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[Box of Kittens]

Link for the results?

http://www.channel3000.com/news/politics/Election-Results-Statewide-Races/38853020

This one has the county breakdowns: http://www.wisconsinvote.org/

 

[eBay Huckster]

If he nets 10 or so delegates, her lead will be about 205 delegates after tonight. Washington still hasn't published all the delegate numbers yet.

looks like NYT/Google are still showing only 1/3 of WA's delegates while TGP has all of them approximately allocated

though even then, 58-42 gets this to about 212 (+14) and Wyoming gets this to about 206

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

yep. looks like NYT/Google are still showing only 1/3 of WA's delegates while TGP has all of them approximately allocated

Best place to check is 538, scroll down to the bottom and you see washington's mostly likely final allocation.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

 

[Y2Kev]

Fuck I just realized there's some Wyoming trash caucus on Saturday.

 

[Loudninja]

Onwards to New York I am so bored of this.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Best place to check is 538, scroll down to the bottom and you see washington's mostly likely final allocation.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

TGP does it live, tho (and they've also got that 27-74 split)

 

[T'Zariah]

Steve Kornacki with dat math.

Spoiler

He's also gay. <3

 

[GnawtyDog]

Contested convention practically a lock...

 

[jack_package_200]

An 11% win is a net of 8 for Sanders, and if Wyoming on Saturday goes 10-4 for Sanders, he'll be behind by 214 delegates, just in time for New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland.

And I have not seen any hard evidence that Bernie will win those three states + he has done nothing to court the superdelegates.

 

[Y2Kev]

Steve Kornacki with dat math.

Spoiler

He's also gay. <3

He is?

 

[T'Zariah]

So, pack it in, boys. The GOP is going for a contested convention.

What a time to be alive.

I'm taking off for that entire week.

 

[harSon]

An 11% win is a net of 8 for Sanders, and if Wyoming on Saturday goes 10-4 for Sanders, he'll be behind by 214 delegates, just in time for New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland.

RIP

 

[User 463088]

538 pulls from The Green Papers to get their delegate allocation.

My mom is cartoon_solidering and diablosing hard as fuck. Bless her heart.

 

[T'Zariah]

He is?

http://www.salon.com/2011/11/16/the_coming_out_story_i_never_thought_id_write/

 

[Fox318]

AP's results by the way: http://interactives.ap.org/2016/primary-election-results/?STATE=WI&date=0405&SITEID=WADEMELN” class=

I want to see the 20 people who voted for Jim Gilmore

 

[User 463088]

He is?

He is, ya.

 

[Aaron Strife]

And I have not seen any hard evidence that Bernie will win those three states + he has done nothing to court the superdelegates.

Yup any delegate gains he's made since after the 3/15 primaries is likely to be destroyed by the end of this month.

 

[eBay Huckster]

half of based Milwaukee just came in and the margin is now 5

zzzzzzz

 

[AntraxSuicide]

That's a good cut for Hillary. She'll get to close out April after Wyoming goes for Bernie with some stomps in MD, NY, and PA (are y'all PA?).

 

[Kusagari]

I think Kasich's done. Zero chance he gets it at the convention.

Cruz or Paul Ryan lmao

 

[And_Gignac]

Yeah, Milwaukee just gave a 4% push to Clinton.

 

[jack_package_200]

That's a good cut for Hillary. She'll get to close out April after Wyoming goes for Bernie with some stomps in MD, NY, and PA (are y'all PA?).

Clinton crushing Sanders in Pennsylvania

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/275192-clinton-crushing-sanders-in-pennsylvania

 

[Y2Kev]

Chris Matthews: Bernie has authenticity on Brooklyn

Rofl

 

[shinra-bansho]

Was it called already? I think he'll win but felt early given the margin isn't really astounding right now.

And only like half of Milwaukee has come in.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Take this with a grain of salt because we don't know that the precincts that are reporting are representative of their counties, but comparing to 2011 (which Kloppenburg lost by 0.5%) it's not looking promising.

 

[shem935]

Was it called already? I think he'll win but felt early given the margin isn't really astounding right now.

