party is not one of ideology, but of methods, "purity" and the real potential to actually harm their own interests.
Click to expand...

I've been wondering if such a thing as a left Tea Party will take shape after this election.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Macho Madness said:
Yeah an islamaphobic representative being a Bernie surrogate isn't good
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Strange enough lot of s4p posters think Tulsi is a natural VP choice for Sanders.

I think she's someone to watch out for and I dont mean that in a good way. She very well might run for office herself following Bernie's footsteps of burning the establishment. She will definitely raise her national profile after 2016.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Alright. Then I wanna primary Tulsi Gabbard with someone actually liberal. You with me, Melkr?
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Maybe all that surfing made Gabbard to evolve in her problematic stances?

The core of my argument is that these developments (if they happen, for all we know the "movement" dies with the primary) are not just a tantrum and a vendetta, but that they could be representative of a part of the electorate wanting more than what the Dems are giving them right now.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
RustyNails said:
Strange enough lot of s4p posters think Tulsi is a natural VP choice for Sanders.

I think she's someone to watch out for and I dont mean that in a good way. She very well might run for office herself following Bernie's footsteps of burning the establishment. She will definitely raise her national profile after 2016.
Click to expand...

That's the only reason an Islamaphobe moderate would decide to rebrand themselves as to whatever she's doing now, and duped an entire subset of the electorate because she endorsed the right guy.

Melkr_ said:
Maybe all that surfing made Gabbard to evolve in her problematic stances?

The core of my argument is that these developments (if they happen, for all we know the "movement" dies with the primary) are not just a tantrum and a vendetta, but that they could be representative of a part of the electorate wanting more than what the Dems are giving them right now.
Click to expand...

Would you support someone primarying known-islamaphobe Tulsi Gabbard with an actual liberal?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
States where the margin of victory was under 5% (75 electoral votes):

Florida, 0.88%
North Carolina, 2.04%
Ohio, 2.98%
Virginia, 3.87%
States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (119 electoral votes):

Colorado, 5.37%
Pennsylvania, 5.39%
New Hampshire, 5.58%
Iowa, 5.81%
Nevada, 6.68%
Wisconsin, 6.94%
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 7.16%
Minnesota, 7.69%
Georgia, 7.82%
Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 8.56%
Arizona, 9.06%
Missouri, 9.38%
Michigan, 9.50%

2008

Missouri 0.13%
North Carolina 0.33%
Indiana 1.03%
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district 1.21%
Montana 2.26%
Florida 2.82%
Ohio 4.59%
Georgia 5.21%
States/districts in which margin of victory was more than 6% but less than 10% (58 electoral votes):

Virginia 6.30%
South Dakota 8.41%
Arizona 8.52%
North Dakota 8.63%
Colorado 8.95%
South Carolina 8.98%
Iowa 9.53%
New Hampshire 9.61%
Nebraska's 1st congressional district 9.77%
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
adam387 said:
I have to admit, it's pretty impressive that a no-name, Independent senator from Vermont has been able to position himself as the sole measurement of liberalism in this country.

The comparison between the far left and the tea party is not one of ideology, but of methods, "purity" and the real potential to actually harm their own interests.
Click to expand...

Well said adam
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
Dont forget Nunn and Carter got about the same percentage of the vote in 2014, a midterm, a year they should have done worse, as Obama did in 2012.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
ivysaur12 said:
That's the only reason an Islamaphobe moderate would decide to rebrand themselves as to whatever she's doing now, and duped an entire subset of the electorate because she endorsed the right guy.



Would you support someone primarying known-islamaphobe Tulsi Gabbard with an actual liberal?
Click to expand...

If she wants to rise her profile nationally within a Sanders movement, she will have to face the consequences of all her anti-Islam rhetoric. I dont see how she expects to do it, honestly. And yes, I would support her losing the seat to someone more compassionate.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
HanShotFirst said:
Dont forget Nunn and Carter got about the same percentage of the vote in 2014, a midterm, a year they should have done worse, as Obama did in 2012.
Click to expand...
Yup, similar to NC. High black turnout kept those states relatively close.

Georgia is just NC but a few years behind, which is similar to NC being a few years behind Virginia.

Arizona would be in a similar position, but McCain's home state status in 08 and Obama camp's decision to only really stay in the swing states in 2012 sort of masks the demographic shifts that have been happening there. If Hillary makes a serious play for it this year she could very well win it.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Melkr_ said:
If she wants to rise her profile nationally within a Sanders movement, she will have to face the consequences of all her anti-Islam rhetoric. I dont see how she expects to do it, honestly. And yes, I would support her losing the seat to someone more compassionate.
Click to expand...
Her history seems to have already been handwaved away?

Everyone loves courageous Tulsi. Enemy of the Schultz.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Melkr_ said:
If she wants to rise her profile nationally within a Sanders movement, she will have to face the consequences of all her anti-Islam rhetoric. I dont see how she expects to do it, honestly. And yes, I would support her losing the seat to someone more compassionate.
Click to expand...

