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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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R

RustyNails

Member
Fox318 said:
I need to see this on the CNN video wall before we continue this discussion.
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Blitzer: We are now going to walk over to John King and the magic wall to see how bad women's bathrooms are John do women pee on the floor

King: Thats right Wolf we are getting numbers straight from the bathrooms across the precincts take a look at this bathroom. Heavily Romney in 2012 but now it's pee all over the place. What changed well you have to see whats driving the numbers: lots of young people are turning out in droves.
 
F

Fox318

Member
Zona said:
As someone who has to clean public restrooms, the women's room is generally far, far, far worse then the men's room.
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Damn

Maybe I've just been lucky with the rooms I've had to clean.

Thankfully I don't do that anymore.

I promise that when I become president that all bathrooms will serve everyone and will even come with free mints.
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
NeoXChaos said:
CeugmOTXEAE7ebb.jpg:large
CeuhEVhXEAAuDej.jpg
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Derp.

What is the stat showing that Clinton is 14 out of 16 victories when more than 7% of the electorate actually vote?
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
daedalius said:
I like how my facebook feed is littered with calls for Clinton to suspend her campaign because Bernie is just crushing it.

Every time he wins a state, not matter how small, this is happening.

I think we're joking ourselves if we think he will drop before the convention. It literally doesn't even matter to his supporters if its mathematically impossible.
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My TL is filled with conspiracy theories about Arizona and losing their sh*t about Clinton's camp debating Sanders.
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
Bowdz said:
I really don't care how long he stays in as long as he doesn't run third party. If they want to run this out until June 7th, that's their call. Besides, it absolutely is helping Clinton establish ground game and organization in every state which will later be utilized in the general. The politico article today concerning her efforts to run up the margins in NY prove that nothing is being taken for granted and ultimately, that is a good thing.

As long as Bernie doesn't actively sabotage her in the fall with a third party run, he's fine.
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If he does that he just handed the republicans 2 positions in SCOTUS
 
D

daedalius

Member
superdeluxe said:
My TL is filled with conspiracy theories about Arizona and losing their sh*t about Clinton's camp debating Sanders.
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Oh yea, that too.

The liberal websites that I have liked, which before the primary were pretty inoffensive, are now just 100% in the tank for Bernie and pushing his path to victory, no matter how unlikely it is.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Abby D. Phillip ‏@abbydphillip 43m43 minutes ago
Sandra Bland's mom says people blame Hillary for Bill Clinton's actions "If I was to be held accountable for everything my man did??? Whoa!"
 
S

studyguy

Member
By the way a lot of the internet seems to be framing the charges brought up against Trump's campaign manager, you'd think he'd have to full on deck the girl before people would realize he's in the wrong.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Plinko said:
I really think the most likely scenario now is the RNC getting the delegates to give the nomination to Cruz on subsequent ballots.
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I just can't understand why'd they give it to Cruz if they're going down that route. Cruz is basically a less charismatic version of Trump and his positions are so far to the right of Romney's in 2012 that they are straight poison in the general. Giving it to Cruz will piss off a majority of the GOP according to recent polls saying whoever has a plurality at the convention should win the nomination and yet they'll still deal with his own toxicity in the general.

If they are going to steal it, they might as well choose Kasich because he is at least somewhat moderate in the context of the current field and will hold up better for down ballot races in the eyes of the party brand.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
he will be mathematically eliminated on the 7th of June. She will have the majority of pledged delegates that day.

I used nates model projections. I guessed territories and DC but they should favor Hillary.

http://DemRace.com/?share=YOGv8uSC
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It would be really nice if she could hit 2383 just from pledged delegates, just because the diehard Bernie supporters are going to get really infuckingsufferable if she needs the SDs to push her over the top.

I mean, they will be insufferable either way, but this way they'd have less ground to stand on.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bowdz said:
I just can't understand why'd they give it to Cruz if they're going down that route. Cruz is basically a less charismatic version of Trump and his positions are so far to the right of Romney's in 2012 that they are straight poison in the general. Giving it to Cruz will piss off a majority of the GOP according to recent polls saying whoever has a plurality at the convention should win the nomination and yet they'll still deal with his own toxicity in the general.

.
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Not necessarily so. That new poll shows that 50% of Americans agree with Cruz's ideas about patrols of Muslim neighborhoods and travel bans. Insanity.

