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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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H

Holmes

Member
When asked how well they'll do in New York, Sanders' campaign be like

tumblr_inline_o4rlybzcJ51qjrev4_500.gif
 
I

Iolo

Member
Fox318 said:
Is there even a path for Bernie without NY or Cali?
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There's only the slimmest of slim paths right now if he wins big in both. I don't know what Baghdad Tad is thinking.

Also way to play the expectations game, Clinton "ally":

Politico said:
“They’re very worried about a Zephyr Teachout situation,” said one Clinton ally close to the campaign. “The left is very mobilized. In New York [for Clinton] it’s not just about winning. They have to win 65 to 35.”
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F

Fox318

Member
Macho Madness said:
No. Unless he flips supers but lol
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part of me wants to see a tie and the dems forced to confront the superdelagate problem.

Walter Mondale shouldn't have a vote equal to that of a town in Indiana.

I get that the party wants to prevent a Trump or McGovern but having and cultivating multiple electable candidates is a better strategy.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Fox318 said:
part of me wants to see a tie and the dems forced to confront the superdelagate problem.

Walter Mondale shouldn't have a vote equal to that of a town in Indiana.

I get that the party wants to prevent a Trump or McGovern but having and cultivating multiple electable candidates is a better strategy.
Click to expand...

The Republicans had multiple electable candidates. That isn't preventing their voters from picking Trump.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/u...n-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

Diversity

Mrs. Clinton fares best in areas with large numbers of Hispanic or black voters. She does better among these voters in the South than in the North, but it’s nonetheless an advantage for her in California and along the Acela Corridor, where there is an above-average percentage of nonwhite voters.

The model picks up on Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhite voters in a few ways, but the bottom line is that she has won every primary where white voters represent a below-average share of the electorate. She has won all but one county where nonwhite voters represented a majority of eligible voters in a primary — as is now the case in California as a whole.

Her big win in Arizona might be particularly indicative of her likely strength in Southern California and the state’s Central Valley.
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The Anti-Obama Vote

One thing Mr. Sanders has going for him are the anti-Obama Democrats.

Mr. Sanders has generally fared poorly in the South and Appalachia, but he has tended to do better in a surprising spot: areas where there are large numbers of the old registered Democrats who vote Republican in presidential elections, but nonetheless find themselves trapped in a Democratic primary thanks to a closed or semi-closed system.

These conservative voters appear to be choosing Mr. Sanders in big numbers. You can see the traces of it in the stark increase in Mr. Sanders’s support when you cross from Georgia into the Florida Panhandle, a state with a closed primary and party registration. You can see it along the borders of Oklahoma, and along the North Carolina border as well. It shows up in another way: the large numbers of voters who are voting for “uncommitted” or a minor candidate.

It’s not entirely clear whether these voters actually support Mr. Sanders. The exit polls in Oklahoma showed Mr. Sanders winning big — 59 percent to 24 percent — among the large number (28 percent) of voters who wanted the next president to change to less liberal policies. That doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t support Mr. Sanders; perhaps they think of liberalism in cultural terms, like racial issues or guns. But it does raise doubts. Mr. Sanders won easily among the 17 percent of voters who trusted neither candidate in an international crisis.

The model accounts for this with a surprising variable: Barack Obama’s share of the vote in the 2012 Democratic primary. That’s not a typo. As president and running without a major opponent, Mr. Obama won just 57 percent of the vote in Oklahoma in 2012, thanks to these conservatives who still vote in Democratic primaries.

The pattern is good news for Mr. Sanders in West Virginia and Kentucky, with the model putting him over the top there, even though Mr. Sanders has lost almost all of the counties bordering these two states. Without this variable, Mrs. Clinton would be favored in both states.
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So far, Mr. Sanders has won only two of the 21 primaries by more than 16 points: Vermont, his home state, and neighboring New Hampshire.
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M

Macho Madness

Member
Fox318 said:
part of me wants to see a tie and the dems forced to confront the superdelagate problem.

Walter Mondale shouldn't have a vote equal to that of a town in Indiana.

I get that the party wants to prevent a Trump or McGovern but having and cultivating multiple electable candidates is a better strategy.
Click to expand...
A tie? okay that's even less likely than a Sanders nom

Supers are there to "put the delegate majority winner over the top" not to subvert democracy. They'd account for more than 15% of the total delegates if they were meant to do that.
 
A

Armaros

Member
Fox318 said:
But he didn't flip on the Iraq war for example.

She has always flipped on issues.

Is she still talking about how MMA needs to be illegal or GTA is killing society?

What about with regards to weed legalization? Are we just assuming she is lying about her views and in 3 years she will be for it?


