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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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B

Box of Kittens

Banned
superdeluxe said:
Why is clinton so strong In tennessee/Kentucky? Just proxmity to Arkansas?
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The Upland South really didn't like Obama. It was also the part of the country where Obama actually lost ground in 2008 vs. Kerry's performance in 2004. That part of the country was trending away from the Democrats anyway, but Obama's nomination seems to have accelerated that movement.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Holmes said:
Just saw the speech Clinton gave yesterday about Republicans and the Supreme Court.

post-37063-omg-oh-my-god-mommy-gif-could-ZDMt.gif
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Link?
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
B-Dubs said:
He bit a stripper? He bit a stripper? He bit a stripper?

This just keeps getting better and better.



I know how you feel. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and it never does. It's freaking me out.
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That's why I'm convinced Trump can't be the GOP nominee. 20% of my belief is based on the GOP seeing how bad it would be for them, 80% of it is just because Democrats just can't be that lucky. Can they?
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
Macho Madness said:
Something I didn't think of is North Dakota. Will they really go for Bernie when he's so anti-fracking?

Though I guess a lot of the workers don't take permanent residence there.
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The people who would vote for Bernie in North Dakota likely have no connection to the fracking industry and probably believe it's been a net negative for the state, aside from the temporary economic boom (ie. higher crime and sexual violence rates, corruption, etc.).
 
H

Holmes

Member
superdeluxe said:
I think clinton could carry every county in New Jersey
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New Jersey is possible, especially if the white vote doesn't move away from Clinton, or even moves towards her (and there is evidence of this in the closed primaries that have voted so far).

Here is a map of the 2008 New Jersey Democratic primary: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=34&year=2008&elect=1

Clinton "only" won the state by 10%, mostly because African-Americans in Jersey overwhelmingly opted for Obama instead.

Here is a map of New Jersey's African-American population by county: http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/quick-facts/new-jersey/black-population-percentage#map

Obama won 5 counties in New Jersey, 3 of which have a 20%+ African-American population: Essex (41.9%), Union (23.4%) and Mercer (21.1%). He also won Somerset (9.8%) and Hunterdon (only 2.7% - and the closest county in the NJ primary).

It's entirely reasonable to believe Clinton can sweep all of New Jersey's counties in the June 7 closed primary, but assuming she doesn't, the counties she loses will not be the ones she lost in 2008, but will probably come from Southern Jersey. I'm thinking Cape May and Gloucester. But the white vote would have to swing hard against her.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
PPP always overestimates Clinton. They are an establishment dem pollster, after all.

I find it curious that Clinton is refusing to debate. Do her camp consider the risks of being seen as yet again contradictory less damaging than debating Sanders in her "home" state? Interesting.
 
H

Holmes

Member
I should probably point out that there's no evidence of white voters moving away from Clinton in non-Southern closed primaries, excluding Florida.
 
M

Makai

Member
B-Dubs said:
The 500 abarth? Those are nice. I'd settle for one of those, now if only I could afford it and had somewhere to park :lol
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I got the base model - 500 Pop. $13k new, which is pretty cheap. I park on the street and alternate side parking is the dumbest system ever.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Melkr_ said:
PPP always overestimate Clinton. They are an establishment dem pollster, after all.

I find it curious that Clinton is refusing to debate. Do her camp consider the risks of being seen as yet again contradictory less damaging than debating Sanders in her "home" state? Interesting.
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Just see it as repositioning herself towards the generals. The more she butts against Bernie, the further left she has to lean instead of keeping to a moderate tone for generals. We'll see how things pan out in due time. I doubt skipping the debate would do much to hurt her in NYC. Later on down the road eh, we'll see.
 
H

Holmes

Member
NeoXChaos said:
you are going to get that in OR and KY however. OK, NH & WV are semi-closed.
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Well under some loose definitions of the South, Kentucky and West Virginia fall into it. They're definitely Southern/Midwestern hybrids.

And I don't think Clinton will do worse than the 18% margin Obama beat her in Oregon back in 2008. Bookmark this.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Melkr_ said:
PPP always overestimates Clinton. They are an establishment dem pollster, after all.