Yeah I was about to ask. Guardian has not called it and the spread is only 5% with 20% in.

 

[Loudninja]

Was it called already? I think he'll win but felt early given the margin isn't really astounding right now.

And only like half of Milwaukee has come in.

Yep called already.

 

[superdeluxe]

And I have not seen any hard evidence that Bernie will win those three states + he has done nothing to court the superdelegates.

New Jersey and Maryland are out of reach for Sanders imho

 

[ivysaur12]

Take this with a grain of salt because we don't know that the precincts that are reporting are representative of their counties, but comparing to 2011 (which Kloppenburg lost by 0.5%) it's not looking promising.

Ugh.

 

[Holmes]

Yeah this is a 10% win for Sanders. I think Trump is on track to win 2 CDs, maybe if he's lucky. A lot of Cruz's base is in. I'm surprised at his strength in Milwaukee.

 

[Y2Kev]

Has the AP called the dem race? Can't find on Twitter.

Edit: just called

 

[shinra-bansho]

Upshot model still predicts a double digit win. So I guess there's still a lot of the less populated and whiter areas to come.

 

[Suikoguy]

Was it called already? I think he'll win but felt early given the margin isn't really astounding right now.

And only like half of Milwaukee has come in.

My 5 point prediction is looking better and better ;p
I'd be happy with anything under 10 though.

Early voting gets counted last right?

 

[Kusagari]

Even if we graciously give Bernie NY and PA, I just don't see how he even comes close in Maryland.

And if he loses there he's done.

 

[noshten]

Clinton crushing Sanders in Pennsylvania

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/275192-clinton-crushing-sanders-in-pennsylvania

Good thing Pennsylvania isn't voting today

 

[Suite Pee]

Shorewood, the suburb immediately north of Milwaukee, apparently still had big lines up until the end.

 

[Macho Madness]

Yeah Upshot right now showing Bernie ahead by 14. So unless he underperforms elsewhere, he'll meet his targets.

 

[eBay Huckster]

And I have not seen any hard evidence that Bernie will win those three states + he has done nothing to court the superdelegates.

At this point I'd say Clinton has a better chance of winning RI 55-45 or more than Sanders does of keeping any of the other states on the 19th/26th within 12, and I'm probably still being too conservative in both directions

 

[shem935]

Okay guardian just called. They always seem slow on the take.

 

[Y2Kev]

Another polling miss IMO.

 

[hawk2025]

Milwaukee sure ate into that lead (for now).

 

[Ihyll]

Are we guaranteed a brokered convention with this Cruz victory?

I want the Republican party to limp into November broken and divided

Of course it wouldn't make a difference if the Sandernistas decide to throw a temper tantrum at the voting booth

 

[Iolo]

If we take the average of the CBS and Benchmark exits we get Sanders +15, which tracks with the Upshot model.

Polling miss goes both ways too. They missed on the 15th and could be underestimating Hillary in later contests.

 

[jack_package_200]

Milwaukee sure ate into that lead (for now).

Its major population area + its a more diverse city. Many of the more rural counties are mainly white.

Good thing Pennsylvania isn't voting today

As someone who lives in Portland and despises the Birdie Sanders meme, that avatar triggers me.

 

[Suite Pee]

Well, fuck. Both of the WI Supreme Court and MKE County Executive races are going the wrong way.

 

[Macho Madness]

DDHQ (I know!) thinks it'll be about a 5 point win for Bernie

 

[Y2Kev]

If we take the average of the CBS and Benchmark exits we get Sanders +15, which tracks with the Upshot model.

Polling miss goes both ways too. They missed on the 15th and could be underestimating Hillary in later contests.

The upshot is really volatile right now though. Now +12, which is actually behind target. Needs more time.

 

[ivysaur12]

Upshot is tightening now too.

 

[Plinko]

I think Kasich's done. Zero chance he gets it at the convention.

Cruz or Paul Ryan lmao

Cruz is guaranteed to get it.

 

[Y2Kev]

Kasich is wasting time.