That's good to hear.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
ivysaur12 said:
That's not even entirely accurate. At this point, the way Bernie fans have phrased it, you'd think that she was in sole control of the redistricting in Florida.

She's been vocal about her friendship towards people like Ros-Lehitnen for a while, and yes, she did not endorse her challenger in 2014. That sucks! But in terms of actually voting, what has she done that's so egregious that requires her to be primaried? What policy positions does she hold that are so out of step with her district and the Democratic party that she must got as a representative? And this is as a representative, not as head of the DNC.
Click to expand...

I want to make it clear, I'm not for this Bernie uprising happening everywhere. But DWS offers nothing. She uses her power to stifle Democrats in districts they could legitimately challenge, there's a reason Ros-Lehtinen is one of the only Republicans supporting gay marriage, and hasn't done much of anything to help the prospects for Democrats statewide. Debbie is the Florida Democrat, the one with the most power in the state, and we see where that's gotten us. With a bench that's currently leading to Alan fucking Grayson possibly ending up as the senate nominee and 'illustrious' nominees like Crist and Sink losing to Voldemort for governor.

If her seat was in any danger of going to a Republican then I could understand. But it isn't. I live in South Florida. Canova wins the district easily.

I truly believe Debbie being phased out of power in the state could only help Democrats in future elections statewide.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Kusagari said:
I want to make it clear, I'm not for this Bernie uprising happening everywhere. But DWS offers nothing. She uses her power to stifle Democrats in districts they could legitimately challenge, there's a reason Ros-Lehtinen is one of the only Republicans supporting gay marriage, and hasn't done much of anything to help the prospects for Democrats statewide. Debbie is the Florida Democrat, the one with the most power in the state, and we see where that's gotten us. With a bench that's currently leading to Alan fucking Grayson possibly ending up as the senate nominee and 'illustrious' nominees like Crist and Sink losing to Voldemort for governor.

If her seat was in any danger of going to a Republican then I could understand. But it isn't. I live in South Florida. Canova wins the district easily.

I truly believe Debbie being phased out of power in the state could only help Democrats in future elections statewide.
Click to expand...

Ros-Lehtinen is for gay marriage because her son is Trans.

What has Debbie done to keep South Florida Republicans in office?
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Clinton only raised $29.5M in March.

#disarray

Has $29M on hand, so spending was about the same.

She raised another $6M for downballot/state committees.
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Yup, similar to NC. High black turnout kept those states relatively close.

Georgia is just NC but a few years behind, which is similar to NC being a few years behind Virginia.

Arizona would be in a similar position, but McCain's home state status in 08 and Obama camp's decision to only really stay in the swing states in 2012 sort of masks the demographic shifts that have been happening there. If Hillary makes a serious play for it this year she could very well win it.
Click to expand...

I think its highly likely Hilary wins close in Arizona against Trump, Georgia she will at least close the margins (maybe get around 48% 49%), and NC shes pretty much expected to win right? demographics will say as much. I wonder how well she can do in South Carolina, Obama got 44% in both 08 and 12 so I think she can do better but probably still lose.

like you said if the order of turning democratic is: Virginia-North Carolina- Georgia- then South Carolina is next right? In the South East at least.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I do kind of wonder what the Sanders campaign intends to do with their coffer when he finally drops out. Are they going to spend every dollar. Distribute to other races? Buy Tad a new house?

Edit: The campaign had no debt last I checked.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
shinra-bansho said:
I do kind of wonder what the Sanders campaign intends to do with their coffer when he finally drops out. Are they going to spend every dollar. Distribute to other races? Buy Tad a new house?

Edit: The campaign had no debt last I checked.
Click to expand...
Why would he have any left? He will spend it all in California and New York
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Macho Madness said:
Like that guy on Twitter said, the media is actually fooling people into thinking it's closer than it is.
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This will happen in the primary too. No money in a race that is not close.

Y2Kev said:
Dws is incompetent so I can't get upset about Bernie supporters actually focusing their rage on something good!
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This is almost bordering on too Machiavellian for me - but if getting DWS primaried gets her out of her DNC chair position - the potential gain from installing someone legitimately competent there would be worth more than any single seat. Head of the DNC has such crazy power.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
shinra-bansho said:
I do kind of wonder what the Sanders campaign intends to do with their coffer when he finally drops out. Are they going to spend every dollar. Distribute to other races? Buy Tad a new house?

Edit: The campaign had no debt last I checked.
Click to expand...

I believe you generally transfer the money to the DNC / RNC general funds. But I don't know if things have changed post Citizens United.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Cybit said:
This is almost bordering on too Machiavellian for me - but if getting DWS primaried gets her out of her DNC chair position - the potential gain from installing someone legitimately competent there would be worth more than any single seat. Head of the DNC has such crazy power.
Click to expand...

I think she'll be out no matter what, so it doesn't matter.
 
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