I find it curious that Clinton is refusing to debate. Do her camp consider the risks of being seen as yet again contradictory less damaging than debating Sanders in her "home" state? Interesting.
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Clinton camp doesn't need to debate, the risk is extremely low because they live in reality and know the delegate math makes winning essentially impossible for Sanders now. So the posts I've seen about her being "worried" to debate or her camp being "afraid" of the damage is hilarious. They've already pivoted to Trump, because they've won this primary season and they know it. They don't care about Sanders anymore except in the most basic form of political politeness, continuing the charade of running the remaining states to officially get over the finish line and put an end to this ruse.

Despite what Sanders folk think, he's no longer really influencing her thinking about what to do in the race. Trump is the influencing factor now.
 
K

Kyosaiga

Banned
Amir0x said:
Clinton camp doesn't need to debate, the risk is extremely low because they live in reality and know the delegate math makes winning essentially impossible for Sanders now. So the posts I've seen about her being "worried" to debate or her camp being "afraid" of the damage is hilarious. They've already pivoted to Trump, because they've won this primary season and they know it. They don't care about Sanders anymore except in the most basic form of political politeness, continuing the charade of running the remaining states to officially get over the finish line and put an end to this ruse.

Despite what Sanders folk think, he's no longer really influencing her thinking about what to do in the race. Trump is the influencing factor now.
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Clearly you've been brainwashed by the MSM!!
 
G

googleplex

Member
SenorArdilla said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxBzlgY-Qm0
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Jesus that was good! This right, is why I'd vote Hillary over Bernie every time. She's not just looking at her own election but constantly stumping for down ticket races. She seem to get the importance over those races and local elections. Bernie and his surrogates have constantly written off the Democratic party as "part of the establishment" and thus part of the problem. It's damned disrespectful to the the millions of its members and the thousands of battles that have taken place to move America in a more progressive direction over the years.
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
Holmes said:
New Jersey is possible, especially if the white vote doesn't move away from Clinton, or even moves towards her (and there is evidence of this in the closed primaries that have voted so far).

Here is a map of the 2008 New Jersey Democratic primary: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=34&year=2008&elect=1

Clinton "only" won the state by 10%, mostly because African-Americans in Jersey overwhelmingly opted for Obama instead.

Here is a map of New Jersey's African-American population by county: http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/quick-facts/new-jersey/black-population-percentage#map

Obama won 5 counties in New Jersey, 3 of which have a 20%+ African-American population: Essex (41.9%), Union (23.4%) and Mercer (21.1%). He also won Somerset (9.8%) and Hunterdon (only 2.7% - and the closest county in the NJ primary).

It's entirely reasonable to believe Clinton can sweep all of New Jersey's counties in the June 7 closed primary, but assuming she doesn't, the counties she loses will not be the ones she lost in 2008, but will probably come from Southern Jersey. I'm thinking Cape May and Gloucester. But the white vote would have to swing hard against her.
Click to expand...


Nice site in that index mundi. Maryland is even more tilted in her favor in regards to AA pops.
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
How do y'all feel about Bernie Sanders supporters paying $15/hr to people willing to come to protest at Trump rallies? There were ads on craigslist for it.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
I can't figure out if FOXNews is criticizing the government because they agree with Apple to not break the phone or if they're critical of the government because they hate Obama government?
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Macho Madness said:
CevR_rQWsAAo3HE.jpg:large
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This would be like a 10 minute drive for me... No, it's not worth my sanity. Random trivia: It's across the street from the venue where Sanders drew 5000+ last summer. This place could hold 1000 max, standing room only, very generously. No clue why his dumb ass would come anywhere near this city.
 
L

LyleLanley

Banned
I'm not exactly sure what Trump is trying to do here.

@realDonaldTrump said:
Victory press conference was over.
Why is she allowed to grab me and shout questions? Can I press charges?
CevNk7MWIAQfPM_.jpg
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@realDonaldTrump said:
Why is this reporter touching me as I leave news conference? What is in her hand??
zo1akC8.png
tE41OHY.png
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A

ampere

Member
Holmes said:
Just saw the speech Clinton gave yesterday about Republicans and the Supreme Court.
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This should be the default answer anytime someone complains about Arizona. Hillary is addressing the core issue by talking about the importance of the Supreme Court.

Wilsongt said:
I can't figure out if FOXNews is criticizing the government because they agree with Apple to not break the phone or if they're critical of the government because they hate Obama government?
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Their product is anger and discontent, the reason doesn't matter much
 
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