I honestly think the biggest thing that will hurt Cruz in the general? That idiotic Value-Added tax that would absolutely destroy the lower- and middle-class incomes.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Only Trump or Cruz will come out of the convention. Look at how the establishment is lining up behind Cruz. He's their Plan B.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Plinko said:
If Trump had anywhere near the organization that Cruz does he would be walking away with this thing.
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I'm not going to lie, as much as a piece of shit Trump is, I'm actually really annoyed by how incompetent he is. If he was only slightly more organized, or slightly more moderate, or was slightly more skilled at brushing off criticism/attacks, or slightly more thick-skinned, he would already be the defacto nominee at this point.

Makai said:
Rubio asked to keep his delegates in Alaska.
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While this and all the other shadow stuff the GOP is trying to pull to deny Trump the nomination is fair game, if I was a Trump voter, I'd be becoming increasingly furious at each of these sorts of news stories. The nomination process was never completely democratic but having my vote basically usurped in this fashion would piss me the fuck off.
 
C

CCS

Banned
It's annoying, if Trump had a better campaign he'd still get destroyed in the general but he'd have the nomination wrapped up by now. Oh well.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
studyguy said:
By the way a lot of the internet seems to be framing the charges brought up against Trump's campaign manager, you'd think he'd have to full on deck the girl before people would realize he's in the wrong.
Click to expand...

It's just classic internet misogyny. Women are always crazy liars saying that men attacked them for no reason. Not surprising at all.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Aaron Strife said:
It would be really nice if she could hit 2383 just from pledged delegates, just because the diehard Bernie supporters are going to get really infuckingsufferable if she needs the SDs to push her over the top.

I mean, they will be insufferable either way, but this way they'd have less ground to stand on.
Click to expand...
That'd require a mauling in CA and NY. Not gonna happen. An easy defense is "well if Bernie had the majority he'd have to do the same thing"
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
royalan said:
Which is a shame, because they're both toxic to the future of the GOP for the same damn reason.
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Trump's far far worse from their point of view. Cruz is business usual (a solid conservative). Trump's not only the inevitable decline he's also a potential rift between "values" and "economics" that they want nothing to do with. The naked overt racism is problematic but hardly as shattering to their immediate existence.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
he will be mathematically eliminated on the 7th of June. She will have the majority of pledged delegates that day.

I used nates model projections. I guessed territories and DC but they should favor Hillary.

http://DemRace.com/?share=YOGv8uSC
Click to expand...

It's mostly irrelevant, but there's no way in my mind that DC doesn't go like 90/10 Hillary. Everybody there is either a party establishment member or African-American. It's the perfect storm for her.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Plinko said:
Not necessarily so. That new poll shows that 50% of Americans agree with Cruz's ideas about patrols of Muslim neighborhoods and travel bans. Insanity.

I honestly think the biggest thing that will hurt Cruz in the general? That idiotic Value-Added tax that would absolutely destroy the lower- and middle-class incomes.
Click to expand...

I think with the Obama coalition in particular, Cruz would be more poisonous than any GOP nominee before. He is in favor of deporting every illegal immigrant and not letting any of them back in (which is to the right of Trump). That position alone will be enough to lose him the election because of how utterly toxic it is with Latino voters. His insane religiosity will alienate him from any youth voters and any possible Bernie defections that might have gone to Trump. His positions on abortion and PP will also be enough to use it as a wedge issue to bolster Clinton's numbers among women. On top of all that, he lacks any of the crossover appeal of Trump with working class white voters and will alienate them with his tax plan (as you pointed out). There is definitely a reason the Clinton team wants a Cruz matchup more than a Trump one. Cruz bring almost all of the downsides of a Trump nomination without any of the upsides.

Plus, as one GOP operative put it, Cruz is lathered with a thick coat of people repellent.
 
U

User1608

Banned
Kind of depressing to think that Bernie's plan to raise taxes (for good/well-intentioned reasons) has as much of a chance or greater of costing him the GE as Trump's racism.:/
 
H

Holmes

Member
I'm watching the USA episode of Gaycation and it's so awkward because first Ellen Page interviews an evangelical family that goes on music tours across the country and now she's talking to Ted Cruz, and she's really pressing them but we all know the answers they're going to give.

edit: she won't stop pushing Cruz aaahh

edit2: lol he steered it towards Obama and ISIS and when she said "I'd love to talk to Obama on this" he just agreed with her on that and ended it.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
The Republicans had multiple electable candidates. That isn't preventing their voters from picking Trump.
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He's won about 37% of the popular vote so far in the primaries. That's not exactly a mandate from the Republican party.

With so many WTA states, the Republican nomination process is even less democratic than the Dem's superdelegate inanity.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Man, I really don't want to, but every day I get more and more comfortable that the Dems have this easy. I know I shouldn't get complacent, but Sam Wang's got me really believing the Dems could eventake the House as well. I need more pessimism.
 
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