Conservatives rushed a ton of stuff to the supreme court with that 3 judge thing Roberts set up and with his death its backfiring.
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What about Bernie touting his F with the NRA has proof he isn't weak on gun control. While ignoring that he had a C rating from them when he voted for the gun manufacuter immunity bill. How progressive

What about Bernie saying he was a life long supporter of gay marriage, while only supporting civil unions as late as 2009. 'Gay marriage as law would be too divisive'
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
PPP National Poll

Trump 42
Cruz 32
Kasich 22

Clinton 54
Sanders 36

Clinton leads within every gender, race, and age group except younger voters and her supporters are also more committed- 84% say they will definitely vote for her compared to 61% who say the same for Sanders.
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M

Macho Madness

Member
Holmes said:
They gave Clinton such a light shade in New Mexico, in a closed primary that'll be 40% latino and 70% 45+? Probably basing it off more on 2008 than how every other similar state has voted?

tumblr_inline_o4rlybzcJ51qjrev4_500.gif
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Nate Cohn's models are based a lot on who's voted so far this year. Probably hurt more by there being no good exit polls out of Arizona than anything.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Holmes said:
They gave Clinton such a light shade in New Mexico, in a closed primary that'll be 40% latino and 70% 45+? Probably basing it off more on 2008 than how every other similar state has voted?

tumblr_inline_o4rlybzcJ51qjrev4_500.gif
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Scruff had New Mexico as one of Clinton's weakest states in their nationwide survey (Sanders +4).

Hopefully the straights pull through for ha.
 
F

Fox318

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
The Republicans had multiple electable candidates. That isn't preventing their voters from picking Trump.
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Fiorina, Paul, Gilmore, Rubio, Kasich, Pataki, and Graham were the most electable.

If the same people behind the Jeb camp backed their money and resources into another candidate Trump and Cruz would not still be in the race.

GOP had a vocal minority dictate the party because the rest of it was split up on too many candidates.

Ironically the dems did the opposite. Not one candidate outside of Hillary was a big plyaer.

I mean Mark Dayton, Warren, Cory Booker, Jack Markell , or even Kate Brown could have ran.

Instead everyone backed out and the only other realistic candidate and only one with a message got backing and a spotlight all to himself.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Also from PPP:
Turning to Ryan or Romney would really cause division within the party. Although Ryan is decently popular, with a 50/35 approval as Speaker of the House, only 42% of primary voters would be comfortable with him as their candidate to 45% who would not. Romney is completely unacceptable- only 28% say they'd be comfortable with him as nominee to 62% who would not and he's just generally unpopular- that 28/62 spread is also his favorability rating.
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Here's the GOP's convention theme song, given that there is no graceful exit from this situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG9m-6dVKRI
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Kasich's supporters are literally the only not insane people in the GOP:

When Donald Trump first rose last summer we found that most of his supporters were birthers who think President Obama is a Muslim and seven months later that dynamic has not changed. Only 26% of Trump voters think President Obama was born in the United States to 52% who think he was not, and just 9% think President Obama is a Christian to 62% who think he's a Muslim. The numbers aren't much better among Cruz supporters- just 32% of them think the President was born in the United States to 39% who think he was not and only 12% of them think he's a Christian to 56% that believe he's a Muslim. Only Kasich's supporters come out looking good on these questions- 58% think the President was born in the United States to 23% who think he was not, and 46% think he's a Christian to 31% who think he's a Muslim. But having the support of the reasonable segment of the GOP electorate isn't getting Kasich very far. We also asked if people think Muslims should be allowed to serve in the US Military and Kasich voters said yes by an overwhelming margin (75/15) while Cruz (41/37) and Trump (42/39) voters are closely divided.
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...ndidate-to-gop-clinton-leads-comfortably.html
 
C

CCS

Banned
Apart from anything else, that's the flashpoint that Hillary needs to go in on the sexism angle on Trump.
 
i_am_ben

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
Fox318 said:
I guess but people lined up left and right to anoint her. Human Rights campaign practically endorsed her the second she filed.

I probably will wind up voting for her in the November election but outside of Women's rights issues she has never been consistent with any policy.

Its why I voted for Obama over her.
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Hillary has been pretty good on gay rights throughout her career.

And even on matters where she hasn't been, a lot of gays have been willing to cut her some slack because they believe she's had to compromise her beliefs because it was politically necessary. It's worth remembering a lot of gays have had first hand experience with hiding or compromising their beliefs because of their family/friends/workplace.

Also, gay people have a thing for women who survive adversity. Hillary is basically only a prescription painkiller addiction away from being deified in the Parthenon of all time great Gay Icons™.

That said, who knows for sure? Maybe Hillary has hated gay people the entire time.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
This Lewandowski thing couldn't be a bigger gift. If Hillary and the dems seriously fuck up this election, it'd be the most exasperating loss ever. Everything is going perfectly for them to win this November.

And it's seriously awful that they denied it so thoroughly and then Breitbart being pieces of shit for throwing her under the bus.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Brinbe said:
This Lewandowski thing couldn't be a bigger gift. If Hillary and the dems seriously fuck up this election, it'd be the most exasperating loss ever. Everything is going perfectly for them to win this November.
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Seriously, the stars have been aligning for the Dems this cycle.
 
C

CCS

Banned
studyguy said:
I need to see the fucking ads for the general if Donald "I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created" Trump is the Republican nominee. Like I need this in my life.
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It will be beautiful. The hardest part for the ad writers is going to be working out what are the most offensive things he's said.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Each poll makes me more confident that the GOP is divided into:

White Nationalists: 40%
Churchgoing, reactionary white people: 35%
I want a tax cut: 25%
 
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